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Research article

An evaluation of quantitative easing effectiveness based on out-of-sample forecasts

  • Received: 23 August 2022 Revised: 17 October 2022 Accepted: 27 October 2022 Published: 04 November 2022
  • JEL Codes: E44, E47, E58

  • A line of defense of quantitative easing (QE) policies has been developed around empirical evidence that time series models do not predict long-term asset prices and yields as well as naive random walk forecasts, implying that predictions of price reversals cannot be profitable and, therefore, that QE effects are not reversed. However, in this work we present evidence that for the Eurozone, Sweden, and the UK, which have pursued QE interventions, a random walk does not beat a Markov switching regimes model in out-of-sample forecasting and, at the same time, the switching process provides additional information regarding the likelihood of price reversals, thus inducing market participants to offset the effects of QE interventions whenever they perceive unconventional monetary policy regimes as temporary.

    Citation: Dimitris G. Kirikos. An evaluation of quantitative easing effectiveness based on out-of-sample forecasts[J]. National Accounting Review, 2022, 4(4): 378-389. doi: 10.3934/NAR.2022021

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  • A line of defense of quantitative easing (QE) policies has been developed around empirical evidence that time series models do not predict long-term asset prices and yields as well as naive random walk forecasts, implying that predictions of price reversals cannot be profitable and, therefore, that QE effects are not reversed. However, in this work we present evidence that for the Eurozone, Sweden, and the UK, which have pursued QE interventions, a random walk does not beat a Markov switching regimes model in out-of-sample forecasting and, at the same time, the switching process provides additional information regarding the likelihood of price reversals, thus inducing market participants to offset the effects of QE interventions whenever they perceive unconventional monetary policy regimes as temporary.



    Consider the pseudo-parabolic equation in the domain Ω={(x,t):0<x<l,  t>0}:

    ut=2tx(k(x)ux)+x(k(x)ux),(x,t)Ω, (1.1)

    with boundary conditions

    u(0,t)= μ(t),u(l,t)=0,t>0, (1.2)

    and initial condition

    u(x,0)=0,0xl. (1.3)

    Assume that the function k(x)C2([0,l]) satisfies the conditions

    k(x)>0,k(x)0,0xl.

    The condition (1.2) means that there is a magnitude of output given by a measurable real-valued function μ(t) (See [1,2,3] for more information).

    Definition 1. If function μ(t)W12(R+) satisfies the conditions μ(0)=0 and |μ(t)|1, we say that this function is an admissible control.

    Problem B. For the given function θ(t) Problem B consists looking for the admissible control μ(t) such that the solution u(x,t) of the initial-boundary problem (1.1)-(1.3) exists and for all t0 satisfies the equation

    l0u(x,t)dx=θ(t). (1.4)

    One of the models is the theory of incompressible simple fluids with decaying memory, which can be described by equation (1) (see [1]). In [2], stability, uniqueness, and availability of solutions of some classical problems for the considered equation were studied (see also [4,5]). Point control problems for parabolic and pseudo-parabolic equations were considered. Some problems with distributed parameters impulse control problems for systems were studied in [3,6]. More recent results concerned with this problem were established in [7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15]. Detailed information on the problems of optimal control for distributed parameter systems is given in [16] and in the monographs [17,18,19,20]. General numerical optimization and optimal boundary control have been studied in a great number of publications such as [21]. The practical approaches to optimal control of the heat conduction equation are described in publications like [22].

    Control problems for parabolic type equations are considered in works [13,14] and [15]. In this work, such control problems are considered for the pseudo-parabolic equation.

    Consider the following eigenvalue problem

    ddx(k(x)dvk(x)dx)=λkvk(x),0<x<l, (1.5)

    with boundary condition

    vk(0)=vk(l)=0,0xl. (1.6)

    It is well-know that this problem is self-adjoint in L2(Ω) and there exists a sequence of eigenvalues {λk} so that 0<λ1λ2...λk,  k. The corresponding eigenfuction vk form a complete orthonormal system {vk}kϵN in L2(Ω) and these function belong to C(ˉΩ), where ˉΩ=ΩΩ (see, [23,24]).

    Definition 2. By the solution of the problem (1.1)–(1.3) we understand the function u(x,t) represented in the form

    u(x,t)=lxlμ(t)v(x,t), (2.1)

    where the function v(x,t)C2,1x,t(Ω)C(ˉΩ), vxC(ˉΩ) is the solution to the problem:

    vt=2tx(k(x)vx)+x(k(x)vx)+
    +k(x)lμ(t)+k(x)lμ(t)+lxlμ(t),

    with boundary conditions

    v(0,t)=0,v(l,t)=0,

    and initial condition

    v(x,0)=0.

    Set

    βk=(λkakbk)γk, (2.2)

    where

    ak=l0lxlvk(x)dx,bk=l0k(x)lvk(x)dx, (2.3)

    and

    γk=l0vk(x)dx. (2.4)

    Consequently, we have

    v(x,t)=k=1vk(x)1+λkt0eμk(ts)(μ(s)ak+μ(s)bk+μ(s)bk)ds, (2.5)

    where ak, bk defined by (2.3) and μk=λk1+λk.

    From (2.1) and (2.5) we get the solution of the problem (1.1)–(1.3) (see, [23,25]):

    u(x,t)=lxlμ(t)k=1vk(x)1+λkt0eμk(ts)(μ(s)ak+μ(s)bk+μ(s)bk)ds.

    According to condition (1.4) and the solution of the problem (1.1)-(1.3), we may write

    θ=l0u(x,t)dx=μ(t)l0lxldxk=111+λk(t0eμk(ts)(μ(s)ak+μ(s)bk+μ(s)bk)ds)l0vk(x)dx=μ(t)l0lxldxk=1bkγk1+λkt0eμk(ts)μ(s)dsk=1(ak+bk)γk1+λkt0eμk(ts)μ(s)ds=μ(t)l0lxldxk=1bkγk1+λkt0eμk(ts)μ(s)dsμ(t)k=1(ak+bk)γk1+λk+k=1(ak+bk)λkγk(1+λk)2t0eμk(ts)μ(s)ds. (2.6)

    where γk defined by (2.4).

    Note that

    l0lxldx=l0(k=1akvk(x))dx=k=1akγk. (2.7)

    Thus, from (2.6) and (2.7) we get

    θ(t)=μ(t)k=1βk1+λk+k=1βk(1+λk)2t0eμk(ts)μ(s)ds,t>0, (2.8)

    where βk defined by (2.2).

    Set

    B(t)=k=1βk(1+λk)2eμkt,t>0, (2.9)

    and

    δ=k=1βk1+λk.

    According to (2.8) and (2.9), we have the following integral equation

    δμ(t)+t0B(ts)μ(s)ds=θ(t),t>0. (2.10)

    Proposition 1. For the cofficients {βk}k=1 the estimate

    0βkC,k=1,2,...

    is valid.

    Proof. Step 1. Now we use (1.5) and (2.3). Then consider the following equality

    λkak=l0lxlλkvk(x)dx=l0lxlddx(k(x)dvk(x)dx)dx
    =(lxlk(x)vk(x)|x=lx=0+1ll0k(x)vk(x)dx)=k(0)vk(0)1ll0k(x)vk(x)dx
    =k(0)vk(0)1l(k(l)vk(l)k(0)vk(0))+l0k(x)lvk(x)dx
    =k(0)vk(0)+bk.

    Then we have

    λkakbk=k(0)vk(0). (2.11)

    Step 2. Now we integrate the Eq. (1.5) from 0 to x

    k(x)vk(x)k(0)vk(0)=λkx0vk(τ)dτ,

    and according to k(x)>0, x[0,l], we can write

    vk(x)1k(x)k(0)vk(0)=λkk(x)x0vk(τ)dτ. (2.12)

    Thus, we integrate the Eq. (2.12) from 0 to l. Then we have

    vk(l)vk(0)k(0)vk(0)l0dxk(x)=λkl01k(x)(x0vk(τ)dτ)dx. (2.13)

    From (1.6) and (2.13) we get

    k(0)vk(0)l0dxk(x)=λkl01k(x)(x0vk(τ)dτ)dx.

    Then

    k(0)vk(0)=λkl0G(τ)vk(τ)dτ, (2.14)

    where

    G(τ)=lτdxk(x)(l0dxk(x))1.

    According to G(τ)>0 and from (2.14) we have (see, [24])

    vk(0)l0vk(τ)dτ0. (2.15)

    Consequently, from (2.11) and (2.15) we get the following estimate

    βk=(λkbkak)γk=k(0)vk(0)l0vk(x)dx0.

    Step 3. It is clear that if k(x)C1([0,l]), we may write the estimate (see, [24,26])

    max0xl|vk(x)|Cλ1/2k.

    Therefore,

    |vk(0)|Cλ1/2k,|vk(l)|Cλ1/2k, (2.16)

    Then from Eq. (1.5), we can write

    k(l)vk(l)k(0)vk(0)=λkl0vk(x)dx=λkγk. (2.17)

    According to (2.16) and (2.17) we have the estimate

    |γk||1λk(k(l)vk(l)k(0)vk(0))|Cλ1/2k.

    Then

    βkk(0)|vk(0)γk|C.

    Proposition 2. A function B(t) is continuous on the half-line t0.

    Proof. Indeed, according to Proposition 1 and (2.9), we can write

    0<B(t)constk=11(1+λk)2.

    Denote by W(M) the set of function θW22(,+), θ(t)=0 for t0 which satisfies the condition

    θW22(R+)M.

    Theorem 1. There exists M>0 such that for any function θW(M) the solution μ(t) of the equation (2.10) exists, and satisfies condition

    |μ(t)|  1.

    We write integral equation (2.10)

    δμ(t)+t0B(ts)μ(s)ds=θ(t),t>0.

    By definition of the Laplace transform we have

    ˜μ(p)=0eptμ(t)dt.

    Applying the Laplace transform to the second kind Volterra integral equation (2.10) and taking into account the properties of the transform convolution we get

    ˜θ(p)=δ˜μ(p)+˜B(p)˜μ(p).

    Consequently, we obtain

    ˜μ(p)=˜θ(p)δ+˜B(p),where  p=a+iξ,a>0,

    and

    μ(t)=12πia+iξaiξ˜θ(p)δ+˜B(p)eptdp=12π+˜θ(a+iξ)δ+˜B(a+iξ)e(a+iξ)tdξ. (3.1)

    Then we can write

    ˜B(p)=0B(t)eptdt=k=1βk(1+λk)20e(p+μk)tdt=k=1ρkp+μk,

    where ρk=βk(1+λk)20 and

    ˜B(a+iξ)=k=1ρka+μk+iξ=k=1ρk(a+μk)(a+μk)2+ξ2iξk=1ρk(a+μk)2+ξ2.

    It is clear that

    (a+μk)2+ξ2[(a+μk)2+1](1+ξ2),

    and we have the inequality

    1(a+μk)2+ξ211+ξ21(a+μk)2+1. (3.2)

    Consequently, according to (3.2) we can obtain the estimates

    |Re(δ+˜B(a+iξ))|=δ+k=1ρk(a+μk)(a+μk)2+ξ211+ξ2k=1ρk(a+μk)(a+μk)2+1=C1a1+ξ2, (3.3)

    and

    |Im(δ+˜B(a+iξ))|=|ξ|k=1ρk(a+μk)2+ξ2|ξ|1+ξ2k=1ρk(a+μk)2+1=C2a|ξ|1+ξ2, (3.4)

    where C1a, C2a as follows

    C1a=k=1ρk(a+μk)(a+μk)2+1,  C2a=k=1ρk(a+μk)2+1.

    From (3.3) and (3.4), we have the estimate

    |δ+˜B(a+iξ)|2=|Re(δ+˜B(a+iξ))|2+|Im(δ+˜B(a+iξ))|2min(C21a,C22a)1+ξ2,

    and

    |δ+˜B(a+iξ)|Ca1+ξ2,whereCa=min(C1a,C2a). (3.5)

    Then, by passing to the limit at a0 from (3.1), we can obtain the equality

    μ(t)=12π+˜θ(iξ)δ+˜B(iξ)eiξtdξ. (3.6)

    Lemma 1. Let θ(t)W(M). Then for the image of the function θ(t) the following inequality

    +|˜θ(iξ)|1+ξ2dξCθW22(R+),

    is valid.

    Proof. We use integration by parts in the integral representing the image of the given function θ(t)

    ˜θ(a+iξ)=0e(a+iξ)tθ(t)dt=θ(t)e(a+iξ)ta+iξ|t=t=0+1a+iξ0e(a+iξ)tθ(t)dt.

    Then using the obtained inequality and multiplying by the corresponding coefficient we get

    (a+iξ)˜θ(a+iξ)=0e(a+iξ)tθ(t)dt,

    and for a0 we have

    iξ˜θ(iξ)=0eiξtθ(t)dt.

    Also, we can write the following equality

    (iξ)2˜θ(iξ)=0eiξtθ(t)dt.

    Then we have

    +|˜θ(iξ)|2(1+ξ2)2dξC1θ2W22(R+). (3.7)

    Consequently, according to (3.7) we get the following estimate

    +|˜θ(iξ)|1+ξ2dξ=+|˜θ(iξ)|(1+ξ2)1+ξ2
    (+|˜θ(iξ)|2(1+ξ2)2dξ)1/2(+11+ξ2dξ)1/2CθW22(R+).

    Proof of the Theorem 1. We prove that μW12(R+). Indeed, according to (3.5) and (3.6), we obtain

    +|˜μ(ξ)|2(1+|ξ|2)dξ = +|˜θ(iξ)δ+˜B(iξ)|2(1+|ξ|2)dξ 
    C+|˜θ(iξ)|2(1+|ξ|2)2dξ = Cθ2W22(R).

    Further,

    |μ(t)μ(s)| = |tsμ(τ)dτ|  μL2ts.

    Hence, μLipα, where α=1/2. Then from (3.5), (3.6) and (3.7), we have

    |μ(t)|12π+|˜θ(iξ)||δ+˜B(iξ)|dξ12πC0+|˜θ(iξ)|1+ξ2dξ
    C2πC0θW22(R+)CM2πC0=1,

    as M we took

    M=2πC0C.

    An auxiliary boundary value problem for the pseudo-parabolic equation was considered. The restriction for the admissible control is given in the integral form. By the separation variables method, the desired problem was reduced to Volterra's integral equation. The last equation was solved by the Laplace transform method. Theorem on the existence of an admissible control is proved. Later, it is also interesting to consider this problem in the n dimensional domain. We assume that the methods used in the present problem can also be used in the n dimensional domain.

    The authors declare they have not used Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools in the creation of this article.

    The author declare there is no conflict of interest.



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