Modeling transmission dynamics of measles in Nepal and its control with monitored vaccination program

Anjana Pokharel; Khagendra Adhikari; Ramesh Gautam; Kedar Nath Uprety; Naveen K. Vaidya; Anjana Pokharel; Khagendra Adhikari; Ramesh Gautam; Kedar Nath Uprety; Naveen K. Vaidya

doi:10.3934/mbe.2022397

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

2022, Volume 19, Issue 8: 8554-8579. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2022397

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Research article

Modeling transmission dynamics of measles in Nepal and its control with monitored vaccination program

1.
Padma Kanya Multiple Campus, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal
2.
Amrit Campus, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal
3.
Ratna Rajya Laxmi Campus, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal
4.
Central Department of Mathematics, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal
5.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, USA
6.
Computational Science Research Center, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, USA
7.
Viral Information Institute, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, USA

Received: 24 February 2022 Revised: 22 April 2022 Accepted: 24 May 2022 Published: 10 June 2022

Measles is one of the highly contagious human viral diseases. Despite the availability of vaccines, measles outbreak frequently occurs in many places, including Nepal, partly due to the lack of compliance with vaccination. In this study, we develop a novel transmission dynamics model to evaluate the effects of monitored vaccination programs to control and eliminate measles. We use our model, parameterized with the data from the measles outbreak in Nepal, to calculate the vaccinated reproduction number, $ R_v $, of measles in Nepal. We perform model analyses to establish the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium point for $ R_v < 1 $ and the uniform persistence of the disease for $ R_v > 1 $. Moreover, we perform model simulations to identify monitored vaccination strategies for the successful control of measles in Nepal. Our model predicts that the monitored vaccination programs can help control the potential resurgence of the disease.
- mathematical model,
- measles,
- Nepal,
- stability and persistence analysis,
- vaccination
Citation: Anjana Pokharel, Khagendra Adhikari, Ramesh Gautam, Kedar Nath Uprety, Naveen K. Vaidya. Modeling transmission dynamics of measles in Nepal and its control with monitored vaccination program[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2022, 19(8): 8554-8579. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2022397

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Abstract

Measles is one of the highly contagious human viral diseases. Despite the availability of vaccines, measles outbreak frequently occurs in many places, including Nepal, partly due to the lack of compliance with vaccination. In this study, we develop a novel transmission dynamics model to evaluate the effects of monitored vaccination programs to control and eliminate measles. We use our model, parameterized with the data from the measles outbreak in Nepal, to calculate the vaccinated reproduction number, $ R_v $, of measles in Nepal. We perform model analyses to establish the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium point for $ R_v < 1 $ and the uniform persistence of the disease for $ R_v > 1 $. Moreover, we perform model simulations to identify monitored vaccination strategies for the successful control of measles in Nepal. Our model predicts that the monitored vaccination programs can help control the potential resurgence of the disease.

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