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Research article

Quantitative analysis of a fractional order of the SEIcIηVR epidemic model with vaccination strategy

  • Received: 25 December 2023 Revised: 23 January 2024 Accepted: 29 January 2024 Published: 19 February 2024
  • MSC : 26A33, 34A08, 37N30

  • This work focused on studying the effect of vaccination rate κ on reducing the outbreak of infectious diseases, especially if the infected individuals do not have any symptoms. We employed the fractional order derivative in this study since it has a high degree of accuracy. Recently, a lot of scientists have been interested in fractional-order models. It is considered a modern direction in the mathematical modeling of epidemiology systems. Therefore, a fractional order of the SEIR epidemic model with two types of infected groups and vaccination strategy was formulated and investigated in this paper. The proposed model includes the following classes: susceptible S(t), exposed E(t), asymptomatic infected Ic(t), symptomatic infected Iη(t), vaccinated V(t), and recovered R(t). We began our study by creating the existence, non-negativity, and boundedness of the solutions of the proposed model. Moreover, we established the basic reproduction number R0, that was used to examine the existence and stability of the equilibrium points for the presented model. By creating appropriate Lyapunov functions, we proved the global stability of the free-disease equilibrium point and endemic equilibrium point. We concluded that the free-disease equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable (GAS) when R01, while the endemic equilibrium point is GAS if R0>1. Therefore, we indicated the increasing vaccination rate κ leads to reducing R0. These findings confirm the important role of vaccination rate κ in fighting the spread of infectious diseases. Moreover, the numerical simulations were introduced to validate theoretical results that are given in this work by applying the predictor-corrector PECE method of Adams-Bashforth-Moulton. Further more, the impact of the vaccination rate κ was explored numerically and we found that, as κ increases, the R0 is decreased. This means the vaccine can be useful in reducing the spread of infectious diseases.

    Citation: Abeer Alshareef. Quantitative analysis of a fractional order of the SEIcIηVR epidemic model with vaccination strategy[J]. AIMS Mathematics, 2024, 9(3): 6878-6903. doi: 10.3934/math.2024335

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  • This work focused on studying the effect of vaccination rate κ on reducing the outbreak of infectious diseases, especially if the infected individuals do not have any symptoms. We employed the fractional order derivative in this study since it has a high degree of accuracy. Recently, a lot of scientists have been interested in fractional-order models. It is considered a modern direction in the mathematical modeling of epidemiology systems. Therefore, a fractional order of the SEIR epidemic model with two types of infected groups and vaccination strategy was formulated and investigated in this paper. The proposed model includes the following classes: susceptible S(t), exposed E(t), asymptomatic infected Ic(t), symptomatic infected Iη(t), vaccinated V(t), and recovered R(t). We began our study by creating the existence, non-negativity, and boundedness of the solutions of the proposed model. Moreover, we established the basic reproduction number R0, that was used to examine the existence and stability of the equilibrium points for the presented model. By creating appropriate Lyapunov functions, we proved the global stability of the free-disease equilibrium point and endemic equilibrium point. We concluded that the free-disease equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable (GAS) when R01, while the endemic equilibrium point is GAS if R0>1. Therefore, we indicated the increasing vaccination rate κ leads to reducing R0. These findings confirm the important role of vaccination rate κ in fighting the spread of infectious diseases. Moreover, the numerical simulations were introduced to validate theoretical results that are given in this work by applying the predictor-corrector PECE method of Adams-Bashforth-Moulton. Further more, the impact of the vaccination rate κ was explored numerically and we found that, as κ increases, the R0 is decreased. This means the vaccine can be useful in reducing the spread of infectious diseases.



    Mathematical modeling plays an important role in understanding a lot of phenomena and situations in the real world. It can be applied to describe the relationships among the components of a problem by using mathematical tools. In addition, it is a useful technique that is applied to introduce predictions for real problems. Moreover, it deals with a different field of sciences, for instance, see [1,2,3,4,5,6,7]. One of the mathematical tools applied to analyze and discuss the problems is differential equations. There is more than one operator of differential equation that helps study the problem and gives accurate representations for the problems.

    Mathematical modeling is commonly used in studying the outbreak of infectious diseases. Recently, many articles were published to investigate the transmission of various diseases among the people such as influenza [8,9], Zika virus [10], Covid-19 [11,12], and measles [13]. In the field of mathematical modeling of infectious diseases, the researchers are interested in presenting the qualitative analysis of their proposed model. They focus on finding the conditions that reduce the pandemic by illustrating the stability theory. Therefore, they employ the ordinary differential equations (ODEs), partial differential equations (PDEs), discrete differential equations, and fractional order differential equations (FDEs) in their study. The earliest modeling of infectious disease considered the population of the outbreak has only three groups: susceptible group S, infected group I, and recovered group R [14]. After that, the scientists extended a classic model SIR into SEIR to incorporate the exposed individual [15,16,17]. A lot of modifications for the classical epidemic models were introduced by including other categories of population components such as: vaccination class, treatment control, or new factors that affect on the transmission of the infectious disease [18,19,20].

    Vaccine is an appropriate way and it is important to reduce the spread of infectious diseases. Therefore, the researchers considered the impact of vaccination in their models, and many of the published articles describe the transmission of infectious diseases through the population by assuming the individuals who are vaccinated as a component of the population [21,22,23,24,25].

    One of the significant examples of infectious diseases is Coronavirus. Coronavirus disease (Covid-19) was discovered in 2019 and then spread worldwide, leading to a continuing pandemic outbreak worldwide [26,27]. Recently, many published articles studied the outbreak of Covid-19 by considering more than one class of infected people, since a person can be infected by Covid-19 without displaying any symptoms. Also, some of these articles show the role of a vaccine in fighting the diffusion of Covid-19 [28,29,30]. Therefore, it is important to develop a mathematical model to represent the spread of infectious diseases by including the different types of infected people and vaccinated people at the same time. Accordingly, this work aims to propose mathematical modeling in which the population involves two types of infected groups and vaccinated individuals, and it also considers the fractional differential equations as an operator for this system. The fractional order of differential equations was used in many biological systems because the memory feature, which is the ability to include all previous conditions to explain the state condition, and the non-locality effect distinguishes the fractional derivative, which means it is valuable for the pandemic models depend on the history [31,32,33]. Furthermore, the fractional order of differential equations is more similar to real-life problems, and it expresses the whole time domain for physical stages, not as in the ODEs systems that are related to the local properties of a certain position [32]. Hence, fractional calculus investigates the arbitrary-order derivative, that is, it is a generalization of ODEs [34].

    In [34], Sun et al. constructed an SEQIR epidemic model with saturated incidence and vaccination. They investigated the stability analysis of equilibrium points by presenting different theorems. Soulaimani and Kaddar [35] introduced a study of an optimal control of fractional order SEIR model with general incidence and vaccination. The SVEIR epidemic model was considered and verified by Nabti and Ghanbari [36], and they proved properties of their model such as existence, boundedness, and global stability of equilibria. In [37], the authors proposed a new fractional infectious disease model under the non-singular Mittage-Leffler derivative. They assumed the infectious group has been divided into two classes: acute and chronically infectious people. In [38], Ali et al. investigated the transmission dynamics of a fractional-order mathematical model of COVID-19 including susceptible, exposed, asymptomatic infected, symptomatic infected, and recovered.

    However, these previous models neglected the effect of vaccination on some infectious individual cases. Hence, this work distributes a new modification of infection dynamics that contains two types of infected individuals and people who are vaccinated. It is organized as follows: In Section 2, we introduce the description of our model. Some definitions of fractional derivatives, existence, positivity, and boundedness of the proposed model are shown in Section 3. In Section 4, we prove the global stability of the equilibria. The numerical simulations are given in Section 5, to validate the analysis results proved in previous sections.

    This paper is interested in modifying the SEIR epidemic model. The proposed model consists of the following components: the susceptible individuals are denoted by S(t), the exposed individuals are given by E(t), Ic(t) and Iη(t) are defined as the asymptomatic infected and symptomatic infected respectively, V(t) is described the individuals that are vaccinated, and R(t) are recovered population.

    Our proposed model is described as

    DϑS=Δβ1SIcβ2SIη(κ+ρ)S,DϑE=β1SIc+β2SIη+εβ1VIc+εβ2VIη(γ+ρ)E,DϑIc=θγE(d1+ρ)Ic,DϑIη=(1θ)γE(d2+ρ)Iη,DϑV=κSεβ1VIcεβ2VIη(ϱ+ρ)V,DϑR=ϱV+d1Ic+d2IηρR, (2.1)

    with initial conditions

    S(0)0,E(0)0,Ic(0)0,Iη(0)0,V(0)0,andR(0)0.

    Here, the total population is N(t)=S(t)+E(t)+Ic(t)+Iη(t)+V(t)+R(t), where Dϑ is fractional derivative in the Caputo sense and ϑ is a parameter that describes the order of the fractional time-derivative with 0<ϑ1. Each of the proposed model's parameters is assumed to be positive and constant, and they are shown in Table 1. Figure 1 describes all elements of system (2.1).

    Table 1.  Description of the parameters in the proposed model.
    Parameters Description
    Δ The rate of recruitment into the susceptible individuals.
    β1 The infection rate of susceptible population without symptoms.
    β2 The infection rate of susceptible population with symptoms.
    κ Vaccination rate.
    ρ Natural mortality rate.
    ε Vaccine ineffectiveness, 0ε1.
    θγ The progression rate from E(t) into Ic(t), since 0θ1.
    (1θ)γ The progression rate from E(t) into Iη(t).
    ϱ The rate of vaccinated individuals that were removed to the recovered group.
    d1 The recovery rate of infected individuals without symptoms.
    d2 The recovery rate of infected individuals with symptoms.

     | Show Table
    DownLoad: CSV
    Figure 1.  The diagram of system (2.1).

    In our work, we will apply the Caputo-derivative because it has important features such as nonlocal and nonsingular exponential kernel [30]. Consequently, in this section, we introduce some of the related definitions. Also, we will investigate the solution's following characteristics: existence of the solution, uniqueness, positivity, and boundedness.

    Definition 3.1. [39] The Caputo derivative of order ϑ>0 for any function χCn([t0,),R) is given as

    Dϑχ(t)=1Γ(nϑ)tt0χ(n)(z)(tz)ϑn+1dz,

    where tt0, Γ is Gamma function, and nZ+, such that ϑ(n1,n).

    Lemma 3.1. [40] Consider the following fractional system

    Dϑχ(t)=Υ(t,χ(t)),andχ(t0)=χ0,t0>0,

    where ϑ(0,1],Υ:[t0,)רΞR6. If Υ satisfied the Lipschitz condition, then the system (2.1) has a unique solution on [t0,).

    Assume that ¨Ξ={S,E,Ic,Iη,V,RR6+:S0,E0,Ic0,Iη0,V0,R0,max(|S|,|E|,|Ic|,|Iη|,|V|,|R|)ϕ}. Then, we will indicate that for each initial value in ¨Ξ, the solution of system (2.1) is unique.

    Theorem 3.2. The solution of system (2.1) is non-negative and ultimately uniformly bounded for all t>0.

    Proof. First, we will illustrate that the solution of system (2.1) is non-negative. From system (2.1), we get

    DϑS|S=0=Δ0,DϑE|E=0=β1SIc+β2SIη+εβ1VIc+εβ2VIη0,DϑIc|Ic=0=θγE0,DϑIη|Iη=0=(1θ)γE0,DϑV|V=0=κS0,DϑR|R=0=ϱV+d1Ic+d2Iη0.

    Hence, we can see that S(t),E(t),Ic(t),Iη(t),V(t),R(t)0 for any t0. Now, we figure out the solution of system (2.1) is uniformly bounded. Let N(t)=S(t)+E(t)+Ic(t)+Iη(t)+V(t)+R(t). Then,

    DϑN(t)ΔρN(t). (3.1)

    Applying the Laplace transform on Eq (3.1), we get

    sϑN(s)sϑ1N(0)sρN(s),sϑN(s)+ρN(s)s+sϑ1N(0),(sϑ+1+ρs)N(s)Δ+sϑN(0),N(s)Δ(sϑ+1+ρs)+sϑN(0)(sϑ+1+ρs).

    Then, by using the inverse Laplace transform, we find that

    0N(t)ΔtϑEϑ,ϑ+1(ρtϑ)+N(0)Eϑ(ρtϑ),

    where E is the Mittag-Leffler function. Thus, according to Lemma 5 and Corollary 6 in [41], we have

    0N(t)Δρ.

    Therefore, we find lim suptN(t)Δρ, implies that S(t),E(t),Ic(t),Iη(t),V(t),andR(t) are bounded. Thus,

    Ξ={(S(t),E(t),Ic(t),Iη(t),V(t),R(t))R6+:0S+E+Ic+Iη+V+RΔρ},

    is a positive invariant set with respect to system (2.1).

    Theorem 3.3. For any given initial conditions in ¨Ξ, such that S(0),E(0),Ic(0),Iη(0),V(0),R(0)>0, the model (2.1) has a unique solution on [0,) and it remains non-negative and bounded for all t>0.

    Proof. Let Ψ(χ)=(Ψ1(χ),Ψ2(χ),Ψ3(χ),Ψ4(χ),Ψ5(χ),Ψ6(χ)) be a mapping, where

    Ψ1(χ)=Δβ1SIcβ2SIη(κ+ρ)S,Ψ2(χ)=β1SIc+β2SIη+εβ1VIc+εβ2VIη(γ+ρ)E,Ψ3(χ)=θγE(d1+ρ)Ic,Ψ4(χ)=(1θ)γE(d2+ρ)Iη,Ψ5(χ)=κSεβ1VIcεβ2VIη(ϱ+ρ)V,Ψ6(χ)=ϱV+d1Ic+d2IηρR,

    and χ=(S,E,Ic,Iη,V,R). Suppose that φ and ˉφ are two arbitrary solutions of system (2.1), such that φ=(S,E,Ic,Iη,V,R),andˉφ=(ˉS,ˉE,¯Ic,¯Iη,ˉV,ˉR). Then, we obtain

    Ψ(φ)Ψ(ˉφ)=|β1(SIcˉS¯Ic)β2(SIηˉS¯Iη)(κ+ρ)(SˉS)|+|β1(SIcˉS¯Ic)+β2(SIηˉS¯Iη)+εβ1(VIcˉV¯Ic)+εβ2(VIηˉV¯Iη)(γ+ρ)(EˉE)|+|θγ(EˉE)(d1+ρ)(Ic¯Ic)|+|(1θ)γ(EˉE)(d2+ρ)(Iη¯Iη)|+|κ(SˉS)εβ1(VIcˉV¯Ic)εβ2(VIηˉV¯Iη)(ϱ+ρ)(VˉV)|+|ϱ(VˉV)+d1(Ic¯Ic)+d2(Iη¯Iη)ρ(RˉR)|,2β1|SIcˉS¯Ic|+2β2|SIηˉS¯Iη|+(2κ+ρ)|SˉS|+2εβ1|VIcˉV¯Ic|+2εβ2|VIηˉV¯Iη|+(2γ+ρ)|EˉE|+(2d1+ρ)|Ic¯Ic|+(2d2+ρ)|Iη¯Iη|+(2ϱ+ρ)|VˉV|+ρ|RˉR|,2β1|SIc+ˉSIcˉSIcˉS¯Ic|+2β2|SIη+ˉSIηˉSIηˉS¯Iη|+(2κ+ρ)|SˉS|+2εβ1|VIc+ˉVIcˉVIcˉV¯Ic|+2εβ2|VIη+ˉVIηˉVIηˉV¯Iη|+(2γ+ρ)|EˉE|+(2d1+ρ)|Ic¯Ic|+(2d2+ρ)|Iη¯Iη|+(2ϱ+ρ)|VˉV|+ρ|RˉR|,2β1|Ic||SˉS|+2β1|ˉS||IcˉIc|+2β2|Iη||SˉS|+2β2|ˉS||IηˉIη|+(2κ+ρ)|SˉS|+2εβ1|Ic||VˉV|+2εβ1|ˉV||Ic¯Ic|+2εβ2|ˉV||IηˉIη|+2εβ2|Iη||VˉV|+(2γ+ρ)|EˉE|+(2d1+ρ)|Ic¯Ic|+(2d2+ρ)|Iη¯Iη|+(2ϱ+ρ)|VˉV|+ρ|RˉR|,(2ϕ(β1+β2)+2κ+ρ)|SˉS|+(2ϕε(β1+β2)+2ϱ+ρ)|VˉV|+(2ϕ(1+ε)β1+2d1+ρ)|IcˉIc|+(2ϕ(1+ε)β2+2d2+ρ)|IηˉIη|+(2γ+ρ)|EˉE|+ρ|RˉR|,Λφˉφ,

    where,

    Λ=max{(2ϕ(β1+β2)+2κ+ρ),(2γ+ρ),(2ϕ(1+ε)β1+2d1+ρ),(2ϕ(1+ε)β2+2d2+ρ),(2ϕε(β1+β2)+2ϱ+ρ),ρ}.

    As a result, Ψ(χ) satisfies Lipschitz condition, implying that the solution of system (2.1) exists and unique.

    In this section, we calculate the basic reproduction number R0. Then, we explore the global stability analysis of the disease-free equilibrium point and endemic-equilibrium point by constructing the appropriate Lyaounov functions.

    It is observed that our system (2.1) always admits a disease-free equilibrium point U0=(S0,0,0,0,V0,R0), and to study the existence of the endemic equilibrium point U of the system (2.1), we establish the reproduction number R0 by employing the well-known method of the next generation matrix [42], which is a number of newly infected individuals generated from an infected individual at the beginning of the infectious process. Mathematically, it is a spectral radius of the next-generation matrix J1Π, where J represents the positive matrix of new infection cases, which is a derivative of the non-linear terms at U0, and Π denotes the matrix of the transition of the infections, which is a derivative of the linear terms at U0. For a system (2.1), we obtain

    J=(0β1(S0+εV0)β2(S0+εV0)000000),andΠ=(γ+ρ00θγd1+ρ0(1θ)γ0d2+ρ).

    Thus, we get

    J1Π=(γ(S0+εV0)(γ+ρ)(β1θd1+ρ+β2(1θ)d2+ρ)β1(S0+εV0)d1+ρβ2(S0+εV0)d2+ρ000000).

    Then, the basic reproduction number R0 is the spectral radius of the matrix J1Π, which is defined as

    R0=γ(S0+εV0)(γ+ρ)(β1θd1+ρ+β2(1θ)d2+ρ)=γ(S0+εV0)(γ+ρ)β1θd1+ρR0,1+γ(S0+εV0)(γ+ρ)β2(1θ)d2+ρR0,2.

    Since, R0,1 represents the average number of secondary cases caused by contact with the infected people without symptoms while R0,2 determines the average number of secondary cases related to infected people with symptoms.

    Lemma 4.1. The model (2.1) has a positive basic reproduction number R0 such that:

    (ⅰ) if R01, then there exists only one fixed point.

    (ⅱ) if R0>1, then there exist two equilibrium points.

    Proof. To calculate the equilibria of system (2.1), we set (S,E,Ic,Iη,V,R) as an equilibrium point that satisfies the following equations

    0=Δβ1SIcβ2SIη(κ+ρ)S, (4.1)
    0=β1SIc+β2SIη+εβ1VIc+εβ2VIη(γ+ρ)E, (4.2)
    0=θγE(d1+ρ)Ic, (4.3)
    0=(1θ)γE(d2+ρ)Iη, (4.4)
    0=κSεβ1VIcεβ2VIη(ϱ+ρ)V, (4.5)
    0=ϱV+d1Ic+d2IηρR. (4.6)

    Thus, from Eq (4.3) and Eq (4.4), we get

    Ic=θγEd1+ρ,andIη=(1θ)γEd2+ρ. (4.7)

    Substituting Eq (4.7) in Eq (4.1), we have

    S=Δ(β1θγd1+ρ+β2(1θ)γd2+ρ)E+(κ+ρ). (4.8)

    From substituting Eqs (4.7) and (4.8) in Eq (4.5), we obtain

    V=(κΔ(β1θγd1+ρ+β2(1θ)γd2+ρ)E+(κ+ρ))(1(β1θγd1+ρ+β2(1θ)γd2+ρ)εE+(ϱ+ρ)). (4.9)

    Substituting Eqs (4.7) and (4.9) in Eq (4.6), we find

    R=(1ρ)[(ϱκΔ(β1θγd1+ρ+β2(1θ)γd2+ρ)E+(κ+ρ))(1(β1θγd1+ρ+β2(1θ)γd2+ρ)εE+(ϱ+ρ))+d1θγEd1+ρ+d2(1θ)γEd2+ρ]. (4.10)

    Now, from substituting Eqs (4.7)–(4.9) into Eq (4.2), we have

    FE(K1E2+K2E+K3)=0, (4.11)

    where,

    F=1ε(β1θ(d1+ρ)+β2(1θ)(d2+ρ))2E2(β1θ(d1+ρ)+β2(1θ)(d2+ρ))((ρ+ϱ)+ε(κ+ρ))E(κ+ρ)(ρ+ϱ),K1=ε(ρ+γ)(β1θ(d1+ρ)+β2(1θ)(d2+ρ))2,K2=(β1θ(d1+ρ)+β2(1θ)(d2+ρ))[(ϱ+ρ)(ε(κ+ρ)+(γ+ρ))Δε(β1θ(d1+ρ)+β2(1θ)(d2+ρ))],K3=(1R0).

    Hence, from Eq (4.11) we see that,

    (ⅰ) if E=0, then from Eqs (4.7)–(4.10), we get the disease-free equilibrium point U0=(S0,0,0,0,V0,R0)=(Δκ+ρ,0,0,0,Δκ(ϱ+ρ)(κ+ρ),ϱΔκρ(ϱ+ρ)(κ+ρ)).

    (ⅱ) if E0, then we have K1E2+K2E+K3=0. Since K224K1K3>0 and K3<0 if and only if R0>1, that means there exist a positive real root E when R0>1. By substituting E into Eqs (4.7)–(4.10), we have

    Ic=θγEd1+ρ,andIη=(1θ)γEd2+ρ,S=Δ(β1θγd1+ρ+β2(1θ)γd2+ρ)E+(κ+ρ),V=(κΔ(β1θγd1+ρ+β2(1θ)γd2+ρ)E+(κ+ρ))(1(β1θγd1+ρ+β2(1θ)γd2+ρ)εE+(ϱ+ρ)),

    and

    R=(1ρ)[(ϱκΔ(β1θγd1+ρ+β2(1θ)γd2+ρ)E+(κ+ρ))(1(β1θγd1+ρ+β2(1θ)γd2+ρ)εE+(ϱ+ρ))+d1θγEd1+ρ+d2(1θ)γEd2+ρ].

    It is clear that the endemic equilibrium point U=(S,E,Ic,Iη,V,R) exists if R0>1.

    Clearly, from system (2.1), the equation of recovered group R can be ignored without any loss of generality since it does not appear in the rest of the equations. Furthermore, recovered equation R and the other equations have no transmission rates between them. Thus, in studying the stability of the equilibria, we will reduce the model (2.1) to the following system

    DϑS=Δβ1SIcβ2SIη(κ+ρ)S,DϑE=β1SIc+β2SIη+εβ1VIc+εβ2VIη(γ+ρ)E,DϑIc=θγE(d1+ρ)Ic,DϑIη=(1θ)γE(d2+ρ)Iη,DϑV=κSεβ1VIcεβ2VIη(ϱ+ρ)V. (4.12)

    Hence, we will clarify the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium point and endemic equilibrium point by establishing the Lyapunov function.

    Let the function T(u(t)):R+R+ be defined as T(u(t))=u(t)ucucln(u(t)uc), and note that T(u(t)) is non-negative for any u(t)>0. In addition, we set

    Θ={(S,E,Ic,Iη,V)R5+:S>0,E>0,Ic>0,Iη>0,V>0}.

    Lemma 4.2. [43] Assume χ(t)R+ is a continuous and derivable function. Then, for any tt0,

    Dϑ(χ(t)χcχcln(χ(t)χc))(1χcχ)Dϑχ(t),χcR+,ϑ(0,1).

    Theorem 4.3. The disease-free equilibrium point U0 is globally asymptotically stable (GAS) if R01.

    Proof. We construct a Lyapunov function ΘR5+ as follows

    Z(t)=ω1(T(S)+T(V)+E)+ω2Ic+ω3Iη,

    where, ω1=(ρ+d1)(ρ+d2)(S0+εV0),ω2=β1(ρ+d2),andω3=β2(ρ+d1). It is observe that Z is positive definite. The time derivative of Z along solutions of system (4.12) is given as

    DϑZω1(1S0S)DϑS+ω1DϑE+ω1(1V0V)DϑV+ω2DϑIc+ω3DϑIη,ω1(1S0S)(Δβ1SIcβ2SIη(κ+ρ)S)+ω1(β1SIc+β2SIη+εβ1VIc+εβ2VIη(γ+ρ)E)+ω1(1V0V)(κSεβ1VIcεβ2VIη(ϱ+ρ)V)+ω2(θγE(d1+ρ)Ic)+ω3((1θ)γE(d2+ρ)Iη).

    By using Δ=(κ+ρ)S0 and κS0=(ϱ+ρ)V0, we obtain

    DϑZω1(1S0S)(ρS0ρS)+ω1β1S0Ic+ω1β2S0Iη+ω1κS0ω1(γ+ρ)E+ω2θγEω2(d1+ρ)Ic+ω3γ(1θ)Eω3(d2+ρ)Iηω1(ϱ+ρ)Vω1κS(V0V)+ω1εβ1V0Ic+ω1εβ2V0Iη+ω1(ϱ+ρ)V0+ω1(1S0S)κS0,
    DϑZω1(1S0S)(ρS0ρS)+ω1κS0(2S0SV0SS0V)+ω1(ϱ+ρ)V0(1VV0)+((ρ+d1)(ρ+d2)S0+εV0(S0+εV0)β1(ρ+d1)(ρ+d2)β1))Ic+((ρ+d1)(ρ+d2)S0+εV0(S0+εV0)β2(ρ+d1)(ρ+d2)β2))Iη+(γ(ρ+d2)β1θ+γ(ρ+d1)β2(1θ)(ρ+d1)(ρ+d2)S0+εV0(ρ+γ))E.

    Then,

    DϑZω1(1S0S)(ρS0ρS)+ω1κS0(2S0SV0SS0V)+ω1κS0(1VV0)+((ρ+d2)β1θγ+(ρ+d1)β2(1θ)γ(ρ+d1)(ρ+d2)S0+εV0(ρ+γ))E.

    Therefore,

    DϑZω1(1S0S)(ρS0ρS)+ω1κS0(3S0SV0SS0VVV0)+((S0+εV0)(ρ+d2)β1θγ(ρ+d1)(ρ+d2)(ρ+γ)+(S0+εV0)(ρ+d1)β2(1θ)γ(ρ+d1)(ρ+d2)(ρ+γ)1)E.

    Hence,

    DϑZ(ρ+d1)(ρ+d2)ρS(S0+εV0)(SS0)2+κS0(ρ+d1)(ρ+d2)S0+εV0(3S0SV0SS0VVV0)+(R01)E.

    Thus, since the geometric mean is less than or equal arithmetical mean, we obtain

    3S0S+V0SVS0+VV0.

    Moreover, when R01, DϑZ0 for all S,E,Ic,Iη,V>0. Note that DϑZ=0 if and only if S=S0,E=0, and V=V0. Hence, the subset H is the largest invariant set of H={(S,E,Ic,Iη,V)Θ:DϑZ=0}. By applying La Salle's invariant principle [44], we observe that all solutions converge to H. In H, the elements are equal to S=S0,V=V0, and E=0. Also, from the system (4.12), we obtain Ic=0 and Iη=0 when E=0. Thus, H={(S,E,Ic,Iη,V)H:S=S0,V=V0,E=Ic=Iη=0}={U0}. Therefore, U0 is GAS when R0<1.

    Theorem 4.4. The endemic equilibrium point U is GAS when R0>1.

    Proof. We define a Lyapunov function as follows:

    DϑˉZ=T(S)+T(E)+β1Ic(S+εV)θγET(Ic)+β2Iη(S+εV)(1θ)γET(Iη)+T(V).

    Note that ˉZ is positive definite. By calculating the time derivative of ˉZ along the solutions of system (4.12), we obtain

    DϑˉZ(1SS)DϑS+(1EE)DϑE+β1Ic(S+εV)θγE(1IcIc)DϑIc+β2Iη(S+εV)(1θ)γE(1IηIη)DϑIη+(1VV)DϑV,
    DϑˉZ(1SS)(Δβ1SIcβ2SIη(κ+ρ)S)+(1EE)(β1SIc+β2SIη+εβ1VIc+εβ2VIη(γ+ρ)E)+β1Ic(S+εV)θγE(1IcIc)(θγE(d1+ρ)Ic)+β2Iη(S+εV)(1θ)γE(1IηIη)((1θ)γE(d2+ρ)Iη)+(1VV)(κSεβ1VIcεβ2VIη(ϱ+ρ)V).

    From the equilibria, we have the following relationships

    {Δ=β1SIc+β2SIη+(κ+ρ)S,θγE=(d1+ρ)Ic,(1θ)γE=(d2+ρ)Iη(ϱ+ρ)V=κSεβ1IcVεβ2IηVκS=(ϱ+ρ)V+εβ1V Ic+εβ2VIη,(γ+ρ)E=β1SIc+β2SIη+εβ1VIc+εβ2VIη.

    After substituting the above relationships and then eliminating some terms, we obtain

    DϑˉZ(1SS)((κ+ρ)S(κ+ρ)S)+(1SS)β1SIc+(1SS)β2SIη+β1SIc+β2SIη(γ+ρ)E(EE)β1SIc(EE)β2SIη(EE)εβ1VIc(EE)εβ2VIη+(β1SIc+β2SIη+εβ1VIc+εβ2VIη)+(β1Ic(S+εV)θγE)θγE(β1Ic(S+εV)θγE)(d1+ρ)Ic(β1Ic(S+εV)θγE)(IcIc)θγE+(β1Ic(S+εV)θγE)(d1+ρ)Ic+(β2Iη(S+εV)(1θ)γE)(1θ)γE(β2Iη(S+εV)(1θ)γE)(d2+ρ)Iη(IηIη)(β2Iη(S+εV)(1θ)γE)(1θ)γE+(β2Iη(S+εV)(1θ)γE)(d2+ρ)Iη(1VV)(ρ+ϱ)V+(1VV)κS+εβ1VIc+εβ2VIη.
    DϑˉZ(κ+ρ)(SS)2S+(1SS)(β1SIc+β2SIη)+β1SIc+β2SIηEEβ1SIcEEβ2SIηEEεβ1VIcEEεβ2VIη(γ+ρ)E+EE(β1SIc+εβ1VIc+β2SIη+εβ2VIη)β1SIcβ2SIη(IcEIcE)β1SIc(IcEIcE)εβ1VIc(IηEIηE)β2SIη(IηEIηE)εβ2VIη+2β1SIc+2εβ1VIc+2β2SIη+2εβ2VIηεβ1VIcεβ2VIη+εβ1VIc+εβ2VIη(1VV)(ρ+ϱ)V+(1VV)κS.

    Hence,

    DϑˉZ(κ+ρ)(SS)2S+(1SS)(β1SIc+β2SIη)(γ+ρ)EEEβ1SIcEEβ2SIηEEεβ1VIcEEεβ2VIη+EE(ρ+γ)E(IcEIcE)β1SIc(IcEIcE)εβ1VIc(IηEIηE)β2SIη(IηEIηE)εβ2VIη+2β1SIc+2εβ1VIc+2β2SIη+2εβ2VIη(1VV)(ρ+ϱ)V+(1VV)κS.

    Therefore,

    DϑˉZ(κ+ρ)(SS)2S+β1SIc(3SSSIcESIcEEIcEIc)(γ+ρ)E+β2SIη(3SSSIηESIηEEIηEIη)+(γ+ρ)E+εβ1VIc(2VIcEVIcEEIcEIc)+εβ2VIη(2VIηEVIηEEIηEIη)(1VV)(ρ+ϱ)V+(1VV)κS.

    Then,

    DϑˉZ(κ+ρ)(SS)2S+β1SIc(3SSSIcESIcEEIcEIc)(γ+ρ)E+β2SIη(3SSSIηESIηEEIηEIη)+(γ+ρ)E+εβ1VIc(2VIcEVIcEEIcEIc)+εβ2VIη(2VIηEVIηEEIηEIη)(1VV)(ρ+ϱ)V+(1VV)κS+(1VV)(εβ1VIc+εβ2VIη)(1VV)(εβ1VIc+εβ2VIη).

    We obtain,

    DϑˉZ(κ+ρ)(SS)2S+β1SIc(3SSSIcESIcEEIcEIc)(γ+ρ)E+β2SIη(3SSSIηESIηEEIηEIη)+(γ+ρ)E+εβ1VIc(3VVVIcEVIcEEIcEIc)+εβ2VIη(3VVVIηEVIηEEIηEIη)(1VV)(ρ+ϱ)V+(1VV)κS(1VV)(κS(ρ+ϱ)V).

    Thus,

    DϑˉZρ(SS)2S+β1SIc(3SSSIcESIcEEIcEIc)(γ+ρ)E+β2SIη(3SSSIηESIηEEIηEIη)+(γ+ρ)E+εβ1VIc(3VVVIcEVIcEEIcEIc)+εβ2VIη(3VVVIηEVIηEEIηEIη)(ρ+ϱ)(VV)2V+κS(1SSSVSV+VV).

    Therefore,

    DϑˉZρ(SS)2S+β1SIc(3SSSIcESIcEEIcEIc)(γ+ρ)E+β2SIη(3SSSIηESIηEEIηEIη)+(γ+ρ)E+εβ1VIc(3VVVIcEVIcEEIcEIc)+εβ2VIη(3VVVIηEVIηEEIηEIη)(ρ+ϱ)(VV)2V+(εβ1VIc+εβ2VIη+(ρ+ϱ)V)(1SSSVSV+VV).

    Finally, we have

    DϑˉZρ(SS)2S+β1SIc(3SSSIcESIcEEIcEIc)+β2SIη(3SSSIηESIηEEIηEIη)+εβ1VIc(4SSSVSVVIcEVIcEEIcEIc)+(ρ+ϱ)V(3SSSVSVVV)+εβ2VIη(4SSSVSVVIηEVIηEEIηEIη).

    Now, from the geometrical and arithmetical means relationship, we have

    3SS+SIcESIcE+EIcEIc,
    3SS+SIηESIηE+EIηEIη,
    4SS+SVSV+VIcEVIcE+EIcEIc,
    4SS+SVSV+VIηEVIηE+EIηEIη.

    As a result, DϑˉZ0 if R0>1 for all S,E,Ic,Iη,V>0. Moreover, DϑˉZ=0 if and only if S=S,E=E,Ic=Ic,Iη=Iη and V=V. Suppose that ˉH is the largest subset of ˉH={(S,E,Ic,Iη,V):DϑˉZ=0}. Then, ˉH={U}. Therefore, from La Salle's invariant principle [44], the endemic equilibrium point U is GAS when R0>1.

    A valuable insight into how changes in various parameters impact the overall dynamics of the system can be provided by the sensitivity analysis of the model with respect to the basic reproduction number R0. Now, to study the sensitivity, we calculate the partial derivatives of R0 with respect to each parameter. Thus, we have

    R0=γ((ϱ+ρ+εκ))(γ+ρ)(ϱ+ρ)(β1θd1+ρ+β2(1θ)d2+ρ)Δκ+ρ. (5.1)

    Then, we see that

    R0β1=Δθγ(ϱ+ρ+εκ)(ϱ+ρ)(d1+p)(κ+ρ)(ρ+γ)>0, (5.2)
    R0β2=Δ(1θ)γ(ϱ+ρ+εκ)(ϱ+ρ)(d2+p)(κ+ρ)(ρ+γ)>0, (5.3)
    R0d1=Δθβ1γ(ϱ+ρ+εκ)(ϱ+ρ)(d1+ρ)2(κ+ρ)(ρ+γ)<0, (5.4)
    R0d2=Δ(1θ)β2γ(ϱ+ρ+εκ)(ϱ+ρ)(d2+ρ)2(κ+ρ)(ρ+γ)<0, (5.5)
    R0κ=(θβ1(ρ+d2)+(1θ)β2(d1+ρ))(Δγ(ϱ+(1ε)ρ))(ϱ+ρ)(d1+ρ)(d2+ρ)(κ+ρ)2(ρ+γ)<0, (5.6)
    R0Δ=γ((ϱ+ρ+εκ))(β1θ(d2+ρ)+β2(1θ)(d1+ρ))(ϱ+ρ)(d1+ρ)(d2+ρ)(κ+ρ)(ρ+γ)>0, (5.7)
    R0ε=γΔκ(θβ1(ρ+d2)+(1θ)β2(d1+ρ))(ϱ+ρ)(d1+ρ)(d2+ρ)(κ+ρ)(ρ+γ)>0, (5.8)
    R0ϱ=(γΔεκ(θβ1(ρ+d2)+(1θ)β2(d1+ρ)))(ϱ+ρ)2(d1+ρ)(d2+ρ)(κ+ρ)(ρ+γ)<0, (5.9)
    R0γ=Δρ(ρ+ϱ+εκ)(β1θ(d2+ρ)+β2(1θ)(d1+ρ))(ϱ+ρ)(d1+ρ)(d2+ρ)(κ+ρ)(ρ+γ)2>0, (5.10)

    and

    R0ρ=(θβ1(ρ+d2)+(1θ)β2(d1+ρ))γΔ(1(ϱ+ρ+εκ)˙ξ)((d1+ρ)(d2+ρ)(κ+ρ)(γ+ρ)(ϱ+ρ))2, (5.11)

    where ˙ξ=(d1+ρ)(d2+ρ)(κ+ρ)(γ+ρ)+(ϱ+ρ)(d2+ρ)(κ+ρ)(γ+ρ)+(d1+ρ)(ϱ+ρ)(κ+ρ)(γ+ρ)+(d1+ρ)(d2+ρ)(ϱ+ρ)(γ+ρ)+(d1+ρ)(d2+ρ)(κ+ρ)(ϱ+ρ). Therefore, an increase in the value of β1,β2,Δ,ε, and γ would result in a rise in R0 while no change occurs if ρ varies. Conversely, the rest parameters would indicate the opposite effect.

    In this subsection, we will illustrate that our theoretical investigations are confirmed with numerical results. Therefore, we set three groups of initial conditions:

    IC1:S(0)=25,E(0)=3,Ic(0)=6,Iη(0)=5,V(0)=5,R(0)=10.

    IC2:S(0)=50,E(0)=6,Ic(0)=12,Iη(0)=1,V(0)=5,R(0)=5.

    IC3:S(0)=60,E(0)=15,Ic(0)=1,Iη(0)=1,V(0)=10,R(0)=8.

    Now, we assume that values of the parameters are Δ=10,κ=0.4,γ=0.8,ρ=0.2,ϱ=0.2,d1=d2=0.2,θ=0.5,ε=0.3 while β1 and β2, varied. Additionally, we plot the solutions of the system (2.1) at different values of ϑ (0.95,0.85,0.75, and 1) by using predictor-corrector PECE method of Adams-Bashforth-Moulton [45]. Then, we will study the following cases:

    Ⅰ: The effect of β1 and β2 on the stability

    By setting β1=0.02,β2=0.02 and using IC1, we obtain R0=0.6933<1, and the result is given in Figure 2. The solution trajectories converge to U0=(S0,E0,Ic,0,Iη,0,V0,R0)=(16.67,0,0,0,16.67,16.67). This ensures that U0 is GAS based on the result of Theorem 4.3. This means the spread of the infectious disease is decreasing.

    Figure 2.  Solution of system (2.1) when R01.

    By setting β1=0.2,β2=0.02 and using IC1, we obtain R0=3.8133>1, and the result is given in Figure 3. The solution trajectories converge to U=(S,E,Ic,Iη,V,R)=(4.96,8.04,6.43,6.43,2.40,21.71). Also, when β1=0.1,β2=0.1, we get R0=3.4667>1, as shown in Figure 4, and it is clear that the solutions tend to U=(S,E,Ic,Iη,V,R)=(5.41,7.79,6.23,6.23,2.79,21.51). This prove that, from Figures 3 and 4, the equilibrium point U is GAS based on the result of Theorem 4.4. Biologically, this indicates there is an outbreak of infectious disease.

    Figure 3.  Solution of system (2.1) when R0>1.
    Figure 4.  Solution of system (2.1) when R0>1.

    In Figure 5, we plot the solutions at different initial conditions and ϑ=0.95, and we also assume that β1=0.02,β2=0.02. Then we have R0=0.6933 and β1=0.2,β2=0.02, which implies R0=3.8133. Thus, we observe that the results support the theoretical results of Theorems 4.3 and 4.4. Finally, we notice that the proposed fractional system converts to the following ODE system at ϑ=1

    DS=Δβ1SIcβ2SIη(κ+ρ)S,DE=β1SIc+β2SIη+εβ1VIc+εβ2VIη(γ+ρ)E,DIc=θγE(d1+ρ)Ic,DIη=(1θ)γE(d2+ρ)Iη,DV=κSεβ1VIcεβ2VIη(ϱ+ρ)V,DR=ϱV+d1Ic+d2IηρR. (5.12)
    Figure 5.  Solution of system (2.1) at different initial conditions.

    Then, we solve the ODE system (5.12) by using the Runge-Kutta method (rk4). Figures 24 show that the solution of system (2.1) is consistent with the solution of system (5.12) when ϑ is equal to one. In addition, from Figures 24, we conclude that the increasing of fractional order reduces the outbreak of the infectious disease.

    Ⅱ: The effect of κ on equilibrium point

    In this part, we select different values of κ to examine the effect of the vaccination rate κ on the transmission of the infectious disease. We fix the values Δ=10,ε=0.3,γ=0.8,ρ=0.2ϱ=0.2,d1=d2=0.2,θ=0.5, and β1=β2=0.1 with IC2. Table 2 illustrates that increasing κ leads to decreasing R0 and the number of infected individuals. This result is shown in Figure 6.

    Table 2.  Effect of the parameter κ.
    κ The equilibrium point R0
    0.01 (6.22, 8.72, 6.97, 6.97, 0.07, 21.01) 7.6762
    0.03 (6.18, 8.67, 6.93, 6.93, 0.22, 21.04) 7.1130
    0.08 (6.07, 8.54, 6.83, 6.83, 0.59, 21.11) 6.0571
    0.6 (5.04, 7.38, 5.90, 5.90, 4.01, 21.73) 2.9000
    0.9 (4.55, 6.83, 5.46, 5.46, 5.63, 22.03) 2.4364

     | Show Table
    DownLoad: CSV
    Figure 6.  Solution of system (2.1) with different values of κ.

    In this work, we presented a SEIcIηVR epidemic model with two types of infected individuals and a vaccination strategy. The model has six compartments: susceptible S(t), exposed E(t), asymptomatic infected Ic(t), symptomatic infected Iη(t), vaccinated V(t), and recovered R(t). We proved the existence, positivity, and boundedness of all solutions in this model. By applying the next-generation method, we calculated the basic reproduction number R0 that controls the existence and stability of the equilibria. By applying the Lyapunov method together with LaSalle's invariance principle, we derived that if the basic reproduction number R0 is less than one, then the free-disease equilibrium point is GAS and if R0 is greater than one, then the endemic equilibrium point is GAS. In addition, the effect of the vaccination rate κ is illustrated numerically and we conclude that, as κ increases, R0 is decreased. This means the vaccine can be useful in reducing the spread of infectious diseases. Finally, some of the numerical simulations were introduced to support our theoretical results by using MATLAB.

    The authors declare they have not used Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools in the creation of this article.

    The author declare no conflict of interest.



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