Research article Special Issues

Modeling the effect of literacy and social media advertisements on the dynamics of infectious diseases

  • Received: 07 July 2020 Accepted: 18 August 2020 Published: 02 September 2020
  • Education empowers humans and gets them ready to face challenges of life efficiently. Literacy and social media campaigns make people aware of the tools and techniques requisite for protection against the emerging diseases. In this paper, we investigate the combined impacts of literacy and social media on the dynamics of infectious diseases spreading through direct contact. Normalized forward sensitivity indices explore the impacts of parameters on basic reproduction number. We perform global sensitivity analysis for the infective population with respect to some controllable epidemiologically important parameters. If the growth rate of broadcasting informations through social media is very high, the system shows limit cycle oscillations. On the other hand, the baseline number of social media advertisements stabilize the system by evacuating persistent oscillations and ultimately settling the system from stable endemic equilibrium to stable disease-free state. The dissemination of awareness among literate people also suppresses the prevalence of limit cycle oscillations and drives the system to disease-free zone. An extension in model is made by assuming the growth rate of social media advertisements as periodic function of time. The simulation results show that the nonautonomous system showcases periodic as well as higher periodic solutions on the increase in the growth rate of advertisements. Our results evoke that media and education play a tremendous role in mounting awareness among the population leading to elimination of disease in the society.

    Citation: Rajanish Kumar Rai, Pankaj Kumar Tiwari, Yun Kang, Arvind Kumar Misra. Modeling the effect of literacy and social media advertisements on the dynamics of infectious diseases[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2020, 17(5): 5812-5848. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2020311

    Related Papers:

  • Education empowers humans and gets them ready to face challenges of life efficiently. Literacy and social media campaigns make people aware of the tools and techniques requisite for protection against the emerging diseases. In this paper, we investigate the combined impacts of literacy and social media on the dynamics of infectious diseases spreading through direct contact. Normalized forward sensitivity indices explore the impacts of parameters on basic reproduction number. We perform global sensitivity analysis for the infective population with respect to some controllable epidemiologically important parameters. If the growth rate of broadcasting informations through social media is very high, the system shows limit cycle oscillations. On the other hand, the baseline number of social media advertisements stabilize the system by evacuating persistent oscillations and ultimately settling the system from stable endemic equilibrium to stable disease-free state. The dissemination of awareness among literate people also suppresses the prevalence of limit cycle oscillations and drives the system to disease-free zone. An extension in model is made by assuming the growth rate of social media advertisements as periodic function of time. The simulation results show that the nonautonomous system showcases periodic as well as higher periodic solutions on the increase in the growth rate of advertisements. Our results evoke that media and education play a tremendous role in mounting awareness among the population leading to elimination of disease in the society.


    加载中


    [1] WHO, World Health Organization, coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020. Available from: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019.
    [2] K. Harris, Tracking the global impact of the coronavirus outbreak, Bain Macro Trends group analysis, 2020. Available from: https://www.bain.com/insights/tracking-the-global-impact-of-thecoronavirus-outbreak-snap-chart/.
    [3] X. Chang, M. Liu, Z. Jin, J. Wang, Studying on the impact of media coverage on the spread of COVID-19 in Hubei Province, China, Math. Biosci. Eng., 17 (2020), 3147-3159.
    [4] A. K. Misra, R. K. Rai, Y. Takeuchi, Modeling the control of infectious diseases: Effects of TV and social media devertisements, Math. Biosci. Eng., 15 (2018), 1315-1343.
    [5] A. K. Misra, R. K. Rai, A mathematical model for the control of infectious diseases: Effects of TV and radio advertisements, Inter. J. Bifur. Chaos, 28 (2018), 1850037.
    [6] A. K. Misra, R. K. Rai, Impacts of TV and radio advertisements on the dynamics of an infectious disease: A modeling study, Math. Meth. Appl. Sci., 42 (2019), 1262-1282.
    [7] J. Cui, Y. Sun, H. Zhu, The impact of media on the control of infectious diseases, J. Dyn. Differ. Equ., 20 (2008), 31-53.
    [8] R. Liu, J. Wu, H. Zhu, Media/psychological impact on multiple outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases, Comput. Math. Methods Med., 8 (2007), 153-164.
    [9] B. Dubey, P. Dubey, U. S. Dubey, Role of media and treatment on an SIR model, Nonlinear Anal. Model. Control, 21 (2016), 185-200.
    [10] I. Ghosh, P. K. Tiwari, S. Samanta, I. M. Elmojtaba, N. Al-Salti, J. Chattopadhyay, A simple SItype model for HIV/AIDS with media and self-imposed psychological fear, Math. Biosci., 306 (2018), 160-169.
    [11] A. K. Misra, A. Sharma, J. B. Shukla, Stability analysis and optimal control of an epidemic model with awareness programs by media, BioSystems, 138 (2015), 53-62.
    [12] J. M. Tchuenche, C. T. Bauch, Dynamics of an infectious disease where media coverage influences transmission, ISRN Biomath., 581274 (2012), 1-11.
    [13] J. M. Tchuenche, N. Dube, C. P. Bhunu, R. J. Smith, C. T. Bauch, The impact of media coverage on the transmission dynamics of human influenza, BMC Public Health, 11 (2011), 1-16.
    [14] Government of India, Information about COVID-19, #IndiaFightsCorona COVID-19 in India, 2020. Available from: https://www.mygov.in/covid-19.
    [15] A. Dutt, Surat plague of 1994 re-examined, Review, 37 (2006), 755-760.
    [16] C. Sun, W. Yang, J. Arino, K. Khan, Effect of media-induced social distancing on disease transmission in a two patch setting, Math. Biosci., 230 (2011), 87-95.
    [17] J. Cui, X. Tao, H. Zhu, An SIS infection model incorporating media coverage, Rocky Mountain J. Math., 38 (2008), 13-23.
    [18] Y. Liu, J. A. Cui, The impact of media coverage on the dynamics of infectious diseases, Int. J. Biomath., 1 (2008), 65-74.
    [19] Y. Li, J. Cui, The effect of constant and pulse vaccination on SIS epidemic models incorporating media coverage, Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simulat., 14 (2009), 2353-2365.
    [20] F. Nyabadza, C. Chiyaka, Z. Mukandavire, S. D. H. Musekwa, Analysis of an HIV/AIDS model with public-health information campaigns and individual withdrawal, J. Biol. Syst., 18 (2010), 357-375.
    [21] S. Samanta, S. Rana, A. Sharma, A. K. Misra, J. Chattopadhyay, Effect of awareness programs by media on the epidemic outbreaks: A mathematical model, Appl. Math. Comput., 219 (2013), 6965-6977.
    [22] A. K. Misra, A. Sharma, J. B. Shukla, Modeling and analysis of effects of awareness programs by media on the spread of infectious diseases, Math. Comp. Model., 53 (2011), 1221-1228.
    [23] S. Samanta, J. Chattopadhyay, Effect of awareness program in disease outbreak − A slow-fast dynamics, Appl. Math. Comput., 237 (2014), 98-109.
    [24] S. Collinson, K. Khan, J. M. Heffernan, The effects of media reports on disease spread and important public health measurements, PLoS One, 10 (2015), e0141423.
    [25] H. F. Huo, P. Yang, H. Xiang, Stability and bifurcation for an SEIS epidemic model with the impact of media, Physica A, 490 (2018), 702-720.
    [26] A. K. Misra, R. K. Rai, Y. Takeuchi, Modeling the effect of time delay in budget allocation to control an epidemic through awareness, Int. J. Biomath., 11 (2018), 1850027.
    [27] R. K. Rai, A. K. Misra, Y. Takeuchi, Modeling the impact of sanitation and awareness on the spread of infectious diseases, Math. Biosci. Eng., 16 (2019), 667-700.
    [28] G. O. Agaba, Y. N. Kyrychko, K. B. Blyuss, Mathematical model for the impact of awareness on the dynamics of infectious diseases, Math. Biosci., 286 (2017), 22-30.
    [29] C. Yang, X. Wang, D. Gao, J. Wang, Impact of awareness programs on Cholera dynamics: Two modeling approaches, Bull. Math. Biol., 79 (2017), 2109-2131.
    [30] M. S. Rahman, M. L. Rahman, Media and education play a tremendous role in mounting AIDS awareness among married couples in Bangladesh, AIDS Res. Therapy, 4 (2007), 10-17.
    [31] WHO, Epidemic curves: Serve acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Available from: https://www.who.int/csr/sars/epicurve/epiindex/en/index1.html.
    [32] H. I. Freedman, J. W. H. So, Global stability and persistence of simple food chains, Math. Biosci., 76 (1985), 69-86.
    [33] J. K. Hale, Ordinary Differential Equations, Wiley-Inscience, New York, 1969.
    [34] V. Lakshmikantham, S. Leela, A. A. Martynyuk, Stability Analysis of Nonlinear Systems, Springer, Switzerland, 1989.
    [35] M. Zhien, L. Jia, Dynamical Modeling and Analysis of Epidemics, World Scientific, 2009.
    [36] P. van den Driessche, J. Watmough, Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission, Math. Biosci., 180 (2002), 29-48.
    [37] G. Gandolfo, Economic Dynamics, Springer, New York, 1996.
    [38] K. Gopalsamy, Stability and Oscillations in Delay Differential Equations of Population Dynamics, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, 1992.
    [39] I. Ghosh, P. K. Tiwari, J. Chattopadhyay, Effect of active case finding on dengue control: Implications from a mathematical model, J. Theor. Biol., 464 (2019), 50-62.
    [40] S. M. Blower, M. Dowlatabadi, Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of complex models of disease transmission: An HIV model, as an example, Int. Stat. Rev., 62 (1994), 229-243.
    [41] S. Marino, I. B. Hogue, C. J. Ray, D. E. Kirschner, A methodology for performing global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in systems biology, J. Theor. Biol., 254 (2008), 178-196.
    [42] South Sudan stops transmission of guinea worm disease, 2020. Available from: https://www.cartercenter.org/news/pr/guinea-worm-032118.html.
    [43] D. Molyneux, D. P. Sankara, Guinea worm eradication: Progress and challenges-should we beware of the dog?, PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis. 11 (2016), e0005495.
    [44] I. Ghosh, P. K. Tiwari, S. Mandal, M. Martcheva, J. Chattopadhyay, A mathematical study to control Guinea worm disease: A case study on Chad, J. Biol. Dyn., 12 (2018), 846-871.
  • Reader Comments
  • © 2020 the Author(s), licensee AIMS Press. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)
通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
  • 1. 

    沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

  1. 本站搜索
  2. 百度学术搜索
  3. 万方数据库搜索
  4. CNKI搜索

Metrics

Article views(4605) PDF downloads(139) Cited by(9)

Article outline

Figures and Tables

Figures(13)  /  Tables(3)

/

DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
Return
Return

Catalog