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Research article Special Issues

Transmission dynamics and optimal control of a Huanglongbing model with time delay


  • Received: 24 March 2021 Accepted: 26 April 2021 Published: 12 May 2021
  • In this paper, a mathematical model has been formulated for the transmission dynamics of citrus Huanglongbing considering latent period as the time delay factor. Existence of the equilibria and their stability have been studied on the basis of basic reproduction number in two cases τ=0 and τ>0. The results show that stability changes occur through Hopf bifurcation in the delayed system. Optimal control theory is then applied to investigate the optimal strategy for curtailing the spread of the disease using three time-dependent control variables determined from sensitivity analysis. By using Pontryagin's Maximum Principle, we obtain the optimal integrated strategy and prove the uniqueness of optimal control solution. Analytical and numerical findings suggest that it is feasible to implement control techniques while minimizing the cost of implementation of optimal control strategies.

    Citation: Zhenzhen Liao, Shujing Gao, Shuixian Yan, Genjiao Zhou. Transmission dynamics and optimal control of a Huanglongbing model with time delay[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2021, 18(4): 4162-4192. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2021209

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  • In this paper, a mathematical model has been formulated for the transmission dynamics of citrus Huanglongbing considering latent period as the time delay factor. Existence of the equilibria and their stability have been studied on the basis of basic reproduction number in two cases τ=0 and τ>0. The results show that stability changes occur through Hopf bifurcation in the delayed system. Optimal control theory is then applied to investigate the optimal strategy for curtailing the spread of the disease using three time-dependent control variables determined from sensitivity analysis. By using Pontryagin's Maximum Principle, we obtain the optimal integrated strategy and prove the uniqueness of optimal control solution. Analytical and numerical findings suggest that it is feasible to implement control techniques while minimizing the cost of implementation of optimal control strategies.



    The relationship between predator and prey has long been one of the important topics concerned by scholars. In recent years, several scholars have proposed more realistic models which should take the functional response into account [1,2]. As a result, Aziz-Alaoui and Okiye [3] proposed the famous predator-prey model with modified Leslie-Gower and Holling-type Ⅱ schemes, which is described as follows:

    {dx(t)dt=x(t)(r1ax(t)cy(t)h+x(t)),dy(t)dt=y(t)(r2fy(t)h+x(t)),

    where x(t) and y(t) stand for the sizes of the prey population and the predator population respectively; a represents the intraspecific competition strength; c means the per capita reduction rate of the prey due to the capture of the predator; h stands for the safeguard of the environment; f has the like signification of c. A growing number of scholars based on the above model have studied the possibility of a reciprocal relationship between the decline of predator populations and the per capita availability of prey (see e.g. [4,5,6,7,8,9]).

    In recent years, the world economy has grown rapidly with the development of industry and agriculture. At the same time, environmental pollution is becoming more and more serious, and even poses a threat to the survival of biological populations and human beings. For example, serious soil erosion and exhaust emissions from cars on the road are destroying the biological population structure. In order to better control and understand the effects of toxic substances on species, we must assess the population survival risk of exposure to toxic substances.

    Hallam and his colleagues [10,11,12] have opened the door to the study of environmental toxins by publishing three papers in a row that suggest the effects of toxins on deterministic models of ecosystems. From then on, many deterministic population models with toxic effects have been proposed and studied (see e.g. [13,14,15,16,17,18]). Particularly, consider that toxins are often released into the environment in pulses of regularity. For example, pesticides and heavy metals [19,20]. Therefore, based on the study of deterministic population models in polluted environments with impulsive toxin inputs, several authors explored the effects of toxins on population (see e.g. [21,22,23,24]).

    In particular, suppose that the living organisms absorb environmental toxicant into their bodies. C10(t), C20(t) and Ce(t) denote the concentration of the toxicant in the organism of the prey species, the predator species and the environment at time t, respectively. Suppose that the growth rate, ri, is an affine function of Ci0:

    riri0ri1Ci0(t),i=1,2.

    Therefore, the following model of predator and prey with modified Leslie-Gower and Holling-type Ⅱ schemes in the presence of toxins is proposed.

    {dx(t)=x(t)[r10r11C10(t)ax(t)cy(t)h+x(t)]dt,dy(t)=y(t)[r20r21C20(t)fy(t)h+x(t)]dt. (1.1)

    In fact, the rate of species growth is often disturbed by random perturbations [25]. In general, random perturbations in the environment can be represented by white noise [26,27]. Therefore, we consider the perturbations of white noise to the population growth rate with ri0ri0+σi˙Bi(t), we obtain the following stochastic model:

    {dx(t)=x(t)[r10r11C10(t)ax(t)cy(t)h+x(t)]dt+σ1x(t)dB1(t),dy(t)=y(t)[r20r21C20(t)fy(t)h+x(t)]dt+σ2y(t)dB2(t), (1.2)

    where σ2i, i=1,2 is the intensity of white noise; B1(t) and B2(t) are mutually independent Brownian motions defined on a complete probability space (Ω,F,P) with a filtration {Ft}tR+. Liu et al. [28] probed into several dynamical characteristics of model (1.2) and offered extinct and persistent conditions for the model (1.2).

    Model (1.2) assumes that the growth rate in the random environments is linear with respect to the Gaussian white noise

    ˆri0(t)=ri0+σidBi(t)dt,i=1,2.

    Integrating on the interval [0,T] results in

    ˉri0=1TT0ˆri0(t)dtri0+σiBi(T)TN(ri0,σ2i/T).

    Hence, the variance of the average per capita growth rate ˉri0 over an interval of length T tends to as T0. This is insufficient to describe the actual situation. Several authors [29,30] have claimed that using the mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is a more appropriate approach to incorporate the environment perturbations. On account of this method [31], one has

    dˆri0(t)=αi(ri0ˆri0(t))dt+ξidBi(t),i=1,2,

    i.e.

    ˆri0(t)=ri0+(˜ri0ri0)eαit+ξit0eαi(ts)dBi(s)=ri0+(˜ri0ri0)eαit+σi(t)dBi(t)dt,i=1,2,

    where ˜ri0=ˆri0(0), σi(t)=ξi2αi1e2αit, αi>0 represents the speed of reversion, ξ2i is the intensity of stochastic perturbations. Based on the ideas above, a three-species predator-prey model can be expressed as follows:

    {dy1(t)=y1(t)[r10+(˜r10r10)eα1tr11C10(t)ay1(t)c2y2(t)h2+y1(t)c3y3(t)h3+y1(t)]dt+σ1(t)y1(t)dB1(t),dy2(t)=y2(t)[r20+(˜r20r20)eα2tr21C20(t)f2y2(t)h2+y1(t)]dt+σ2(t)y2(t)dB2(t),dy3(t)=y3(t)[r30+(˜r30r30)eα3tr31C30(t)f3y3(t)h3+y1(t)]dt+σ3(t)y3(t)dB3(t), (1.3)

    where y1(t) is the population size of the prey at time t, yi(t),i=2,3 is the population size of the predator at time t.

    Now let us introduce the model of the concentration of toxicant. Suppose that Ci0(t) satisfies the following model:

    dCi0(t)dt=kiCe(t)liCi0(t),

    where ki stands for the uptake rate of toxicant from the environment; li denotes the loss rate of the toxicant from the species. Ce(t) denotes the concentrations of the toxicant in the environment at time t and satisfies the following model:

    {dCe(t)dt=hCe(t),tnγ,nZ+,Ce(t)=q,t=nγ,nZ+,

    where ζ(t)=ζ(t+)ζ(t), h is the loss rate of toxicant from environment, q is the toxicant input amount at every time, γ stands for the period of the impulsive input of toxicant.

    Therefore, we have the following one-prey two-predator system in polluted environments with pulse toxicant input:

    {dy1(t)=y1(t)[r10+(˜r10r10)eα1tr11C10(t)ay1(t)c2y2(t)h2+y1(t)c3y3(t)h3+y1(t)]dt+σ1(t)y1(t)dB1(t),dy2(t)=y2[r20+(˜r20r20)eα2tr21C20(t)f2y2(t)h2+y1(t)]dt+σ2(t)y2(t)dB2(t),dy3(t)=y3[r30+(˜r30r30)eα3tr31C30(t)f3y3(t)h3+y1(t)]dt+σ3(t)y3(t)dB3(t),dCi0(t)dt=kiCe(t)liCi0(t),i=1,2,3,dCe(t)dt=hCe(t),tnγ,nZ+,Ce(t)=q,t=nγ,nZ+. (1.4)

    Remark 1 In model (1.4), the parameters ri0,˜ri0,ki,li(i=1,2,3), fi,hi,ci(i=2,3) and a satisfy 0<ri0,˜ri0,ki,li,fi,hi,ci,a1. The parameter σ2i is the intensity of the white noise on the growth rate of species i, thus σ2i>0,i=1,2,3. The parameter γ,q>0. ri1 represents the decreasing rate of the intrinsic growth rate associated with the uptake of the toxicant. Thus ri1>0. In addition, Ci0 and Ce stand for the concentrations of the toxicant, therefore 0Ci0(t)1 and 0Ce(t)1 for t0. As a result, the following conditions need to be met: kili, q1ehγ, i=1,2,3.

    To the best of our knowledge, Liu et al. [28] only studied the persistence and extinction of two species system in polluted environment, little research has been done on the dynamics of corresponding three species system. Therefore, we deeply analyze the properties of model (1.4) in the stochastic environment improved by the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.

    The arrangement of this paper is as follows. In section 2, the persistence and extinction threshold for each species are proposed. In section 3, we carry out some numerical simulations to verify the theoretical results. Finally, we give some conclusions in section 4.

    For the sake of convenience and simplicity, we define the following notations:

    R3+={zR3|zi>0,i=1,2,3},bi(t)=ri0ξ2i4αi+ξ2i4αie2αitri1Ci0(t),
    Ki=qkihli,¯bi(t)=limt+t1t0bi(s)ds=ri0ξ2i4αiri1Kiγ,i=1,2,3.

    Lemma 1 Consider the following subsystem of model (1.4) [32]:

    {dC10(t)dt=k1Ce(t)l1C10(t),dC20(t)dt=k2Ce(t)l2C20(t),dC30(t)dt=k3Ce(t)l3C30(t),dCe(t)dt=hCe(t),tnγ,nZ+,ΔCi0(t)=0,ΔCe(t)=q,t=nγ,nZ+,0Ci0(0)1,0Ce(0)1,i=1,2,3.

    The model has a unique positive γ-periodic solution (˜C10(t),˜C20(t),˜C30(t),˜Ce(t))T which satisfies

    limt+t1t0˜Ci0(s)ds=kiqhliγ=Kiγ,i=1,2,3.

    Lemma 2 For arbitrary (y1(0),y2(0),y3(0))R3+, model (1.3) possesses a unique solution (y1(t),y2(t),y3(t))R3+ for all t0 a.s.(almost surely).

    Proof. Pay attention to the following system:

    {du(t)=[b1(t)+(˜r10r10)eα1taeu(t)c2ev(t)h2+eu(t)c3ew(t)h3+eu(t)]dt+σ1(t)dB1(t),dv(t)=[b2(t)+(˜r20r20)eα2tf2ev(t)h2+eu(t)]dt+σ2(t)dB2(t),dw(t)=[b3(t)+(˜r30r30)eα3tf3ew(t)h3+eu(t)]dt+σ3(t)dB3(t), (2.1)

    and u(0)=lny1(0), v(0)=lny2(0), w(0)=lny3(0). Due to the fact that the coefficients of model (2.1) satisfy the local Lipschitz condition, model (2.1) possesses a unique local solution (u(t),v(t),w(t))T on [0,τ), where τ means the explosion time. From the Itô's formula, we derive that (y1(t),y2(t),y3(t))=(eu(t),ev(t),ew(t)) is the unique local positive solution of model (1.3).

    Now let us verify that τ=+. Consider the following systems:

    dϕ(t)=ϕ(t)[r10+(˜r10r10)eα1tr11C10(t)aϕ(t)]dt+σ1ϕ(t)dB1(t),ϕ(0)=y1(0); (2.2)
    dn(t)=n(t)[r20+(˜r20r20)eα2tr21C20(t)f2h2n(t)]dt+σ2n(t)dB2(t),n(0)=y2(0); (2.3)
    dN(t)=N(t)[r20+(˜r20r20)eα2tr21C20(t)f2h2+ϕ(t)N(t)]dt+σ2N(t)dB2(t),N(0)=y2(0); (2.4)
    dm(t)=m(t)[r30+(˜r30r30)eα3tr31C30(t)f3h3m(t)]dt+σ3m(t)dB3(t),m(0)=y3(0); (2.5)
    dM(t)=M(t)[r30+(˜r30r30)eα3tr31C30(t)f3h3+ϕ(t)M(t)]dt+σ3M(t)dB3(t),M(0)=y3(0). (2.6)

    On the basis of the comparison theorem for stochastic differential equations [33], we get for t[0,τ),

    y1(t)ϕ(t),n(t)y2(t)N(t),m(t)y3(t)M(t),a.s. (2.7)

    According to Theorem 2.2 in Jiang and Shi [34], we get

    ϕ(t)=et0b1(s)ds˜r10r10α1(eα1t1)+t0σ1(s)dB1(s)y11(0)+at0es0b1(τ)dτ˜r10r10α1(eα1s1)+s0σ1(τ)dB1(τ)ds, (2.8)
    n(t)=et0b2(s)ds˜r20r20α2(eα2t1)+t0σ2(s)dB2(s)y12(0)+f2h2t0es0b2(τ)dτ˜r20r20α2(eα2s1)+s0σ2(τ)dB2(τ)ds, (2.9)
    N(t)=et0b2(s)ds˜r20r20α2(eα2t1)+t0σ2(s)dB2(s)y12(0)+t0f2h2+ϕ(s)es0b2(τ)dτ˜r20r20α2(eα2s1)+s0σ2(τ)dB2(τ)ds, (2.10)
    m(t)=et0b3(s)ds˜r30r30α3(eα3t1)+t0σ3(s)dB3(s)y13(0)+f3h3t0es0b3(τ)dτ˜r30r30α3(eα3s1)+s0σ3(τ)dB3(τ)ds, (2.11)
    M(t)=et0b3(s)ds˜r30r30α3(eα3t1)+t0σ3(s)dB3(s)y13(0)+t0f3h3+ϕ(s)es0b3(τ)dτ˜r30r30α3(eα3s1)+s0σ3(τ)dB3(τ)ds. (2.12)

    Due to the fact that ϕ(t),n(t),N(t),m(t) and M(t) are global, we can know that τ=+.

    Lemma 3 Let X(t)C(Ω×[0,+),R+), where C(Ω×[0,+),R+) denotes the family of all positive-valued functions defined on Ω×[0,+). [35]

    (i) If there exist three positive constants t0, β and β0 such that for all tt0,

    lnX(t)βtβ0t0X(s)ds+F(t),

    where F(t)/t0 as t+, then

    lim supt+t1t0X(s)dsβ/β0, a.s.

    (ii) If there exist three positive constants t0, β and β0 such that for all tt0,

    lnX(t)βtβ0t0X(S)ds+F(t),

    where F(t)/t0 as t+, then

    lim inft+t1t0X(s)dsβ/β0 , a.s.

    Lemma 4 Suppose that ˉb1>0, then

    (i) If ˉb2>0, then limt+lny2(t)t=0, a.s.

    (ii) If ˉb3>0, then limt+lny3(t)t=0, a.s.

    Proof (ⅰ). Choose sufficiently large T which fulfils that, for tT,

    (ˉbiε)tt0bi(s)ds(ˉbi+ε)t,e(ˉbiε)t2e(ˉbiε)T.

    For tT, one can deduce from (2.8) that

    ϕ(t)=et0b1(s)ds˜r10r10α1(eα1t1)+t0σ1(s)dB1(s)y11(0)+at0es0b1(τ)dτ˜r10r10α1(eα1s1)+s0σ1(τ)dB1(τ)dset0b1(s)ds˜r10r10α1(eα1t1)+t0σ1(s)dB1(s)at0es0b1(τ)dτ˜r10r10α1(eα1s1)+s0σ1(τ)dB1(τ)dse(ˉb1+ε)t˜r10r10α1(eα1t1)+t0σ1(s)dB1(s)aemin0vt{v0σ1(τ)dB1(τ)˜r10r10α1(eα1v1)}tTe(ˉb1ε)sds=(ˉb1ε)e(ˉb1+ε)t˜r10r10α1(eα1t1)+t0σ1(s)dB1(s)a(e(ˉb1ε)te(ˉb1ε)T)emin0vt{v0σ1(τ)dB1(τ)˜r10r10α1(eα1v1)}2(ˉb1ε)e(ˉb1+ε)t˜r10r10α1(eα1t1)+t0σ1(s)dB1(s)ae(ˉb1ε)temin0vt{v0σ1(τ)dB1(τ)˜r10r10α1(eα1v1)}=2(ˉb1ε)ae2εtL1(t),

    where

    L1(t)=et0σ1(s)dB1(s)˜r10r10α1(eα1t1)emin0vt{v0σ1(τ)dB1(τ)˜r10r10α1(eα1v1)}.

    Note that L1(t)1, consequently,

    tTf2h2+ϕ(s)es0b2(τ)dτ˜r20r20α2(eα2s1)+s0σ2(τ)dB2(τ)dstTf2e(ˉb2ε)s˜r20r20α2(eα2s1)+s0σ2(τ)dB2(τ)h2+2(ˉb1ε)ae2εsL1(s)dstTf2e(ˉb2ε)s˜r20r20α2(eα2s1)+s0σ2(τ)dB2(τ)(h2+2(ˉb1ε)a)e2εsL1(s)ds=af2ah2+2(ˉb1ε)tTe(ˉb23ε)s˜r20r20α2(eα2s1)+s0σ2(τ)dB2(τ)L11(s)dsaf2ah2+2(ˉb1ε)1ˉb23ε(e(ˉb23ε)te(ˉb23ε)T)min0vt{L2(v)}=L3(t)(e(ˉb23ε)te(ˉb23ε)T),

    where

    L2(t)=L11(t)et0σ2(τ)dB2(τ)˜r20r20α2(eα2t1),L3(t)=af2ah2+2(ˉb1ε)1ˉb23εmin0vt{L2(v)}.

    Then (2.10) implies that

    1N(t)etTb2(s)ds+˜r20r20α2(eα2(tT)1)tTσ2(s)dB2(s)×L3(t)(e(ˉb23ε)te(ˉb23ε)T)etTb2(s)ds+˜r20r20α2(eα2(tT)1)tTσ2(s)dB2(s)×12L3(t)e(ˉb23ε)tL4(t)×e4εt,

    where

    L4(t)=12L3(t)eT0b2(s)ds+˜r20r20α2(eα2(tT)1)tTσ2(s)dB2(s).

    Therefore,

    t1lnN(t)<t1lnL4(t)+4ε. (2.13)

    Note that limt+t1t0σi(s)dBi(s)=0(i=1,2,3), we then deduce that if ˉb2>0,

    limt+t1lnL4(t)=0, a.s.

    This together with (2.13), indicates

    lim supt+t1lny2(t)lim supt+t1lnN(t)0,a.s.

    Using Itô's formula to (2.3) deduces

    dlnn(t)=(b2(t)+(˜r20r20)eα2tf2h2n(t))dt+σ2(t)dB2(t).

    In other words,

    t1lnn(t)=t1lny2(0)+t1t0b2(s)ds˜r20r20α2t(eα2t1)f2h2t1t0n(s)ds+t1t0σ2(s)dB2(s). (2.14)

    Clearly, for arbitrary ε>0, there exists T>0 such that, for t>T,

    ˉb22εt1[lny2(0)˜r20r20α2(eα2t1)+t0b2(s)ds]ˉb2+2ε.

    Then, we derive from (2.14) that, for tT,

    t1lnn(t)ˉb2+2εf2h2t1t0n(s)ds+t1t0σ2(s)dB2(s), (2.15)
    t1lnn(t)ˉb22εf2h2t1t0n(s)ds+t1t0σ2(s)dB2(s). (2.16)

    Choose ε be sufficiently small such that 02εˉb2. Applying (i) and (ii) in Lemma 3 yields that

    h2(ˉb22ε)f2lim inft+t1t0n(s)dslim supt+t1t0n(s)dsh2(ˉb2+2ε)f2,a.s.

    An application of the arbitrariness of ε, we can obtain that

    limt+t1t0n(s)ds=h2ˉb2f2,a.s. (2.17)

    Which implies that limt+t1lnn(t)=0 a.s. Thanks to (2.7), one can derive that

    lim inft+t1lny2(t)limt+t1lnn(t)=0,a.s. (2.18)

    The proof of (ⅰ) is completed.

    The proof of (ⅱ) is similar to that of (ⅰ), so it is omitted here.

    Theorem 1 For model (1.3), the following conclusions hold:

    (I) If ˉb1<0,ˉb2<0 and ˉb3<0, then y1,y2 and y3 become extinct, i.e. limt+yi(t)=0, a.s., i=1,2,3.

    (Ⅱ) If ˉb1<0,ˉb2>0 and ˉb3<0, then y1 and y3 become extinct and y2 is persistent in the mean, i.e. limt+t1t0y2(s)ds=h2ˉb2/f2, a.s.

    (III) If ˉb1<0,ˉb2<0 and ˉb3>0, then y1 and y2 become extinct and y3 is persistent in the mean, i.e. limt+t1t0y3(s)ds=h3ˉb3/f3, a.s.

    (IV) If ˉb1>0,ˉb2<0 and ˉb3<0, then y2 and y3 become extinct and y1 is persistent in the mean, i.e. limt+t1t0y1(s)ds=ˉb1/a, a.s.

    (V) If ˉb1<0,ˉb2>0 and ˉb3>0, then y1 becomes extinct and y2 and y3 are persistent in the mean, i.e. limt+t1t0y2(s)ds=h2ˉb2/f2,limt+t1t0y3(s)ds=h3ˉb3/f3, a.s.

    (VI) If ˉb1>0,ˉb2>0 and ˉb3<0, then y3 becomes extinct, and

    (i) If ˉb1c2<ˉb2f2, then y1 becomes extinct and y2 is persistent in the mean, i.e. limt+t1t0y2(s)ds=h2ˉb2/f2, a.s.

    (ii) If ˉb1c2>ˉb2f2, then limt+t1t0y1(s)ds=ˉb1/ac2ˉb2/af2,

    limt+t1t0y2(s)h2+y1(s)ds=ˉb2/f2, a.s.

    (VII) If ˉb1>0,ˉb2<0 and ˉb3>0, then y2 becomes extinct, and

    (i) If ˉb1c3<ˉb3f3, then y1 becomes extinct and y3 is persistent in the mean, i.e. limt+t1t0y3(s)ds=h3ˉb3/f3, a.s.

    (ii) If ˉb1c3>ˉb3f3, then limt+t1t0y1(s)ds=ˉb1/ac3ˉb3/af3,

    limt+t1t0y3(s)h3+y1(s)ds=ˉb3/f3, a.s.

    (VIII) If ˉb1>0,ˉb2>0 and ˉb3>0, then,

    (i) If ˉb1<c2f2ˉb2+c3f3ˉb3, then y1 becomes extinct and y2 and y3 are persistent in the mean, i.e. limt+t1t0y2(s)ds=h2ˉb2/f2, limt+t1t0y3(s)ds=h3ˉb3/f3, a.s.

    (ii) If ˉb1>c2f2ˉb2+c3f3ˉb3, then limt+t1t0y1(s)ds=ˉb1/ac2ˉb2/af2c3ˉb3/af3, limt+t1t0y2(s)h2+y1(s)ds=ˉb2/f2, limt+t1t0y3(s)h3+y1(s)ds=ˉb3/f3, a.s.

    Proof. Applying Itô's formula to model (1.3) gives

    dlny1(t)=(b1(t)+(˜r10r10)eα1tay1(t)c2y2(t)h2+y1(t)c3y3(t)h3+y1(t))dt+σ1(t)dB1(t),dlny2(t)=(b2(t)+(˜r20r20)eα2tf2y2(t)h2+y1(t))dt+σ2(t)dB2(t),dlny3(t)=(b3(t)+(˜r30r30)eα3tf3y3(t)h3+y1(t))dt+σ3(t)dB3(t).

    As a consequence,

    lny1(t)lny1(0)=t0b1(s)ds˜r10r10α1(eα1t1)at0y1(s)dsc2t0y2(s)h2+y1(s)dsc3t0y3(s)h3+y1(s)ds+t0σ1(s)dB1(s), (2.19)
    lny2(t)lny2(0)=t0b2(s)ds˜r20r20α2(eα2t1)f2t0y2(s)h2+y1(s)ds+t0σ2(s)dB2(s), (2.20)
    lny3(t)lny3(0)=t0b3(s)ds˜r30r30α3(eα3t1)f3t0y3(s)h3+y1(s)ds+t0σ3(s)dB3(s). (2.21)

    First, let us prove (Ⅰ), we derive from (2.19) that, for sufficiently large t,

    t1lny1(t)y1(0)ˉb1+ε+t1t0σ1(s)dB1(s)˜r10r10tα1(eα1t1). (2.22)

    Note that limt+t1t0σ1(s)dB1(s)=0 and ˉb1+ε<0, thus limt+y1(t)=0, a.s. In the same way, ˉb2<0 means that limt+y2(t)=0, a.s., ˉb3<0 means that limt+y3(t)=0, a.s.

    (Ⅱ). Since ˉb1<0, ˉb3<0, we then deduce from (Ⅰ) that limt+y1(t)=0,limt+y3(t)=0, a.s. Then for sufficiently large t,

    lny2(t)(ˉb2+2ε)tf2h2+εt0y2(s)ds+t0σ2(s)dB2(s), (2.23)
    lny2(t)(ˉb22ε)tf2h2εt0y2(s)ds+t0σ2(s)dB2(s). (2.24)

    Making use of Lemma 3 to (2.23) and (2.24) respectively, we obtain

    lim supt+t1t0y2(s)ds(h2+ε)(ˉb2+2ε)f2,lim inft+t1t0y2(s)ds(h2ε)(ˉb22ε)f2.

    Therefore, from the arbitrariness of ε, we can derive that limt+t1t0y2(s)ds=h2ˉb2/f2, a.s.

    The proof of (Ⅲ) and (Ⅳ) is similar to that of (Ⅱ), thus is omitted here.

    Now let us prove (Ⅴ). According to ˉb1<0, we have limt+y1(t)=0. The proof is similar to (Ⅱ), so here is omitted.

    (Ⅵ). First of all, ˉb3<0 implies that limt+y3(t)=0, a.s.

    (ⅰ) Compute that (2.19)×f2(2.20)×c2, then we get

    f2t1lny1(t)y1(0)=c2t1lny2(t)y2(0)+t1f2t0b1(s)dst1c2t0b2(s)ds˜r10r10α1t(eα1t1)f2+˜r20r20α2t(eα2t1)c2af2t1t0y1(s)dsf2c3t1t0y3(s)h3+y1(s)ds+f2t1t0σ1(s)dB1(s)c2t1t0σ2(s)dB2(s)c2t1lny2(t)y2(0)+t1f2t0b1(s)dst1c2t0b2(s)ds˜r10r10α1t(eα1t1)f2+˜r20r20α2t(eα2t1)c2af2t1t0y1(s)ds+f2t1t0σ1(s)dB1(s)c2t1t0σ2(s)dB2(s). (2.25)

    In view of Lemma 4, for any ε>0, there exists a T>0 such that for t>T, we can see that

    c2t1lny2(t)y2(0)ε/4,f2t1lny1(0)ε/4,˜r20r20α2t(eα2t1)c2˜r10r10α1t(eα1t1)f2ε/4,f2t1t0σ1(s)dB1(s)c2t1t0σ2(s)dB2(s)ε/4,t1f2t0b1(s)dst1c2t0b2(s)dsf2ˉb1c2ˉb2+f2ε+c2ε.

    As a consequence, for t>T,

    t1f2lny1(t)(f2+c2+1)ε+f2ˉb1c2ˉb2. (2.26)

    Let ε be sufficiently small such that 0<ε<c2ˉb2ˉb1f2f2+c2+1. Consequently, limt+y1(t)=0. The proof of limt+t1t0y2(s)ds=h2ˉb2f2 is similar to that of (Ⅱ) and here is omitted.

    (ⅱ) It follows from (2.20) that

    t1lny2(t)t1lny2(0)=t1t0b2(s)ds˜r20r20α2t(eα2t1)f2t1t0y2(s)h2+y1(s)ds+t1t0σ2(s)dB2(s). (2.27)

    Making use of Lemma 4 and limt+t1t0σ2(s)dB2(s)=0, we can obtain

    limt+t1t0y2(s)h2+y1(s)ds=ˉb2f2. (2.28)

    Then, for any ε>0, there is T>0 such that for t>T,

    c2ˉb2f2ε˜r10r10α1t(eα1t1)c2t1t0y2(s)h2+y1(s)ds+t1lny1(0)c3t1t0y3(s)h3+y1(s)dsc2ˉb2f2+ε. (2.29)

    Substitute (2.29) into (2.19), and we can get that, for tT,

    t1lny1(t)ˉb1c2ˉb2f22εat1t0y1(s)ds+t1t0σ1(s)dB1(s),t1lny1(t)ˉb1c2ˉb2f2+2εat1t0y1(s)ds+t1t0σ1(s)dB1(s).

    Let ε be sufficiently small such that 0<ε<(ˉb1c2ˉb2/f2)/2. Thanks to Lemma 3, we have

    ˉb1ac2ˉb2af22εalim inft+t1t0y1(s)dslim supt+t1t0y1(s)dsˉb1ac2ˉb2af2+2εa.

    We then derive from the arbitrariness of ε that limt+t1t0y1(s)ds=ˉb1/ac2ˉb2/(af2).

    The proof of (Ⅶ) is similar to that of (Ⅵ), so it is omitted here.

    Now let us proof (Ⅷ).

    (ⅰ) Compute that (2.19)×f2f3(2.20)×f3c2(2.21)×f2c3,

    f2f3t1lny1(t)y1(0)=f3c2t1lny2(t)y2(0)+f2c3t1lny3(t)y3(0)+f2f3t1t0b1(s)dst1c2f3t0b2(s)dsc3f2t1t0b3(s)dsf2f3˜r10r10α1t(eα1t1)+c2f3˜r20r20α2t(eα2t1)+c3f2˜r30r30α3t(eα3t1)af2f3t1t0y1(s)ds+f2f3t1t0σ1(s)dB1(s)c2f3t1t0σ2(s)dB2(s)c3f2t1t0σ3(s)dB3(s).

    In view of Lemma 4, for any ε>0, there exists a T>0 such that for t>T, we can see that

    f3c2t1lny2(t)y2(0)+f2c3t1lny3(t)y3(0)ε/4,f2f3t1lny1(0)ε/4,f2f3˜r10r10α1t(eα1t1)+c2f3˜r20r20α2t(eα2t1)c3f2˜r30r30α1t(eα1t1)ε/4,f2f3t1t0σ1(s)dB1(s)c2f3t1t0σ2(s)dB2(s)c3f2t1t0σ3(s)dB3(s)ε/4,t1f2f3t0b1(s)dst1f3c2t0b2(s)dst1c3f2t0b3(s)dsf2f3ˉb1c2f3ˉb2c3f2ˉb3+(f2f3+c2f3+c3f2)ε.

    As a consequence, for t>T,

    t1f2f3lny1(t)(1+f2f3+c2f3+c3f2)ε+f2f3ˉb1c2f3ˉb2c3f2ˉb3. (2.30)

    Let ε be sufficiently small such that 0<ε<c3f2ˉb3+c2f3ˉb2f2f3ˉb11+f2f3+c2f3+c3f2, we have limt+y1(t)=0. According to the proof of (Ⅱ), we derive that

    limt+t1t0y2(s)ds=h2ˉb2f2.

    Similar to the proof of (Ⅱ), we can obtain

    limt+t1t0y3(s)ds=h3ˉb3f3.

    (ⅱ) It follows from (2.20), (2.21), Lemma 4 and limt+t1t0σi(s)dBi(s)=0,i=1,2,3 that

    limt+t1t0y2(s)h2+y1(s)ds=ˉb2f2,limt+t1t0y3(s)h3+y1(s)ds=ˉb3f3.

    Then, for any ε>0, there is T>0 such that for t>T,

    c2ˉb2f2c3ˉb3f3ε˜r10r10α1t(eα1t1)c2t1t0y2(s)h2+y1(s)dsc3t1t0y3(s)h3+y1(s)ds+t1lny1(0)c2ˉb2f2c3ˉb3f3+ε. (2.31)

    Substitute (2.31) into (2.19), we can get that, for tT,

    t1lny1(t)ˉb1c2ˉb2f2c3ˉb3f32εat1t0y1(t)ds+t1t0σ1(s)dB1(s),t1lny1(t)ˉb1c2ˉb2f2c3ˉb3f3+2εat1t0y1(t)ds+t1t0σ1(s)dB1(s).

    Let ε be sufficiently small such that 0<ε<(ˉb1c2ˉb2/f2c3ˉb3/f3)/2. Thanks to Lemma 3, we have

    ˉb1ac2ˉb2af2c3ˉb3af32εalim inft+t1t0y1(s)dslim supt+t1t0y1(s)dsˉb1ac2ˉb2af2c3ˉb3af3+2εa.

    We then derive from the arbitrariness of ε that limt+t1t0y1(s)ds=ˉb1/ac2ˉb2/(af2)c3ˉb3/(af3).

    The proof of Theorem 1 is completed.

    Now we use the Milstein method offered in [36] to verify the theoretical results numerically (here we only provide the functions of ξ2i since the functions of αi can be proffered analogously).

    In Figure 1-4, choose r10=0.5, r20=0.5, r30=0.3, ˜r10=0.3, ˜r20=0.25, ˜r30=0.2, r11=r21=r31=0.9, a=0.25, c2=0.36, c3=0.4, f2=0.5, f3=0.47, h2=h3=1, α1=0.31, α2=0.35, α3=0.42, γ=2, k1=0.2, k2=0.26 k3=0.21, l1=0.8, l2=0.7, l3=0.7, h=0.9, q=0.5. The only difference between conditions of Figure 1-4 is that the values of ξ21, ξ22 and ξ23 are different.

    Figure 1.  Solutions of system (1.4) for r10=0.5,r20=0.5,r30=0.3,˜r10=0.3,˜r20=0.25,˜r30=0.2,r11=r21=r31=0.9,a=0.25,c2=0.36,c3=0.4,f2=0.5,f3=0.47,h2=h3=1,α1=0.31,α2=0.35,α3=0.42,γ=2,k1=0.2,k2=0.26,k3=0.21,l1=0.8,l2=0.7,l3=0.7,h=0.9,q=0.5, and ξ21=0.55,ξ22=0.9,ξ23=0.5..
    Figure 2.  Solutions of system (1.4) for r10=0.5,r20=0.5,r30=0.3,˜r10=0.3,˜r20=0.25,˜r30=0.2,r11=r21=r31=0.9,a=0.25,c2=0.36,c3=0.4,f2=0.5,f3=0.47,h2=h3=1,α1=0.31,α2=0.35,α3=0.42,γ=2,k1=0.2,k2=0.26,k3=0.21,l1=0.8,l2=0.7,l3=0.7,h=0.9,q=0.5, and ξ21=0.55,ξ22=0.16,ξ23=0.5..
    Figure 3.  Solutions of system (1.4) for r10=0.5,r20=0.5,r30=0.3,˜r10=0.3,˜r20=0.25,˜r30=0.2,r11=r21=r31=0.9,a=0.25,c2=0.36,c3=0.4,f2=0.5,f3=0.47,h2=h3=1,α1=0.31,α2=0.35,α3=0.42,γ=2,k1=0.2,k2=0.26,k3=0.21,l1=0.8,l2=0.7,l3=0.7,h=0.9,q=0.5, and ξ21=0.15,ξ22=0.9,ξ23=0.5..
    Figure 4.  Solutions of system (1.4) for r10=0.5,r20=0.5,r30=0.3,˜r10=0.3,˜r20=0.25,˜r30=0.2,r11=r21=r31=0.9,a=0.25,c2=0.36,c3=0.4,f2=0.5,f3=0.47,h2=h3=1,α1=0.31,α2=0.35,α3=0.42,γ=2,k1=0.2,k2=0.26,k3=0.21,l1=0.8,l2=0.7,l3=0.7,h=0.9,q=0.5, and ξ21=0.55,ξ22=0.16,ξ23=0.09..

    (Ⅰ) In Figure 1, we choose ξ21=0.55, ξ22=0.9 and ξ23=0.5. Then ˉb1=0.006<0, ˉb2=0.2357<0, ˉb3=0.0726<0. According to (Ⅰ) in Theorem 1, y1, y2 and y3 die out.

    Figure 1 confirms these.

    (Ⅱ) In Figure 2, we choose ξ21=0.55, ξ22=0.16 and ξ23=0.5. Then ˉb1=0.006<0, ˉb2=0.2929>0, ˉb3=0.0726<0. On the basis of (Ⅱ) in Theorem 1, y1 and y3 die out and

    limt+t1t0y2(s)ds=h2ˉb2f2=0.5857.

    See Figure 2.

    (Ⅲ) In Figure 3, we choose ξ21=0.15, ξ22=0.9 and ξ23=0.5. Then ˉb1=0.2915>0, ˉb2=0.2357<0, ˉb3=0.0726<0. On the basis of (Ⅳ) in Theorem 1, y2 and y3 die out and

    limt+t1t0y1(s)ds=ˉb1a=1.2661.

    See Figure 3.

    (Ⅳ) In Figure 4, we choose ξ21=0.55, ξ22=0.16 and ξ23=0.09. Then ˉb1=0.006<0, ˉb2=ˉb2=0.2929>0, ˉb3=0.1714>0. On the basis of (Ⅴ) in Theorem 1, y1 dies out and

    limt+t1t0y2(s)ds=h2ˉb2f2=0.5857,limt+t1t0y3(s)ds=h3ˉb3f3=0.3647.

    Figure 4 confirms these.

    In Figures 5 and 6, we choose r10=0.6, r20=0.8, r30=0.3, ˜r10=0.3, ˜r20=0.25, ˜r30=0.2, r11=r21=r31=0.9, a=0.25, c2=0.36, c3=0.4, f2=0.5, f3=0.47, h2=h3=1, α1=0.81, α2=0.65, α3=0.42, γ=2, k1=0.2, k2=0.23 k3=0.45, l1=0.4, l2=0.8, l3=0.7, h=0.9, q=0.5. The only difference between conditions of Figures 5 and 6 is that the values of ξ21, ξ22 and ξ23 are different.

    Figure 5.  Solutions of system (1.4) for r10=0.6,r20=0.8,r30=0.3,˜r10=0.3,˜r20=0.25,˜r30=0.2,r11=r21=r31=0.9,a=0.25,c2=0.36,c3=0.4,f2=0.5,f3=0.47,h2=h3=1,α1=0.81,α2=0.65,α3=0.42,γ=2,k1=0.2,k2=0.23,k3=0.45,l1=0.4,l2=0.8,l3=0.7,h=0.9,q=0.5, and ξ21=0.5,ξ22=0.06,ξ23=0.5..
    Figure 6.  Solutions of system (1.4) for r10=0.6,r20=0.8,r30=0.3,˜r10=0.3,˜r20=0.25,˜r30=0.2,r11=r21=r31=0.9,a=0.25,c2=0.36,c3=0.4,f2=0.5,f3=0.47,h2=h3=1,α1=0.81,α2=0.65,α3=0.42,γ=2,k1=0.2,k2=0.23,k3=0.45,l1=0.4,l2=0.8,l3=0.7,h=0.9,q=0.5, and ξ21=0.5,ξ22=0.86,ξ23=0.5..

    (Ⅴ) In Figure 5, we choose ξ21=0.5, ξ22=0.06 and ξ23=0.5. Then ˉb1=0.3207>0, ˉb2=0.7050>0, ˉb3=0.1583<0 and ˉb1<c2ˉb2/f2=0.5076. On the basis of (Ⅵ) in Theorem 1, y1 and y3 die out and

    limt+t1t0y2(s)ds=h2ˉb2f2=1.4101.

    See Figure 5.

    (Ⅵ) In Figure 6, we choose ξ21=0.5, ξ22=0.86 and ξ23=0.5. Then ˉb1=0.3207>0, ˉb2=0.3974>0, ˉb3=0.1583<0 and ˉb1>c2ˉb2/f2=0.2861. On the basis of (Ⅵ) in Theorem 1, y3 dies out and

    limt+t1t0y1(s)ds=ˉb1ac2ˉb2af2=0.1383,limt+t1t0y2(s)h2+y1(s)ds=ˉb2f2=0.7947.

    See Figure 6.

    In Figures 7 and 8, we choose r10=0.6, r20=0.6, r30=0.4, ˜r10=0.3, ˜r20=0.15, ˜r30=0.3, r11=r21=r31=0.1, a=0.25, c2=0.36, c3=0.4, f2=0.75, f3=0.77, h2=h3=1, α1=0.61, α2=0.85, α3=0.89, γ=2, k1=0.32, k2=0.05 k3=0.25, l1=0.9, l2=0.7, l3=0.8, h=0.9, q=0.6. The only difference between conditions of Figures 7 and 8 is that the values of ξ21, ξ22 and ξ23 are different.

    Figure 7.  Solutions of system (1.4) for r10=0.6,r20=0.6,r30=0.4,˜r10=0.3,˜r20=0.15,˜r30=0.3,r11=r21=r31=0.1,a=0.25,c2=0.36,c3=0.4,f2=0.75,f3=0.77,h2=h3=1,α1=0.61,α2=0.85,α3=0.89,γ=2,k1=0.32,k2=0.05,k3=0.25,l1=0.9,l2=0.7,l3=0.8,h=0.9,q=0.6, and ξ21=0.5,ξ22=0.006,ξ23=0.009..
    Figure 8.  Solutions of system (1.4) for r10=0.6,r20=0.6,r30=0.4,˜r10=0.3,˜r20=0.15,˜r30=0.3,r11=r21=r31=0.1,a=0.25,c2=0.36,c3=0.4,f2=0.75,f3=0.77,h2=h3=1,α1=0.61,α2=0.85,α3=0.89,γ=2,k1=0.32,k2=0.05,k3=0.25,l1=0.9,l2=0.7,l3=0.8,h=0.9,q=0.6, and ξ21=0.0002,ξ22=0.006,ξ23=0.009..

    (Ⅶ) In Figure 7, we choose ξ21=0.5, ξ22=0.006 and ξ23=0.009. Then ˉb1=0.3832>0, ˉb2=0.5959>0, ˉb3=0.3871>0 and ˉb1<c2ˉb2/f2+c3ˉb3/f3=0.4871. On the basis of (Ⅷ) in Theorem 1, y1 dies out and

    limt+t1t0y2(s)ds=h2ˉb2f2=0.7945,limt+t1t0y3(s)ds=h3ˉb3f3=0.5027.

    See Figure 7.

    (Ⅷ) In Figure 8, we choose ξ21=0.0002, ξ22=0.006 and ξ23=0.009. Then ˉb1=0.5881>0, ˉb2=0.5959>0, ˉb3=0.3871>0 and ˉb1>c2ˉb2/f2+c3ˉb3/f3=0.4871. On the basis of (Ⅷ) in Theorem 1, we have

    limt+t1t0y1(s)ds=ˉb1ac2ˉb2af2c3ˉb3af3=0.4040,limt+t1t0y2(s)h2+y1(s)ds=ˉb2f2=0.7945,limt+t1t0y3(s)h3+y1(s)ds=ˉb3f3=0.5027.

    See Figure 8.

    In Figures 9 and 10, we choose r10=0.2, r20=0.1, r30=0.2, ˜r10=0.1, ˜r20=0.05, ˜r30=0.13, r11=2, r21=1, r31=2.6, a=0.5, c2=0.2, c3=0.2, f2=0.95, f3=0.97, h2=h3=1, α1=0.81, α2=0.86, α3=0.8, k1=0.11, k2=0.12 k3=0.125, l1=0.6, l2=0.7, l3=0.7, h=0.9, q=0.12, ξ21=0.02, ξ22=0.006, ξ23=0.009. The only difference between conditions of Figures 9 and 10 is that the values of γ are different.

    Figure 9.  Solutions of system (1.4) for r10=0.2,r20=0.1,r30=0.2,˜r10=0.1,˜r20=0.05,˜r30=0.13,r11=2,r21=1,r31=2.6,a=0.5,c2=0.2,c3=0.2,f2=0.95,f3=0.97,h2=h3=1,α1=0.81,α2=0.86,α3=0.8,k1=0.11,k2=0.12,k3=0.125,l1=0.6,l2=0.7,l3=0.7,h=0.9,q=0.12,ξ21=0.02,ξ22=0.006,ξ23=0.009 and γ=4..
    Figure 10.  Solutions of system (1.4) for r10=0.2,r20=0.1,r30=0.2,˜r10=0.1,˜r20=0.05,˜r30=0.13,r11=2,r21=1,r31=2.6,a=0.5,c2=0.2,c3=0.2,f2=0.95,f3=0.97,h2=h3=1,α1=0.81,α2=0.86,α3=0.8,k1=0.11,k2=0.12,k3=0.125,l1=0.6,l2=0.7,l3=0.7,h=0.9,q=0.4,ξ21=0.02,ξ22=0.006,ξ23=0.009 and γ=0.23..

    (Ⅸ) In Figure 9, we choose γ=4. Then ˉb1=0.1816>0, ˉb2=0.0925>0, ˉb3=0.1817>0 and ˉb1>c2ˉb2/f2+c3ˉb3/f3=0.0569. On the basis of (Ⅷ) in Theorem 1, we have

    limt+t1t0y1(s)ds=ˉb1ac2ˉb2af2c3ˉb3af3=0.2493,limt+t1t0y2(s)h2+y1(s)ds=ˉb2f2=0.0974,limt+t1t0y3(s)h3+y1(s)ds=ˉb3f3=0.1873.

    See Figure 9.

    In Figure 10, choose γ=0.23. Then ˉb1=0.0187<0, ˉb2=0.0011<0 and ˉb3=0.0720<0. On the basis of (Ⅰ) in Theorem 1, y1, y2 and y3 die out.

    See Figure 10.

    By comparing Figure 9 with Figure 10, one can observe that with the decrease of toxicant impulsive period γ, species tends to die out.

    In this paper, we take advantage of a mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to portray the random perturbations in the environment and assume that the toxicants are released in regular pulses. Based on the classical deterministic predator-prey model with modified Leslie-Gower Holling-type Ⅱ schemes, we present a three-species predator prey stochastic model with modified Leslie-Gower Holling-type Ⅱ schemes, and use more appropriate methods to describe random perturbations in the environment. We obtain sharp sufficient conditions for persistence in the mean and extinction for each species of model (1.4).

    Theorem 1 has some interesting biological interpretations. By Theorem 1, we can see that each species is either extinct or persistent in the mean, relying on the sign of ˉbi(i=1,2,3), ˉb1f2c2ˉb2, ˉb1f3c3ˉb3, and f2f3ˉb1c2f3ˉb2c3f2ˉb3.

    We note that the intensity of the perturbation ξ2i and the speed of reversion αi are two key parameters in the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Obviously,

    dˉbidαi>0,d(ˉb1f2c2ˉb2)dα1>0,d(ˉb1f2f3c2f3ˉb2c3f2ˉb3)dα1>0,d(ˉb1f3c3ˉb3)dα1>0,d(ˉb1f2c2ˉb2)dα2<0,d(ˉb1f2f3c2f3ˉb2c3f2ˉb3)dα2<0,d(ˉb1f3c3ˉb3)dα3<0,d(ˉb1f2f3c2f3ˉb2c3f2ˉb3)dα3<0,dˉbidξ2i<0,d(ˉb1f2c2ˉb2)dξ21<0,d(ˉb1f3c3ˉb3)dξ21<0,d(ˉb1f2f3c2f3ˉb2c3f2ˉb3)dξ21<0,d(ˉb1f2c2ˉb2)dξ22>0,d(ˉb1f2f3c2f3ˉb2c3f2ˉb3)dξ22>0,d(ˉb1f3c3ˉb3)dξ23>0,d(ˉb1f2f3c2f3ˉb2c3f2ˉb3)dξ23>0.

    Therefore, with the increase of αi (respectively, ξ2i), species yi tends to be persistent (respectively, extinct), i=1,2,3. Furthermore, with the increase of α2 or α3 (respectively, ξ22 or ξ23), the prey population y1 tends to die out (respectively, be persistent) provided ˉbi>0,i=1,2,3.

    Some interesting topics remain to be solved. For example, it would be interesting to dissect other random noises such as the telephone noise (see [37]), the Lˊevy noise (see [38]) or reaction diffusion (see [39]) etc. We leave these questions for future research.

    The work is supported by National Science Foundation of China(No.11672326) and Scientific Research Project of Tianjin Municipal Education Commission (No.2019KJ131).

    The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.



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