A compartmental model for the spread of Nipah virus in a periodic environment

Saumen Barua; Mahmoud A. Ibrahim; Attila Dénes; Saumen Barua; Mahmoud A. Ibrahim; Attila Dénes

doi:10.3934/math.20231516

AIMS Mathematics

2023, Volume 8, Issue 12: 29604-29627. doi: 10.3934/math.20231516

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Research article

A compartmental model for the spread of Nipah virus in a periodic environment

1.
Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, Aradi vértanúk tere 1., Szeged 6720, Hungary
2.
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Mansoura University, Mansoura 35516, Egypt
3.
National Laboratory for Health Security, Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, Aradi vértanúk tere 1., Szeged 6720, Hungary

Received: 25 July 2023 Revised: 14 September 2023 Accepted: 21 September 2023 Published: 01 November 2023
MSC : 34A99, 92D30

Nipah virus (NiV) is a zoonotic virus that causes outbreaks of fatal disease in humans. Fruit bat, also known as the flying fox, is the animal host reservoir for NiV. It is known to cause illness in pigs, which are considered an intermediate host. In this paper, we propose a model for NiV disease transmission taking into account all human-to-host animal transmission as well as the loss of immunity in those who have recovered. Furthermore, we take into consideration seasonal effects such as varying transmission rate from bats and birth rate of bats. We studied the existence and uniqueness of a disease-free $ \omega $-periodic solution and later deals with the basic reproduction number and stability analysis. To support the analytical results we provide numerical examples and assess the effect of parameter changes on disease dynamics, which might help to understand how to avoid a yearly periodic recurrence of the disease.
- Nipah virus,
- periodic compartmental model,
- loss of immunity,
- periodic solution
Citation: Saumen Barua, Mahmoud A. Ibrahim, Attila Dénes. A compartmental model for the spread of Nipah virus in a periodic environment[J]. AIMS Mathematics, 2023, 8(12): 29604-29627. doi: 10.3934/math.20231516

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Abstract

Nipah virus (NiV) is a zoonotic virus that causes outbreaks of fatal disease in humans. Fruit bat, also known as the flying fox, is the animal host reservoir for NiV. It is known to cause illness in pigs, which are considered an intermediate host. In this paper, we propose a model for NiV disease transmission taking into account all human-to-host animal transmission as well as the loss of immunity in those who have recovered. Furthermore, we take into consideration seasonal effects such as varying transmission rate from bats and birth rate of bats. We studied the existence and uniqueness of a disease-free $ \omega $-periodic solution and later deals with the basic reproduction number and stability analysis. To support the analytical results we provide numerical examples and assess the effect of parameter changes on disease dynamics, which might help to understand how to avoid a yearly periodic recurrence of the disease.

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