Modelling and stability analysis of ASFV with swill and the virus in the environment

Haitao Song; Lirong Guo; Zhen Jin; Shengqiang Liu; Haitao Song; Lirong Guo; Zhen Jin; Shengqiang Liu

doi:10.3934/mbe.2022608

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

2022, Volume 19, Issue 12: 13028-13049. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2022608

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Modelling and stability analysis of ASFV with swill and the virus in the environment

1.
Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China
2.
Shanxi Key Laboratory of Mathematical Techniques and Big Data Analysis, on disease Control and Prevention, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China
3.
School of Mathematical Sciences, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China
4.
School of Mathematical Sciences, Tiangong University, Tianjin 300387, China

Academic Editor: Sanling Yuan

Received: 17 June 2022 Revised: 22 August 2022 Accepted: 29 August 2022 Published: 05 September 2022

African swine fever (ASF) is an acute, hemorrhagic and severe infectious disease caused by the African swine fever virus (ASFV), and leads to a serious threat to the pig industry in China. Yet the impact of the virus in the environment and contaminated swill on the ASFV transmission is unclear in China. Then we build the ASFV transmission model with the virus in the environment and swill. We compute the basic reproduction number, and prove that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when $ R_0 < 1 $ and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when $ R_0 > 1 $. Using the public information, parameter values are evaluated. PRCCs and eFAST sensitivity analysis reveal that the release rate of ASFV from asymptomatic and symptomatic infectious pigs and the proportion of pig products from infectious pigs to swill have a significant impact on the ASFV transmission. Our findings suggest that the virus in the environment and contaminated swill contribute to the ASFV transmission. Our results may help animal health to prevent and control the ASFV transmission.
- African swine fever,
- mathematical model,
- swill,
- sensitivity analysis,
- global stability
Citation: Haitao Song, Lirong Guo, Zhen Jin, Shengqiang Liu. Modelling and stability analysis of ASFV with swill and the virus in the environment[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2022, 19(12): 13028-13049. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2022608

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Abstract

African swine fever (ASF) is an acute, hemorrhagic and severe infectious disease caused by the African swine fever virus (ASFV), and leads to a serious threat to the pig industry in China. Yet the impact of the virus in the environment and contaminated swill on the ASFV transmission is unclear in China. Then we build the ASFV transmission model with the virus in the environment and swill. We compute the basic reproduction number, and prove that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when $ R_0 < 1 $ and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when $ R_0 > 1 $. Using the public information, parameter values are evaluated. PRCCs and eFAST sensitivity analysis reveal that the release rate of ASFV from asymptomatic and symptomatic infectious pigs and the proportion of pig products from infectious pigs to swill have a significant impact on the ASFV transmission. Our findings suggest that the virus in the environment and contaminated swill contribute to the ASFV transmission. Our results may help animal health to prevent and control the ASFV transmission.

References

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