1.
Introduction
Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) gradually destroys various types of blood cells, significantly weakening the immune system. Although antiretroviral drugs exist, their effectiveness is often limited, and without treatment, the virus can progress to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). HIV infections are caused by one of two retroviruses: HIV-1 or HIV-2. HIV-1 is the predominant cause of HIV infections globally, while HIV-2 is more common in West Africa. Another retrovirus, human T-lymphotropic virus (HTLV), although less prevalent, can also cause severe illness. HIV primarily targets and gradually depletes CD4+ lymphocytes, a type of white blood cell critical to the body's defense against foreign cells, infections, and cancer. As HIV reduces these cells, the immune system becomes increasingly vulnerable to a wide range of opportunistic infections. Consequently, the majority of complications associated with HIV, including mortality, result from these secondary infections rather than the HIV infection itself.
Mathematical modeling plays a crucial role in understanding infectious diseases like HIV and predicting their long-term behavior. By simulating the evolution of key variables, these models provide valuable insights into the dynamics of the disease. In this context, the model serves as a complementary tool, augmenting our understanding of the complex interactions within the system rather than attempting to replace real-world observations. A significant body of research has focused on the mathematical modeling of HIV dynamics, particularly the interaction between HIV and T-lymphocytes. These models often employ nonlinear ordinary differential equations to capture the complexity of the system. In [1], Liu and Jiang studied the dynamics of a higher-order stochastically perturbed HIV/AIDS model with differential infectivity and amelioration. In [2], Naik et al. studied a dynamical fractional-order HIV-1 model by considering the chaotic behavior. In [3], Di Mascio et al. proposed and analyzed a mathematical model for the long-term control of viremia in HIV-1 infected patients treated with antiretroviral therapy. In [4], Kumar et al. studied a fractional model of HIV-1 infection with the effect of antiviral drug therapy. In [5], Ullah et al. proposed a fractional-order model describing HIV-1 transmission under the influence of antiviral drug treatment.
Seasonality is known to have a profound impact on the dynamics of several epidemics, with many displaying periodic behavior. This periodicity can be attributed to factors such as varying contact rates between uninfected and infected individuals, or it may occur autonomously [6,7,8,9]. Several studies [10,11,12,13,14] have explored the impact of seasonality on various epidemics, including HIV and chikungunya virus transmission. Recently, there has been a growing emphasis on studying HIV models from a within-host perspective to obtain a deeper understanding of HIV infections, not only in the time-fixed models that gained traction, but also in those considering periodic/seasonal effects. The intricate dynamics of viral infections within host organisms present a compelling area of study, particularly when examining the interplay between various biological and environmental factors that can influence infection outcomes. These factors, which include periodic effects and periodic treatments, can significantly impact the replication of viruses and their interactions with the host, ultimately shaping the course of the infection. While circadian rhythms, the natural cycles of biological processes that occur roughly every 24 hours, serve as a prime example of how timing can regulate physiological functions such as immune responses, other periodic phenomena, such as seasonal variations in contact rates or vaccination programs, can also play a crucial role in disease transmission dynamics. In [15], Wang and Song studied a mathematical model for HIV infection with periodic solutions. In [16], the authors examined the influence of periodic variations on HIV transmission while in [17], the authors focused on HIV infection dynamics with three routes of transmission with linear transmission rates in a periodic environment.
In this study, we refine the modeling of HIV dynamics by incorporating three distinct routes of transmission and adopting general nonlinear transmission rates within a seasonal environment, thereby introducing greater realism into the model. The basic reproduction number R0 is derived using an integral operator. Our analysis reveals that the virus-free periodic trajectory remains globally stable when R0<1, whereas the virus persists periodically when R0>1. These theoretical results are substantiated by comprehensive numerical simulations. The paper is structured as follows: In Section 2, we introduce a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations that models the dynamics of HIV transmission through three distinct routes in a seasonal environment, where the transmission rates are expressed in general nonlinear forms. We demonstrate that the virus-free periodic solution is globally asymptotically stable when R0<1, and that the virus persists when R0>1. Section 3 provides several numerical examples that support our theoretical findings. Finally, the concluding remarks of our study are presented in Section 4.
2.
Mathematical model development
The mathematical model proposed here is a generalization of the one presented in [17], which is a compartmental model describing the transfer between different compartments. We consider the variables S,L, and P to represent the numbers of susceptible, latently infected, and productively infected cells, respectively. Similarly, the variables V and C denote the numbers of free virions (HIV-1 particles) and T-lymphocytes, respectively. The infected cells are subdivided into two compartments based on their status: L or P. The variation in the number of infected cells depends on the number of target cells and the incidence rates. The three routes of infection are given by σ1φ1(V)S, σ2φ2(L)S, and σ3φ3(P)S, corresponding to infection from free virions, latently infected cells, and productively infected cells, respectively.
given an initial condition with non-negative values (S0,L0,P0,V0,C0)∈R5+. The significance of the model's parameters are given in Table 1.
Note that the incidence rates (φ1(V), φ2(L), and φ3(P)), the neutralization rate (φ4(P)) and the T-Lymphocyte impairment rate (φ5(P)) are all continuous, increasing functions that pass through the origin. Thus, we assume that these functions (φ1(V), φ2(L), φ3(P), φ4(P), and φ5(P)) satisfy certain assumptions. Furthermore, we assume that the death rates of the cells are distinct and depend on the cell status.
Assumption 2.1. ● All the model's parameters are ω-periodic nonnegative functions.
● φ1, φ2, φ3, φ4, and φ5 are continuous increasing functions such that
● ds(t)≤dl(t)≤dp(t),∀t∈R+.
Let C(t) be a continuous, n×n matrix function, ω-periodic, irreducible, and cooperative. Let ξC(t) be the solution of
and r(ξC(ω)) the spectral radius of ξC(ω) having positive elements ∀t>0. By applying the famous theory of Perron-Frobenius [18], one can deduce that ξC(ω) has the principal eigenvalue r(ξC(ω)). Therefore, we need to use the following lemma several times.
Lemma 2.2 ([19]). The ordinary differential equation (2.2) admits the solution ξ(t)=x(t)eℓt where ℓ=1ωln(r(ξC(ω))) and the function x(t) is positive and ω-periodic.
Consider the one-dimensional equation
such that the initial condition S0∈R+. Equation (2.3) has a unique ω-periodic globally attractive solution denoted by Λ∗(t) satisfying Λ∗(t)>0 for all t>0. As a result, model (2.1) allows for a unique virus-free periodic trajectory denoted A0(t)=(Λ∗(t),0,0,0,0).
For any continuous ω-periodic variable φ(t), we denote φu=maxt∈[0,ω)φ(t), φl=mint∈[0,ω)φ(t), and d(t)=mint≥0(dv(t),dc(t)).
Proposition 2.3. Ωu={(S,L,P,V,C)∈R5+/S+L+P≤Λu;V+C≤(ηu2+ηu3)Λudl} is compact, positive, invariant, and an attractor of every solution of system (2.1) such that we have
Proof. By summing the first three equations of system (2.1), we obtain
and
□
2.1. Disease-free periodic trajectory
By using the theory of Wang and Zhao [20], we can define the basic reproduction number R0 by rewriting system (2.1) in the following suitable form: Let
and
Our goal is to satisfy Assumptions (A1)–(A7) of [20]. Through the new variables' order, (2.1) will be written as
Therefore, Assumptions (A1)–(A5) in [20] are already satisfied. (2.5) admits a virus-free periodic trajectory X∗(t)=(0,0,0,Λ∗(t),0)T. Let
and
where hi(t,X(t)) and Xi(t) are the i-th components of h(t,X(t)) and X(t), respectively. We can easily obtain that
Then, r(ϕM(ω))<1. Then, the disease-free trajectory X∗(t) is asymptotically stable inside Ωs, where
and then Assumption (A6) of [20] is also verified.
Let us define the matrix functions Z(t) and W(t) given by
and
such that Zi(t,X(t)) and Wi(t,X(t)) are the i-th components of Z(t,X(t)) and W(t,X(t)), respectively. By a simple calculation, we obtain
and
The expression ddtH(t1,t2)=−W(t1)H(t1,t2) with t1≥t2 and H(t1,t1)=I3 admits a 3×3 matrix solution denoted by H(t1,t2). Then, Assumption (A7) of [20] is also verified.
Let us define the linear operator K:Cω→Cω as
where Cω is the Banach space of ω-periodic functions R↦R3, equipped with ‖.‖∞ as its norm. Therefore, the basic reproduction number R0 is expressed as the spectral radius of the operator K:
Furthermore, according to the theory in [20, Theorem 2.2], we have the following results.
Theorem 2.4. [20, Theorem 2.2]
● R0<1⇔r(ϕZ−W(ω))<1.
● R0=1⇔r(ϕZ−W(ω))=1.
● R0>1⇔r(ϕZ−W(ω))>1.
Thus, the local asymptotic stability of A0(t) is conditional to the satisfaction of the condition where R0<1; else, it will be unstable if R0>1.
Theorem 2.5. The global asymptotic stability of the disease-free solution, A0(t), is conditional to the satisfaction of the condition where R0<1, and it will be unstable if R0>1.
Proof. According to Theorem 2.4, the local asymptotic stability of A0(t) is conditional to R0<1. Therefore, we have to show that A0(t) is a globally attractive solution for the case where R0<1. By reference to the limit (2.4) in Lemma 2.3, ∀ς1>0, ∃T1>0 satisfying S(t)+L(t)+P(t)≤Λ∗(t)+ς1, ∀t>T1. Then, S(t)≤Λ∗(t)+ς1, and
∀t>T1. Let us consider the matrix
By using Theorem 2.4, we have r(φZ−W(ω))<1, and then we can choose ς1>0 small enough to satisfy r(φZ−W+ς1M2(ω))<1, and we consider the following system:
According to Lemma 2.2 and the comparison principle, we can prove that ∃y(t), an ω-periodic positive function y1(t) that satisfies x(t)≤y(t)ek1t, where
and
Hence, limt→∞L(t)=limt→∞P(t)=limt→∞V(t)=0, and then limt→∞C(t)=0. Furthermore, according to Eq (2.4), we deduce that limt→∞(S(t)−Λ∗(t))=0. We conclude the global attractivity of A0(t), enabling us to finalize the proof. □
2.2. HIV-infected periodic trajectory
Consider the Poincaré map Q:R5+→R5+ applied to system (2.1) where Y0↦w(ω,Y0) and w(t,Y0) is a trajectory of system (2.1) such that w(0,Y0)=Y0∈R4+ is the initial condition. Let us define the sets Γ={(S,L,P,V,C)∈R5+}, Γ0=Int(R5+), and ∂Γ0=Γ∖Γ0. By using Lemma 2.3, it is easy to see that Γ and Γ0 are positively invariant and that Q is point dissipative. Let us consider
Before applying the uniform persistence theory [19,21], we have to demonstrate that
On the one hand, we have M∂⊇{(S,0,0,0,0),S≥0}, and it remains to be shown that M∂∖{(S,0,0,0,0),S≥0}=∅. Let
Once P0=0 and 0<L0, L(t)>0, ∀t>0. Therefore, we obtain ˙P(t)|t=0=η1(0)L0>0. Once P0>0 and L0=0, P(t)>0 and S(t)>0, ∀t>0. Then, ∀t>0, one has
∀t>0, which means that (S(t),L(t),P(t),V(t),C(t))∉∂Γ0 for 0<t. Eq (2.10) follows directly since Γ0 is positively invariant, as established in Proposition 2.3. Subsequently, ∃(Λ∗(0),0,0,0,0), a unique fixed point of Q in M∂, and the HIV will persist.
Theorem 2.6. If R0>1, then (2.1) admits at least a positive periodic solution. Furthermore, ∃ϱ>0 that satisfies ∀(S0,L0,P0,V0,C0)∈R+×Int(R5+),
Proof. We aim in this proof to use the theory in reference [21, Theorem 3.1.1] to demonstrate the uniform persistence of the Poincaré map Q respecting (Γ0,∂Γ0), which allows us to prove the uniform persistence of the trajectories of system (2.1) respecting (Γ0,∂Γ0). Note that r(φZ−W(ω))>1 according to Theorem 2.4. Then, we can choose a constant ς2>0 such that r(φZ−W−ς2M2(ω))>1. Consider the perturbed dynamics
The Poincaré map Q admits a unique fixed point ˉS0α that is continuous with respect to α. Thus, one can choose α>0 satisfying ˉSα(t)>ˉS(t)−ς2, ∀t>0. Let us denote M1=(ˉS0,0,0,0,0). Since each solution of the dynamics is continuous with respect to the initial condition, then ∃α∗ satisfies ∀(S0,L0,P0,V0,C0)∈Γ0 with ‖(S0,L0,P0,V0,C0)−M1‖≤α∗, and we obtain that
By using the contradiction process, we will demonstrate that
Assume that lim supn→∞d(Qn(S0,L0,P0,V0,C0),M1)<α∗ for some (S0,L0,P0,V0,C0)∈Γ0. In particular, assume that d(Qn(S0,L0,P0,V0,C0),M1)<α∗, ∀n>0. Therefore, we get
for all n>0 and 0≤t≤ω. For any t≥0, assume that t=nω+t1, where t1∈[0,ω) and n≤tω is the greatest integer of tω. Then, we get
Let
Then, 0≤L(t),P(t),V(t)≤α, ∀t≥0, and
The Poincaré map Q has a fixed point ˉS0α which is globally attractive such that ˉSα(t)>ˉS(t)−ς2. Then, there exists a constant T2>0 satisfying
Therefore, ∀t>T2,
As r(φZ−W−ς2M2(ω))>1, there exists an ω-periodic solution y(t) that satisfies J(t)≥ek2ty(t) and
Then, limt→∞P(t)=∞, and this is impossible since the trajectory is bounded, and so (2.12) is satisfied. The weak uniform persistence of Q is verified with respect to (Γ0,∂Γ0). According to Proposition 2.3, the map Q admits a global attractor, and then M1=(ˉS0,0,0,0,0) is invariant in Γ and Ws(M1)∩Γ0=∅. All solutions inside M∂ tend towards M1, which is acyclic in M∂. By using the results in [21, Theorem 1.3.1], we deduce that the map Q is uniformly persistent with respect to (Γ0,∂Γ0). Furthermore, when using [21, Theorem 1.3.6], the map Q has a fixed point (˜S0,˜L0,˜P0,˜V0,˜C0)∈Γ0 such that (˜S0,˜L0,˜P0,˜V0,˜C0)∈R+×Int(R4+). Our goal now is to demonstrate that ˜S0>0. We shall use the contradiction technique by assuming that ˜S0=0. According to system (2.1), ˜S(t) fulfills
with ˜S0=˜S(mω)=0,m=1,2,3,⋯. By using Lemma 2.3, ∀ς3>0, ∃T3>0 satisfying
Then, one gets
for t≥T3. Therefore, ∃ˉm satisfying mω>T3, ∀m>ˉm. According to the comparison principle, one obtains
˜S(mω)>0, ∀m>ˉm which contradicts the fact that ˜S(mω)=0. Therefore, ˜S0 should satisfy ˜S0>0, and (˜S0,˜L0,˜P0,˜V0,˜C0) is an ω-periodic solution of (2.1). □
3.
Numerical investigation
The goal of this section is to give several numerical tests that confirm the obtained theoretical results. The incidence rates were modeled by Monod-type functions as follows:
where φmaxi and ki, i=1,⋯,5 are nonnegative constants. Note that φi, i=1,⋯,5 are continuous and increasing functions. The ω-periodic functions were modeled by a well-known form given by
where a0≥0 is the baseline value, 0<a1≤1 is the magnitude of the periodic variation, and 0≤Θ≤1 is the phase.
The seasonal cycles frequencies Λ1, ds1, dl1, di1, dv1, dc1, σ11, σ21, σ31, σ41, σ51, η11, η21, and η31 satisfy |Λ1|<1, |ds1|<1, |dl1|<1, |di1|<1, |dv1|<1, |dc1|<1, |σ11|<1, |σ21|<1, |σ31|<1, |σ41|<1, |σ51|<1, |η11|<1, |η21|<1, and |η31|<1. All fixed constants Λ0, ms0, dl0, dp0, dv0, dc0, σ10, σ20, σ30, η10, σ40, σ50, η20, and η30 are provided in Table 2. Due to the absence of biological data for our simulations, we have selected parameter values arbitrarily, and they do not possess any biological meaning.
Three environmental situations were considered. The first case involves all parameters being constants. The second case considers only the transmission rates σ1(t), σ2(t), σ3(t), σ4(t), and σ5(t) as ω-periodic functions. The third situation examines the scenario where all parameters are ω-periodic functions.
3.1. Fixed parameters
In this first situation, we consider the case where all parameters are constant. Model (2.1) then takes the form
such that the positive initial condition (S0,L0,P0,V0,C0)=(0.01,4,7,3,6)∈R5+. Let us denote by R0, the basic reproduction number. It can be determined through the next-generation matrix method [22,23]. Let
and then
Therefore, the next-generation matrix FV−1 is given by
Therefore, R0 is given by
We provide several numerical examples to validate the obtained theoretical results. The behavior of the trajectories of (3.2) with respect to time is shown in Figure 1 (right) and in LPV coordinates in Figure 1 (left), which represent the main variables of the disease where R0>1. As can be seen, the solution converges to the positive steady state, reflecting the persistence of HIV. To validate global stability, we consider several initial conditions in Figure 2, and all trajectories converge to the same steady state. In Figure 3 (left), the behavior of the trajectories of (3.2) in LPV coordinates and the behavior of the trajectories with respect to time (Figure 3, right) are shown for R0<1. Once again, the theoretical results are confirmed, as the solution converges to the HIV disease-free steady state A0=(Λ0,0,0,0,0), confirming the extinction of HIV. To further validate the global stability of the HIV disease-free steady state A0, several initial conditions were considered in Figure 4, and all trajectories converge to the same disease-free steady state.
3.2. Periodic transmission rates
In the second situation, we perform numerical tests on (2.1), where only the incidence rates (σ1(t), σ2(t), σ3(t)), the neutralization rate (σ4(t)), and the T-lymphocytes impairment rate (σ5(t)) depend on time t, and are assumed to be ω-periodic functions. The model then takes the form
such that the positive initial condition (S0,L0,P0,V0,C0)=(0.01,4,7,3,6)∈R5+. We used the time-averaged system to approximate R0. The behavior of the trajectories of (3.3) with respect to time is shown in Figure 5 (right), and in LPV coordinates in Figure 5 (left), where R0>1. As can be seen, the solution converges to a periodic trajectory, confirming HIV persistence. Several initial conditions were considered in Figure 6, and all trajectories converge to the same periodic solution. In Figure 7, we display the behavior of the trajectories of (3.3) in LPV coordinates (left) and with respect to time (right) for R0<1. Again, the theoretical results are confirmed, as the solution converges to the HIV disease-free steady state A0=(Λ0,0,0,0,0), confirming HIV extinction. In Figure 8, several initial conditions were considered, and all trajectories converge to the same disease-free steady state.
3.3. Totally periodic environment
In the third step, we assume that all parameters are ω-periodic functions, and the system is expressed as
given an initial condition with non-negative values
Again, as in the case of model (3.3), the time-averaged system was used to calculate R0. The behavior of the trajectories of (3.4) with respect to time is shown in Figure 9 (right), and in LPV coordinates in Figure 9 (left), where R0>1. As can be seen, the solution converges to a periodic trajectory, confirming HIV persistence. Several initial conditions were considered in Figure 10, and all trajectories converge to the same periodic trajectory. In Figure 11, we display the behavior of the trajectories of (3.4) in LPV coordinates (left) and the behavior of the trajectories with respect to time (right) for R0<1. Again, the theoretical results are confirmed, as the solution converges to the HIV disease-free periodic solution A0(t)=(Λ∗(t),0,0,0,0), confirming HIV extinction. Several initial conditions were considered in Figure 12, and all trajectories converge to the same disease-free steady state.
4.
Conclusions
This paper extends the system studied in [17], which models HIV transmission in blood cells by generalizing the infection, neutralization, and impairment rates. We defined the basic reproduction number R0 as the spectral radius of an integral operator. It is demonstrated that the HIV-free periodic solution A0(t) is globally asymptotically stable when R0<1, and that HIV persists when R0>1, exhibiting asymptotic periodic behavior. We provide several numerical tests for three situations, fixed parameters, periodic transmission rates, and a fully periodic environment, all of which confirm the theoretical results, showing that the solution converges to a limit cycle.
Acknowledgments
The author is grateful to the anonymous reviewers for their valuable and constructive feedback, which helped improve the presentation of the paper.
Conflict of interest
The author declares no conflict of interest.