Quantifying the presymptomatic transmission of COVID-19 in the USA

Luyu Zhang; Zhaohua Zhang; Sen Pei; Qing Gao; Wei Chen; Luyu Zhang; Zhaohua Zhang; Sen Pei; Qing Gao; Wei Chen

doi:10.3934/mbe.2024036

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

2024, Volume 21, Issue 1: 861-883. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2024036

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Quantifying the presymptomatic transmission of COVID-19 in the USA

1.
LMIB and School of Mathematical Sciences, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China
2.
Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032, USA
3.
School of Automation Science and Electrical Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China
4.
Zhongguancun Laboratory, Beijing 100194, China
5.
Institute of Artificial Intelligence, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China
6.
Beijing Advanced Innovation Center for Big Data and Brain Computing, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China

Academic Editor: Hao Wang

Received: 17 September 2023 Revised: 15 November 2023 Accepted: 06 December 2023 Published: 21 December 2023

The emergence of many presymptomatic hidden transmission events significantly complicated the intervention and control of the spread of COVID-19 in the USA during the year 2020. To analyze the role that presymptomatic infections play in the spread of this disease, we developed a state-level metapopulation model to simulate COVID-19 transmission in the USA in 2020 during which period the number of confirmed cases was more than in any other country. We estimated that the transmission rate (i.e., the number of new infections per unit time generated by an infected individual) of presymptomatic infections was approximately 59.9% the transmission rate of reported infections. We further estimated that {at any point in time the} average proportion of infected individuals in the presymptomatic stage was consistently over 50% of all infected individuals. Presymptomatic transmission was consistently contributing over 52% to daily new infections, as well as consistently contributing over 50% to the effective reproduction number from February to December. Finally, non-pharmaceutical intervention targeting presymptomatic infections was very effective in reducing the number of reported cases. These results reveal the significant contribution that presymptomatic transmission made to COVID-19 transmission in the USA during 2020, as well as pave the way for the design of effective disease control and mitigation strategies.
- epidemiology,
- nonlinear dynamics,
- presymptomatic transmission,
- covid-19,
- metapopulation model
Citation: Luyu Zhang, Zhaohua Zhang, Sen Pei, Qing Gao, Wei Chen. Quantifying the presymptomatic transmission of COVID-19 in the USA[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2024, 21(1): 861-883. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2024036

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Abstract

The emergence of many presymptomatic hidden transmission events significantly complicated the intervention and control of the spread of COVID-19 in the USA during the year 2020. To analyze the role that presymptomatic infections play in the spread of this disease, we developed a state-level metapopulation model to simulate COVID-19 transmission in the USA in 2020 during which period the number of confirmed cases was more than in any other country. We estimated that the transmission rate (i.e., the number of new infections per unit time generated by an infected individual) of presymptomatic infections was approximately 59.9% the transmission rate of reported infections. We further estimated that {at any point in time the} average proportion of infected individuals in the presymptomatic stage was consistently over 50% of all infected individuals. Presymptomatic transmission was consistently contributing over 52% to daily new infections, as well as consistently contributing over 50% to the effective reproduction number from February to December. Finally, non-pharmaceutical intervention targeting presymptomatic infections was very effective in reducing the number of reported cases. These results reveal the significant contribution that presymptomatic transmission made to COVID-19 transmission in the USA during 2020, as well as pave the way for the design of effective disease control and mitigation strategies.

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