
In December 2019, the severe respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 was discovered in China. The virus spread rapidly and, by March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 to be a global pandemic. Scientists expected the African continent to be among the worst affected by the sanitary emergency in terms of prevalence, incidence and mortality. This prediction was refuted by evidence, considering that Africa reported the least number of cases and deaths compared to Europe, Asia and America. The first case in Africa was registered in Egypt on February 14, 2020. By the end of 2021, the continent recorded a cumulative of 7,110,817 cases and 155,505 deaths. Nonetheless, estimates are likely to be distorted due to the lack of available data about the impact of COVID-19 and the limited documentary capacity of most African countries. There are several theories to explain why, contrary to the expected trend, Africa had the fewest COVID-19 incidences compared to other continents. Africa is characterized by a young population, which is notoriously less susceptible to COVID-19, with an average age of 19.7 years. In addition, most of the Africans (59%) live in rural areas, with few opportunities to travel or get in contact with outsiders. Moreover, governments enforced outstanding measures to contain the spread of the virus and safeguard the national economy, such as strengthening their documentary capacity and enforcing effective social safety nets. However, most of these policies have aggravated entrenched patterns of discrimination, making certain populations uniquely vulnerable. Indeed, mobility restrictions and border closures severely affected people with mobile livelihoods. In Morocco, the emergency measures compromised the resilience capacity of sub-Saharan migrants, particularly women and girls. To study the phenomenon of African migration to Morocco, we conducted fieldwork research from October to December 2021, interrupted by the closure of the kingdom's borders, and continued remotely thanks to key informants.
Citation: Daniela Santus, Sara Ansaloni. Mobility issues and multidimensional inequalities: exploring the limits of the National Strategy for Immigration and Asylum during the COVID-19 pandemic in Morocco[J]. AIMS Geosciences, 2023, 9(1): 191-218. doi: 10.3934/geosci.2023011
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In December 2019, the severe respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 was discovered in China. The virus spread rapidly and, by March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 to be a global pandemic. Scientists expected the African continent to be among the worst affected by the sanitary emergency in terms of prevalence, incidence and mortality. This prediction was refuted by evidence, considering that Africa reported the least number of cases and deaths compared to Europe, Asia and America. The first case in Africa was registered in Egypt on February 14, 2020. By the end of 2021, the continent recorded a cumulative of 7,110,817 cases and 155,505 deaths. Nonetheless, estimates are likely to be distorted due to the lack of available data about the impact of COVID-19 and the limited documentary capacity of most African countries. There are several theories to explain why, contrary to the expected trend, Africa had the fewest COVID-19 incidences compared to other continents. Africa is characterized by a young population, which is notoriously less susceptible to COVID-19, with an average age of 19.7 years. In addition, most of the Africans (59%) live in rural areas, with few opportunities to travel or get in contact with outsiders. Moreover, governments enforced outstanding measures to contain the spread of the virus and safeguard the national economy, such as strengthening their documentary capacity and enforcing effective social safety nets. However, most of these policies have aggravated entrenched patterns of discrimination, making certain populations uniquely vulnerable. Indeed, mobility restrictions and border closures severely affected people with mobile livelihoods. In Morocco, the emergency measures compromised the resilience capacity of sub-Saharan migrants, particularly women and girls. To study the phenomenon of African migration to Morocco, we conducted fieldwork research from October to December 2021, interrupted by the closure of the kingdom's borders, and continued remotely thanks to key informants.
Zika infection is a kind of vector-borne disease caused and spread by the bite infected Aedes mosquitos. The Zika infection was first discovered in Uganda in 1947. In 2007, the first case of Zika virus was reported occurred in the Island of Yap (Federated States of Micronesia). After that, it spread very quickly in Asia, Africa and USA [1]. The Aides mosquitoes is the main source from which the Zika virus is spread and is also responsible for dengue infection. The transmission of virus of Zika infection to humans occurred by the bites of infected female mosquitoes from the Aedes genus. This infection can also be transmitted having unprotected sexual relations, if one partner is suffering from Zika virus. People who have infected with Zika will have mild symptom due to which they feel mild illness and get severe ailment. Zika infected people main symptoms are skin rashes, headache, mild fever, conjunctivitis, and muscle pains. Usually the symptoms last for 2–7 days but sometimes the infected individuals due to Zika virus de not developed symptoms. This infection can also affect a pregnant women to her developing fetus [2,3]. If this happened then most probably the newly born babies have abnormal brain and small head development along with muscle weakness which effects nervous system.
Epidemic models are used as powerful tool to predict the dynamics and control of various communicable diseases. These models usually consist of nonlinear differential equations describing the dynamics of the concern disease. A number of transmission models and effective possible controlling strategies have been developed in literature to explore the effective strategies for controlling of Zika infection in different regions around the globe. Kucharsk et al. [4] proposed a mathematical model and provided a detail analysis of French Polynesia Zika outbreak appeared in 2013-14. Kucharsk et al. used the total Zika infected cases between October 2013 till April 2014 which are reported in six main places of French Polynesia for model parameters estimation. Bonyah and Okosun [5] used optimal control theory to derived three different controlling strategies to reduce the spreed of this infection. The impact of bednets, used of insecticides spry and possible treatment was studied in detail in [6]. However, these models are based integer-order classical differential systems. The classical integer-order derivatives have some limitations as they are local in nature and do not posses the memory effects which are appear in most of biological systems. Secondly, classical derivative are unable to provides information about the rate of changes between two points not necessarily same. To overcome such limitations of local derivatives, various concepts on new derivatives with non-integer or fractional order were developed in recent years and can e found in [7,9,10]. The classical Caputo fractional operator [7] has been used to model many complex phenomena in different fields. For example in [11], a numerical scheme was proposed for of the diffusive fractional HBV model in Caputo sense. A numerical scheme for Caputo fractional reaction-diffusion equation and its stability analysis can be found in [12]. Also a detail stability analysis and simulations of Caputo sub-diffusion equation has been developed in [13]. The real world application of non-local and non-singular fractional operator [9] can be found in [14]. A comparative analysis Sturm-Liouville fractional problems has been carried out in [15]. Other applications of singular and non-singular fractional order operators in modeling various phenomena can be found in [18,16,19,20,17]. There is no rich literate on the modeling of Zika virus in fractional order. Only few models with fractional order has been presented in literature for Zika infection [21,22]. Keeping the above discussion in view and applicability of fractional order derivatives, in the preset investigation, a mathematical transmission model is considered in the Caputo sense in order to explore the dynamics of the Zika virus. We simulate the proposed Zika model for different values of relevant parameters and for several values of arbitrary fractional order
The structure of the paper is follows is as: groundwork of the fractional derivative is given in Section 2. The basic model formulation is given in Section 3. Sections 4 is devoted to explore the basic properties of the model. Sections 5 and 6 are concern to obtain the stability results of the model equilibria. Graphical analysis are given in Section 7. The whole work is summarized with a brief conclusion in Section 8.
The basic definitions regarding the fractional derivative in Caputo sense are as follows [7,8]:
Definition 2.1. The Caputo fractional derivative of order
CDαt(h(t))=1Γ(n−α)∫t0h(n)ξ(t−ξ)α−n+1dξ. |
Clearly
Definition 2.2. The corresponding fractional integral having order
Iαt(h(t))=1Γ(α)∫t0(t−ξ)α−1h(ξ)dξ, |
where
Definition 2.3. The constant point
CDαtx(t)=h(t,x(t)),α∈(0,1), | (2.1) |
if and only if it observed that
To present the stability analysis of nonlinear fractional systems in the Caputo sense via Lyapunov method we first recall the following necessary results from [23,24].
Theorem 2.4. Suppose
W1(x)≤L(t,x(t))≤W2(x), |
and
CDαtL(t,x(t))≤−W3(x), |
Next we recall the following lemma from [24], which we will use in presenting the global stability via Lyapunov function.
Lemma 2.5. For a continuous and derivable function
CDαt{z(t)−z∗−z∗lnz(t)z∗}≤(1−z∗z(t))CDαtz(t),z∗∈R+. |
To formulate the model, we divide the human population into two sub-classes, susceptible individuals and infected individuals. The total human population is represented by
{CDαtx1=Λh−β1γ1x1(t)x4(t)−d1x1(t),CDαtx2=β1γ1x1(t)x4(t)−d1x2(t),CDαtx3=Λm−β2γ2x2(t)x3(t)−d2x3(t),CDαtx4=β2γ2x2(t)x3(t)−d2x4(t), | (3.1) |
with the initial conditions
x1(0)=x10≥0, x2(0)=x20≥0, x3(0)=x30≥0, x4(0)=x40≥0. |
In the above proposed model
In order to present the non-negativity of the system solution, let
R4+={y∈R4∣y≥0} and y(t)=(x1(t),x2(t),x3(t),x4(t))T. |
To proceeds further, first we recall the generalized mean values theorem [25].
Lemma 4.1. Let suppose that
h(t)=h(a)+1Γ(α)(CDαth)(ζ)(t−a)α, |
with
Corollary 4.2. Suppose that
(i) CDαth(t)≥0,∀ t∈(a,b), then h(t) is non−decreasing. |
(ii) CDαth(t)≤0,∀ t∈(a,b), then h(t) is non−increasing. |
We are now able to give the following result.
Theorem 4.3. A unique solution
Proof. The exitance of the Caputo fractional Zika model can be shown with the help of theorem 3.1 from [26,27], while the uniqueness of the solution can be easily obtained by making use of the Remark 3.2 in [26] for all positive values of
CDαtx1∣x1=0=Λh≥0, CDαtx2∣x2=0=β1γ1x1(t)x4(t)≥0,CDαtx3∣x3=0=Λm≥0, CDαtx4∣x4=0=β2γ2x2(t)x3(t)≥0. |
Hence, using the above corollary (4.2), we obtain the desired target i.e. the solution will remain in
Φ={(x1,x2,x3,x4)∈R4+:x1,x2,x3,x4≥0 }. |
Next we explore the equilibria and basic threshold quantity
The equilibria of our proposed system (3.1) are obtained by solving the system below
CDαtx1= CDαtx2= CDαtx3= CDαtx4=0. |
Hence we deduced that the proposed model exhibit two type of equilibrium points. The disease free equilibrium (DFE) calculated as
E0=(x01,x02,x03,x04)=(Λhd1,0,Λmd2,0), |
and the endemic equilibrium (EE) is as evaluated as follows
x∗1=Λhd1+x∗4β1γ1,x∗2=Λhx∗4β1γ1d1(d1+x∗4β1γ1),x∗3=d1Λm(d1+β1γ1x∗4)β1γ1x∗4(d1d2+β2γ2Λh)+d2d21. | (4.1) |
The EE
F=(0β1γ1Λhd1β2γ2Λmd20), V=(d100d2). |
Further, the inverse of V is
V−1=(1d1001d2), FV−1=(0β1γ1Λhd1d2β2γ2Λmd1d20) |
The spectral radius
R0=√ΛhΛmβ2γ2β1γ1d21d22. |
In this section we proceed to confirm the stability results in both local and global case. The Jacobian of linearization matrix of model (3.1).
JE0=(−d100−β1γ1Λhd10−d10β1γ1Λhd10−β2γ2Λmd2−d200β2γ2Λmd20−d2). |
Theorem 5.1. For positive integers
det(diag[λp1λp1λp1λp1]−JE0)=0. | (5.1) |
Proof. By expansion of Eq. (5.1), we get the below equation in term of
(λr1+d1)(λr1+d2)(λ2r1+a1λr1+a2)=0, | (5.2) |
where the coefficients are given below:
a1=d1+d2,a2=d1d1(1−R0). |
The arguments of the roots of the equation
arg(λk)=πr1+k2πr1>πN>π2N,wherek=0,1⋯,(r1−1). | (5.3) |
In similar pattern, it can be shown that argument of the roots of
For global stability result we prove the following theorem. This subsection provide the global analysis of the model for the DF and endemic case. We have the following results.
Theorem 5.2. For arbitrary fractional order
Proof. To prove our result we define consider the following Lyapunov function
V(t)=W1(x1−x01−x01lnx1x01)+W2x2+W3(x3−x03−x03lnx3x03)+W4x4. | (5.4) |
Where
CDαtV(t)=W1(x1−x01x1) CDαtx1+W2 CDαtx2+W3(x3−x03x3) CDαtx3+W4 CDαtx4=W1(x1−x01x1)[Λh−d1x1−β1γ1x4x1]+W2[β1γ1x4x1−d1x2]+W3(x3−x03x3)[Λm−d2x3−β2γ2x3x2]+W4[β2γ2x3x2−d2x4]=(W2−W1)[β1γ1x4x1]+(W4−W3)[β2γ2x3x2]+x4(W1β1γ1x01−W4d2)+x2(W3β2γ2x03−W2d1). |
Using
CDαtV=(W2−W1)[β1γ1x4x1]+(W4−W3)[β2γ2x3x2]+x4(W1β1γ1Λhd1−W4d2)+x2(W3β1γ1Λmd2−W2d1). |
Choosing the constants
CDαtV=x4d1d2(R0−1). |
Here, we present the global stability of the system (3.1) at
{Λh=β1γ1x∗4x∗1+d1x∗1,d1x∗2=β1γ1x∗4x∗1,Λm=β2γ2x∗3x∗2+d2x∗3,d2x∗4=β2γ2x∗3x∗2. | (6.1) |
Theorem 6.1. If
Proof. We consider the following Lyapunov function:
L(t)=(x1−x∗1−x∗1logx1x∗1)+(x2−x∗2−x∗2logx2x∗2)+(x3−x∗3−x∗3logx3x∗3)+(x4−x∗4−x∗4logx4x∗4). |
Using lemma (5.1), the derivative of
CDαtL=(1−x∗1x1) CDαtx1+(1−x∗2x2) CDαtx2+(1−x∗3x3) CDαtx3+(1−x∗4x4) CDαtx4. |
By direct calculations, we have that:
(1−x∗1x1) CDαtx1=(1−x∗1x1)(Λh−d1x1−β1γ1x4x1)(1−x∗2x2) CDαtx2=(1−x∗2x2)(β1γ1x4x1−d1x2)(1−x∗3x3) CDαtx3=(1−x∗3x3)(Λm−d2x3−β2γ2x3x2)(1−x∗4x4) CDαtx2=(1−x∗4x4)(β2γ2x3x2−d2x4). | (6.2) |
(1−x∗1x1) CDαtx1=(1−x∗1x1)(Λh−d1x1−β1γ1x4x1)=(1−x∗1x1)(d2x∗1+β1γ1x∗4x∗1−d2x1−β1γ1x4x1)=d2x∗1(1−x∗1x1)(1−x1x∗1)+(1−x∗1x1)(β1γ1x∗4x∗1−β1γ1x4x1)=d2x∗1(2−x∗1x1−x1x∗1)+β1γ1x∗4x∗1−β1γ1x4x1−β1γ1x∗4x∗1x∗1x1+β1γ1x4x∗1. | (6.3) |
(1−x∗2x2) CDαtx2=(1−x∗2x2)(β1γ1x4x1−d1x2)=β1γ1x4x1−d1x2−β1γ1x4x1x∗2x2+d1x∗2=β1γ1x4x1−β1γ1x∗4x∗1x2x∗2−β1γ1x4x1x∗2x2+β1γ1x∗4x∗1. | (6.4) |
(1−x∗3x3) CDαtx3=(1−x∗3x3)(Λm−d2x3−β2γ2x3x2)=(1−x∗3x3)(d2x∗3+β2γ2x∗3x∗2−d2x3−β2γ2x3x2)=d2x∗3(1−x∗3x3)(1−x3x∗3)+(1−x∗3x3)(β2γ2x∗3x∗2−β2γ2x3x2)=d2x∗3(2−x∗3x3−x3x∗3)+β2γ2x∗3x∗∗2−β2γ2x3x2−β2γ2x∗3x∗∗3x∗3x3+β2γ2x3x∗2. | (6.5) |
(1−x∗4x4) CDαtx4=(1−x∗4x4)(β2γ2x3x2−d2x4)=β2γ2x3x2−d2x4−β2γ2x3x2x∗4x4+d2x∗4=β2γ2x3x2−β2γ2x∗3x∗x2x4x∗4−β2γ2x3x2x∗4x4+β2γ2x∗3x∗2. | (6.6) |
It follows from (6.3-6.6)
CDαtL=d1x∗1(2−x∗1x1−x1x∗1)+β1γ1x∗4x∗1(2−x∗1x1−x2x∗2−x4x∗4(x1x∗2x∗1x2−1))+d2x∗3(2−x∗3x3−x3x∗3)+β2γ2x∗3x∗2(2−x∗3x3−x4x∗4−x2x∗2(x3x∗4x∗3x4−1)). | (6.7) |
Make use of arithmetical-geometrical inequality we have in equation (6.7)
d1x∗1(2−x∗1x1−x1x∗1)≤0,d2x∗3(2−x∗3x3−x3x∗3)≤0,β1γ1x∗4x∗1(2−x∗1x1−xx2x∗2−x3x∗3(x1x∗2x∗1x2−1))≤0,β2γ2x∗3x∗2(2−x∗3x3−x4x∗4−x2x∗2(x3x∗4x∗3x4−1))≤0. |
Therefore,
The present section is devoted to obtain the numerical results of the proposed Zika fractional order model (3.1). The Adams-type predictor-corrector method is applied to obtained the approximate solution of the model. The numerical values used in the simulations are
Zika is a rapidly spreading epidemic and is one of serious health issue, specially for pregnant women. A number of deterministic models have been presented in last few year, for the possible control and eradication of this infection from the community. But, almost all of these models are based on classical or local derivative. In order to better explore the complex behavior of Zika infection, in this paper, a fractional order transmission model in Caputo sense is developed. The detail analysis such as positivity and existence of the solution, basic reproduction numberer and model equilibria of the proposed model are presented. The stability results for both local and global cases are derived in detail in fractional environment. From the numerical results we conclude that the fractional order derivative provides more information about the proposed model which are unable by classical integer-order epidemic models. Also these results ensure that by including the memory effects in the model seems very appropriate for such an investigation. In future, we will explore the proposed model using non-local and non-singular fractional derivatives presented in [9,10].
All authors declare no conflict of interest.
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