A simple model to estimate the transmissibility of the Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants of SARS-COV-2 in South Africa

Yangyang Yu; Yuan Liu; Shi Zhao; Daihai He; Yangyang Yu; Yuan Liu; Shi Zhao; Daihai He

doi:10.3934/mbe.2022485

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

2022, Volume 19, Issue 10: 10361-10373. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2022485

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Research article

A simple model to estimate the transmissibility of the Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants of SARS-COV-2 in South Africa

1.
Department of Applied Mathematics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China
2.
State Key Laboratory for Strength and Vibration of Mechanical Structures, School of Aerospace Engineering, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, China
3.
JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
4.
CUHK Shenzhen Research Institute, Shenzhen, China
^# The authors contributed equally.

Received: 07 June 2022 Revised: 06 July 2022 Accepted: 14 July 2022 Published: 22 July 2022

The COVID-19 pandemic caused multiple waves of mortality in South Africa, where three genetic variants of SARS-COV-2 and their ancestral strain dominated consecutively. State-of-the-art mathematical modeling approach was used to estimate the time-varying transmissibility of SARS-COV-2 and the relative transmissibility of Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants. The transmissibility of the three variants were about 73%, 87%, and 276% higher than their preceding variants. To the best of our knowledge, our model is the first simple model that can simulate multiple mortality waves and three variants' replacements in South Africa. The transmissibility of the Omicron variant is substantially higher than that of previous variants.
- COVID-19,
- SARS-COV-2,
- Beta variant,
- Delta variant,
- Omicron variant,
- mathematical modelling,
- South Africa
Citation: Yangyang Yu, Yuan Liu, Shi Zhao, Daihai He. A simple model to estimate the transmissibility of the Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants of SARS-COV-2 in South Africa[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2022, 19(10): 10361-10373. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2022485

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Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic caused multiple waves of mortality in South Africa, where three genetic variants of SARS-COV-2 and their ancestral strain dominated consecutively. State-of-the-art mathematical modeling approach was used to estimate the time-varying transmissibility of SARS-COV-2 and the relative transmissibility of Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants. The transmissibility of the three variants were about 73%, 87%, and 276% higher than their preceding variants. To the best of our knowledge, our model is the first simple model that can simulate multiple mortality waves and three variants' replacements in South Africa. The transmissibility of the Omicron variant is substantially higher than that of previous variants.

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