A stochastic epidemic model of COVID-19 disease

Xavier Bardina; Marco Ferrante; Carles Rovira; Xavier Bardina; Marco Ferrante; Carles Rovira

doi:10.3934/math.2020490

AIMS Mathematics

2020, Volume 5, Issue 6: 7661-7677. doi: 10.3934/math.2020490

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Research article

A stochastic epidemic model of COVID-19 disease

1.
Departament de Matemàtiques, Universitat Autonòma de Barcelona, 08193-Bellaterra
2.
Dipartimento di Matematica "Tullio Levi-Civita", Università degli Studi di Padova, Via Trieste 63, 35121-Padova, Italy
3.
Departament de Matemàtiques i Informàtica, Universitat de Barcelona, Gran Via 585, 08007-Barcelona

Received: 15 July 2020 Accepted: 25 August 2020 Published: 26 September 2020
MSC : 92D30, 60J10, 60H10

To model the evolution of diseases with extended latency periods and the presence of asymptomatic patients like COVID-19, we define a simple discrete time stochastic SIR-type epidemic model. We include both latent periods as well as the presence of quarantine areas, to capture the evolutionary dynamics of such diseases.
- COVID-19,
- SIR model,
- reproduction number
Citation: Xavier Bardina, Marco Ferrante, Carles Rovira. A stochastic epidemic model of COVID-19 disease[J]. AIMS Mathematics, 2020, 5(6): 7661-7677. doi: 10.3934/math.2020490

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Abstract

To model the evolution of diseases with extended latency periods and the presence of asymptomatic patients like COVID-19, we define a simple discrete time stochastic SIR-type epidemic model. We include both latent periods as well as the presence of quarantine areas, to capture the evolutionary dynamics of such diseases.

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