Research article Special Issues

Modeling variants of the COVID-19 virus in Hawai‘i and the responses to forecasting

  • In this paper we introduce a model for the spread of COVID-19 which takes into account competing SARS-CoV-2 mutations as well as the possibility of reinfection due to fading of vaccine protection. Our primary focus is to describe the impact of the B.1.617.2 (Delta) and B.1.1.529 (Omicron) variants on the state of Hawai‘i and to illustrate how the model performed during the pandemic, both in terms of accuracy, and as a resource for the government and media. Studying the effect of the pandemic on the Hawaiian archipelago is of notable interest because, as an isolated environment, its unique geography affords partially controlled travel to and from the state. We highlight the modeling efforts of the Hawai‘i Pandemic Applied Modeling Work Group (HiPAM) which used the model presented here, and we detail the model fitting and forecasting for the periods from July 2021 to October 2021 (Delta surge) and from November 2021 to April 2022 (Omicron surge). Our results illustrate that the model was both accurate when the forecasts were built on assumptions that held true, and was inaccurate when the public response to the forecasts was to enforce safety measures that invalidated the assumptions in the model.

    Citation: Richard Carney, Monique Chyba, Victoria Y. Fan, Prateek Kunwar, Thomas Lee, Ionica Macadangdang, Yuriy Mileyko. Modeling variants of the COVID-19 virus in Hawai‘i and the responses to forecasting[J]. AIMS Mathematics, 2023, 8(2): 4487-4523. doi: 10.3934/math.2023223

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  • In this paper we introduce a model for the spread of COVID-19 which takes into account competing SARS-CoV-2 mutations as well as the possibility of reinfection due to fading of vaccine protection. Our primary focus is to describe the impact of the B.1.617.2 (Delta) and B.1.1.529 (Omicron) variants on the state of Hawai‘i and to illustrate how the model performed during the pandemic, both in terms of accuracy, and as a resource for the government and media. Studying the effect of the pandemic on the Hawaiian archipelago is of notable interest because, as an isolated environment, its unique geography affords partially controlled travel to and from the state. We highlight the modeling efforts of the Hawai‘i Pandemic Applied Modeling Work Group (HiPAM) which used the model presented here, and we detail the model fitting and forecasting for the periods from July 2021 to October 2021 (Delta surge) and from November 2021 to April 2022 (Omicron surge). Our results illustrate that the model was both accurate when the forecasts were built on assumptions that held true, and was inaccurate when the public response to the forecasts was to enforce safety measures that invalidated the assumptions in the model.



    Dual numbers were first given by Clifford (1845–1879), and some properties of those were studied in the geometrical investigation, and Kotelnikov [1] introduced their first applications. Study applied to line geometry and kinematics dual numbers and dual vectors [2]. He demonstrated that the directed lines of Euclidean 3-space and the points of the dual unit sphere in D3 have a one-to-one relationship. Field theory also relies heavily on these numbers [3]. The most intriguing applications of dual numbers in field theory are found in a number of Wald publications [4]. Dual numbers have contemporary applications in kinematics, dynamics, computer modeling of rigid bodies, mechanism design, and kinematics [5,6,7].

    Complex numbers have significant advantages in derivative computations. However, the second derivative computations lost these advantages [8]. J. A. Fike developed the hyper-dual numbers to solve this issue [9]. These numbers may be used to calculate both the first and second derivatives while maintaining the benefits of the first derivative using complex numbers. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that this numerical approach is appropriate for open kinematic chain robot manipulators, sophisticated software, and airspace system analysis and design [10].

    In the literature, sequences of integers have an important place. The most famous of these sequences have been demonstrated in several areas of mathematics. These sequences have been researched extensively because of their complex characteristics and deep connections to several fields of mathematics. The Fibonacci and Lucas sequences and their related numbers are of essential importance due to their various applications in biology, physics, statistics, and computer science [11,12,13]. Many authors were interested in introducing and investigating several generalizations and modifications of Fibonacci and Lucas sequences. The authors investigated two classes that generalize Fibonacci and Lucas sequences, and they utilized them to compute some radicals in reduced forms. Panwar [14] defined the generalized k-Fibonacci sequence as

    Fk,n=pkFk,n1+qFk,n2,

    with initial conditions Fk,0=a and Fk,1=b. If a=0,k=2,p=q=b=1, the classic Pell sequence and for a=b=2,k=2,p=q=1, Pell-Lucas sequences appear.

    The Pell numbers are the numbers of the following integer sequence:

    0,1,2,5,12,29,70,169,408,985,2378,...

    The sequence of Pell numbers, which is denoted by Pn is defined as the linear reccurence relation

    Pn=2Pn1+Pn2,P0=0,P1=1,  n2.

    The integer sequence of Pell-Lucas numbers denoted by Qn is given by

    2,2,6,14,34,82,198,478,1154,2786,6726,...,

    with the same reccurence relation

    Qn=2Qn1+Qn2,Q0=Q1=2,  n2.

    The characteristic equation of these numbers is x22x1=0, with roots α=1+2 and β=12 and the Binet's forms of these sequences are given as[15,16,17,18],

    Pn=αnβnαβ (1.1)

    and

    Qn=αn+βn. (1.2)

    The set of dual numbers is defined as

    D={d=a+εaa,aR,ε2=0,ε0}.

    The set of hyper-dual numbers is

    ˜D={γ=γ0+γ1ε+γ2ε+γ3εεγ0,γ1,γ2,γ3R},

    or can be rewritten as

    ˜D={γ=d+εdd,dD},

    where ε, ε and εε are hyper-dual units that satisfy

    (ε)2=(ε)2=0,εε0,εε=εε.

    This set forms commutative and associative algebra over both the dual and real numbers [8,9,10].

    The square root of a hyper-dual number γ can be defined by

    γ=γ0+γ12γ0ε+γ22γ0ε+(γ32γ0γ1γ24γ0γ0)εε. (1.3)

    A hyper-dual vector is any vector of the form

    γ=γ0+γ1ε+γ2ε+γ3εε,

    where γ0,γ1,γ2,γ3 are real vectors, this vector can be rewritten as γ=d+εd, where d and d are dual vectors. Let γ and δ be hyper-dual vectors, then their scalar product is defined as

    γ,δHD=γ0,δ0+(γ0,δ1+γ1,δ0)ε+(γ0,δ2+γ2,δ0)ε+(γ0,δ3+γ1,δ2+γ2,δ1+γ3,δ0)εε, (1.4)

    which continents inner products of real vectors.

    Let f(x0+x1ε+x2ε+x3εε) be a hyper-dual function, then

    f(x0+x1ε+x2ε+x3εε)=f(x0)+x1f(x0)ε+x2f(x0)ε+(x3f(x0)+x1x2f(x0))εε. (1.5)

    Suppose γ, δ and Φ be unit hyper-dual vectors and hyper-dual angle respectively then by using (1.5) the scalar product can be written as

    γ,δHD=cosΦ=cosϕεϕsinϕ=(cosψεψsinψ)εϕ(sinψ+εψcosψ), (1.6)

    where ϕ and ψ are, respectively, dual and real angles.

    The norm of a hyper-dual vector γ is given by

    γHD=γ0+γ0,γ1γ0ε+γ0,γ2γ0ε+(γ0,γ3γ0+γ1,γ2γ0γ0,γ1γ0,γ2γ03)εε,

    for γ00. If γHD=1 that is γ0=1 and γ0,γ1=γ0,γ2=γ0,γ3=γ1,γ2=0, then γ is a unit hyper-dual vector.

    In this paper, we introduce the hyper-dual Pell and the hyper-dual Pell-Lucas numbers, which provide a natural generalization of the classical Pell and Pell-Lucas numbers by using the concept of hyper-dual numbers. We investigate some basic properties of these numbers. We also define a new vector and angle, which are called hyper-dual Pell vector and angle. We give properties of these vectors and angles to exert in the geometry of hyper-dual space.

    In this section, we define the hyper-dual Pell and hyper-dual Pell-Lucas numbers and then demonstrate their fundamental identities and properties.

    Definition 2.1. The nth hyper-dual Pell HPn and hyper-dual Pell-Lucas HQn numbers are defined respectively as

    HPn=Pn+Pn+1ε+Pn+2ε+Pn+3εε (2.1)

    and

    HQn=Qn+εQn+1+εQn+2+εεQn+3, (2.2)

    where Pn and Qn are nth Pell and Pell-Lucas numbers.

    The few hyper-dual Pell and hyper-dual Pell-Lucas numbers are given as

    HP1=1+2ε+5ε+12εε,HP2=2+5ε+12ε+29εε,...

    and

    HQ1=2+6ε+14ε+34εε,HQ2=6+14ε+34ε+82εε,...

    Theorem 2.1. The Binet-like formulas of the hyper-dual Pell and hyper-dual Pell-Lucas numbers are given, respectively, by

    HPn=φnφ_ψnψ_φψ (2.3)

    and

    HQn=φnφ_+ψnψ_, (2.4)

    where

    φ_=1+φε+φ2ε+φ3εε,ψ_=1+ψε+ψ2ε+ψ3εε. (2.5)

    Proof. From (2.1) and the Binet formula of Pell numbers, we obtain

    HPn=Pn+Pn+1ε+Pn+2ε+Pn+3εε=φnψnφψ+φn+1ψn+1φψε+φn+2ψn+2φψε+φn+3ψn+3φψεε=φn(1+φε+φ2ε+φ3εε)φψψn(1+ψε+ψ2ε+ψ3εε)φψ=φnφ_ψnψ_φψ.

    On the other hand, using (2.2) and the Binet formula of Pell-Lucas numbers we obtain

    HQn=Qn+Qn+1ε+Qn+2ε+Qn+3εε=(φn+ψn)+(φn+1+ψn+1)ε+(φn+2+ψn+2)ε+(φn+3+ψn+3)εε=φn(1+φε+φ2ε+φ3εε)+ψn(1+ψε+ψ2ε+ψ3εε)=φnφ_+ψnψ_.

    The proof is completed.

    Theorem 2.2. (Vajda-like identities) For non-negative integers m, n, and r, we have

    HPmHPnHPmrHPn+r=(1)n+1PmnrPr(1+2ε+6ε+12εε),HQmHQnHQmrHQn+r=(1)nQmn(1)n+rQmn2r(1+2ε+6ε+12εε).

    Proof. By using the Binet-like formula of hyper-dual Pell numbers, we obtain

    HPmHPnHPmrHPn+r=(φmφ_ψmψ_φψ)(φnφ_ψnψ_φψ)(φmrφ_ψmrψ_φψ)(φn+rφ_ψn+rψ_φψ)=(φrψr)(φnψmrψnφmr)(φψ)2φ_ψ_=(φmnrψmnr)(φrψr)(φψ)2φ_ψ_,

    and by using (1.1), we obtain

    HPmHPnHPmrHPn+r=(1)n+1PmnrPr(1+2ε+6ε+12εε).

    Similarly for hyper-dual Pell-Lucas numbers, we can obtain

    HQmHQnHQmrHQn+r=(φmφ_+ψmψ_)(φnφ_+ψnψ_)(φmrφ_+ψmrψ_)(φn+rφ_+ψn+rψ_)=φ_ψ_(φmn+ψmnφmn2rψmn2r).

    Using (1.2) and (2.5),

    HQmHQnHQmrHQn+r=(1)nQmn(1)n+rQmn2r(1+2ε+6ε+12εε).

    Thus, we obtain the desired results.

    Theorem 2.3. (Catalan-like identities) For non negative integers n and r, with nr, we have

    HPnrHPn+rHP2n=(1)nrP2r(1+2ε+6ε+12εε),HQnrHQn+rHQ2n=8(1)nrP2r(1+2ε+6ε+12εε).

    Proof. From (2.3), we obtain

    HPnrHPn+rHP2n=(φnrφ_ψnrψ_φψ)(φn+rφ_ψn+rψ_φψ)(φnφ_ψnψ_φψ)2=φnψn8φ_ψ_(2ψrφrψrφr)=(1)nrφ_ψ_(φrψrφψ)2,

    and by using (1.1) and (2.5), we will have

    HPnrHPn+rHP2n=(1)nrP2r(1+2ε+6ε+12εε).

    On the other hand, from (2.4) and (2.5) we obtain

    HQnrHQn+rHQ2n=(φnrφ_+ψnrψ_)(φn+rφ_+ψn+rψ_)(φnφ_+ψnψ_)2=φ_ψ_(φnrψn+r+φn+rψnr2ψnφn)=8(1)nrφ_ψ_(φrψrφψ)2=8(1)nrP2r(1+2ε+6ε+12εε).

    Corollary 2.1. (Cassini-like identities) For non-negative integer n, we have

    HPn1HPn+1HP2n=(1)n1(1+2ε+6ε+12εε),HQn1HQn+1HQ2n=8(1)n1(1+2ε+6ε+12εε).

    Proof. We can get the result by taking r=1 in Theorem 2.3.

    Theorem 2.4. (d'Ocagne-like identities) For non-negative integers n and m,

    HPm+1HPnHPmHPn+1=(1)mPnm(1+2ε+6ε+12εε),HQm+1HQnHQmHQn+1=8(1)nPmn(1+2ε+6ε+12εε).

    Proof. Using (1.1), (2.3), and (2.5), we have

    HPm+1HPnHPmHPn+1=(φm+1φ_ψm+1ψ_φψ)(φnφ_ψnψ_φψ)(φmφ_ψmψ_φψ)(φn+1φ_ψn+1ψ_φψ)=(φψ)(φnψmφmψn)φ_ψ_=(1)mPnm(1+2ε+6ε+12εε).

    Using (1.2), (2.4) and (2.5), we have

    HQm+1HQnHQmHQn+1=8(1)nPmn(1+2ε+6ε+12εε).

    In this section, we introduce hyper-dual Pell vectors and hyper-dual Pell angle. We will give geometric properties of them.

    Definition 3.1. The nth hyper-dual Pell vector is defined as

    HPn=Pn+Pn+1ε+Pn+2ε+Pn+3εε,

    where Pn=(Pn,Pn+1,Pn+2) is a real Pell vector. The hyper-dual Pell vector HPn can be rewritten in terms of dual Pell vectors Pn and Pn as

    HPn=(Pn+Pn+1ε)+(Pn+2+Pn+3ε)ε=Pn+εPn.

    Theorem 3.1. The scalar product of hyper-dual Pell vectors HPn and HPm is

    HPn,HPm=7Qn+m+28(1)mQnm8+(7Qn+m+34(1)mQnm4)ε+(7Qn+m+443(1)mQnm4)ε+(7Qn+m+523(1)mQnm2)εε. (3.1)

    Proof. By using (1.4), we can write

    HPn,HPm=Pn,Pm+(Pn,Pm+1+Pn+1,Pm)ε+(Pn,Pm+2+Pn+2,Pm)ε+(Pn,Pm+3+Pn+1,Pm+2+Pn+2,Pm+1+Pn+3,Pm)εε. (3.2)

    Now we calculate the above inner products for real Pell vectors Pn and Pm by using Binet's formula of Pell numbers as

    Pn,Pm=PnPm+Pn+1Pm+1+Pn+2Pm+2=(φnψnφψ)(φmψmφψ)+(φn+1ψn+1φψ)(φm+1ψm+1φψ)+(φn+2ψn+2φψ)(φm+2ψm+2φψ)=φn+m+ψn+m(φψ)2+φn+m+2+ψn+m+2(φψ)2+φn+m+4+ψn+m+4(φψ)2(φnψm+φmψn)φmψm(φψ)2φmψm=18(Qn+m+Qn+m+2+Qn+m+4+(1)mQnm)=7Qn+m+28(1)mQnm8.

    Similarly,

    Pn,Pm+1=7Qn+m+38+(1)mQnm18,Pn+1,Pm=7Qn+m+38(1)mQnm+18,Pn,Pm+2=7Qn+m+48(1)mQnm28,Pn+2,Pm=7Qn+m+48(1)mQnm+28,Pn,Pm+3=7Qn+m+58+(1)mQnm38,Pn+1,Pm+2=7Qn+m+58(1)mQnm18,Pn+2,Pm+1=7Qn+m+58+(1)mQnm+18,Pn+3,Pm=7Qn+m+58(1)mQnm+38.

    By substituting these equalities in (3.2), we obtain the result.

    Example 3.1. Let HP1=(1,2,5)+(2,5,12)ε+(5,12,29)ε+(12,29,70)εε and HP0=(0,1,2)+(1,2,5)ε+(2,5,12)ε+(5,12,29)εε be the hyper-dual Pell vectors. The scalar product of HP1 and HP0 are

    HP1,HP0=7Q3Q18+7Q4Q14ε+7Q53Q14ε+7Q63Q12εε=12+59ε+142ε+690εε.

    By the other hand

    HP1,HP0=P1,P0+(P1,P1+P2,P0)ε+(P1,P2+P3,P0)ε+(P1,P3+P2,P2+P3,P1+P4,P0)εε=12+(30+29)ε+(72+70)ε+(174+173+174+169)εε=12+59ε+142ε+690εε.

    The results are the same as we expected.

    Corollary 3.1. The norm of HPn is

    HPn2=HPn,HPn=7Q2n+28(1)n4+(7Q2n+34(1)n2)ε+(7Q2n+443(1)n2)ε+(7Q2n+523(1)n)εε. (3.3)

    Proof. The proof is clear from taking m=n in (3.1).

    Example 3.2. Find the norm of HP1=(1,2,5)+(2,5,12)ε+(5,12,29)ε+(12,29,70)εε.

    If we take n=1 in (3.3) and use (1.3), then we will get

    HP1=7Q48+14+(7Q54+12)ε+(7Q64+32)ε+(7Q72+3)εε=30+144ε+348ε+1676εε=30+7230ε+17430ε+734530εε.

    From (1.6) and (3.1), the following cases can be given for the scalar product of hyper-dual Pell vectors HPn and HPm.

    Case 3.1. Assume that cosϕ=0 and ϕ0, then ψ=π2, ψ=0, therefore

    HPn,HPm=εϕ=(7Qm+n+443(1)mQnm4)ε+(7Qm+n+523(1)mQnm2)εε,

    then, we get

    ϕ=(1)m(32+ε)74(Qm+n+4+2εQm+n+5)

    and corresponding dual lines d1 and d2 are perpendicular such that they do not intersect each other; see Figure 1.

    Figure 1.  Geometric representation of hyper-dual angle between the directed dual lines d1 and d2.

    Case 3.2. Assume that ϕ=0 and ϕ0, then we obtain

    HPn,HPm=cosϕ=(7Qm+n+28(1)mQnm8)+(7Qm+n+34(1)mQnm4)ε,

    therefore

    ϕ=arccos((7Qm+n+28(1)mQnm8)+(7Qm+n+34(1)mQnm4)ε),

    and corresponding dual lines d1 and d2 intersect each other; see Figure 2.

    Figure 2.  Intersection of dual lines d1 and d2.

    Case 3.3. Assume that cosϕ=0 and ϕ=0, then ψ=π2 and ψ=0, therefore

    HPn,HPm=0,

    and dual lines d1 and d2 intersect each other at a right angle; see Figure 3.

    Figure 3.  Perpendicular intersection of dual lines d1 and d2.

    Case 3.4. Assume that ϕ=0 and ϕ=0, then

    HPn,HPm=1,

    in this case corresponding dual lines d1 and d2 are parallel; see Figure 4.

    Figure 4.  Parallel of dual lines d1 and d2.

    In the present study, we introduce two families of hyper-dual numbers with components containing Pell and the Pell-Lucas numbers. First, we define hyper-dual Pell and Pell-Lucas numbers. Afterwards, by means of the Binet's formulas of Pell and Pell-Lucas numbers, we investigate identities such as the Binet-like formulas, Vajda-like, Catalan-like, Cassini-like, and d'Ocagne-like identities. After that, we define hyper-dual Pell vector and angle with some properties and geometric applications related to them. In the future it would be valuable to replicate a similar exploration and development of our findings on hyper-dual numbers with Pell and Pell-Lucas numbers. These results can trigger further research on the subjects of the hyper-dual numbers, vector, and angle to carry out in the geometry of dual and hyper-dual space.

    Faik Babadağ and Ali Atasoy: Conceptualization, writing-original draft, writing-review, editing. All authors have read and approved the final version of the manuscript for publication.

    The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.



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