Features and evolution of civil aviation CO$ _2 $ emissions based on ADS-B data for the period between 2019–2024

Grégoire Dannet; Olivier Boucher; Nicolas Bellouin; Grégoire Dannet; Olivier Boucher; Nicolas Bellouin

doi:10.3934/mina.2024016

Metascience in Aerospace

2024, Volume 1, Issue 4: 346-370. doi: 10.3934/mina.2024016

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Research article

Features and evolution of civil aviation CO$ _2 $ emissions based on ADS-B data for the period between 2019–2024

1.
Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Sorbonne Université / CNRS, Paris, France
2.
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom

Received: 30 August 2024 Revised: 05 December 2024 Accepted: 09 December 2024 Published: 19 December 2024

Aviation, as a critical component of the global transportation infrastructure, has experienced substantial growth over the past few decades, facilitating the movement of people and goods. However, this sector is also a significant consumer of fossil fuels and contributor to global warming. In this study, we estimated the carbon dioxide (CO$ _2 $) emissions from global aviation for the period between 2019 to June 2024 using Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) data. We estimate that a yearly total of 42 million of flights were responsible for 895 Mt of CO$ _2 $ emissions in 2019. Flight disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic have decreased emissions during the years 2020–2023, but the recovery has been quick: the number of domestic flights in 2023 surpassed its pre-Covid level while international flights were slightly lagging behind. This results in CO$ _2 $ emissions in 2023 that were still 9% below their pre-Covid levels. However, traffic and emissions levels calculated for 2024 indicate a return to pre-Covid levels. Our analysis indicates that North America, Europe, and Asia account for almost 75% of the aviation CO$ _2 $ emissions. Flights shorter than 2600 km are responsible for 50% of the aviation CO$ _2 $ emissions worldwide. Flights longer than this distance account for the other half of emissions, although they represent less than 15% of the total number of flights. The most recent generation of aircraft represented 20% of the fleet at the start of 2024, resulting in an 8% gain in efficiency, equivalent to 144 Mt CO$ _2 $ avoided over the whole period. However, the ongoing growth in traffic delays the fleet renewal and hinders the reduction in emissions. Aviation does not appear to be on track to reach a 55% reduction in emissions by 2030. Additionally, if sustainable aviation fuels are to be used, this will require a substantial increase in biomass or low-carbon electricity use.
- air traffic,
- aviation,
- carbon dioxide emissions,
- Covid-19,
- fleet renewal
Citation: Grégoire Dannet, Olivier Boucher, Nicolas Bellouin. Features and evolution of civil aviation CO$ _2 $ emissions based on ADS-B data for the period between 2019–2024[J]. Metascience in Aerospace, 2024, 1(4): 346-370. doi: 10.3934/mina.2024016

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Abstract

Aviation, as a critical component of the global transportation infrastructure, has experienced substantial growth over the past few decades, facilitating the movement of people and goods. However, this sector is also a significant consumer of fossil fuels and contributor to global warming. In this study, we estimated the carbon dioxide (CO$ _2 $) emissions from global aviation for the period between 2019 to June 2024 using Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) data. We estimate that a yearly total of 42 million of flights were responsible for 895 Mt of CO$ _2 $ emissions in 2019. Flight disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic have decreased emissions during the years 2020–2023, but the recovery has been quick: the number of domestic flights in 2023 surpassed its pre-Covid level while international flights were slightly lagging behind. This results in CO$ _2 $ emissions in 2023 that were still 9% below their pre-Covid levels. However, traffic and emissions levels calculated for 2024 indicate a return to pre-Covid levels. Our analysis indicates that North America, Europe, and Asia account for almost 75% of the aviation CO$ _2 $ emissions. Flights shorter than 2600 km are responsible for 50% of the aviation CO$ _2 $ emissions worldwide. Flights longer than this distance account for the other half of emissions, although they represent less than 15% of the total number of flights. The most recent generation of aircraft represented 20% of the fleet at the start of 2024, resulting in an 8% gain in efficiency, equivalent to 144 Mt CO$ _2 $ avoided over the whole period. However, the ongoing growth in traffic delays the fleet renewal and hinders the reduction in emissions. Aviation does not appear to be on track to reach a 55% reduction in emissions by 2030. Additionally, if sustainable aviation fuels are to be used, this will require a substantial increase in biomass or low-carbon electricity use.

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