Real-world validation of fractional-order model for COVID-19 vaccination impact

Sara Salem Alzaid; Badr Saad T. Alkahtani; Sara Salem Alzaid; Badr Saad T. Alkahtani

doi:10.3934/math.2024181

AIMS Mathematics

2024, Volume 9, Issue 2: 3685-3706. doi: 10.3934/math.2024181

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Real-world validation of fractional-order model for COVID-19 vaccination impact

Sara Salem Alzaid ¹,
Badr Saad T. Alkahtani ^{2
,
,}

1.
Department of Mathematics, King Saud University, P.O. Box 2455, Riyadh 11451, Saudi Arabi
2.
Department of Mathematics, College of Science, King Saud University, P.O. Box 1142, Riyadh 11989, Saudi Arabia

Received: 09 September 2023 Revised: 11 December 2023 Accepted: 19 December 2023 Published: 09 January 2024
MSC : 34A08, 37N25

In this manuscript, we develop a fractional-order mathematical model to characterize the propagation dynamics of COVID-19 outbreaks and assess the influence of vaccination interventions. The model comprises a set of eight nonlinear fractional-order differential equations in the Caputo sense. To establish the existence and uniqueness of solutions, we employ the fixed-point technique. Furthermore, we employ the effective fractional Adams-Bashforth numerical scheme to explore both the approximate solutions and the dynamic behavior inherent to the examined model. All of the results are numerically visualized through the consideration of various fractional orders. Furthermore, the real data from three different countries are compared with the simulated results, and good agreements are obtained, revealing the effectiveness of this work.
- COVID-19,
- Caputo operator,
- existence and uniqueness solution,
- Adams-Bashforth scheme
Citation: Sara Salem Alzaid, Badr Saad T. Alkahtani. Real-world validation of fractional-order model for COVID-19 vaccination impact[J]. AIMS Mathematics, 2024, 9(2): 3685-3706. doi: 10.3934/math.2024181

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Abstract

In this manuscript, we develop a fractional-order mathematical model to characterize the propagation dynamics of COVID-19 outbreaks and assess the influence of vaccination interventions. The model comprises a set of eight nonlinear fractional-order differential equations in the Caputo sense. To establish the existence and uniqueness of solutions, we employ the fixed-point technique. Furthermore, we employ the effective fractional Adams-Bashforth numerical scheme to explore both the approximate solutions and the dynamic behavior inherent to the examined model. All of the results are numerically visualized through the consideration of various fractional orders. Furthermore, the real data from three different countries are compared with the simulated results, and good agreements are obtained, revealing the effectiveness of this work.

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