Research article

An SIHR epidemic model of the COVID-19 with general population-size dependent contact rate

  • Received: 26 June 2020 Accepted: 21 August 2020 Published: 28 August 2020
  • MSC : 92D30, 34D05

  • Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) which was firstly reported in Wuhan city last December, and then spread throughout the country rapidly. In this paper, we propose an SIHR model that predicts the course of the epidemic to help plan an effective control strategy. The values of parameters in the model are estimated on the basis of fitting to the reported data of COVID-19 from February 5 to March 17, 2020, in Hubei province. The results showed that (i) the peak of total confirmed cases will arrive around late February of 2020, (ii) the cumulative number of confirmed cases to be around 68,000 cases, (iii) the disease will end in mid-May of 2020. All these findings are consistent with the actual situation of Hubei province. Based on the empirical results, it is recommended to strengthen community closures and increase medical resources, which is the key to controlling the spread of COVID-19 in Hubei province.

    Citation: Shuyun Jiao, Mingzhan Huang. An SIHR epidemic model of the COVID-19 with general population-size dependent contact rate[J]. AIMS Mathematics, 2020, 5(6): 6714-6725. doi: 10.3934/math.2020431

    Related Papers:

  • Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) which was firstly reported in Wuhan city last December, and then spread throughout the country rapidly. In this paper, we propose an SIHR model that predicts the course of the epidemic to help plan an effective control strategy. The values of parameters in the model are estimated on the basis of fitting to the reported data of COVID-19 from February 5 to March 17, 2020, in Hubei province. The results showed that (i) the peak of total confirmed cases will arrive around late February of 2020, (ii) the cumulative number of confirmed cases to be around 68,000 cases, (iii) the disease will end in mid-May of 2020. All these findings are consistent with the actual situation of Hubei province. Based on the empirical results, it is recommended to strengthen community closures and increase medical resources, which is the key to controlling the spread of COVID-19 in Hubei province.


    加载中


    [1] World Health Organization, Available from: https://www.who.int/data#reports.
    [2] National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China, Available from: http://www.nhc.gov.cn/.
    [3] Health Commission of Hubei Province, Available from: http://wjw.hubei.gov.cn/.
    [4] T. Alberti, D. Faranda, On the uncertainty of real-time predictions of epidemic growths: A COVID- 19 case study for China and Italy, Commun. Nonlinear. Sci., 90 (2020), 105372.
    [5] L. Bertozzia, E. Francob, G. Mohlerd, et al., The challenges of modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117 (2020), 16732-16738. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2006520117
    [6] D. Faranda, I. Castillo, O. Hulme, et al., Asymptotic estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection counts and their sensitivity to stochastic perturbation, Chaos, 30 (2020), 051107.
    [7] B. Tang, X. Wang, Q. Li, et al., Estimation of the transmission risk of the 2019-nCoV and its implication for public health interventions, J. Clin. Med., 9 (2020), 462.
    [8] B. Tang, F. Xia, S. Tang, et al., The effectiveness of quarantine and isolation determine the trend of the COVID-19 epidemics in the final phase of the current outbreak in China, Int. J. Infect. Dis., 95 (2020), 288-293. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.03.018
    [9] S. He, S. Tang, L. Rong, et al., A discrete stochastic model of the COVID-19 outbreak: Forecast and control, Math. Biosci. Eng., 17 (2020), 2792-2804. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2020153
    [10] Q. Lin, S. Zhao, D. Gao, et al., A conceptual model for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China with individual reaction and governmental action, Int. J. Infec. Dis., 93 (2020), 211-216. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.058
    [11] H. Hu, X. Yuan, L. Huang, et al., Global dynamics of an SIRS model with demographics and transfer from infectious to susceptible on heterogeneous networks, Math. Biosci. Eng., 16 (2019), 5729-5749. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2019286
    [12] C. Huang, H. Zhang, J. Cao, et al., Stability and hopf bifurcation of a delayed prey-predator model with disease in the predator, Int. J. Bifurcat. Chaos, 29 (2019), 1950091.
    [13] C. Huang, Z. Yang, T. Yi, et al., On the basins of attraction for a class of delay differential equations with non-monotone bistable nonlinearities, J. Differ. Equations, 256 (2014), 2101-2114. doi: 10.1016/j.jde.2013.12.015
    [14] C. Huang, J. Cao, F. Wen, et al., Stability analysis of SIR model with distributed delay on complex networks, Plos One, 11 (2016), e0158813.
    [15] L. Duan, Z. Xu, A note on the dynamics analysis of a diffusive cholera epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate, Appl. Math. Lett., 106 (2020), 106356.
    [16] J. Zhang, J. Li, Z. Ma, Global Analysis of SIR Epidemic Models with Population Size Dependent Contact Rate, Chinese J. Eng. Math., 21 (2004), 259-267.
    [17] R. Anderson, Transmission dynamics and control of infectious disease agents//Population Biology of Infectious Diseases, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1982.
    [18] K. Dietz, Overall Population Patterns in the Transmission Cycle of Infectious Disease Agents//Population Biology of Infectious Diseases, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1982.
    [19] J. Heesterbeek, J. Metz, The saturating contact rate in marriage and epidemic models, J. Math. Biol., 31 (1993), 529-539.
    [20] J. Zhang, Z. Ma, Global dynamics of an SEIR epidemic model with saturating contact rate, Math. Biosci., 185 (2003), 15-32. doi: 10.1016/S0025-5564(03)00087-7
    [21] P. van den Driessche, J. Watmough, Reproduction numbers and subthreshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission, Math. Biosci., 180 (2002), 29-48. doi: 10.1016/S0025-5564(02)00108-6
    [22] Least Squares Method, Available from: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/least-squares-method.asp.
  • Reader Comments
  • © 2020 the Author(s), licensee AIMS Press. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)
通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
  • 1. 

    沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

  1. 本站搜索
  2. 百度学术搜索
  3. 万方数据库搜索
  4. CNKI搜索

Metrics

Article views(4237) PDF downloads(166) Cited by(11)

Article outline

Figures and Tables

Figures(5)

Other Articles By Authors

/

DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
Return
Return

Catalog