Citation: Kai Wang, Zhidong Teng, Xueliang Zhang. Dynamical behaviors of an Echinococcosis epidemic model with distributed delays[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2017, 14(5&6): 1425-1445. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2017074
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Echinococcosis, which is often referred to as a hydatid disease, is a parasitic disease that affects both humans and other mammals, such as sheep, dogs, rodents and horses [3]. There are three different forms of Echinococcosis found in humans, each of which is caused by the larval stages of different species of the tapeworm of genus Echinococcus. The first of the three and also the most common form found in humans is cystic Echinococcosis, which is caused by Echinococcus granulosus. The second is alveolar Echinococcosis, which is caused by Echinococcus multilocularis and the third is polycystic Echinococcosis, which is caused by Echinococcus vogeli and very rarely, Echinococcus oligarthus. Alveolar and polycystic Echinococcosis are rarely diagnosed in humans and are not as widespread as cystic Echinococcosis. Thus, we focus on cystic Echinococcosis in this paper.
Echinococcus granulosus is an extremely small tapeworm, only 4-6 mm in length in its adult stage. This stage occurs in carnivore "definitive hosts, " generally dogs, wolves, coyotes, or wild dogs [17]. When mature, the adult tapeworm produces eggs that are passed in feces of the infected carnivore. The eggs contaminate foliage or vegetation which may be eaten by grazing animals, the "intermediate hosts, " generally ruminants such as sheep, goats, or cattle, although an extremely wide range of potential intermediate hosts exists. After the intermediate host ingests tapeworm eggs, the eggs hatch into tiny embryos in the small intestine of that host. These small mobile forms penetrate the intestinal mucosa, enter the circulatory tract, and are then transported via the bloodstream to various filtering organs in that host. The embryo lodges in those organs and there develops into a larval cystic form termed the "hydatid cyst". Eventually a thick wall develops around the hydatid cyst, and numerous tiny tapeworm heads are produced via asexual division within "brood capsules" from the germinal lining of each hydatid cyst. If parts of the viscera containing hydatid cysts are eaten by suitable carnivore hosts, then the tiny protoscolices are liberated from the brood capsules, evaginate their head region with its suckers and hooks, and move actively to eventually attach to the intestinal mucosa. There they grow within approximately 40 days to the adult stage to the tapeworm, which is then capable of producing eggs. Humans act as intermediate hosts for Echinococcus granulosus, and are infected when they ingest tapeworm eggs from the definitive host. The eggs may be eaten in foods such as vegetables, fruits or herbs, or drunk in contaminated water. The life cycle of Echinococcus granulosus is shown in Figure 1.
China is one of the countries in the world which have the most serious Echinococcosis. A national survey of important parasitic diseases in 2004 showed that the average prevalence of Echinococcosis in epidemic areas was about 1.08%. About 380000 people in the country are infected. During 2004-2008, China's 27 provinces and municipalities had Echinococcosis case reports, and 98.2% of reported cases distributed in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, Tibet, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia. At least 66 million people in China are threatened by Echinococcosis [20].
Echinococcosis is widely distributed and highly endemic in Xinjiang, China. Between 2004 and 2011, a total of 6086 human Echinococcosis cases were reported in Xinjiang, China (see Figure 2 [22]).
The average infection rates in sheep, cattle and dogs were 54.20%, 15.21% and 24.52%, respectively [9]. During 2008-2009, Xinjiang, China supervising agency for animal epidemic prevention examined Echinococcosis infection of liver and lung samples of cattle and sheep in fix point slaughter houses (see Table 2 [11]). Meanwhile, Echinococcus granulosus infection for dogs was also examined in various parts of Xinjiang, China (see Table 2 [23]).
Region | Infection rate | ||
Sheep | Cattle | ||
Northern Xinjiang | Ili | 70% | 41% |
Tacheng | 63% | 25% | |
Altay | 65.8% | 27% | |
Changji | 50.78% | 9.23% | |
Southern Xinjiang | Kashgar | 47% | - |
Hotan | 25% | 18% | |
Kezilesu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture | 38% | 6.2% | |
Aksu | 50.3% | 6.29% | |
Bayingolin Mongolia Autonomous Prefecture | 60.3% | 12.3% | |
Eastern Xinjiang | Hami | 42% | 17% |
Turpan | 36% | 16.68% |
Region | Infection rate | |
Northern Xinjiang | Ili | 70% |
Tacheng | 63% | |
Altay | 65.8% | |
Changji | 50.78% | |
Southern Xinjiang | Kashgar | 47% |
Hotan | 25% | |
Kezilesu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture | 38% | |
Aksu | 50.3% | |
Bayingolin Mongolia Autonomous Prefecture | 60.3% | |
Eastern Xinjiang | Hami | 42% |
Turpan | 36% |
Mathematical modeling is an important method of studying the spread of infectious disease qualitatively and quantitatively. Models can be used to understand how an infectious disease spreads in the real world, and how various complexities affect the dynamics. There have been some modeling studies on different aspects of Echinococcosis, and most of them are statistical models. A base-line survey was carried out on the transmission dynamics of Echinococcus granulosus, Taenia hydatigena and Taenia ovis in sheep in Uruguay by Cabrera et al. in [4]. The Echinococcus granulosus was only relative stable and the basic reproduction ratio was estimated about 1.2 in an endemic steady state. The effects of the different transmission levels of the parasites on potential control strategies were discussed. Torgerson et al. [16] examined the abundance and prevalence of infection of Echinococcus granulosus in cattle and sheep in Kazakhstan. Maximum likelihood techniques were used to define the parameters and their confidence limits in the model and the negative binomial distribution was used to define the error variance in the observed data. Lahmar et al. [8] examined the abundance and prevalence of infection of Echinococcus granulosus in camels in Tunisia.
Recently, dynamic models of Echinococcosis have been discussed in [19,21]. The work [19] proposed a deterministic model to study the transmission dynamics of Echinococcosis in Xinjiang, China. The results demonstrated that the dynamics of the model were completely determined by the basic reproductive number
The article is organized as follows. The model is presented in Section 2. The basic properties on the positivity and boundedness of solutions, computation of the basic reproduction number and the existence of endemic equilibrium for the model are discussed in Section 3. In Section 4, we establish the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium for the model. In Section 5, we will apply the theory of permanence for infinite-dimensional systems to obtain the permanence of the model. The global stability theorem of the endemic equilibrium is stated and proved in Section 6. In Section 7, we estimate the parameters of the model and study the transmission trend of the disease in Xinjiang, China. A brief discussion is given in Section 8.
Based on the transmission mechanism of Echinococcosis, we consider dogs being the definitive hosts, livestock being the intermediate hosts, humans represented as an accidental intermediate hosts respectively.
The dogs population is subdivided into two classes: the susceptible population and the infected population denoted by
To model the Echinococcosis infection delay from infected livestock to susceptible dogs, we let
β1SD(t)∫h10f1(τ)IL(t−τ)dτ. |
To model the Echinococcosis infection delay from infected dogs to susceptible livestock, we let
β2SL(t)∫h20f2(τ)ID(t−τ)dτ. |
Humans act as an accidental intermediate host for Echinococcosis. Thus, similarly to the infection of livestock, the number of infected human at time
β3SH(t)∫h20f3(τ)ID(t−τ)dτ, |
where
Based on the above discussions, a dynamical model of Echinococcosis with distributed time delays can be written as:
{dSD(t)dt=A1−β1SD(t)∫h10f1(τ)IL(t−τ)dτ−d1SD(t)+σID(t),dID(t)dt=β1SD(t)∫h10f1(τ)IL(t−τ)dτ−(d1+σ)ID(t),dSL(t)dt=A2−β2SL(t)∫h20f2(τ)ID(t−τ)dτ−d2SL(t),dIL(t)dt=β2SL(t)∫h20f2(τ)ID(t−τ)dτ−d2IL(t),dSH(t)dt=A3−β3SH(t)∫h20f3(τ)ID(t−τ)dτ−d3SH(t)+γIH(t),dEH(t)dt=β3SH(t)∫h20f3(τ)ID(t−τ)dτ−(d3+ω)EH(t),dIH(t)dt=ωEH(t)−(d3+μ+γ)IH(t). | (1) |
All parameters in model (1) are assumed to be positive constants. For the dog population,
Motivated by biological background of model (1), the initial conditions for model (1) are given as follows
{SD(θ)=ϕ1(θ), ID(θ)=ϕ2(θ), SL(θ)=ϕ3(θ), IL(θ)=ϕ4(θ),SH(θ)=ϕ5(θ), EH(θ)=ϕ6(θ), IH(θ)=ϕ7(θ), | (2) |
where
For any
Γε={(SD,ID,SL,IL,SH,EH,IH)∈R7+, SD+ID≤A1d1+ε,SL+IL≤A2d2+ε,SH+EH+IH≤A3d3+ε}. |
Firstly, on the positivity and ultimate boundedness of solutions for model (1), we have the following result.
Lemma 3.1. (
(
The proof of Lemma 3.1 is simple, we hence omit it here.
Remark 3.2. According to Lemma 3.1, all feasible solutions of model (1) enter or remain in the region
Simple algebraic calculation shows that model (1) always has a disease-free equilibrium
S0D=A1d1,S0L=A2d2,S0H=A3d3. |
Following the idea in [24,18], we can introduce the basic reproduction number for model (1) as follows
R0=√β1β2A1A2d1d22(d1+σ). |
Remark 3.3. To better understand the basic reproduction number, we rewrite it as
R0=√A2d2⋅1d1+σ⋅β2⋅A1d1⋅1d2⋅β1. |
The biological meaning of
It can be proved that if
S∗D=d2(d1+σ)(A1β2+d1d2)β2d1(β1A2+d1d2+d2σ),I∗D=β1β2A1A2−d1d22(d1+σ)d1β2(β1A2+d1d2+d2σ)=d22(d1+σ)β2(β1A2+d1d2+d2σ)(R20−1),S∗L=d1(β1A2+d1d2+d2σ)β1(A1β2+d1d2),I∗L=β1β2A1A2−d1d22(d1+σ)d2β1(A1β2+d1d2)=d1d2(d1+σ)β1(A1β2+d1d2)(R20−1),S∗H=A3(d3+ω)(d3+μ+γ)(β3I∗D+d3)(d3+ω)(d3+μ+γ)−γωβ3I∗D,E∗H=β3S∗HI∗D(d3+ω),I∗H=ωβ3S∗HI∗D(d3+ω)(d3+μ+γ). |
Therefore, we finally have the following theorem.
Theorem 3.4. (
(
Regarding the stability of the disease-free equilibrium
Theorem 4.1. If
Proof. Notice that the last three equations are independent of the first four equations, we start by considering the first four equations,
{dSD(t)dt=A1−β1SD(t)∫h10f1(τ)IL(t−τ)dτ−d1SD(t)+σID(t),dID(t)dt=β1SD(t)∫h10f1(τ)IL(t−τ)dτ−(d1+σ)ID(t),dSL(t)dt=A2−β2SL(t)∫h20f2(τ)ID(t−τ)dτ−d2SL(t),dIL(t)dt=β2SL(t)∫h20f2(τ)ID(t−τ)dτ−d2IL(t). | (3) |
Since
d22(d1+σ)β2A2(R20−1)=β1A1d1−d22(d1+σ)β2A2<0. |
Hence, there is a small enough constant
β1(A1+d1ε)d1−d22(d1+σ)β2(A2+d2ε)<0. |
Let
SD(t)≤A1d1+ε, SL(t)≤A2d2+εfor allt≥0. |
Consider the following Lyapunov functional
V(t)=ID(t)+β1∫h10f1(τ)∫tt−τSD(u+τ)IL(u)dudτ+d2(d1+σ)β2(A2+d2ε)(IL(t)+β2∫h20f2(τ)∫tt−τSL(u+τ)ID(u)dudτ), |
calculating the derivative of
˙V(t)=β1SD(t)∫h10f1(τ)IL(t−τ)dτ−(d1+σ)ID(t)+β1IL(t)∫h10f1(τ)SD(t+τ)dτ−β1SD(t)∫h10f1(τ)IL(t−τ)dτ+d2(d1+σ)β2(A2+d2ε)(β2SL(t)∫h20f2(τ)ID(t−τ)dτ−d2IL(t)+β2ID(t)∫h20f2(τ)SL(t+τ)dτ−β2SL(t)∫h10f1(τ)ID(t−τ)dτ)=−(d1+σ)ID(t)+β1IL(t)∫h10f1(τ)SD(t+τ)dτ+d2(d1+σ)β2(A2+d2ε)(−d2IL(t)+β2ID(t)∫h20f2(τ)SL(t+τ)dτ)≤−(d1+σ)ID(t)+β1(A1d1+ε)IL(t)+d2(d1+σ)β2(A2+d2ε)(−d2IL(t)+β2(A2d2+ε)ID(t))=(β1(A1+d1ε)d1−d22(d1+σ)β2(A2+d2ε))IL(t)≤0. |
Let
Since
dSD(t)dt=A1−d1SD(t)+σID(t)dID(t)dt=−(d1+σ)ID(t),dSL(t)dt=A2−d2SL(t). |
Solving second equation, we have
ID(t)=ID(0)exp(−(d1+σ)t)for allt∈R. |
Hence,
Since
SD(t)=A1d1+SD(0)exp(−d1t)for allt∈R, |
then we also have
Next, we consider the last three equations
{dSH(t)dt=A3−β3SH(t)∫h20f3(τ)ID(t−τ)dτ−d3SH(t)+γIH(t),dEH(t)dt=β3SH(t)∫h20f3(τ)ID(t−τ)dτ−(d3+ω)EH(t),dIH(t)dt=ωEH(t)−(d3+μ+γ)IH(t). | (4) |
Since
In this section, we will apply the theory of persistence for infinite-dimensional dynamical system from [7] to obtain the permanence of model (1).
Let
T(t):X0→X0,T(t):X0→X0. |
We denote
˜A0=⋃{ω(x):x∈A0}. |
Furthermore, the definitions of the compactness, point dissipativity and the uniform persistence for
Now, we state the following lemma, which can be found in ([7], Theorem 2.4).
Lemma 5.1. Assume that
(
(
(
Then
Ws(Mi)∩X0=∅,i=1,2,⋯,k, |
where
In the following, as an application of this lemma, we establish the result on the permanence of model (1).
Theorem 5.2. If
Proof. We firstly prove the permanence of system (3). To apply Lemma 5.1, we choose space
X0={(ϕ1,ϕ2,ϕ3,ϕ4)∈X:ϕ2(θ∗)>0 or ϕ4(θ∗)>0 for some θ∗∈[−h,0]},X0={(ϕ1,ϕ2,ϕ3,ϕ4)∈X:ϕ2(θ)≡0, ϕ4(θ)≡0 for all θ∈[−h,0]}. |
Denote
T(t)ϕ=xt(ϕ),ϕ∈X,t≥0, |
where
Now, we verify that all the conditions of Lemma 5.1 are satisfied.
Firstly, we show that
SD(t,ϕ)≥SD(0,ϕ)exp(−β1∫t0∫h10f1(τ)IL(s−τ,ϕ)dτds−d1t),ID(t,ϕ)=e−(d1+σ)t{ID(0,ϕ)+∫t0β1SD(ρ,ϕ)∫h10f1(τ)IL(ρ−τ,ϕ)dτe(d1+σ)ρdρ},SL(t,ϕ)≥SL(0,ϕ)exp(−β2∫t0∫h20f2(τ)ID(s−τ,ϕ)dτds−d2t),IL(t,ϕ)=e−d2t{IL(0,ϕ)+∫t0β2SL(ρ,ϕ)∫h20f2(τ)ID(ρ−τ,ϕ)dτed2ρdρ} | (5) |
for all
∫h20f2(τ)ID(s−τ,ϕ)dτ=0,∫h10f1(τ)IL(s−τ,ϕ)dτ=0. |
Hence, we have
Let
ID(t,ϕ)≡0,IL(t,ϕ)≡0for allt≥0. |
From this, we obtain that
Denote by
Ω=⋃{ω(ϕ):ϕ∈X0},E′0=(A1d1,0,A2d2,0). |
Restricting system (3) to
{dSD(t)dt=A1−d1SD(t)dSL(t)dt=A2−d2SL(t). | (6) |
It is easy to verify that system (6) has a unique equilibrium
Ws(E′0)∩X0=∅, | (7) |
where
limt→∞SD(t)=A1d1, limt→∞ID(t)=0, limt→∞SL(t)=A2d2, limt→∞IL(t)=0. | (8) |
Since
Rϵ0≜√β1β2(A1−d1ϵ)(A2−d2ϵ)d1d22(d1+σ)>1. |
For this
SD(t)>A1d1−ϵ,SL(t)>A2d2−ϵfor allt≥t1. |
Hence, by system (3), we have
dID(t)dt≥β1(A1d1−ϵ)∫h10f1(τ)IL(t−τ)dτ−(d1+σ)ID(t),dIL(t)dt≥β2(A2d2−ϵ)∫h20f2(τ)ID(t−τ)dτ−d2IL(t) |
for all
dU(t)dt=β1(A1d1−ϵ)∫h10f1(τ)V(t−τ)dτ−(d1+σ)U(t),dV(t)dt=β2(A2d2−ϵ)∫h20f2(τ)U(t−τ)dτ−d2V(t). | (9) |
Let
ID(t)≥U(t),IL(t)≥V(t)for allt≥t1. |
From (8), we further have
limt→∞U(t)=0,limt→∞V(t)=0. | (10) |
Consider the following auxiliary function
W(t)=W1(t)+d1+σβ2(A2d2−ϵ)W2(t), |
where
W1(t)=U(t)+β1(A1d1−ϵ)∫h10f1(τ)∫tt−τV(ρ)dρdτ |
and
W2(t)=V(t)+β2(A2d2−ϵ)∫h20f2(τ)∫tt−τU(ρ)dρdτ. |
Then, from (10) we have
limt→∞W(t)=0. |
Calculating the derivative of
˙W(t)=˙W1(t)+d1+σβ2(A2d2−ϵ)˙W2(t)=β1(A1d1−ϵ)[1−d1d22(d1+σ)β1β2(A1−d1ϵ)(A2−d2ϵ)]V(t)=β1(A1d1−ϵ)(1−1(Rϵ0)2)V(t)>0. |
Therefore,
Next, we prove that system (4) is also permanent. From system (4), we have
dSH(t)dt≥A3−(β3(η−ε)+d3)SH,for all t≥T+h, |
it follows that
lim inft→∞SH(t)≥A3β3(η−ε)+d3. |
Using a similar argument as above, we can obtain that
lim inft→∞EH(t)≥β3A3(η−ε)(d3+ω)(β3(η−ε)+d3) |
and
lim inft→∞SH(t)≥β3ωA3(η−ε)(d3+ω)(β3(η−ε)+d3)(d3+μ+γ). |
This implies that model (1) is permanent.
In this section, we will obtain the stability of endemic equilibrium of model (1). We will use the theory of cooperative systems to prove the global stability of system.
Consider the functional differential equations
dx(t)dt=f(xt) | (11) |
where
Lemma 6.1. Let
(1) for any
(2)
(3)
(a) If
(b) If
(
(
We further have the following result on the stability of the endemic equilibrium.
Theorem 6.2. If
Proof. We still start by considering system (3). It is easily proved that
{dID(t)dt=β1(A1d1−ID(t))∫h10f1(τ)IL(t−τ)dτ−(d1+σ)ID(t),dIL(t)dt=β2(A2d2−IL(t))∫h20f2(τ)ID(t−τ)dτ−d2IL(t). | (12) |
By Lemma 3.1, the dynamics of system (12) can be focused on the following restricted region
Ω={(ID,IL):0≤ID≤A1d1, 0≤IL≤A2d2}. |
We will use Lemma 6.1 to prove the global stability of system (12). We only need to verify all assumptions in Lemma 6.1 for system (12). Consider the following equation
dx(t)dt=f(xt) |
where
f(ϕ)=(f1(ϕ)f2(ϕ))=(β1(A1d1−ϕ1(0))∫tt−h1f1(t−s)ϕ2(s)ds−(d1+σ)ϕ1(0)β2(A2d2−ϕ2(0))∫tt−h1f2(t−s)ϕ1(s)ds−d2ϕ2(0)). |
Let
F(x)=(F1(x1,x2)F2(x1,x2))=(β1(A1d1−x1)x2−(d1+σ)x1β2(A2d2−x2)x1−d2x2). |
For any
df1(ψ)ϕ=−β1ϕ1(0)∫tt−h1f1(t−s)ψ2(s)ds+β1(A1d1−ψ1(0))∫tt−h1f1(t−s)ϕ2(s)ds−(d1+σ)ϕ1(0),df2(ψ)ϕ=−β2ϕ2(0)∫tt−h2f2(t−s)ψ1(s)ds+β2(A2d2−ψ2(0))∫tt−h2f2(t−s)ϕ1(s)ds−d2ϕ2(0). |
Hence, for any
df1(ψ)ϕ=β1(A1d1−ψ1(0))∫tt−h1f1(t−s)ϕ2(s)ds>0 |
and
df2(ψ)ϕ=β2(A2d2−ψ2(0))∫tt−h2f2(t−s)ϕ1(s)ds>0, |
which imply that
f1(ϕ)=β1A1d1∫tt−h1f1(t−s)ϕ2(s)ds≥0,f2(ϕ)=β2A2d2∫tt−h1f2(t−s)ϕ1(s)ds≥0. |
It is easy to see from the expression of
f1(αϕ)=β1(A1d1−αϕ1(0))∫tt−h1f1(t−s)αϕ2(s)ds−(d1+σ)αϕ1(0)≥β1(A1d1−ϕ1(0))∫tt−h1f1(t−s)αϕ2(s)ds−(d1+σ)αϕ1(0)=αf1(ϕ). |
Using the same argument, we can show that
F1(αx)=β1(A1d1−αx1)αx2−(d1+σ)αx1>α[β1(A1d1−x1)x2−(d1+σ)x1]=αF1(x) |
and
F2(αx)=β2(A2d2−αx2)αx1−d2αx2>α[β2(A2d2−x2)x1−d2x2]=αF2(x). |
This shows that
df1(ˆ0)ϕ=β1A1d1∫tt−h1f1(t−s)ϕ2(s)ds−(d1+σ)ϕ1(0),df2(ˆ0)ϕ=β2A2d2∫tt−h2f2(t−s)ϕ1(s)ds−d2ϕ2(0), |
it is easy to see that
DF(x)=(−(d1+σ)−β1A1d1x2β1(A1d1−x1)β2(A2d2−x2)−d2−β2A2d2x1). |
Clearly,
DF(0)=(−(d1+σ)β1A1d1β2A2d2−d2), |
the characteristic equation of
det(λI−DF(0))=λ2+a1λ+a0=0, |
where
a1=d1+d2+σ,a0=d2(d1+σ)−β1β2A1A2d1d2=d2(d1+σ)(1−R20). |
When
Next, when
{dSH(t)dt=A3−β3SHI∗D−d3SH+γIH,dEH(t)dt=β3SHI∗D−(d3+ω)EH,dIH(t)dt=ωEH−(d3+μ+γ)IH. | (13) |
Let
{dU(t)dt=−(β3I∗D+d3)U(t)+γV(t),dW(t)dt=β3I∗DU(t)−(d3+ω)W(t),dV(t)dt=ωW(t)−(d3+μ+γ)V(t). | (14) |
The Jacobian matrix of equation (14) at
J|(0,0,0)=(−β3I∗D−d30γβ3I∗D−(d3+ω)00ω−(d3+μ+γ)). |
The characteristic equation is
ϕ(λ)=λ3+a2λ2+a1λ+a0=0, |
where
a2=3d3+β3I∗D+ω+μ+γ,a1=(β3I∗D+d3)(d3+ω)+(β3I∗D+d3)(d3+μ+γ)+(d3+ω)(d3+μ+γ),a0=(β3I∗D+d3)(d3+ω)(d3+μ+γ)−β3I∗Dωγ. |
It is clear that
a1a2−a0=6d3ωγ+2ωμγ+4d3μγ+6d3ωμ+6β3I∗Dd3ω+6β3I∗Dd3μ+6β3I∗Dd3γ+2β3I∗Dωμ+2β3I∗Dωγ+2β3I∗Dμγ+2β23I∗D2d3+8β3I∗Dd23+β23I∗D2ω+β3I∗Dω2+β23I∗D2μ+β3I∗Dμ2+β23I∗D2γ+β3I∗Dγ2+8d33+8d23ω+8d23μ+8d23γ+2d3ω2+2d3μ2+2d3γ2+ω2μ+ωμ2+ω2γ+ωγ2>0. |
Hence, by Routh-Hurwitz criteria, all roots of
In this section, we shall estimate the parameters of model (1) and study the transmission trend of the disease in Xinjiang, China. From Xinjiang Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Xinjiang CDC) [22], we have obtained the monthly numbers of reported Echinococcosis cases from January 2004 to December 2011 (see Figure 2).
As an illustration, we take the parameters in Table 3 and give a few necessary comments:
Parameters | Value | Comments | Source |
recruitment rate for dog | [25] | ||
0.0067 | dog natural mortality rate | [1] | |
livestock to dog transmission rate | fitting | ||
1/6 | recovery rate from infected to non-infected dogs | [13] | |
recruitment rate for livestock | [10] | ||
0.0275 | livestock mortality rate | assumption | |
parasite egg-to-livestock transmission rate | fitting | ||
1/3 | survival time of larval cysts into the infection offal | [6] | |
1.17 | average life expectancy for Echinococcus eggs | [17] | |
human annual birth population | [2] | ||
0.0012 | human natural mortality rate | [14] | |
human incubation period | [13] | ||
0.0793% | human disease-related death rate | [5] | |
0.0625 | treatment/recovery rate | assumption | |
parasite egg-to-human transmission rate | fitting |
(a) The number of dogs in Xinjiang, China was estimated to be 2 millions in 2004 [25]. The average life expectancy of dogs was 12.5 years [1]. Thus,
(b) According to China Statistical Yearbook [10], the recruitment rate
(c) The average survival time of larval cysts into the infection offal thrown in the environment is assumed to be 7-10 days [6]. We select
(d) The average life expectancy of people in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China was 71.12 years in 2005 [14]. We take it as the current average life expectancy. Thus,
(e) The parameters
The numerical simulation of the model on the number of human Echinococcosis cases is shown in Figure 3. We can predict the general tendency of the epidemic in a long term according to the current situation, which is presented in Figure 4. It shows that the number of human Echinococcosis cases will increase steadily in the next 6 or 7 years, then reach the peak (about 120) in 2017 and begin a slow decline, and finally become stable.
Moreover, with these parameter values, we can roughly estimate the basic reproduction number
Next, to find better control strategies for Echinococcosis infection, we perform some sensitivity analysis to determine the influence of parameters
In this paper, in order to understand how Echinococcosis spreads in the real world and forecast the disease trends, we propose a novel spreading model for Echinococcosis with distributed time delays. We calculated the basic reproduction number
With suitable parameter values, we estimated the basic reproduction number to be
This research was supported by the The Natural Science Foundation of Xinjiang [2015211C031].
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Region | Infection rate | ||
Sheep | Cattle | ||
Northern Xinjiang | Ili | 70% | 41% |
Tacheng | 63% | 25% | |
Altay | 65.8% | 27% | |
Changji | 50.78% | 9.23% | |
Southern Xinjiang | Kashgar | 47% | - |
Hotan | 25% | 18% | |
Kezilesu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture | 38% | 6.2% | |
Aksu | 50.3% | 6.29% | |
Bayingolin Mongolia Autonomous Prefecture | 60.3% | 12.3% | |
Eastern Xinjiang | Hami | 42% | 17% |
Turpan | 36% | 16.68% |
Region | Infection rate | |
Northern Xinjiang | Ili | 70% |
Tacheng | 63% | |
Altay | 65.8% | |
Changji | 50.78% | |
Southern Xinjiang | Kashgar | 47% |
Hotan | 25% | |
Kezilesu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture | 38% | |
Aksu | 50.3% | |
Bayingolin Mongolia Autonomous Prefecture | 60.3% | |
Eastern Xinjiang | Hami | 42% |
Turpan | 36% |
Parameters | Value | Comments | Source |
recruitment rate for dog | [25] | ||
0.0067 | dog natural mortality rate | [1] | |
livestock to dog transmission rate | fitting | ||
1/6 | recovery rate from infected to non-infected dogs | [13] | |
recruitment rate for livestock | [10] | ||
0.0275 | livestock mortality rate | assumption | |
parasite egg-to-livestock transmission rate | fitting | ||
1/3 | survival time of larval cysts into the infection offal | [6] | |
1.17 | average life expectancy for Echinococcus eggs | [17] | |
human annual birth population | [2] | ||
0.0012 | human natural mortality rate | [14] | |
human incubation period | [13] | ||
0.0793% | human disease-related death rate | [5] | |
0.0625 | treatment/recovery rate | assumption | |
parasite egg-to-human transmission rate | fitting |
Region | Infection rate | ||
Sheep | Cattle | ||
Northern Xinjiang | Ili | 70% | 41% |
Tacheng | 63% | 25% | |
Altay | 65.8% | 27% | |
Changji | 50.78% | 9.23% | |
Southern Xinjiang | Kashgar | 47% | - |
Hotan | 25% | 18% | |
Kezilesu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture | 38% | 6.2% | |
Aksu | 50.3% | 6.29% | |
Bayingolin Mongolia Autonomous Prefecture | 60.3% | 12.3% | |
Eastern Xinjiang | Hami | 42% | 17% |
Turpan | 36% | 16.68% |
Region | Infection rate | |
Northern Xinjiang | Ili | 70% |
Tacheng | 63% | |
Altay | 65.8% | |
Changji | 50.78% | |
Southern Xinjiang | Kashgar | 47% |
Hotan | 25% | |
Kezilesu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture | 38% | |
Aksu | 50.3% | |
Bayingolin Mongolia Autonomous Prefecture | 60.3% | |
Eastern Xinjiang | Hami | 42% |
Turpan | 36% |
Parameters | Value | Comments | Source |
recruitment rate for dog | [25] | ||
0.0067 | dog natural mortality rate | [1] | |
livestock to dog transmission rate | fitting | ||
1/6 | recovery rate from infected to non-infected dogs | [13] | |
recruitment rate for livestock | [10] | ||
0.0275 | livestock mortality rate | assumption | |
parasite egg-to-livestock transmission rate | fitting | ||
1/3 | survival time of larval cysts into the infection offal | [6] | |
1.17 | average life expectancy for Echinococcus eggs | [17] | |
human annual birth population | [2] | ||
0.0012 | human natural mortality rate | [14] | |
human incubation period | [13] | ||
0.0793% | human disease-related death rate | [5] | |
0.0625 | treatment/recovery rate | assumption | |
parasite egg-to-human transmission rate | fitting |