Dynamics of Mpox in an HIV endemic community: A mathematical modelling approach

Andrew Omame; Sarafa A. Iyaniwura; Qing Han; Adeniyi Ebenezer; Nicola L. Bragazzi; Xiaoying Wang; Woldegebriel A. Woldegerima; Jude D. Kong; Andrew Omame; Sarafa A. Iyaniwura; Qing Han; Adeniyi Ebenezer; Nicola L. Bragazzi; Xiaoying Wang; Woldegebriel A. Woldegerima; Jude D. Kong

doi:10.3934/mbe.2025010

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

2025, Volume 22, Issue 2: 225-259. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2025010

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Research article

Dynamics of Mpox in an HIV endemic community: A mathematical modelling approach

1.
Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
2.
Theoretical Biology and Biophysics, Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA
3.
Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC)
4.
Department of Clinical Pharmacy, Saarland University, Saarbrücken 66123, Germany
5.
Department of Food and Drugs, University of Parma, Parma 43125, Italy
6.
Department of Mathematics & Statistics, Trent University Peterborough, Ontario, Canada
7.
Artificial Intelligence & Mathematical Modeling Lab (AIMM Lab), Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, 155 College St Room 500, Toronto, ON M5T 3M7
8.
Department of Mathematics, University of Toronto, Ontario, Canada
9.
Global South Artificial Intelligence for Pandemic and Epidemic Preparedness and Response Network (AI4PEP)
10.
Department of Mathematics, Federal University of Technology, Owerri, Nigeria

Academic Editor: Vladimir Mityushev
† Authors contributed equally and share first authorship

Received: 01 September 2024 Revised: 09 November 2024 Accepted: 25 November 2024 Published: 21 January 2025

During the 2022 monkeypox (Mpox) outbreak in non-endemic countries, sexual transmission was identified as the dominant mode of transmission, and particularly affected the community of men who have sex with men (MSM). This community experienced the highest incidence of Mpox cases, exacerbating the public health burden they already face due to the disproportionate impact of HIV. Given the simultaneous spread of HIV and Mpox within the MSM community, it is crucial to understand how these diseases interact. Specifically, since HIV is endemic within this population, understanding its influence on the spread and control of Mpox is essential. In this study, we analyze a mechanistic mathematical model of Mpox to explore the potential impact of HIV on the dynamics of Mpox within the MSM community. The model considered in this work incorporates the transmission dynamics of the two diseases, including antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV. We assumed that HIV was already endemic in the population at the onset of the Mpox outbreak. Through our analysis, we derived the Mpox invasion reproduction number within an HIV-endemic setting and established the existence and local asymptotic stability of the Mpox-free equilibrium under these conditions. Furthermore, we demonstrated the existence and local asymptotic stability of an Mpox-endemic equilibrium in an HIV-endemic regime. Notably, our findings revealed that the model exhibits a backward bifurcation, a phenomenon that may not have occurred in the absence of HIV within the population. The public health significance of our results is that the presence of HIV in the MSM community could hinder efforts to control Mpox, allowing the disease to become endemic even when its invasion reproduction number is below one. Additionally, we found that Mpox might be more challenging to control in scenarios where HIV increases susceptibility to Mpox. Finally, consistent with previous studies, our analysis confirms that reducing sexual contact can be effective for controlling the spread of Mpox within the MSM community.
- HIV-Mpox co-dynamics,
- linear stability analysis,
- invasion reproduction number,
- bifurcation analysis,
- backward bifurcation,
- forward bifurcation
Citation: Andrew Omame, Sarafa A. Iyaniwura, Qing Han, Adeniyi Ebenezer, Nicola L. Bragazzi, Xiaoying Wang, Woldegebriel A. Woldegerima, Jude D. Kong. Dynamics of Mpox in an HIV endemic community: A mathematical modelling approach[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2025, 22(2): 225-259. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2025010

Related Papers:

Abstract

During the 2022 monkeypox (Mpox) outbreak in non-endemic countries, sexual transmission was identified as the dominant mode of transmission, and particularly affected the community of men who have sex with men (MSM). This community experienced the highest incidence of Mpox cases, exacerbating the public health burden they already face due to the disproportionate impact of HIV. Given the simultaneous spread of HIV and Mpox within the MSM community, it is crucial to understand how these diseases interact. Specifically, since HIV is endemic within this population, understanding its influence on the spread and control of Mpox is essential. In this study, we analyze a mechanistic mathematical model of Mpox to explore the potential impact of HIV on the dynamics of Mpox within the MSM community. The model considered in this work incorporates the transmission dynamics of the two diseases, including antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV. We assumed that HIV was already endemic in the population at the onset of the Mpox outbreak. Through our analysis, we derived the Mpox invasion reproduction number within an HIV-endemic setting and established the existence and local asymptotic stability of the Mpox-free equilibrium under these conditions. Furthermore, we demonstrated the existence and local asymptotic stability of an Mpox-endemic equilibrium in an HIV-endemic regime. Notably, our findings revealed that the model exhibits a backward bifurcation, a phenomenon that may not have occurred in the absence of HIV within the population. The public health significance of our results is that the presence of HIV in the MSM community could hinder efforts to control Mpox, allowing the disease to become endemic even when its invasion reproduction number is below one. Additionally, we found that Mpox might be more challenging to control in scenarios where HIV increases susceptibility to Mpox. Finally, consistent with previous studies, our analysis confirms that reducing sexual contact can be effective for controlling the spread of Mpox within the MSM community.

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