1.
Introduction
Mathematical modeling plays an important role in understanding a lot of phenomena and situations in the real world. It can be applied to describe the relationships among the components of a problem by using mathematical tools. In addition, it is a useful technique that is applied to introduce predictions for real problems. Moreover, it deals with a different field of sciences, for instance, see [1,2,3,4,5,6,7]. One of the mathematical tools applied to analyze and discuss the problems is differential equations. There is more than one operator of differential equation that helps study the problem and gives accurate representations for the problems.
Mathematical modeling is commonly used in studying the outbreak of infectious diseases. Recently, many articles were published to investigate the transmission of various diseases among the people such as influenza [8,9], Zika virus [10], Covid-19 [11,12], and measles [13]. In the field of mathematical modeling of infectious diseases, the researchers are interested in presenting the qualitative analysis of their proposed model. They focus on finding the conditions that reduce the pandemic by illustrating the stability theory. Therefore, they employ the ordinary differential equations (ODEs), partial differential equations (PDEs), discrete differential equations, and fractional order differential equations (FDEs) in their study. The earliest modeling of infectious disease considered the population of the outbreak has only three groups: susceptible group S, infected group I, and recovered group R [14]. After that, the scientists extended a classic model SIR into SEIR to incorporate the exposed individual [15,16,17]. A lot of modifications for the classical epidemic models were introduced by including other categories of population components such as: vaccination class, treatment control, or new factors that affect on the transmission of the infectious disease [18,19,20].
Vaccine is an appropriate way and it is important to reduce the spread of infectious diseases. Therefore, the researchers considered the impact of vaccination in their models, and many of the published articles describe the transmission of infectious diseases through the population by assuming the individuals who are vaccinated as a component of the population [21,22,23,24,25].
One of the significant examples of infectious diseases is Coronavirus. Coronavirus disease (Covid-19) was discovered in 2019 and then spread worldwide, leading to a continuing pandemic outbreak worldwide [26,27]. Recently, many published articles studied the outbreak of Covid-19 by considering more than one class of infected people, since a person can be infected by Covid-19 without displaying any symptoms. Also, some of these articles show the role of a vaccine in fighting the diffusion of Covid-19 [28,29,30]. Therefore, it is important to develop a mathematical model to represent the spread of infectious diseases by including the different types of infected people and vaccinated people at the same time. Accordingly, this work aims to propose mathematical modeling in which the population involves two types of infected groups and vaccinated individuals, and it also considers the fractional differential equations as an operator for this system. The fractional order of differential equations was used in many biological systems because the memory feature, which is the ability to include all previous conditions to explain the state condition, and the non-locality effect distinguishes the fractional derivative, which means it is valuable for the pandemic models depend on the history [31,32,33]. Furthermore, the fractional order of differential equations is more similar to real-life problems, and it expresses the whole time domain for physical stages, not as in the ODEs systems that are related to the local properties of a certain position [32]. Hence, fractional calculus investigates the arbitrary-order derivative, that is, it is a generalization of ODEs [34].
In [34], Sun et al. constructed an SEQIR epidemic model with saturated incidence and vaccination. They investigated the stability analysis of equilibrium points by presenting different theorems. Soulaimani and Kaddar [35] introduced a study of an optimal control of fractional order SEIR model with general incidence and vaccination. The SVEIR epidemic model was considered and verified by Nabti and Ghanbari [36], and they proved properties of their model such as existence, boundedness, and global stability of equilibria. In [37], the authors proposed a new fractional infectious disease model under the non-singular Mittage-Leffler derivative. They assumed the infectious group has been divided into two classes: acute and chronically infectious people. In [38], Ali et al. investigated the transmission dynamics of a fractional-order mathematical model of COVID-19 including susceptible, exposed, asymptomatic infected, symptomatic infected, and recovered.
However, these previous models neglected the effect of vaccination on some infectious individual cases. Hence, this work distributes a new modification of infection dynamics that contains two types of infected individuals and people who are vaccinated. It is organized as follows: In Section 2, we introduce the description of our model. Some definitions of fractional derivatives, existence, positivity, and boundedness of the proposed model are shown in Section 3. In Section 4, we prove the global stability of the equilibria. The numerical simulations are given in Section 5, to validate the analysis results proved in previous sections.
2.
Model formulation
This paper is interested in modifying the SEIR epidemic model. The proposed model consists of the following components: the susceptible individuals are denoted by S(t), the exposed individuals are given by E(t), Ic(t) and Iη(t) are defined as the asymptomatic infected and symptomatic infected respectively, V(t) is described the individuals that are vaccinated, and R(t) are recovered population.
2.1. System description
Our proposed model is described as
with initial conditions
Here, the total population is N(t)=S(t)+E(t)+Ic(t)+Iη(t)+V(t)+R(t), where Dϑ is fractional derivative in the Caputo sense and ϑ is a parameter that describes the order of the fractional time-derivative with 0<ϑ≤1. Each of the proposed model's parameters is assumed to be positive and constant, and they are shown in Table 1. Figure 1 describes all elements of system (2.1).
3.
Mathematical preliminaries and basic properties
In our work, we will apply the Caputo-derivative because it has important features such as nonlocal and nonsingular exponential kernel [30]. Consequently, in this section, we introduce some of the related definitions. Also, we will investigate the solution's following characteristics: existence of the solution, uniqueness, positivity, and boundedness.
Definition 3.1. [39] The Caputo derivative of order ϑ>0 for any function χ∈Cn([t0,∞),R) is given as
where t≥t0, Γ is Gamma function, and n∈Z+, such that ϑ∈(n−1,n).
Lemma 3.1. [40] Consider the following fractional system
where ϑ∈(0,1],Υ:[t0,∞)רΞ⟶R6. If Υ satisfied the Lipschitz condition, then the system (2.1) has a unique solution on [t0,∞).
3.1. Existence, positivity, and boundedness of solutions
Assume that ¨Ξ={S,E,Ic,Iη,V,R∈R6+:S≥0,E≥0,Ic≥0,Iη≥0,V≥0,R≥0,max(|S|,|E|,|Ic|,|Iη|,|V|,|R|)≤ϕ}. Then, we will indicate that for each initial value in ¨Ξ, the solution of system (2.1) is unique.
Theorem 3.2. The solution of system (2.1) is non-negative and ultimately uniformly bounded for all t>0.
Proof. First, we will illustrate that the solution of system (2.1) is non-negative. From system (2.1), we get
Hence, we can see that S(t),E(t),Ic(t),Iη(t),V(t),R(t)≥0 for any t≥0. Now, we figure out the solution of system (2.1) is uniformly bounded. Let N(t)=S(t)+E(t)+Ic(t)+Iη(t)+V(t)+R(t). Then,
Applying the Laplace transform on Eq (3.1), we get
Then, by using the inverse Laplace transform, we find that
where E is the Mittag-Leffler function. Thus, according to Lemma 5 and Corollary 6 in [41], we have
Therefore, we find lim supt⟶∞N(t)≤Δρ, implies that S(t),E(t),Ic(t),Iη(t),V(t),andR(t) are bounded. Thus,
is a positive invariant set with respect to system (2.1). □
Theorem 3.3. For any given initial conditions in ¨Ξ, such that S(0),E(0),Ic(0),Iη(0),V(0),R(0)>0, the model (2.1) has a unique solution on [0,∞) and it remains non-negative and bounded for all t>0.
Proof. Let Ψ(χ)=(Ψ1(χ),Ψ2(χ),Ψ3(χ),Ψ4(χ),Ψ5(χ),Ψ6(χ)) be a mapping, where
and χ=(S,E,Ic,Iη,V,R). Suppose that φ and ˉφ are two arbitrary solutions of system (2.1), such that φ=(S,E,Ic,Iη,V,R),andˉφ=(ˉS,ˉE,¯Ic,¯Iη,ˉV,ˉR). Then, we obtain
where,
As a result, Ψ(χ) satisfies Lipschitz condition, implying that the solution of system (2.1) exists and unique. □
4.
Analysis of the model
In this section, we calculate the basic reproduction number R0. Then, we explore the global stability analysis of the disease-free equilibrium point and endemic-equilibrium point by constructing the appropriate Lyaounov functions.
4.1. The basic reproduction number
It is observed that our system (2.1) always admits a disease-free equilibrium point U0=(S0,0,0,0,V0,R0), and to study the existence of the endemic equilibrium point U∗ of the system (2.1), we establish the reproduction number R0 by employing the well-known method of the next generation matrix [42], which is a number of newly infected individuals generated from an infected individual at the beginning of the infectious process. Mathematically, it is a spectral radius of the next-generation matrix J−1Π, where J represents the positive matrix of new infection cases, which is a derivative of the non-linear terms at U0, and Π denotes the matrix of the transition of the infections, which is a derivative of the linear terms at U0. For a system (2.1), we obtain
Thus, we get
Then, the basic reproduction number R0 is the spectral radius of the matrix J−1Π, which is defined as
Since, R0,1 represents the average number of secondary cases caused by contact with the infected people without symptoms while R0,2 determines the average number of secondary cases related to infected people with symptoms.
4.2. Steady states
Lemma 4.1. The model (2.1) has a positive basic reproduction number R0 such that:
(ⅰ) if R0≤1, then there exists only one fixed point.
(ⅱ) if R0>1, then there exist two equilibrium points.
Proof. To calculate the equilibria of system (2.1), we set (S,E,Ic,Iη,V,R) as an equilibrium point that satisfies the following equations
Thus, from Eq (4.3) and Eq (4.4), we get
Substituting Eq (4.7) in Eq (4.1), we have
From substituting Eqs (4.7) and (4.8) in Eq (4.5), we obtain
Substituting Eqs (4.7) and (4.9) in Eq (4.6), we find
Now, from substituting Eqs (4.7)–(4.9) into Eq (4.2), we have
where,
Hence, from Eq (4.11) we see that,
(ⅰ) if E=0, then from Eqs (4.7)–(4.10), we get the disease-free equilibrium point U0=(S0,0,0,0,V0,R0)=(Δκ+ρ,0,0,0,Δκ(ϱ+ρ)(κ+ρ),ϱΔκρ(ϱ+ρ)(κ+ρ)).
(ⅱ) if E≠0, then we have K1E2+K2E+K3=0. Since K22−4K1K3>0 and K3<0 if and only if R0>1, that means there exist a positive real root E∗ when R0>1. By substituting E∗ into Eqs (4.7)–(4.10), we have
and
It is clear that the endemic equilibrium point U∗=(S∗,E∗,I∗c,I∗η,V∗,R∗) exists if R0>1. □
4.3. Stability of equilibria
Clearly, from system (2.1), the equation of recovered group R can be ignored without any loss of generality since it does not appear in the rest of the equations. Furthermore, recovered equation R and the other equations have no transmission rates between them. Thus, in studying the stability of the equilibria, we will reduce the model (2.1) to the following system
Hence, we will clarify the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium point and endemic equilibrium point by establishing the Lyapunov function.
Let the function T(u(t)):R+⟶R+ be defined as T(u(t))=u(t)−uc−ucln(u(t)uc), and note that T(u(t)) is non-negative for any u(t)>0. In addition, we set
Lemma 4.2. [43] Assume χ(t)∈R+ is a continuous and derivable function. Then, for any t≥t0,
Theorem 4.3. The disease-free equilibrium point U0 is globally asymptotically stable (GAS) if R0≤1.
Proof. We construct a Lyapunov function Θ⟶R5+ as follows
where, ω1=(ρ+d1)(ρ+d2)(S0+εV0),ω2=β1(ρ+d2),andω3=β2(ρ+d1). It is observe that Z is positive definite. The time derivative of Z along solutions of system (4.12) is given as
By using Δ=(κ+ρ)S0 and κS0=(ϱ+ρ)V0, we obtain
Then,
Therefore,
Hence,
Thus, since the geometric mean is less than or equal arithmetical mean, we obtain
Moreover, when R0≤1, DϑZ≤0 for all S,E,Ic,Iη,V>0. Note that DϑZ=0 if and only if S=S0,E=0, and V=V0. Hence, the subset H′ is the largest invariant set of H={(S,E,Ic,Iη,V)∈Θ:DϑZ=0}. By applying La Salle's invariant principle [44], we observe that all solutions converge to H′. In H′, the elements are equal to S=S0,V=V0, and E=0. Also, from the system (4.12), we obtain Ic=0 and Iη=0 when E=0. Thus, H′={(S,E,Ic,Iη,V)∈H:S=S0,V=V0,E=Ic=Iη=0}={U0}. Therefore, U0 is GAS when R0<1. □
Theorem 4.4. The endemic equilibrium point U∗ is GAS when R0>1.
Proof. We define a Lyapunov function as follows:
Note that ˉZ is positive definite. By calculating the time derivative of ˉZ along the solutions of system (4.12), we obtain
From the equilibria, we have the following relationships
After substituting the above relationships and then eliminating some terms, we obtain
Hence,
Therefore,
Then,
We obtain,
Thus,
Therefore,
Finally, we have
Now, from the geometrical and arithmetical means relationship, we have
As a result, DϑˉZ≤0 if R0>1 for all S,E,Ic,Iη,V>0. Moreover, DϑˉZ=0 if and only if S=S∗,E=E∗,Ic=I∗c,Iη=I∗η and V=V∗. Suppose that ˉH′ is the largest subset of ˉH={(S,E,Ic,Iη,V):DϑˉZ=0}. Then, ˉH′={U∗}. Therefore, from La Salle's invariant principle [44], the endemic equilibrium point U∗ is GAS when R0>1. □
5.
Numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis
5.1. Sensitivity analysis
A valuable insight into how changes in various parameters impact the overall dynamics of the system can be provided by the sensitivity analysis of the model with respect to the basic reproduction number R0. Now, to study the sensitivity, we calculate the partial derivatives of R0 with respect to each parameter. Thus, we have
Then, we see that
and
where ˙ξ=(d1+ρ)(d2+ρ)(κ+ρ)(γ+ρ)+(ϱ+ρ)(d2+ρ)(κ+ρ)(γ+ρ)+(d1+ρ)(ϱ+ρ)(κ+ρ)(γ+ρ)+(d1+ρ)(d2+ρ)(ϱ+ρ)(γ+ρ)+(d1+ρ)(d2+ρ)(κ+ρ)(ϱ+ρ). Therefore, an increase in the value of β1,β2,Δ,ε, and γ would result in a rise in R0 while no change occurs if ρ varies. Conversely, the rest parameters would indicate the opposite effect.
5.2. Numerical simulation
In this subsection, we will illustrate that our theoretical investigations are confirmed with numerical results. Therefore, we set three groups of initial conditions:
● IC1:S(0)=25,E(0)=3,Ic(0)=6,Iη(0)=5,V(0)=5,R(0)=10.
● IC2:S(0)=50,E(0)=6,Ic(0)=12,Iη(0)=1,V(0)=5,R(0)=5.
● IC3:S(0)=60,E(0)=15,Ic(0)=1,Iη(0)=1,V(0)=10,R(0)=8.
Now, we assume that values of the parameters are Δ=10,κ=0.4,γ=0.8,ρ=0.2,ϱ=0.2,d1=d2=0.2,θ=0.5,ε=0.3 while β1 and β2, varied. Additionally, we plot the solutions of the system (2.1) at different values of ϑ (0.95,0.85,0.75, and 1) by using predictor-corrector PECE method of Adams-Bashforth-Moulton [45]. Then, we will study the following cases:
Ⅰ: The effect of β1 and β2 on the stability
By setting β1=0.02,β2=0.02 and using IC1, we obtain R0=0.6933<1, and the result is given in Figure 2. The solution trajectories converge to U0=(S0,E0,Ic,0,Iη,0,V0,R0)=(16.67,0,0,0,16.67,16.67). This ensures that U0 is GAS based on the result of Theorem 4.3. This means the spread of the infectious disease is decreasing.
By setting β1=0.2,β2=0.02 and using IC1, we obtain R0=3.8133>1, and the result is given in Figure 3. The solution trajectories converge to U∗=(S∗,E∗,I∗c,I∗η,V∗,R∗)=(4.96,8.04,6.43,6.43,2.40,21.71). Also, when β1=0.1,β2=0.1, we get R0=3.4667>1, as shown in Figure 4, and it is clear that the solutions tend to U∗=(S∗,E∗,I∗c,I∗η,V∗,R∗)=(5.41,7.79,6.23,6.23,2.79,21.51). This prove that, from Figures 3 and 4, the equilibrium point U∗ is GAS based on the result of Theorem 4.4. Biologically, this indicates there is an outbreak of infectious disease.
In Figure 5, we plot the solutions at different initial conditions and ϑ=0.95, and we also assume that β1=0.02,β2=0.02. Then we have R0=0.6933 and β1=0.2,β2=0.02, which implies R0=3.8133. Thus, we observe that the results support the theoretical results of Theorems 4.3 and 4.4. Finally, we notice that the proposed fractional system converts to the following ODE system at ϑ=1
Then, we solve the ODE system (5.12) by using the Runge-Kutta method (rk4). Figures 2–4 show that the solution of system (2.1) is consistent with the solution of system (5.12) when ϑ is equal to one. In addition, from Figures 2–4, we conclude that the increasing of fractional order reduces the outbreak of the infectious disease.
Ⅱ: The effect of κ on equilibrium point
In this part, we select different values of κ to examine the effect of the vaccination rate κ on the transmission of the infectious disease. We fix the values Δ=10,ε=0.3,γ=0.8,ρ=0.2ϱ=0.2,d1=d2=0.2,θ=0.5, and β1=β2=0.1 with IC2. Table 2 illustrates that increasing κ leads to decreasing R0 and the number of infected individuals. This result is shown in Figure 6.
6.
Conclusions
In this work, we presented a SEIcIηVR epidemic model with two types of infected individuals and a vaccination strategy. The model has six compartments: susceptible S(t), exposed E(t), asymptomatic infected Ic(t), symptomatic infected Iη(t), vaccinated V(t), and recovered R(t). We proved the existence, positivity, and boundedness of all solutions in this model. By applying the next-generation method, we calculated the basic reproduction number R0 that controls the existence and stability of the equilibria. By applying the Lyapunov method together with LaSalle's invariance principle, we derived that if the basic reproduction number R0 is less than one, then the free-disease equilibrium point is GAS and if R0 is greater than one, then the endemic equilibrium point is GAS. In addition, the effect of the vaccination rate κ is illustrated numerically and we conclude that, as κ increases, R0 is decreased. This means the vaccine can be useful in reducing the spread of infectious diseases. Finally, some of the numerical simulations were introduced to support our theoretical results by using MATLAB.
Use of AI tools declaration
The authors declare they have not used Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools in the creation of this article.
Conflict of interest
The author declare no conflict of interest.