
Citation: Shuyang Xue, Meili Li, Junling Ma, Jia Li. Sex-structured wild and sterile mosquito population models with different release strategies[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2019, 16(3): 1313-1333. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2019064
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Mosquito-borne diseases, such as malaria [24] and dengue fever [31], have become a considerable public health concern all over the world. These diseases are transmitted between human beings by blood-feeding mosquitoes. According to the latest World Malaria Report [38] released in November 2017, there were 216 million cases of malaria in 2016, up from 211 million cases in 2015, and estimated 445,000 people died in 2016 due to this mosquito-borne disease. An effective way to control the spread of diseases is to control or reduce mosquitoes. Among control measures, the sterile insect technique (SIT) has proven to be an important and environmentally-friendly way to control mosquito-borne diseases. Knipling [20,21,22] proposed control measures by subjecting insects to gamma radiation in order to block reproduction and sterilize them, and then releasing them into the wild population. The released insects are preferably male, because female mosquitoes may damage crops by laying eggs or take blood from humans. A wild female mosquito that mates with a sterile male mosquito will either not reproduce, or produce eggs but the eggs will not hatch, thus reducing the size of the next generation mosquito population. Although SIT has been conducted in the laboratories, questions such as the assessment of the effects of releasing sterile mosquitoes into the field of wild mosquito populations are still keeping challenging [15,22,34,39].
To gain insight into such challenging questions, mathematical models considering the sterile mosquitoes [3,4,5,6,7,9,13,15,17,24,26,28,36] are adopted more and more when it comes to study in population dynamics or epidemiology. In particular, dynamics of the interactive wild and sterile mosquitoes with different strategies of releasing sterile mosquitoes have been explored in several studies such as [9,26,27,28]. Cai et al. [9] formulated continuous-time mathematical models for the interactive dynamics of the wild and sterile mosquitoes with different releasing strategies and the mosquito population had been assumed to be homogeneous without distinguishing their gender. Moreover, all mosquitoes go through four distinct stages (e.g., egg, pupa, larva, and adult) during their whole lifetime. The first three stages occur in water, but the adult are active in the air. Only the female mosquitoes bite and feed on the blood of human beings or other animals. Li et al. [27] divided the mosquito population into only two classes (the larvae and the adult) and formulated stage-structured mosquito population models with different strategies for releasing the sterile mosquitoes. Soon afterwards, Li [26] revised the models studied in [27] and formulated new models which considered the density dependence on the newborns survivals. In recent years, several interesting mathematical models have also been developed to investigate the dynamics of sterile mosquitoes, for instance, the discrete models in [29], the delayed models in [8], and the stage-structured discrete models in [30]. Discrete-time models for releases of sterile mosquitoes with Beverton-Holt-type of survivability were formulated by Y. Li and J. Li in [29]. In these discrete models, complexity in fact may not be created by the interaction of the wild and sterile mosquitoes but is from the Ricker type nonlinearity [28]. A similar technique by utilizing bacterial symbiont Wolbachia has also been applied to prevent and control Dengue Fever and Zika transmissions. Mathematical models, including those based on delay differential equations [19,40], have been formulated recently to study the mosquito suppression dynamics. While these existing studies in the literature focused on applications of SIT to mosquitoes control have made significant progress to help us answer those challenging questions, most of them have assumed homogeneous populations or populations with stage structures without distinguishing the genders of mosquitoes.
Because the next generations of mosquitoes are produced by sexual reproduction and we only release sterile male mosquitoes into the environment, sex structure needs to be considered in mathematical models. Esteva et al. [15] proposed a sex-structured model to assess the effectiveness of SIT applied to the Aedes aegypti mosquito population. They divided the life cycle of an insect into two stages: the immature (eggs, larvae and pupae) and the adult (females before mating, mating fertilized females, mating unfertilized females, males). For the disadvantages of that study, theoretical analysis for the global asymptotic stability of the equilibria was not carried out. Recently, a sex-structured model was developed for a mosquito population infected with Wolbachia [16]. The model captured the key effects of Wolbachia infection including cytoplasmic incompatibility and male killing. The conditions for the existence and local stability of equilibria, including boundary equilibria, were obtained. As the progress on sexual structure mosquitoes populations has been made in those studies, the focus was on other control measures than SIT, and the transmission mechanism for SIT is different.
In this paper, we include sexual structure in models for interactive wild and sterile mosquitoes following the line in [9,26], and concentrate on the dynamics of the sex-structured models in the absence or presence of sterile mosquitoes and explore the impact of different strategies of releasing sterile mosquitoes on the model dynamics. We first consider the mosquito population with distinguishing male and female individuals in the absence of sterile mosquitoes, and the cases with or without Allee effects [1,12] are both considered in the model formulation in Section 2. Complete mathematical analysis is performed. Then, we formulate a two-sex model in the presence of sterile mosquitoes, where the release rate of sterile mosquitoes is constant in Section 3. To have a more optimal and economically effective strategy [2,32] in an area where the population size of wild mosquitoes is relatively small, we establish a model with the release rate of sterile mosquitoes proportional to the population size of the wild male mosquitoes in Section 4. Since it is possibly difficult for mosquitoes to find mates in an area with small population size, we incorporate the Allee effects in the model formulation. We provide complete mathematical analysis and numerical simulations to show the complexity of the model dynamics as well. We finally give brief discussions in Section 5.
We first consider, in the absence of sterile mosquitoes, two different situations where the wild mosquito population size is sufficiently large or relatively small so that the Allee effects need to be included or not.
Let F and M be the wild female and male mosquito populations. If no Allee effect is included, the model equations are given by
F′= αCF(1−F+MK)−μFF,M′= (1−α)CF(1−F+MK)−μMM. | (2.1) |
where α is the fraction of female newborns, C is the number of wild offspring produced per unit time, per female mosquito through all mating [2,10,14,18,35,37], and μF and μM are the deaths rates of the wild female and male mosquito respectively. Notice that the M-axis is an invariant set of system (2.1). Then the set
Ω1:={(F,M):0≤F+M≤K} |
is a positively invariant and attracting set for the flows of (2.1) in the nonnegative quadrant.
The origin is an equilibrium, and the Jacobian matrix of system (2.1) at the origin is
(αC−μF0⋅−μM)=(μF(r0−1)0⋅−μM), |
where
r0:=αCμF | (2.2) |
is the intrinsic growth rate, which is the difference between an average birth rate and an average death rate. As the mosquito population persistently exists in nature, we assume r0>1. Under this assumption, it is easy to prove that the origin is unstable.
We next consider positive equilibria of system (2.1) which we denote as (F∗,M∗). A positive equilibrium satisfies
αC(1−F∗+M∗K)=μF, (1−α)CF∗(1−F∗+M∗K)=μMM∗. | (2.3) |
It follows from (2.3) that
F∗=αμM(1−α)μFM∗:=PM∗. | (2.4) |
Substituting (2.4) into (2.3), we have
F∗=PM∗,M∗=(αCμF−1)KμFαC(1+P)=(r0−1)KμFαC(1+P). | (2.5) |
Then there exists a unique positive equilibrium E∗0:=(F∗,M∗) if and only if r0>1.
The Jacobian matrix at E∗0 has the form
J0:=(−αCKF∗−αCKF∗(1−α)C(1−2F∗+M∗K)−(1−α)CKF∗−μM). |
Then
trJ0=−CKF∗−μM<0, |
and
detJ0=αCKF∗((1−α)C(1−F∗+M∗K)+μM)>0, |
Thus E∗0 is locally asymptotically stable.
Write the right-hand side of system (2.1) as f1 and f2, respectively. Then it follows from
∂∂F(f1F)+∂∂M(f2F)<0, |
for F>0 and M>0, that system (2.1) has no closed orbits.
In summary, we have the following results.
Theorem 2.1. For the system (2.1), the origin (0,0) is globally asymptotically stable if r0≤1 and unstable if r0>1. There exists a unique positive equilibrium E∗0 given by (2.5) if and only if r0>1 and this unique positive equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if it exists.
We now incorporate the Allee effect [33] to account for the difficulty and stochasticity of finding mates when the population of mosquitoes is small. Then we consider the following model equations
F′= αCFMγ+M(1−F+MK)−μFF,M′= (1−α)CFMγ+M(1−F+MK)−μMM, | (2.6) |
where γ>0 is a parameter to characterize the Allee effects.
Clearly, set Ω1 is also a positively invariant and attracting set for the flows of (2.6) in the nonnegative quadrant.
The origin (0,0) is an equilibrium and the eigenvalues of the Jacobian at it are −μF and −μM. Thus it is always locally asymptotically stable.
We then investigate the existence of positive equilibria which satisfy
αCMγ+M(1−F+MK)=μF,(1−α)CFγ+M(1−F+MK)=μM. | (2.7) |
Similarly as in (2.4), we have F=PM. Substituting it into the first equation in (2.7), we have
αCM(K−(1+P)M)=μFK(γ+M), | (2.8) |
or, equivalently, the following quadratic equation
αC(1+P)M2+K(μF−αC)M+μFKγ=0. | (2.9) |
Then there exists no, one positive equilibrium (F,M)=(PM,M) with
M=K(αC−μF)2αC(1+P), |
or two positive equilibria (PM−,M−) and (PM+,M+) where
M∓= K(αC−μF)∓√Δ2αC(1+P) | (2.10) |
with
Δ:=K2(μF−αC)2−4αCμFKγ(1+P), | (2.11) |
if Δ<0, Δ=0, or Δ>0, respectively.
We next determine the stability of the positive equilibria as follows.
The Jacobian matrix of system (2.6) at an equilibrium has the form
J1:=(−αCFMK(γ+M)μFγFM(γ+M−αCFMK(γ+M)μMMF−(1−α)CFMK(γ+M)−μMMγ+M−(1−α)CFMK(γ+M)). | (2.12) |
It is clear that trJ1<0 and
detJ1= αCμMFM2K(γ+M)2+α(1−α)C2F2M2K2(γ+M)2 −μFμMγγ+M+αCμMM2K(γ+M)+(1−α)CμFγF2K(γ+M)2−α(1−α)C2F2M2K2(γ+M)2= αCμMFM2K(γ+M)2−μFμMγγ+M+αCμMM2K(γ+M)+(1−α)CμFγF2K(γ+M)2, |
that is,
(K(γ+M)2)detJ1= αCμMFM2+(1−α)CμFγF2+(αCμMM2−KμFμMγ)(γ+M)= αCμMPM3+(1−α)CμFγP2M2+αCμMM3 +αCμMγM2−μFγK(γ+M)μM. |
It then follows from (2.8) that
(K(γ+M)2)detJ1= αCμM(1+P)M3+Cγ((1−α)μFP2+αμM)M2 −αCγM(K−(1+P)M)μM, |
that is,
K(γ+M)2CMdetJ1= αμM(1+P)M2+γ((1−α)μFP2+αμM+αμM(1+P))M −αμMγK. | (2.13) |
Write the right-hand side of (2.13) as quadratic function H(M). Then the unique positive root of H(M) is
Mc:= √γ2((1−α)μFP2+αμM+αμM(1+P))2+4α2μ2Mγ(1+P)K2αμM(1+P) −γ((1−α)μFP2+αμM+αμM(1+P))2αμM(1+P). | (2.14) |
It follows from
P=αμM(1−α)μF |
that
(1−α)μFP2 +αμM+αμM(1+P)=αμMP+αμM+αμM(1+P) =2αμM(1+P). | (2.15) |
Thus
γ2((1−α)μFP2+αμM+μMα(1+P))2+4α2μ2Mγ(1+P)K =γ2(2αμM(1+P))2+4α2μ2Mγ(1+P)K =(2αμM)2γ(1+P)(γ(1+P)+K), | (2.16) |
and hence
Mc=√γ(1+P)(γ(1+P)+K)1+P−γ=√γ(γ+K1+P)−γ. | (2.17) |
Suppose Δ>0 such that there exist two positive equilibria M∓. Notice that H(0)=−αμMK<0 and H(Mc)=0. If M−<Mc and M+>Mc, and thus
H(M−)=K(γ+M−)2CM−detJ1|M−<0, H(M+)=K(γ+M+)2CM+detJ1|M+>0, |
then equilibrium (PM−,M−) is unstable and (PM+,M+) is locally asymptotically stable.
To this end, we first consider
αC(1+P)(M−−Mc)(M+−Mc)=Q(Mc). | (2.18) |
Then, it is clear that to show M−<Mc and M+>Mc is equivalent to show Q(Mc)<0.
It follows from (2.9) that
Q(Mc)= αC(1+P)M2c+K(μF−αC)Mc+μFKγ= αC(1+P)(√γ(γ+K1+P)−γ)2 +K(μF−αC)(√γ(γ+K1+P)−γ)+μFKγ= αC(1+P)(γ(2γ+K1+P)−2√γ(γ+K1+P)) +K(μF−αC)(√γ(γ+K1+P)−γ)+μFKγ= 2αC(1+P)γ2+2αCKγ−2αC(1+P)γ√γ(γ+K1+P) +K(μF−αC)√γ(γ+K1+P). |
Thus Q(Mc)<0 if and only if
2αCγ((1+P)γ+K)<(2αC(1+P)γ+K(αC−μF))√γ(γ+K1+P). | (2.19) |
By squaring both sides of (2.19), it is equivalent to
(1+P)(2αC)2γ2((1+P)γ+K)2<(2αC(1+P)γ+K(αC−μF))2γ(1+P)γ+K), |
which leads to
(1+P)(2αC)2γ((1+P)γ+K)<(2αC(1+P)γ+K(αC−μF))2, |
that is,
(2αC)2 (1+P)2γ2+(2αC)2(1+P)Kγ<(2αC(1+P)γ+K(αC−μF))2= (2αC(1+P)γ)2+(2αC)2(1+P)Kγ−4αC(1+P)γKμF+K2(αC−μF)2, |
or
0<−4αC(1+P)γKμF+K2(αC−μF)2=Δ. |
Hence, if Δ>0 such that there exist two positive equilibria M∓, equilibrium (PM−,M−) is unstable and (PM+,M+) is locally asymptotically stable.
Moreover, write the right-hand side of system (2.6) as g1 and g2, respectively, and D:=γ+MFM for FM>0. Then it follows from
∂(g1D)∂F+∂(g2D)∂M<0, |
for F>0 and M>0, that system (2.6) has no closed orbits.
The existence and stability of all equilibria of system (2.6) can be summarized as follows.
Theorem 2.2. For system (2.6) with Allee effects, we have the following results with Δ given in (2.11).
1. System (2.6) has no closed orbits.
2. If Δ<0, there exists no positive equilibrium and the origin (0,0) is globally asymptotically stable.
3. If Δ=0, there exists one positive equilibrium (F,M)=(PM,M) which is an unstable saddle-node and the origin (0,0) is locally asymptotically stable.
4. If Δ>0, there exist two positive equilibria (PM−,M−) and (PM+,M+) where M∓ are given in (2.10). The origin (0,0) is locally asymptotically stable, equilibrium (PM−,M−) is unstable and equilibrium (PM+,M+) is locally asymptotically stable.
Let ˜M be the sterile mosquito population and μ2 be the death rate of the sterile mosquitoes. We now assume that sterile mosquitoes are released constantly into the wild mosquito field. Since, in this case, mosquitoes should always be able to find mates, Allee effects need not be included. Then the model equations for the wild mosquitoes are based on (2.1) and the interactive dynamics are governed by the system
F′= αCFMM+β˜M(1−F+MK)−μFF,M′= (1−α)CFMM+β˜M(1−F+MK)−μMM,˜M′= b−μ2˜M, | (3.1) |
where β measures the competition between wild and sterile male mosquitoes for female mates.
The equation for ˜M′ is decoupled from the first two equations in (3.1) and it is clear that limt→∞˜M=bμ2:=˜M0. Then since the F- and M-axes both are an invariant set of system (3.1), the planar set
Ω2:={(F,M,˜M):0≤F+M≤K,˜M=˜M0} |
is a positively invariant and attracting set for the flows of (3.1) in the nonnegative octant. Moreover, write the right-hand sides of the first two equations in (3.1) as h1 and h2, respectively. Then it follows from
∂(h1L)∂F+∂(h2L)∂M=−αCK(M+β˜M)−(1−α)C(M+β˜M)2(1−F+MK)−(1−α)CK(M+β˜M)<0, |
where L=1FM, that system (3.1) has no closed orbits in the interior of Ω2.
System (2.6) has a boundary equilibrium E0:=(0,0,˜M0) with ˜M0:=b/μ2, and the eigenvalues of the Jacobian at E0 are −μF, −μM, and −μ2. Thus boundary equilibrium E0 is always locally asymptotically stable.
We then investigate the existence of positive equilibria which satisfy
αCMM+β˜M(1−F+MK)=μF, (1−α)CFM+β˜M(1−F+MK)=μM, b=μ2˜M. | (3.2) |
At a positive equilibrium, ˜M=˜M0. Substituting it into the first two equations in (3.2) and letting γ=β˜M0 in system (2.7), we can immediately obtain, from (2.11), the existence threshold
Δc=K2(μF−αC)2−4αCμFKβ˜M0(1+P)=K2(μF−αC)2−4αCμFKβ(1+P)bμ2, |
and then define the threshold value for the sterile mosquito release rate as
bc:=K2(μF−αC)2μ24αCμFKβ(1+P)=K(μF−αC)2μ2(1−α)4αCβ(αμM+(1−α)μF). | (3.3) |
Thus there exists no, one positive equilibrium (F,M,˜M0)=(PMc,Mc,˜M0) where
Mc=K(αC−μF)2αC(1+P), |
or two positive equilibria E−c:=(PM−c,M−c,˜M0) and E+c:=(PM+c,M+c,˜M0) where
M∓c= K(αC−μF)∓2√αCμFKβ(1+P)μ2√bc−b2αC(1+P)= Kμ2(αC−μF)∓2√αCμFμ2Kβ(1+P)(bc−b)2αCμ2(1+P), | (3.4) |
if b>bc, b=bc, or b<bc, respectively.
In the case of b>bc, there is no positive equilibrium and then the only boundary equilibrium E0 is globally asymptotically stable. If b<bc, because of the attractability of region Ω2, it follows again from Section 2.2 that equilibrium E−c is unstable and E+c is locally asymptotically stable. In summary, we have the following results.
Theorem 3.1. Define threshold bc in (3.3) for the releases of sterile mosquitoes for system (3.1). Then
1. System (3.1) has no closed orbits.
2. If b>bc, there is no positive equilibrium and the boundary equilibrium E0 is globally asymptotically stable.
3. If b=bc, there is one positive equilibrium (F,M,˜M) which is an unstable saddle-node, and the boundary equilibrium E0 is locally asymptotically stable.
4. If b<bc, there are two positive equilibrium E−c and E+c. Equilibrium E−c is unstable and E+c is locally asymptotically stable.
To confirm our theoretical results, a numerical example for the constant release of sterile mosquitoes is given below.
Example 1. Parameters are given as
α=0.5,C=10,μF=0.5,μM=0.5,μ2=0.6,K=6,β=0.5 | (3.5) |
such that the release threshold is bc=7.29. For b=8>bc, there exists no positive equilibrium. All solutions approach boundary equilibrium E0=(0,0,13.33), as shown in the upper left figure in Figure 1. For b=7<bc, there exist two positive equilibria E−c=(1.0902,1.0902,11.67) and E+c=(1.6098,1.6098,11.67). Equilibrium E−c is an unstable saddle and E+c is a stable node. Solutions approach either the boundary equilibrium or E+c depending on their initial values, as shown in the upper right figure in Figure 1. (The trajectories versus time t are also provided in the lower figures in Figure 1.) The wild mosquitoes may be wiped out, or the two types of mosquitoes may coexist, depending on the initial sizes of the wild and sterile mosquitoes in this case.
In this section, we assume that the release rate of sterile mosquitoes is proportional to the wild male mosquito population size. Considering the sterile mosquitoes compete with the wild male mosquitoes and the sex ratio remains a constant at the positive equilibria, we establish the model with the release rate proportional to only the wild male mosquito population size, which will have little bearing on the result. Moreover, as stated in [2], the effectiveness of SIT is related to the ratio of released sterile males to wild fertile males. In the case where both the wild mosquito population density and the initial sterile mosquito population density are small, mosquitoes may have difficulty finding mates. Then, Allee effects are included in the model, and the model equations for the wild mosquitoes are based on (2.6) and the interactive dynamics are governed by the following system:
F′= αCFM1+M+β˜M(1−F+MK)−μFF,M′= (1−α)CFM1+M+β˜M(1−F+MK)−μMM,˜M′= bM−μ2˜M, | (4.1) |
where, similarly, β measures the competition between wild and sterile male mosquitoes for female mates.
In the nonnegative octant, it is clear that the M˜M- and F˜M- planes are both an invariant set of system (4.1). On the FM- plane, ˜M′≥0. Hence the set
Ω3:={(F,M,˜M):0≤F+M≤K, 0≤˜M≤bKμ2} |
is a positively invariant and attracting set for the flows of (4.1) in the nonnegative octant.
System (4.1) now has the origin (0,0,0) as a trivial equilibrium and the eigenvalues of the Jacobian at it are −μF, −μM, and −μ2. Thus the origin (0,0,0) is always locally asymptotically stable. It follows from the third equation in system (4.1) that if M=0, then ˜M=0 and F=0; if ˜M=0, then M=0 and F=0; and if F=0, then M=0 and ˜M=0. Hence there exists no boundary equilibrium for system (4.1).
We then investigate the existence of positive equilibria which satisfy
αCM1+M+β˜M(1−F+MK)=μF,(1−α)CF1+M+β˜M(1−F+MK)=μM,˜M=bMμ2. | (4.2) |
Substituting ˜M into the first two equations in (4.2), we have
αCM1+(1+bβμ2)M(1−F+MK)=μF,(1−α)CF1+(1+bβμ2)M(1−F+MK)=μM. | (4.3) |
Let
ˉγ=μ2μ2+bβ,ˉC:=Cˉγ. |
Then system (4.3) becomes
αˉCMˉγ+M(1−F+MK)=μF,(1−α)ˉCFˉγ+M(1−F+MK)=μM. | (4.4) |
Based on the results of system (2.7) and equation (2.9), the corresponding quadratic equation is
αˉC(1+P)M2+K(μF−αˉC)M+μFKˉγ=0, | (4.5) |
and the threshold value of sterile mosquito releases has the form
Δp= K2(αˉC−μF)2−4αˉCμFKˉγ(1+P)= K2(αCμ2μ2+bβ−μF)2−4αCμFK(μ2μ2+bβ)2αμM+(1−α)μF(1−α)μF. | (4.6) |
Solving for b>0 in (4.6), we then define the threshold value for the sterile mosquito per capita release rate for system (4.1) as
bp:=μ2(αC−μF)√K(1−α)−2√αC(αμM+(1−α)μF)βμF√K(1−α), | (4.7) |
such that there exists no, one positive equilibrium E∗=(F∗,M∗,bμ2M∗) where
M∗=K(αˉC−μF)2αˉC(1+P)=K(αCˉγ−μF)2αCˉγ(1+P)=K(αC−μF(1+βbμ2))2αC(1+P), |
or two positive equilibria E−p:=(PM−p,M−p,bμ2M−p) and E+p:=(PM+p,M+p,bμ2M+p) where
M∓p=K(αˉC−μF)∓√K2(αˉC−μF)2−4αˉC(1+P)μFKˉγ2αˉC(1+P)=K(αC−μF(1+βbμ2))∓√K2(αC−μF(1+βbμ2))2−4αC(1+P)μFK2αC(1+P), | (4.8) |
if b>bp, b=bp, or b<bp, respectively.
We next determine the stability of the positive equilibria as follows.
The Jacobian matrix of system (4.1) at an equilibrium has the form
J2:=(−αCFMK(1+M+β˜M0)μF(1+β˜M0)FM(1+M+β˜M0)−αCFMK(1+M+β˜M0)−βμFF1+M+β˜M0μMMF−(1−α)CFMK(1+M+β˜M0)−μMM1+M+β˜M0−(1−α)CFMK(1+M+˜M0)−βμMM1+M+β˜M00b−μ2). | (4.9) |
It is clear that trJ2<0. We then compute the determinant of detJ2.
Simple algebra yields
detJ2=|−α1−α⋅μMMFμF(1+β˜M0)FM(1+M+β˜M0)+α1−αpha⋅μMM1+M+β˜M00μMMF−(1−α)CFMK(1+M+β˜M0)−μMM1+M+β˜M0−(1−α)CFMK(1+M+β˜M0)−βMμM1+M+β˜M00b−μ2|= |−μFα1−αμM0μMMF−(1−α)CFMK(1+M+β˜M0)−μMM1+M+β˜M0−(1−α)CFMK(1+M+β˜M0)−βMμM1+M+β˜M00b−μ2|. | (4.10) |
Writing
J21:= μMMF−(1−α)CFMK(1+M+β˜M0),J22:= −μMM1+M+β˜M0−(1−α)CFMK(1+M+β˜M0),J23:= −βMμM1+M+β˜M0, |
we have
detJ2= |−μFμFP0J21J22J230b−μ2|= |−μF00J21J22+PJ21J230b−μ2|=μFμ2(J22+PJ21+bμ2J23)=μFμ2(J22+PJ21)+bμFJ23. | (4.11) |
By further writing D:=1+M+β˜M0, we have
J22+PJ21=−μMMD−(1−α)CFMKD+μM−P(1−α)CFMKD=μM(1−MD)−(1−α)CFMKD−P(1−α)CFMKD=μM1+β˜M0D−(1+P)(1−α)CPM2KD=μM1+β˜M0D−(1−α)PKDC(1+P)M2. | (4.12) |
It follows from (4.5) that
ˉC(1+P)M2=1α(−μFKˉγ−K(μF−αˉC)M), |
that is,
C(1+P)M2=−Kα(μF+(μFˉγ−αC)M). | (4.13) |
Substituting (4.13) into (4.12) yields
J22+PJ21=μM1+β˜M0D+(1−α)PDα(μF+(μFˉγ−αC)M)=μM1+β˜M0D+μMDμF(μF+(μFˉγ−αC)M)=μMD(2+(bβμ2+1ˉγ−αCμF)M)=μMD(2+(1+2bβμ2−αCμF)M), | (4.14) |
and then substituting (4.14) into (4.11), we arrive at
detJ2=μFμMμ2D(2+(1+2bβμ2−αCμF)M)−βbμFμMDM=μFμMμ2D(2+(1+2bβμ2−αCμF)M−βbμ2M)=μFμMμ2D(2−(αCμF−(1+bβμ2))M)=μFμMμ2D(2−(αCμF−1ˉγ)M). | (4.15) |
Suppose b<bp such that there exist two positive equilibria. Then from (4.8), we can rewrite M∓p as
M∓p=B∓√B2−4AC2A, |
where A:=αˉC(1+P)>0, B:=K(αˉC−μF)>0, and C:=μFKˉγ>0 for short, and B2>4AC from b<bp. Then
2− (αCμF−1ˉγ)M∓p=2−αˉC−μFμFˉγM∓p=2−BCM∓p=1C(2C−BM∓p)=1C(2C−BB∓√B2−4AC2A)=12AC(4AC−B2±B√B2−4AC)=√B2−4AC2AC(±B−√B2−4AC). | (4.16) |
Hence
detJ2|E−p=μFμMμ2D√B2−4AC2AC(B−√B2−4AC)>0, |
and
detJ2|E+p=μFμMμ2D√B2−4AC2AC(−B−√B2−4AC)<0. |
An immediate conclusion is that the positive equilibrium E−p is unstable.
For the stability of E+p, we employ the Routh-Hurwitz stability criterion as follows.
Let the characteristic polynomial of J2 be
P(λ)=λ3+a1(M)λ2+a2(M)λ+a3(M). |
Straight calculations yield
a1(M)=−trJ2=−J11+μ2−J22,a2(M)=3∑i=1Di=−μFJ22−μFPJ21−μ2J22−bJ23−J11μ2,a3(M)=−detJ2=−μFμ2(J22+PJ21+bμ2J23), | (4.17) |
where Di, i=1,2,3, are the 2×2 principal minors of J2, and we write J11=−αCFMKD.
It is clear that a1(M+p)>0 and we have previously shown a3(M)>0. Thus the stability of E+p is determined by whether a1(M+p)a2(M+p)>a3(M+p). We write
a2(M)=−μ2(J11+J22)−(μF(J22+PJ21+1μ2bJ23)+(1−μFμ2)bJ23)=−μ2(J11+J22)+1μ2a3(M)−(1−μFμ2)bJ23 | (4.18) |
and H(M)=a1(M)a2(M)−a3(M). Then it follows from J11<0,J22<0,J23<0,a1(M+p)>0, and a3(M+p)>0 that if we assume μ2≥μF,
H(M+p)=−μ2(J11+J22)a1(M+p)−J11+J22μ2a3(M+p)−(μ2−μF)bJ23μ2a1(M+p)>0. | (4.19) |
Therefore, positive equilibrium E+p is locally asymptotically stable under the assumption of μ2≥μF.
In summary, we have the following results.
Theorem 4.1. Define the threshold bp in (4.7) for the release of sterile mosquitoes for system (4.1). Then
1. If b>bp, there is no positive equilibrium and the origin (0,0,0) is globally asymptotically stable.
2. If b=bp, there exists one positive equilibrium E∗ which is unstable, and the origin (0,0,0) is locally asymptotically stable.
3. If b<bp, there exist two positive equilibrium E−p and E+p. Equilibrium E−p is always an unstable saddle and E+p is locally asymptotically stable under the assumption of μ2≥μF.
Notice that the model dynamics become more complex when μ2<μF. Equilibrium E−p is still always an unstable saddle, but E+p is no longer necessarily locally asymptotically stable. Even though we have been unable to find stable or unstable closed orbits when E+p is unstable, solutions initially close to it can eventually approach the origin spirally. Example 2 demonstrates the dynamical complexity of system (4.1).
Example 2. Parameters are given as
α=0.4,C=10,μF=0.2,μM=0.2,μ2=0.16,K=20,β=0.3, | (4.20) |
so that the release threshold is bp=8.7563. For b=8.3<bp, there exist two positive equilibria E−p=(0.2336,0.3505,18.1801) and E+p=(1.1414,1.7120,88.8121). Equilibrium E−p is an unstable saddle and E+p is a stable spiral. Solutions approach either the origin or E+p oscillatorily, as shown in the left figure in Figure 2. However, for b=8.448, which is still less than bp, although there still exist two positive equilibria E−p=(0.2676,0.4015,21.1972) and E+p=(0.9964,1.4945,78.9116) and equilibrium E−p is still an unstable saddle, E+p becomes an unstable spiral. Solutions all approach the origin as shown in the right figure in Figure 2.
We formulated sex-structured models for interactive wild and sterile mosquitoes, following [9,26], and studied the models dynamics with different sterile mosquito release strategies. We analyzed models without sterile mosquitoes, including a model with Allee effect, as well as models with male sterile mosquitoes that are released at a constant rate or a rate that is proportional to the wild male mosquitoes. We then studied the dynamics of interactive wild and sterile mosquitoes, more specifically, the existence and stability of all equilibria. We established threshold values, bc and bp, for the two model systems (3.1) and (4.1), respectively. We showed that, for the case of constant releases, if the release rate is greater than the threshold, that is, b>bc, there exists no positive equilibrium and the boundary equilibrium where the two components for the wild mosquitoes are both zero and the component for the sterile mosquitoes is positive, is globally asymptotically stable. Thus, all wild mosquitoes will be wiped out eventually. If, on the other hand, b<bc, the boundary equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable and there exist two positive equilibria, one of which is unstable and the other is locally asymptotically stable. Either all wild mosquitoes will go extinct or the two types of mosquitoes coexist, depending on their initial values. There is no closed orbit for the model system with constant releases.
The dynamics for the releases proportional to the size of wild male mosquitoes are relatively similar to those of constant releases, except that the origin (0,0,0) is an equilibrium and there is no boundary equilibrium. If b>bp, there exists no positive equilibrium and the origin is globally asymptotically stable. If b<bp, the origin is locally asymptotically sable and there exist two positive equilibria. One of the two positive equilibria is always unstable and the other can be either locally asymptotically stable or unstable. If it is locally asymptotically stable, solutions approach either the origin or the stable positive equilibrium. Thus, either all mosquitoes go extinct eventually or the two types of mosquitoes coexist, depending on their initial sizes. If the other positive equilibrium is unstable, on the other hand, all the wild female and male mosquitoes are eventually wiped out. Note that this unstable positive equilibrium can be a spiral and there might possibly exist closed orbits. However, we unfortunately haven't been able to find any although we are unable to prove their nonexistence yet.
We considered, using parameter β, the competition between wild and sterile male mosquitoes for their wild female mates in this study. It plays a role in determining the release thresholds and the wild mosquito components when the two types of mosquitoes coexist. According to Davis et al. [11] radio-sterilized male mosquitoes are not as competitive as normal males in mating with normal females. (See also [23].) So, increasing the mating competitiveness of sterilized male mosquitoes is essential to achieve sterility in a substantial part of the total population. It follows from the formulas for the thresholds in (3.3) and (4.7), the two thresholds are proportional to the reciprocal of β such that they are reduced as β increases. Following from the formulas for the wild mosquito components at the stable positive equilibria for the constant releases of sterile mosquitoes in (3.4), we have
αCμFμ2Kβ(1+P)(bc−b)=K1−K2β, |
and then
M+c=A1+A2√K1−K2β, |
where A1, A2, K1 and K2 are all positive constants, independent of β. Hence, M+c, if exists, decreases as β increases. Similarly, we can also show that M+p, if exists, decreases linearly as β increases. Thus, as the sterile male mosquitoes are more capable to compete for female wild mates, the required release thresholds of sterile mosquitoes are reduced and, if the number of releases is less than the threshold such that the wild mosquitoes still exist, the wild components for the wild mosquitoes at the stable positive equilibria are reduced too for both of the two release strategies. Therefore, it seems that more attention needs to be given to increasing the competitiveness of sterile mosquitoes before they are released.
We notice that the dynamics of the sexual-structured model systems with different strategies of releases investigated in this paper are similar to the dynamics of the model systems in [26] where all mosquitoes are assumed homogeneous without distinguishing their gender. That is, based on the threshold values of releases and under certain other conditions, there exist two positive equilibria, one of which is unstable and one of which is locally asymptotically stable for both of the two model systems. System (3) has a boundary equilibrium (0,0,g0) and system (4) has the trivial equilibrium (0,0,0) other than the positive equilibria. Solutions approach either the boundary (or the trivial) equilibrium or the stable positive equilibrium, depending on their initial values. Nevertheless, the analysis is more difficult for the three-dimensional systems in this paper than the two-dimensional systems in [26]. As is illustrated above, the inclusion of the mosquitoes' sexual structure is necessary from the biology of mosquitoes and the modeling perspective. On the other hand, we have also learned once more from this study, as has been well described in many other existing studies as well, that simplified models may not necessarily lose key features that the more complicated models exhibit. Therefore, the assumption of homogeneous populations are valid in many biological situations and we may start with relatively simple models when we work on real world problems.
We would like to finally point out that while the studies of the dynamics of sex-structured mosquitoes models with different releasing strategies such as the constant releases and the proportional release of the sterile male mosquito population are important, any efforts directed at controlling mosquitoes to prevent the spread of diseases is desirable. In the future, we will pay more attention on the dynamics of mosquitoes populations combined with the population evolution induced by the biological control.
This research was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.11771075) (ML) and Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council Canada (JM). The authors appreciate two anonymous referees for their carefully reading and valuable comments and suggestions.
The authors declare no conflict of interest in this paper.
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