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An age-structured vector-borne disease model with horizontal transmission in the host

  • We concern with a vector-borne disease model with horizontal transmission and infection age in the host population. With the approach of Lyapunov functionals, we establish a threshold dynamics, which is completely determined by the basic reproduction number. Roughly speaking, if the basic reproduction number is less than one then the infection-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable while if the basic reproduction number is larger than one then the infected equilibrium attracts all solutions with initial infection. These theoretical results are illustrated with numerical simulations.

    Citation: Xia Wang, Yuming Chen. An age-structured vector-borne disease model with horizontal transmission in the host[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2018, 15(5): 1099-1116. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2018049

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  • We concern with a vector-borne disease model with horizontal transmission and infection age in the host population. With the approach of Lyapunov functionals, we establish a threshold dynamics, which is completely determined by the basic reproduction number. Roughly speaking, if the basic reproduction number is less than one then the infection-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable while if the basic reproduction number is larger than one then the infected equilibrium attracts all solutions with initial infection. These theoretical results are illustrated with numerical simulations.


    1. Introduction

    Vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue, schistomiasis, Chagas disease, and yellow fever are illnesses that are transmitted by vectors, which include mosquitos, ticks, and fleas. They account for over 17% of all infectious diseases and are great threat to the health of human and animal. Every year there are more than 1 billion cases and over 1 million deaths from vector-borne diseases.

    Mathematical modeling has been successfully used to better understand the mechanisms underlying vector-borne disease spread and to provide efficient control strategies. The Ross-Macdonald model on vector-borne diseases was described by ordinary differential equations [14, 19, 20]. Macdonald [14] established a threshold condition on the invasion and persistence of infection, which is determined by the basic reproduction number (defined as the average number of secondary cases produced by an index case during its infectious period). Most of the existing vector-borne disease models, especially those on malaria that investigate complications arising from host superinfection, immunity, and other factors, are based on this fundamental model [3, 5, 8, 12, 18, 21, 23, 24]. In particular, Lashari and Zaman [12] considered the following vector-borne disease model with horizontal transmission in the host population,

    {dSh(t)dt=λhμhShβ1ShIhβ2ShIv,dEh(t)dt=β1ShIh+β2ShIv(αh+μh)Eh,dIh(t)dt=αhEh(μh+δh+γh)Ih,dRh(t)dt=γhIhμhRh,dSv(t)dt=λvkSvIhμvSv,dEv(t)dt=kSvIh(αv+μv)Ev,dIv(t)dt=αvEv(μv+δv)Iv, (1)

    where Sh, Eh, Ih, and Rh denote the susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered epidemiological classes in the host, respectively, while Sv, Ev, and Iv denote the susceptible, exposed, and infectious epidemiological classes in the vector, respectively. There is no recovered class for the vector (mosquitos) because no infected mosquito can recover from the infection. The biological meanings of the parameters in (1) are summarized in Table 1.

    Table 1. Biological meanings of parameters in (1).
    Parameter Meaning
    λh Per capita host birth rate
    μh Host death rate
    β1 Rate of horizontal transmission of the disease
    β2 Rate of a pathogen carrying mosquito biting susceptible host
    αh Inverse of host latent period
    δh Disease related death rate of host
    γh Recovery rate of host
    λv Per capita vector birth rate
    k Biting rate of per susceptible vector per host per unit time
    μv Vector death rate
    αv Inverse of vector latent period
    δv Disease related death rate of vectors
     | Show Table
    DownLoad: CSV

    It is well known that the infectivity varies during the infectious period and hence the time passed since being infected, called infection age, affects the number of secondary infections. In recent years, epidemic models with infection age have been extensively studied. For works on vector-borne diseases, not much has been done [10, 13, 17, 25], where only the host has infection age. In [10], an SI(host)SI(vector) model is proposed, which incorporated horizontal transmission. Under additional condition besides the basic reproduction ratio R0<1, it is shown that the disease-free steady state is globally asymptotically stable. Moreover, only the local stability of the endemic steady state is discussed. In [13], Lou and Zhao considered a periodic SEIRS(host)SEI(vector) model with standard incidence. It is shown that there exists at least one positive periodic state and that the disease persists when the basic reproduction ratio R0>1 while the disease will die out if R0<1. One of the models in [25] is an SIR(host)SI(vector) model with constant vector population and a threshold dynamics characterized by the basic reproduction number is obtained.

    The purpose of this paper is to modify (1) by introducing infection age into the host and study the dynamics of the resulted model. The remaining part of this paper is organized as follows. In the next section, we introduce the model and state some preliminary results on solutions. Then, in Section 3, we study the existence of equilibria and their local stability. Section 4 is the main part of this paper, where we establish a threshold dynamics with the approach of Lyapunov functional. The threshold dynamics is characterized only by the basic reproduction number. Here, to obtain the stability of the infected equilibrium, we need the existence of a global attractor and the uniformly strong persistence. The theoretical results are illustrated with numerical simulations in Section 5. The paper concludes with a brief summary.


    2. The model and preliminary results

    Our model is based on model (1). To build it, we further subdivide the infectious host according to the infection age a. Let ih(t,a) be the density of infectious hosts at time t with infection age a. Then a2a1ih(t,a)da is the number of infectious hosts with infection ages between a1 and a2 at time t and the total number of infectious hosts at time t is Ih(t)=0ih(t,a)da. We assume that the infectivity of infectious hosts, the biting rate of an infectious host by a susceptible vector, disease-induced death rate of infectious hosts, and the recovery rate of infectious hosts all depend on the infection age a and denote them by β1(a), k(a), δh(a), and γ(a), respectively. Then the rate of horizontal transmission of the disease from infectious hosts to susceptible hosts is 0β1(a)ih(t,a)da and the force of infection of the host to susceptible vectors is 0k(a)ih(t,a)da. Since the recovered hosts have permanent immunity, there is no need to consider the evolution of Rh in time. Based on our assumptions and model (1), the vector-borne disease model with infection age in host to be studied in this paper is as follows,

    {dSh(t)dt=λhSh(t)0β1(a)ih(t,a)daβ2Sh(t)Iv(t)μhSh(t),dEh(t)dt=Sh(t)0β1(a)ih(t,a)da+β2Sh(t)Iv(t)(αh+μh)Eh(t),ih(t,a)t+ih(t,a)a=δ(a)ih(t,a),dSv(t)dt=λv0k(a)Sv(t)ih(t,a)daμvSv(t),dEv(t)dt=0k(a)Sv(t)ih(t,a)da(αv+μv)Ev(t),dIv(t)dt=αvEv(t)μvIv(t),ih(t,0)=αhEh(t),t>0,Sh(0)=Sh0R+,  Eh(0)=Eh0R+,  ih(0,)=ih0L1+(0,),Sv(0)=Sv0R+,  Ev(0)=Ev0R+,  Iv(0)=Iv0R+, (2)

    where δ(a)=μh+δh(a)+γ(a), R+=[0,), and L1+(0,) is the nonnegative cone of L1(0,).

    To continue our discussion, in the sequel, we assume that k()L+(0,){0} and β1(), γ()L+(0,), where L+(0,) is the nonnegative cone of L(0,). Clearly, δ(a)μh for aR+. For (2), there should be an inherent relationship between the initial value and the boundary value for the partial differential equation, that is, ih(0,0)=ih0(0). Therefore, we always assume that the initial values satisfy αhEh0=ih0(0).

    Note that the partial differential equation in (2) is a linear transport equation with decay. With integration along the characteristic line ta=const., one can solve

    {ih(t,a)t+ih(t,a)a=δ(a)ih(t,a)ih(t,0)=αhEh(t),    t0

    to get

    ih(t,a)={σ(a)αhEh(ta)if t>a0σ(a)σ(at)ih(0,at)if at>0

    where σ(a)=exp(a0δ(s)ds) represents the probability that an infectious host survives to infection age a. Then we obtain the following equivalent system of integro-differential equations to (2),

    {dSh(t)dt=λhSh(t)0β1(a)ih(t,a)daβ2Sh(t)Iv(t)μhSh(t),dEh(t)dt=Sh(t)0β1(a)ih(t,a)da+β2Sh(t)Iv(t)(αh+μh)Eh(t),ih(t,a)=σ(a)αhEh(ta)1t>a+σ(a)σ(at)ih(0,at)1a>t,dSv(t)dt=λv0k(a)Sv(t)ih(t,a)daμvSv(t),dEv(t)dt=0k(a)Sv(t)ih(t,a)da(αv+μv)Ev(t),dIv(t)dt=αvEv(t)μvIv(t), (3)

    where

    1t>a={1if t>a00if at0and1a>t={0if t>a01if at0.

    Let

    X+=R2+×L1+(0,)×R3+,

    which is the nonnegative cone of the Banach space X=R2×L1(0,)×R3 equipped with norm defined by

    x=|x1|+|x2|+x31+|x4|+|x5|+|x6|

    for x=(x1,x2,x3,x4,x5,x6)X. With a reasonable modification of the proofs of Theorem 2.1 and Lemma 2.2 in Browne and Pilyugin [1], we can prove the existence and nonnegativeness of solutions to (3) and hence to (2).

    Theorem 2.1. For any xX+, system (2) has a unique solution on R+, which depends continuously on the initial value and time. Moreover, (Sh(t),Eh(t),ih(t,),Sv(t),Ev(t),Iv(t))X+ for tR+.

    In fact, every solution is bounded. On the one hand, let

    Nh(t)=Sh(t)+Eh(t)+0ih(t,a)da.

    Then we have dNh(t)dtλhμhNh(t) and hence lim suptNh(t)λh/μh. On the other hand, let

    Nv(t)=Sv(t)+Ev(t)+Iv(t).

    Then dNv(t)dt=λvμvNv(t), which implies that limtNv(t)=λv/μv. Denote

    Ω={(Sh,Eh,ih,Sv,Ev,Iv)X+|Sh+Eh+ih1λhμh,Sv+Ev+Iv=λvμv}.

    Then we have shown that Ω is an attracting set for (2). Moreover, one can easily see that Ω is also a positively invariant set for (2).


    3. The existence of equilibria and their local stability

    In this section, we study the local dynamics of (2). We first consider the existence of equilibria. It turns out that this only depends on the basic reproduction number R0, which is defined as

    R0=λh[ξαh(αv+μv)μ2v+β2λvαvηαh]μhμ2v(αh+μh)(αv+μv),

    where η=0k(a)σ(a)da and ξ=0β1(a)σ(a)da.

    Clearly, (2) always has the infection-free equilibrium E0=(S0h,0,0,S0v,0,0)Ω, where S0h=λh/μh,S0v=λv/μv. Let E=(Sh,Eh,ih,Sv,Ev,Iv) be an equilibrium. Then we have

    {λhμhShβ2ShIvSh0β1(a)ih(a)da=0,Sh0β1(a)ih(a)da+β2ShIv=(αh+μh)Eh,dih(a)da=δ(a)ih(a),ih(0)=αhEh,λv0k(a)Svih(a)daμvSv=0,0k(a)Svih(a)da=(αv+μv)Ev,αvEv=μvIv. (4)

    It is easy to see that an equilibrium other than E0 must be infected, that is, all components are positive. For an infected equilibrium, it is not difficult to deduce from (4) that

    Sh=λh(αh+μh)Ehμh,ih(a)=αhσ(a)Eh,Sv=λvμv+ηαhEh,Ev=λvηαhEh(αv+μv)(μv+ηαhEh),Iv=λvαvηαhEhμv(αv+μv)(μv+ηαhEh), (5)

    where Eh is a positive zero of H with

    H(x)=λh[ξαh(αv+μv)(μv+ηαhx)μv+β2αvλvηαh]μvμh(αh+μh)(αv+μv)(μv+ηαhx)β2αvλvηαhx(αh+μh)(αh+μh)(αv+μv)μvξαhx(μv+ηαhx). (6)

    Theorem 3.1. (i) Suppose R01. Then (2) only has the infection-free equilibrium E0.

    (ii) Suppose R0>1. Then, besides E0, (2) also has a unique infected equilibrium E=(Sh,Eh,ih,Sv,Ev,Iv), where Eh is the unique positive zero of H defined by (6) and the other components are determined by (5).

    Proof. (ⅰ) Since R01, we have λhξαhμh(αh+μh). Note that H is a quadratic function with negative coefficient for x2. Moreover, the coefficient of x in H(x) is

    λhξαh(αv+μv)ηαhμvμvμh(αh+μh)(αv+μv)ηαhβ2αvλvηαh(αh+μh)(αh+μh)(αv+μv)μvξαhμv<μh(αh+μh)(αv+μv)ηαhμvμvμh(αh+μh)(αv+μv)ηαh=0

    and H(0)=μhμ2v(αh+μh)(αv+μv)(R01)0. It follows that H(x) has no positive zeros and hence there is no infected equilibrium.

    (ⅱ) Now, since R0>1, we have H(0)=μhμ2v(αh+μh)(αv+μv)(R01)>0. Then H(x) has a unique positive zero since H(x) is a quadratic polynomial with negative coefficient for x2. Therefore, there is a unique infected equilibrium as described in the statement. This completes the proof.

    Now, we study the stability of the equilibria by linearization. For more detail, see Iannelli [9].

    Theorem 3.2. (i) The infection-free equilibrium E0 of (2) is locally asymptotically stable if R0<1 and it is unstable if R0>1.

    (ii) If R0>1, then the infected equilibrium E of (2) is locally asymptotically stable.

    Proof. (ⅰ) The characteristic equation at E0 is

    0=F(τ)Δ=(τ+αh+μh)(τ+μv)(τ+αv+μv)αhS0h[(τ+μv)(τ+αv+μv)0β1(a)σ(a)eτada+β2αvS0v0k(a)σ(a)eτada].

    First, assume R0>1. Then F(0)=μv(αh+μh)(αv+μv)(1R0)<0 and limτF(τ)=. By the Intermediate Value Theorem, F has a positive zero and hence E0 is unstable if R0>1.

    Next, assume R0<1. It suffices to show that all zeros of F have negative real parts. If this is not true, then F has a zero τ0 with Re(τ0)0. It follows that

    1=|αhS0h[(τ0+μv)(τ0+αv+μv)0β1(a)σ(a)eτ0ada+β2αvS0v0k(a)σ(a)eτ0ada]||(τ0+αh+μh)(τ0+μv)(τ0+αv+μv)|αhS0hξαh+μh+β2S0hαhαvS0vη(αh+μh)μv(αv+μv)=R0,

    which contradicts with R0<1. Therefore, E0 is locally asymptotically stable if R0<1.

    (ⅱ) For the infected equilibrium E, the associated characteristic equation is,

    (τ+A1)(τ+αh+μh)(τ+μv)(τ+A2)(τ+αv+μv)(τ+μh)αhSh[(τ+μv)(τ+αv+μv)0β1(a)σ(a)eτada(τ+A2)+β2αvSv(τ+μv)0k(a)σ(a)eτada]=0, (7)

    where A1=μh+β2Iv+0β1(a)ih(a)da and A2=μv+0k(a)ih(a)da. We claim that (7) has no root with a nonnegative real part. If the claim is not true, then (7) has a root ˆτ with Re(ˆτ)0. On the one hand,

    1=|(ˆτ+μh)(ˆτ+μv)αhSh[(ˆτ+αv+μv)0β1(a)σ(a)eˆτada(ˆτ+A2)+β2αvSv0k(a)σ(a)eˆτada]||(ˆτ+A1)(ˆτ+αh+μh)(ˆτ+μv)(ˆτ+A2)(ˆτ+αv+μv)||(ˆτ+μh)αhSh0β1(a)σ(a)da||(ˆτ+A1)(ˆτ+αh+μh)|+|(ˆτ+μh)(ˆτ+μv)αhShβ2αvSv0k(a)σ(a)da||(ˆτ+A1)(ˆτ+αh+μh)(ˆτ+μv)(ˆτ+A2)(ˆτ+αv+μv)|<|αhSh0β1(a)σ(a)da||(ˆτ+αh+μh)|+|αhShβ2αvSv0k(a)σ(a)da||(ˆτ+αh+μh)(ˆτ+μv)(ˆτ+αv+μv)|αhShξαh+μh+αhShβ2αvSvη(αh+μh)μv(αv+μv). (8)

    On the other hand, it follows from (4) that

    Iv=αvμvEv=αvμvηSvih(0)αv+μv

    and

    ih(0)=αhEh=αhξShih(0)αh+μh+αhβ2ShIvαh+μh=αhξShih(0)αh+μh+αhβ2Shαh+μhαvμvηSvih(0)αv+μv.

    This implies that αhShξαh+μh+αhShβ2αvSvη(αh+μh)μv(αv+μv)=1, a contradiction with (8). Therefore, the infected equilibrium E of (2) is locally asymptotically stable when R0>1.


    4. Global stability

    We first study the global stability of the infection-free equilibrium E0.

    Theorem 4.1. If R0<1, then the infection-free equilibrium E0 of (2) is globally asymptotically stable.

    Proof. Define

    ρ1(a)=ak(θ)eθaδ(s)dsdθ,ρ2(a)=aβ1(θ)eθaδ(s)dsdθ. (9)

    Obviously, ρ1(0)=η and ρ2(0)=ξ. Moreover, ρ1(a) and ρ2(a) are bounded and satisfy

    ρ1(a)=ρ1(a)δ(a)k(a)    and    ρ2(a)=ρ2(a)δ(a)β1(a)

    for aR+, respectively. Define the Lyapunov functional

    L=L(Sh,Eh,ih,Sv,Ev,Iv)=L1+L2+L3,

    where

    L1=1S0h(ShS0hS0hlnShS0h)+1S0hEh,L2=β2αvS0v(αv+μv)μv0ρ1(a)ih(t,a)da+0ρ2(a)ih(t,a)da,L3=β2αv(αv+μv)μv(SvS0vS0vlnSvS0v)+β2αvEv(αv+μv)μv+β2μvIv.

    Clearly, L() is non-negative and L(x)=0 if and only if x=E0.

    Now, we calculate the time derivatives of L1, L2, and L3 along solutions of (2) one by one. First,

    dL1dt=1S0h(1S0hSh)(λhSh0β1(a)ih(t,a)daβ2ShIvμhSh)+1S0h(Sh0β1(a)ih(t,a)da+β2ShIv(αh+μh)Eh)=μh(1S0hSh)(1ShS0h)(1S0hSh)ShS0h0β1(a)ih(t,a)daβ2IvShS0h(1S0hSh)+ShS0h0β1(a)ih(t,a)da+β2IvShS0hαh+μhS0hEh=μh(2S0hShShS0h)+0β1(a)ih(t,a)da+β2Ivαh+μhS0hEh.

    Next, applying integration by parts gives

    dL2dt=β2αvS0v(αv+μv)μv0ρ1(a)(ih(t,a)aδ(a)ih(t,a))da0ρ2(a)(ih(t,a)a+δ(a)ih(t,a))da=β2αvS0v(αv+μv)μv0(ρ1(a)ρ1(a)δ(a))ih(t,a)da+β2αvS0v(αv+μv)μvρ1(0)ih(t,0)+0(ρ2(a)ρ2(a)δ(a))ih(t,a)da+ρ2(0)ih(t,0)=β2αvS0v(αv+μv)μv0k(a)ih(t,a)da0β1(a)ih(t,a)da+β2αvS0v(αv+μv)μvηαhEh+ξαhEh.

    Finally,

    dL3dt=β2αv(αv+μv)μv(1S0vSv)(λv0k(a)Svih(t,a)daμvSv)+β2αv(αv+μv)μv(0k(a)Svih(t,a)da(αv+μv)Ev)+β2μv(αvEvμvIv)=β2αvS0vαv+μv(2S0vSvSvS0v)+β2αvS0v(αv+μv)μv0k(a)ih(t,a)daβ2Iv.

    Here we have used λv=μvS0v.

    In summary, we have shown that

    dLdt=dL1dt+dL2dt+dL3dt=μh(2S0hShShS0h)+β2αvS0vαv+μv(2S0vSvSvS0v)+(β2αvS0v(αv+μv)μvηαh+ξαhαh+μhS0h)Eh=μh(2S0hShShS0h)+β2αvS0vαv+μv(2S0vSvSvS0v)+(αh+μh)μhλh(R01)Eh.

    It follows that dLdt0 if R0<1. Furthermore, the equality dLdt=0 holds if and only if Sh(t)=S0h, Sv(t)=S0v, and Eh(t)=0 for tR+. It is easy to see that {E0} is the largest invariant set in {dLdt=0}. By the LaSalle invariance principle [11], E0 is globally attractive. This, combined with Theorem 3.2, implies that E0 is globally asymptotically stable.

    In order to study the global stability of the infected equilibrium E, we need the following preparation.

    According to Theorem 2.1, there is a continuous solution semiflow of (2), denoted by Φ:R+×X+X+, where

    Φ(t,x)=(Sh(t),Eh(t),ih(t,),Sv(t),Ev(t),Iv(t))   for (t,x)R+×X+

    with (Sh(t),Eh(t),ih(t,),Sv(t),Ev(t),Iv(t)) being the solution of (2) with the initial value (Sh0,Eh0,ih0,Sv0,Ev0,Iv0)=x. The semiflow Φ is also written as {Φ(t)}tR+.

    Define ρ:X+R+ by

    ρ(Sh,Eh,ih,Sv,Ev,Iv)=Sh0β1(a)ih(a)da+β2ShIv

    for (Sh,Eh,ih,Sv,Ev,Iv)X+. Let

    X0+={xX+|there exists t0R+ such that ρ(Φ(t0,x))>0}.

    Clearly, if xX+X0+ then Φ(t,x)E0 as t. With the help of Lemma 3.2 of Hale [7] and Theorem 2.3 of Thieme [22], one can obtain the following results with standard arguments (see, for example, Chen et al. [2]).

    Theorem 4.2. Suppose R0>1. Then the following statements are true.

    (i) There exists a global attractor A for the solution semiflow Φ of (2) in X0+.

    (ii) System (2) is uniformly strongly ρ-persistent, that is, there exists an ε0>0 (independent of initial values) such that

    lim inftρ(Φ(t,x))>ε0     for xX0+.

    Note that the global attractor A only can contain points with total trajectories through them since it must be invariant. A total trajectory of Φ is a function X:RX+ such that Φ(s,X(t))=X(t+s) for all tR and all sR+. For a total trajectory,

    ih(t,a)=ih(ta)σ(a)     for all tR and aR+.

    The alpha limit of a total trajectory X(t) passing through X(0)=X0 is

    α(X0)=t0¯st{X(s)}AX0+.

    Corollary 1. Suppose R0>1. Then there exists an ε0>0 such that Sh(t), Eh(t), ih(t,0), Sv(t), Ev(t), Iv(t)ε0 for all tR, where (Sh(t),Eh(t),ih(t,),Sv(t),Ev(t),Iv(t)) is any total trajectory in A.

    Proof. First, since Ω is attracting and invariant, there exists TR+ such that, for tT,

    Sh(t),Eh(t),0ih(t,a)da3λh2μh

    and

    Sv(t),Ev(t),Iv(t)3λv2μv.

    Then, for tT, it follows from the first equation of (2) that

    dSh(t)dtλh(μh+3λhβ12μh+3λvβ22μv)Sh(t),

    which implies lim inftSh(t)λhμh+3λhβ12μh+3λvβ22μvΔ=ε1. By invariance, Sh(t)ε1 for tR. Similarly, Sv(t)λvμv+3λhk2μhΔ=ε2 for tR.

    Next, by Theorem 4.2 and invariance, there exists ε3>0 such that Sh(t)0β1(a)ih(t,a)da+β2Sh(t)Iv(t)ε3 for tR. This, combined with the second equation of (2), gives

    dEh(t)dtε3(αh+μh)Eh(t)      for tR.

    It follows that lim inftEh(t)ε3αh+μhΔ=ε4 and hence Eh(t)ε4 for tR by invariance again. Therefore, ih(t,0)=αhEh(t)αhε4Δ=ε5 for tR. Then, for tR,

    dEv(t)dtε20k(a)ih(ta,0)σ(a)da(αv+μv)Ev(t)ε2ε50k(a)σ(a)da(αv+μv)Ev(t)=ε2ε5η(αv+μv)Ev(t),

    which implies that Ev(t)ε2ε5ηαv+μvΔ=ε6 for tR. Finally, from dIv(t)dtαvε6μvIv(t) for tR, we can similarly get Iv(t)αvε6μvΔ=ε7 for tR.

    Letting ε0=min{ε1,ε2,ε4,ε5,ε6,ε7} finishes the proof.

    Now, we are ready to establish the global stability of the infected equilibrium E with the approach of Lyapunov functionals.

    Theorem 4.3. If R0>1, then the infected equilibrium E of (2) is globally asymptotically stable in X0+.

    Proof. By Theorem 3.2, it suffices to show that A={E}. To build a Lyapunov functional, we need the function g:(0,)zz1lnzR. Note that g(z)0 for z(0,) and g(z)=0 if and only if z=1.

    Let X(t)=(Sh(t),Eh(t),ih(t,),Sv(t),Ev(t),Iv(t)) be a total trajectory in A. Note that all Sh(t), Eh(t), ih(t,0), Sv(t), Ev(t), and Iv(t) are bounded above. Moreover, by Corollary 1, they are also bounded away from 0. Therefore, there exists an ε0>0 such that 0g(z)<ε0 for z=Sh(t)Sh, Eh(t)Eh, ih(t,0)ih(0), Sv(t)Sv, Ev(t)Ev, and Iv(t)Iv for all tR. Noting ih(t,a)ih(a)=ih(ta,0)ih(0), we have 0g(ih(t,a)ih(a))<ε0 for all tR and aR+.

    Define a Lyapunov functional

    W=W(Sh,Eh,ih,Sv,Ev,Iv)=W1+W2+W3,

    where

    W1=g(ShSh)+EhShg(EhEh),W2=β2IvηαhEh0ρ1(a)ih(a)g(ih(t,a)ih(a))da+0ρ2(a)ih(a)g(ih(t,a)ih(a))da,W3=β2αvSv(αv+μv)μvg(SvSv)+β2αvEv(αv+μv)μvg(EvEv)+β2Ivμvg(IvIv).

    Here ρ1 and ρ2 are those functions defined by (9). Then W is well-defined and is bounded on X(t). In the following, we calculate the time derivative of the components of W along solutions of (2) one by one.

    Firstly,

    dW1dt=1Sh(1ShSh)(λhSh0β1(a)ih(t,a)daβ2ShIvμhSh)+1Sh(1EhEh)(Sh0β1(a)ih(t,a)da+β2ShIv(αh+μh)Eh).

    This, combined with

    λh=Sh(ξαhEh+μh+β2Iv),(αh+μh)EhSh=ξαhEh+β2Iv,(αh+μh)EhSh=ξαhEh+β2IvEhEh,

    gives

    dW1dt=1Sh(1ShSh)(μhShμhSh+Sh(ξαhEh+β2Iv))1Sh(1ShSh)Sh0β1(a)ih(t,a)da1Sh(1ShSh)β2ShIv+ShSh0β1(a)ih(t,a)daEhShEhSh0β1(a)ih(t,a)da+β2IvShShβ2IvIvShEhIvShEhαh+μhShEh+αh+μhShEh=μh(2ShShShSh)+(ξαhEh+β2Iv)(1ShSh)+0β1(a)ih(t,a)da+β2Iv0β1(a)ih(t,a)EhShEhShdaβ2IvIvShEhIvShEhξαhEhβ2IvEhEh+ξαhEh+β2Iv.

    Secondly,

    dW2dt=β2IvηαhEh0ρ1(a)(1ih(a)ih(t,a))(ih(t,a)aδ(a)ih(t,a))da+0ρ2(a)(1ih(a)ih(t,a))(ih(t,a)aδ(a)ih(t,a))da.

    Note that ρ1(0)=η and

    ih(a)a(g(ih(t,a)ih(a)))=(1ih(a)ih(t,a))(ih(t,a)a+δ(a)ih(t,a)).

    Then, with integration by parts, we obtain

    0ρ1(a)(1ih(a)ih(t,a))(ih(t,a)a+δ(a)ih(t,a))da=0ρ1(a)ih(a)a(g(ih(t,a)ih(a)))da=ρ1(a)ih(a)g(ih(t,a)ih(a))|a=a=00g(ih(t,a)ih(a))(ρ1(a)ih(a)+ρ1(a)ih(a))da=ρ1(a)ih(a)g(ih(t,a)ih(a))|a=ρ1(0)ih(0)g(ih(t,0)ih(0))+0k(a)ih(a)g(ih(t,a)ih(a))da.

    Similarly,

    0ρ2(a)(1ih(a)ih(t,a))(ih(t,a)a+δ(a)ih(t,a))da=ρ2(a)ih(a)g(ih(t,a)ih(a))|a=ρ2(0)ih(0)g(ih(t,0)ih(0))+0β1(a)ih(a)g(ih(t,a)ih(a))da.

    Therefore, with the help of ih(t,0)=αhEh and ih(0)=αhEh, we get

    dW2dt=β2Ivg(EhEh)β2IvηαhEhρ1(a)ih(a)g(ih(t,a)ih(a))|a=β2IvηαhEh0k(a)ih(a)g(ih(t,a)ih(a))da+ξαhEhg(EhEh)ρ2(a)ih(a)g(ih(t,a)ih(a))|a=0β1(a)ih(a)g(ih(t,a)ih(a))da.

    Finally,

    dW3dt=β2Iv(αv+μv)Ev(1SvSv)(λv0k(a)Svih(t,a)daμvSv)+β2Iv(αv+μv)Ev(1EvEv)(0k(a)Svih(t,a)da(αv+μv)Ev)+β2μv(1IvIv)(αvEvμvIv).

    Since

    λv=μvSv+ηαhEhSv,ηαhEhSv=(αv+μv)Ev,β2Iv(αv+μv)Ev=β2IvηαhEhSv,

    we have

    dW3dt=β2IvηαhEhSv(1SvSv)(μvSvμvSv)+β2IvηαhEhSv(1SvSv)ηαhEhSvβ2IvηαhEhSv(1SvSv)Sv0k(a)ih(t,a)da+β2IvηαhEhSv(1EvEv)Sv0k(a)ih(t,a)daβ2Iv(1EvEv)EvEv+β2IvEvEvβ2Ivβ2IvIvEvIvEv+β2Iv=β2IvμvηαhEh(2SvSvSvSv)β2Iv(SvSv1)+β2Iv0k(a)ih(t,a)daβ2IvηαhEhEvSvEvSv0k(a)ih(t,a)da+β2Ivβ2Ivβ2IvIvEvIvEv+β2Iv.

    To summarize, we have obtained

    dWdt=μh(2ShShShSh)(ξαhEh+β2Iv)(ShSh1lnShSh)0β1(a)ih(a)(ih(t,a)EhShih(a)EhSh1lnih(t,a)EhShih(a)EhSh)daβ2IvIvShEhIvShEh(ξαhEh+β2Iv)(EhEh1lnEhEh)+β2Ivg(EhEh)+ξαhEhg(EhEh)(β2IvηαhEhρ1(a)+ρ2(a))ih(a)g(ih(t,a)ih(a))|a=β2IvηαhEh0k(a)ih(a)(ih(t,a)EvSvih(a)EvSv1lnih(t,a)EvSvih(a)EvSv)da+β2IvμvηαhEh(2SvSvSvSv)β2Iv(SvSv1lnSvSv)β2Iv(IvEvIvEv1lnIvEvIvEv)+β2Iv(1+lnIvShEhIvShEh)=μh(2ShShShSh)(ξαhEh+β2Iv)g(ShSh)0β1(a)ih(a)g(ih(t,a)EhShih(a)EhSh)daβ2Ivg(IvShEhIvShEh)(β2IvηαhEhρ1(a)+ρ2(a))ih(a)g(ih(t,a)ih(a))|a=β2IvηαhEh0k(a)ih(a)g(ih(t,a)EvSvih(a)EvSv)da+β2IvμvηαhEh(2SvSvSvSv)β2Ivg(SvSv)β2Ivg(IvEvIvEv)0.

    Therefore, W is nonincreasing. Since W is bounded on X(), the alpha limit set of X() must be contained in the largest invariant subset of {dWdt=0}, which is easily identified to be {E}. It follows that W(X(t))W(E) for all tR. This gives X(t)E and hence A={E}, which completes the proof.


    5. Numerical simulations

    In this section, we illustrate the theoretical results obtained in Section 4 with numerical simulations. For this purpose, we take k(a)=k. For the form of β1(a), we give some explanation. In general, when the infection age a is relatively small, the age-dependent horizontal transmission rate β1(a) of the disease from the infectious hosts to susceptible hosts is relatively small. With the increase of the infection age, the infection rate also increases and then tends to a constant. When the infection age is very large, the infection rate is reduced to 0 due to the loss of infectivity. Similar explanation can be given for the form of the age-dependent recovery rate γ(a). For some more details, we refer readers to [4, 6]. Therefore, we take the following forms for β1 and γ in the simulations.

    β1(a)={c1,0a<10,c1+c2(a10)e0.009(a25)2,10a<25,c2,25a<50,0,a50,

    and

    γ(a)={0,0a<10,c315(arctan50)(a10),10a<25,c3arctan(75a),25a<50,c3arctan(25),a50.

    We first set parameters λh=10, λv=500, μh=0.008, β2=1.81×107, μv=0.05, αh=0.833, αv=0.05, k=4.1665×105, c1=0.00003, c2=0.00005, and c3=5.6×106, which are chosen from some recent studies [4, 6]. With these parameters, the basic reproductive number is R0=0.8286<1. Thus, the infection-free equilibrium E0 is globally asymptotically stable by Theorem 4.1. Fig. 1 shows the time evolution of the solution with the initial value (1000,100,5(a+3)e0.2(a+3),10000,100,1000).

    Figure 1. When R0<1, the infection-free equilibrium E0 of (2) is globally asymptotically stable. Here since Eh(t) converges to 0 very fast, we use the time interval [0,100] different from the interval [0,1000] for other components.

    Next, we take another set of parameter values, λh=10, λv=500, μh=0.008, β2=1.81×106, μv=0.01, αh=0.08333, αv=0.05, k=4.1665×105, c1=0.00003, c2=0.00005, and c3=5.6×106. In this case, R0=9.2655>1. Then Theorem 4.3 tells us that the infected equilibrium E is globally asymptotically stable. Fig. 2 supports this with the time evolution of the solution with the initial value (1000,100,0.5(a+3)e0.2(a+3),10000,100,1000).

    Figure 2. When R0>1, the infected equilibrium E of (2) is globally asymptotically stable.

    6. Conclusion

    Infection age is a very important factor in the transmission of infectious diseases such as malaria, TB, and HIV. In this paper, we incorporated infection age into a vector-host epidemic model with direct transmission. In the model, we also took into account the exposed individuals in both human and vector populations. We assumed that the level of contagiousness and the rate of removal (recovery) of infected hosts depend on the infection age. Therefore, our model is described by a system of ordinary differential equations coupled with a partial differential equation, which is very challenging to study because it is an infinitely dimensional system. With the approach of Lyapunov functionals and some recently developed techniques on global analysis in [15, 16], we have established a threshold dynamics completely determined by the basic reproduction number. That is, the infection-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number is less than one while the infected equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number is greater than one. Numerical simulations are conducted to illustrate the stability results.

    Our result supports the claim that infection age can affect the number of average secondary infections, that is, the effect of infection age is embodied in the expression of the basic reproduction number R0. By appropriate control measures, one can decrease the survival probability to infection age a, σ(a), the horizontal transmission rate β1(a), and the biting rate k(a). This will decrease the value of R0 and possibly will eliminate the disease. Even if we cannot eliminate the disease, from the expression of the infected equilibrium one can easily show that this will decrease the levels of Eh, ih(0), Ev, and Iv. Because of the globally asymptotical stability of E, we can keep the infection at a tolerance level.


    Acknowledgments

    X. Wang is supported by the NSFC (No. 11771374), the Nanhu Scholar Program for Young Scholars of Xinyang Normal University, the Program for Science and Technology Innovation Talents in Universities of Henan Province (17HASTIT011). Y. Chen is supported by the NSERC.


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