Influence of COVID-19 vaccination on the dynamics of new infected cases in the world

Mustafa Kamal; Mintodê Nicodème Atchadé; Yves Morel Sokadjo; Sabir Ali Siddiqui; Fathy H. Riad; M. M. Abd El-Raouf; Ramy Aldallal; Eslam Hussam; Huda M. Alshanbari; Hassan Alsuhabi; Ahmed M. Gemeay; Mustafa Kamal; Mintodê Nicodème Atchadé; Yves Morel Sokadjo; Sabir Ali Siddiqui; Fathy H. Riad; M. M. Abd El-Raouf; Ramy Aldallal; Eslam Hussam; Huda M. Alshanbari; Hassan Alsuhabi; Ahmed M. Gemeay

doi:10.3934/mbe.2023156

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

2023, Volume 20, Issue 2: 3324-3341. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2023156

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Influence of COVID-19 vaccination on the dynamics of new infected cases in the world

1.
Department of Basic Sciences, College of Science and Theoretical Studies, Saudi Electronic University, Dammam 32256, Saudi Arabia
2.
National Higher School of Mathematics Genius and Modelization, National University of Sciences, Technologies, Engineering and Mathematics, Abomey, Benin Republic
3.
University of Abomey-Calavi/International Chair in Mathematical Physics and Applications (ICMPA: UNESCO-Chair), 072 BP 50 Cotonou, Rep. Benin
4.
Department of Mathematics and Sciences, College of Arts and Applied Sciences, Dhofar University, Salalah, Oman
5.
Mathematics Department, College of Science, Jouf University, P.O. Box 2014, Sakaka, Saudi Arabia
6.
Basic and Applied Science Institute, Arab Academy for Science, Technology and Maritime Transport (AASTMT), Alexandria, Egypt
7.
Department of Accounting, College of Business Administration in Hawtat Bani Tamim, Prince Sattam Abdulaziz University, Saudi Arabia
8.
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Helwan University, Cairo, Egypt
9.
Department of Mathematical Sciences, College of Science, Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University, P.O. Box 84428, Riyadh 11671, Saudi Arabia
10.
Department of Mathematics, Al-Qunfudah University College, Umm Al-Qura University, Mecca, Saudi Arabia
11.
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Tanta University, Tanta 31527, Egypt

Academic Editor: Víctor Leiva

Received: 16 August 2022 Revised: 23 November 2022 Accepted: 24 November 2022 Published: 05 December 2022

The initial COVID-19 vaccinations were created and distributed to the general population in 2020 thanks to emergency authorization and conditional approval. Consequently, numerous countries followed the process that is currently a global campaign. Taking into account the fact that people are being vaccinated, there are concerns about the effectiveness of that medical solution. Actually, this study is the first one focusing on how the number of vaccinated people might influence the spread of the pandemic in the world. From the Global Change Data Lab "Our World in Data", we were able to get data sets about the number of new cases and vaccinated people. This study is a longitudinal one from 14/12/2020 to 21/03/2021. In addition, we computed Generalized log-Linear Model on count time series (Negative Binomial distribution due to over dispersion in data) and implemented validation tests to confirm the robustness of our results. The findings revealed that when the number of vaccinated people increases by one new vaccination on a given day, the number of new cases decreases significantly two days after by one. The influence is not notable on the same day of vaccination. Authorities should increase the vaccination campaign to control well the pandemic. That solution has effectively started to reduce the spread of COVID-19 in the world.
- count data,
- COVID-19,
- generalized time series,
- infectious disease,
- vaccine,
- statistical modeling
Citation: Mustafa Kamal, Mintodê Nicodème Atchadé, Yves Morel Sokadjo, Sabir Ali Siddiqui, Fathy H. Riad, M. M. Abd El-Raouf, Ramy Aldallal, Eslam Hussam, Huda M. Alshanbari, Hassan Alsuhabi, Ahmed M. Gemeay. Influence of COVID-19 vaccination on the dynamics of new infected cases in the world[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2023, 20(2): 3324-3341. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2023156

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Abstract

The initial COVID-19 vaccinations were created and distributed to the general population in 2020 thanks to emergency authorization and conditional approval. Consequently, numerous countries followed the process that is currently a global campaign. Taking into account the fact that people are being vaccinated, there are concerns about the effectiveness of that medical solution. Actually, this study is the first one focusing on how the number of vaccinated people might influence the spread of the pandemic in the world. From the Global Change Data Lab "Our World in Data", we were able to get data sets about the number of new cases and vaccinated people. This study is a longitudinal one from 14/12/2020 to 21/03/2021. In addition, we computed Generalized log-Linear Model on count time series (Negative Binomial distribution due to over dispersion in data) and implemented validation tests to confirm the robustness of our results. The findings revealed that when the number of vaccinated people increases by one new vaccination on a given day, the number of new cases decreases significantly two days after by one. The influence is not notable on the same day of vaccination. Authorities should increase the vaccination campaign to control well the pandemic. That solution has effectively started to reduce the spread of COVID-19 in the world.

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