
In this paper, a mathematical model has been formulated for the transmission dynamics of citrus Huanglongbing considering latent period as the time delay factor. Existence of the equilibria and their stability have been studied on the basis of basic reproduction number in two cases τ=0 and τ>0. The results show that stability changes occur through Hopf bifurcation in the delayed system. Optimal control theory is then applied to investigate the optimal strategy for curtailing the spread of the disease using three time-dependent control variables determined from sensitivity analysis. By using Pontryagin's Maximum Principle, we obtain the optimal integrated strategy and prove the uniqueness of optimal control solution. Analytical and numerical findings suggest that it is feasible to implement control techniques while minimizing the cost of implementation of optimal control strategies.
Citation: Zhenzhen Liao, Shujing Gao, Shuixian Yan, Genjiao Zhou. Transmission dynamics and optimal control of a Huanglongbing model with time delay[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2021, 18(4): 4162-4192. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2021209
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In this paper, a mathematical model has been formulated for the transmission dynamics of citrus Huanglongbing considering latent period as the time delay factor. Existence of the equilibria and their stability have been studied on the basis of basic reproduction number in two cases τ=0 and τ>0. The results show that stability changes occur through Hopf bifurcation in the delayed system. Optimal control theory is then applied to investigate the optimal strategy for curtailing the spread of the disease using three time-dependent control variables determined from sensitivity analysis. By using Pontryagin's Maximum Principle, we obtain the optimal integrated strategy and prove the uniqueness of optimal control solution. Analytical and numerical findings suggest that it is feasible to implement control techniques while minimizing the cost of implementation of optimal control strategies.
The relationship between predator and prey has long been one of the important topics concerned by scholars. In recent years, several scholars have proposed more realistic models which should take the functional response into account [1,2]. As a result, Aziz-Alaoui and Okiye [3] proposed the famous predator-prey model with modified Leslie-Gower and Holling-type Ⅱ schemes, which is described as follows:
{dx(t)dt=x(t)(r1−ax(t)−cy(t)h+x(t)),dy(t)dt=y(t)(r2−fy(t)h+x(t)), |
where x(t) and y(t) stand for the sizes of the prey population and the predator population respectively; a represents the intraspecific competition strength; c means the per capita reduction rate of the prey due to the capture of the predator; h stands for the safeguard of the environment; f has the like signification of c. A growing number of scholars based on the above model have studied the possibility of a reciprocal relationship between the decline of predator populations and the per capita availability of prey (see e.g. [4,5,6,7,8,9]).
In recent years, the world economy has grown rapidly with the development of industry and agriculture. At the same time, environmental pollution is becoming more and more serious, and even poses a threat to the survival of biological populations and human beings. For example, serious soil erosion and exhaust emissions from cars on the road are destroying the biological population structure. In order to better control and understand the effects of toxic substances on species, we must assess the population survival risk of exposure to toxic substances.
Hallam and his colleagues [10,11,12] have opened the door to the study of environmental toxins by publishing three papers in a row that suggest the effects of toxins on deterministic models of ecosystems. From then on, many deterministic population models with toxic effects have been proposed and studied (see e.g. [13,14,15,16,17,18]). Particularly, consider that toxins are often released into the environment in pulses of regularity. For example, pesticides and heavy metals [19,20]. Therefore, based on the study of deterministic population models in polluted environments with impulsive toxin inputs, several authors explored the effects of toxins on population (see e.g. [21,22,23,24]).
In particular, suppose that the living organisms absorb environmental toxicant into their bodies. C10(t), C20(t) and Ce(t) denote the concentration of the toxicant in the organism of the prey species, the predator species and the environment at time t, respectively. Suppose that the growth rate, ri, is an affine function of Ci0:
ri→ri0−ri1Ci0(t),i=1,2. |
Therefore, the following model of predator and prey with modified Leslie-Gower and Holling-type Ⅱ schemes in the presence of toxins is proposed.
{dx(t)=x(t)[r10−r11C10(t)−ax(t)−cy(t)h+x(t)]dt,dy(t)=y(t)[r20−r21C20(t)−fy(t)h+x(t)]dt. | (1.1) |
In fact, the rate of species growth is often disturbed by random perturbations [25]. In general, random perturbations in the environment can be represented by white noise [26,27]. Therefore, we consider the perturbations of white noise to the population growth rate with ri0→ri0+σi˙Bi(t), we obtain the following stochastic model:
{dx(t)=x(t)[r10−r11C10(t)−ax(t)−cy(t)h+x(t)]dt+σ1x(t)dB1(t),dy(t)=y(t)[r20−r21C20(t)−fy(t)h+x(t)]dt+σ2y(t)dB2(t), | (1.2) |
where σ2i, i=1,2 is the intensity of white noise; B1(t) and B2(t) are mutually independent Brownian motions defined on a complete probability space (Ω,F,P) with a filtration {Ft}t∈R+. Liu et al. [28] probed into several dynamical characteristics of model (1.2) and offered extinct and persistent conditions for the model (1.2).
Model (1.2) assumes that the growth rate in the random environments is linear with respect to the Gaussian white noise
ˆri0(t)=ri0+σidBi(t)dt,i=1,2. |
Integrating on the interval [0,T] results in
ˉri0=1T∫T0ˆri0(t)dt→ri0+σiBi(T)T∼N(ri0,σ2i/T). |
Hence, the variance of the average per capita growth rate ˉri0 over an interval of length T tends to ∞ as T→0. This is insufficient to describe the actual situation. Several authors [29,30] have claimed that using the mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is a more appropriate approach to incorporate the environment perturbations. On account of this method [31], one has
dˆri0(t)=αi(ri0−ˆri0(t))dt+ξidBi(t),i=1,2, |
i.e.
ˆri0(t)=ri0+(˜ri0−ri0)e−αit+ξi∫t0e−αi(t−s)dBi(s)=ri0+(˜ri0−ri0)e−αit+σi(t)dBi(t)dt,i=1,2, |
where ˜ri0=ˆri0(0), σi(t)=ξi√2αi√1−e−2αit, αi>0 represents the speed of reversion, ξ2i is the intensity of stochastic perturbations. Based on the ideas above, a three-species predator-prey model can be expressed as follows:
{dy1(t)=y1(t)[r10+(˜r10−r10)e−α1t−r11C10(t)−ay1(t)−c2y2(t)h2+y1(t)−c3y3(t)h3+y1(t)]dt+σ1(t)y1(t)dB1(t),dy2(t)=y2(t)[r20+(˜r20−r20)e−α2t−r21C20(t)−f2y2(t)h2+y1(t)]dt+σ2(t)y2(t)dB2(t),dy3(t)=y3(t)[r30+(˜r30−r30)e−α3t−r31C30(t)−f3y3(t)h3+y1(t)]dt+σ3(t)y3(t)dB3(t), | (1.3) |
where y1(t) is the population size of the prey at time t, yi(t),i=2,3 is the population size of the predator at time t.
Now let us introduce the model of the concentration of toxicant. Suppose that Ci0(t) satisfies the following model:
dCi0(t)dt=kiCe(t)−liCi0(t), |
where ki stands for the uptake rate of toxicant from the environment; li denotes the loss rate of the toxicant from the species. Ce(t) denotes the concentrations of the toxicant in the environment at time t and satisfies the following model:
{dCe(t)dt=−hCe(t),t≠nγ,n∈Z+,△Ce(t)=q,t=nγ,n∈Z+, |
where △ζ(t)=ζ(t+)−ζ(t), h is the loss rate of toxicant from environment, q is the toxicant input amount at every time, γ stands for the period of the impulsive input of toxicant.
Therefore, we have the following one-prey two-predator system in polluted environments with pulse toxicant input:
{dy1(t)=y1(t)[r10+(˜r10−r10)e−α1t−r11C10(t)−ay1(t)−c2y2(t)h2+y1(t)−c3y3(t)h3+y1(t)]dt+σ1(t)y1(t)dB1(t),dy2(t)=y2[r20+(˜r20−r20)e−α2t−r21C20(t)−f2y2(t)h2+y1(t)]dt+σ2(t)y2(t)dB2(t),dy3(t)=y3[r30+(˜r30−r30)e−α3t−r31C30(t)−f3y3(t)h3+y1(t)]dt+σ3(t)y3(t)dB3(t),dCi0(t)dt=kiCe(t)−liCi0(t),i=1,2,3,dCe(t)dt=−hCe(t),t≠nγ,n∈Z+,△Ce(t)=q,t=nγ,n∈Z+. | (1.4) |
Remark 1 In model (1.4), the parameters ri0,˜ri0,ki,li(i=1,2,3), fi,hi,ci(i=2,3) and a satisfy 0<ri0,˜ri0,ki,li,fi,hi,ci,a≤1. The parameter σ2i is the intensity of the white noise on the growth rate of species i, thus σ2i>0,i=1,2,3. The parameter γ,q>0. ri1 represents the decreasing rate of the intrinsic growth rate associated with the uptake of the toxicant. Thus ri1>0. In addition, Ci0 and Ce stand for the concentrations of the toxicant, therefore 0≤Ci0(t)≤1 and 0≤Ce(t)≤1 for t≥0. As a result, the following conditions need to be met: ki≤li, q≤1−e−hγ, i=1,2,3.
To the best of our knowledge, Liu et al. [28] only studied the persistence and extinction of two species system in polluted environment, little research has been done on the dynamics of corresponding three species system. Therefore, we deeply analyze the properties of model (1.4) in the stochastic environment improved by the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.
The arrangement of this paper is as follows. In section 2, the persistence and extinction threshold for each species are proposed. In section 3, we carry out some numerical simulations to verify the theoretical results. Finally, we give some conclusions in section 4.
For the sake of convenience and simplicity, we define the following notations:
R3+={z∈R3|zi>0,i=1,2,3},bi(t)=ri0−ξ2i4αi+ξ2i4αie−2αit−ri1Ci0(t), |
Ki=qkihli,¯bi(t)=limt→+∞t−1∫t0bi(s)ds=ri0−ξ2i4αi−ri1Kiγ,i=1,2,3. |
Lemma 1 Consider the following subsystem of model (1.4) [32]:
{dC10(t)dt=k1Ce(t)−l1C10(t),dC20(t)dt=k2Ce(t)−l2C20(t),dC30(t)dt=k3Ce(t)−l3C30(t),dCe(t)dt=−hCe(t),t≠nγ,n∈Z+,ΔCi0(t)=0,ΔCe(t)=q,t=nγ,n∈Z+,0≤Ci0(0)≤1,0≤Ce(0)≤1,i=1,2,3. |
The model has a unique positive γ-periodic solution (˜C10(t),˜C20(t),˜C30(t),˜Ce(t))T which satisfies
limt→+∞t−1∫t0˜Ci0(s)ds=kiqhliγ=Kiγ,i=1,2,3. |
Lemma 2 For arbitrary (y1(0),y2(0),y3(0))∈R3+, model (1.3) possesses a unique solution (y1(t),y2(t),y3(t))∈R3+ for all t≥0 a.s.(almost surely).
Proof. Pay attention to the following system:
{du(t)=[b1(t)+(˜r10−r10)e−α1t−aeu(t)−c2ev(t)h2+eu(t)−c3ew(t)h3+eu(t)]dt+σ1(t)dB1(t),dv(t)=[b2(t)+(˜r20−r20)e−α2t−f2ev(t)h2+eu(t)]dt+σ2(t)dB2(t),dw(t)=[b3(t)+(˜r30−r30)e−α3t−f3ew(t)h3+eu(t)]dt+σ3(t)dB3(t), | (2.1) |
and u(0)=lny1(0), v(0)=lny2(0), w(0)=lny3(0). Due to the fact that the coefficients of model (2.1) satisfy the local Lipschitz condition, model (2.1) possesses a unique local solution (u(t),v(t),w(t))T on [0,τ∗), where τ∗ means the explosion time. From the Itô's formula, we derive that (y1(t),y2(t),y3(t))=(eu(t),ev(t),ew(t)) is the unique local positive solution of model (1.3).
Now let us verify that τ∗=+∞. Consider the following systems:
dϕ(t)=ϕ(t)[r10+(˜r10−r10)e−α1t−r11C10(t)−aϕ(t)]dt+σ1ϕ(t)dB1(t),ϕ(0)=y1(0); | (2.2) |
dn(t)=n(t)[r20+(˜r20−r20)e−α2t−r21C20(t)−f2h2n(t)]dt+σ2n(t)dB2(t),n(0)=y2(0); | (2.3) |
dN(t)=N(t)[r20+(˜r20−r20)e−α2t−r21C20(t)−f2h2+ϕ(t)N(t)]dt+σ2N(t)dB2(t),N(0)=y2(0); | (2.4) |
dm(t)=m(t)[r30+(˜r30−r30)e−α3t−r31C30(t)−f3h3m(t)]dt+σ3m(t)dB3(t),m(0)=y3(0); | (2.5) |
dM(t)=M(t)[r30+(˜r30−r30)e−α3t−r31C30(t)−f3h3+ϕ(t)M(t)]dt+σ3M(t)dB3(t),M(0)=y3(0). | (2.6) |
On the basis of the comparison theorem for stochastic differential equations [33], we get for t∈[0,τ∗),
y1(t)≤ϕ(t),n(t)≤y2(t)≤N(t),m(t)≤y3(t)≤M(t),a.s. | (2.7) |
According to Theorem 2.2 in Jiang and Shi [34], we get
ϕ(t)=e∫t0b1(s)ds−˜r10−r10α1(e−α1t−1)+∫t0σ1(s)dB1(s)y−11(0)+a∫t0e∫s0b1(τ)dτ−˜r10−r10α1(e−α1s−1)+∫s0σ1(τ)dB1(τ)ds, | (2.8) |
n(t)=e∫t0b2(s)ds−˜r20−r20α2(e−α2t−1)+∫t0σ2(s)dB2(s)y−12(0)+f2h2∫t0e∫s0b2(τ)dτ−˜r20−r20α2(e−α2s−1)+∫s0σ2(τ)dB2(τ)ds, | (2.9) |
N(t)=e∫t0b2(s)ds−˜r20−r20α2(e−α2t−1)+∫t0σ2(s)dB2(s)y−12(0)+∫t0f2h2+ϕ(s)e∫s0b2(τ)dτ−˜r20−r20α2(e−α2s−1)+∫s0σ2(τ)dB2(τ)ds, | (2.10) |
m(t)=e∫t0b3(s)ds−˜r30−r30α3(e−α3t−1)+∫t0σ3(s)dB3(s)y−13(0)+f3h3∫t0e∫s0b3(τ)dτ−˜r30−r30α3(e−α3s−1)+∫s0σ3(τ)dB3(τ)ds, | (2.11) |
M(t)=e∫t0b3(s)ds−˜r30−r30α3(e−α3t−1)+∫t0σ3(s)dB3(s)y−13(0)+∫t0f3h3+ϕ(s)e∫s0b3(τ)dτ−˜r30−r30α3(e−α3s−1)+∫s0σ3(τ)dB3(τ)ds. | (2.12) |
Due to the fact that ϕ(t),n(t),N(t),m(t) and M(t) are global, we can know that τ∗=+∞.
Lemma 3 Let X(t)∈C(Ω×[0,+∞),R+), where C(Ω×[0,+∞),R+) denotes the family of all positive-valued functions defined on Ω×[0,+∞). [35]
(i) If there exist three positive constants t0, β and β0 such that for all t≥t0,
lnX(t)≤βt−β0∫t0X(s)ds+F(t), |
where F(t)/t→0 as t→+∞, then
lim supt→+∞t−1∫t0X(s)ds≤β/β0, a.s.
(ii) If there exist three positive constants t0, β and β0 such that for all t≥t0,
lnX(t)≥βt−β0∫t0X(S)ds+F(t), |
where F(t)/t→0 as t→+∞, then
lim inft→+∞t−1∫t0X(s)ds≥β/β0 , a.s.
Lemma 4 Suppose that ˉb1>0, then
(i) If ˉb2>0, then limt→+∞lny2(t)t=0, a.s.
(ii) If ˉb3>0, then limt→+∞lny3(t)t=0, a.s.
Proof (ⅰ). Choose sufficiently large T which fulfils that, for t≥T,
(ˉbi−ε)t≤∫t0bi(s)ds≤(ˉbi+ε)t,e(ˉbi−ε)t≥2e(ˉbi−ε)T. |
For t≥T, one can deduce from (2.8) that
ϕ(t)=e∫t0b1(s)ds−˜r10−r10α1(e−α1t−1)+∫t0σ1(s)dB1(s)y−11(0)+a∫t0e∫s0b1(τ)dτ−˜r10−r10α1(e−α1s−1)+∫s0σ1(τ)dB1(τ)ds≤e∫t0b1(s)ds−˜r10−r10α1(e−α1t−1)+∫t0σ1(s)dB1(s)a∫t0e∫s0b1(τ)dτ−˜r10−r10α1(e−α1s−1)+∫s0σ1(τ)dB1(τ)ds≤e(ˉb1+ε)t−˜r10−r10α1(e−α1t−1)+∫t0σ1(s)dB1(s)aemin0≤v≤t{∫v0σ1(τ)dB1(τ)−˜r10−r10α1(e−α1v−1)}∫tTe(ˉb1−ε)sds=(ˉb1−ε)e(ˉb1+ε)t−˜r10−r10α1(e−α1t−1)+∫t0σ1(s)dB1(s)a(e(ˉb1−ε)t−e(ˉb1−ε)T)emin0≤v≤t{∫v0σ1(τ)dB1(τ)−˜r10−r10α1(e−α1v−1)}≤2(ˉb1−ε)e(ˉb1+ε)t−˜r10−r10α1(e−α1t−1)+∫t0σ1(s)dB1(s)ae(ˉb1−ε)temin0≤v≤t{∫v0σ1(τ)dB1(τ)−˜r10−r10α1(e−α1v−1)}=2(ˉb1−ε)ae2εtL1(t), |
where
L1(t)=e∫t0σ1(s)dB1(s)−˜r10−r10α1(e−α1t−1)emin0≤v≤t{∫v0σ1(τ)dB1(τ)−˜r10−r10α1(e−α1v−1)}. |
Note that L1(t)≥1, consequently,
∫tTf2h2+ϕ(s)e∫s0b2(τ)dτ−˜r20−r20α2(e−α2s−1)+∫s0σ2(τ)dB2(τ)ds≥∫tTf2e(ˉb2−ε)s−˜r20−r20α2(e−α2s−1)+∫s0σ2(τ)dB2(τ)h2+2(ˉb1−ε)ae2εsL1(s)ds≥∫tTf2e(ˉb2−ε)s−˜r20−r20α2(e−α2s−1)+∫s0σ2(τ)dB2(τ)(h2+2(ˉb1−ε)a)e2εsL1(s)ds=af2ah2+2(ˉb1−ε)∫tTe(ˉb2−3ε)s−˜r20−r20α2(e−α2s−1)+∫s0σ2(τ)dB2(τ)L−11(s)ds≥af2ah2+2(ˉb1−ε)1ˉb2−3ε(e(ˉb2−3ε)t−e(ˉb2−3ε)T)min0≤v≤t{L2(v)}=L3(t)(e(ˉb2−3ε)t−e(ˉb2−3ε)T), |
where
L2(t)=L−11(t)e∫t0σ2(τ)dB2(τ)−˜r20−r20α2(e−α2t−1),L3(t)=af2ah2+2(ˉb1−ε)1ˉb2−3εmin0≤v≤t{L2(v)}. |
Then (2.10) implies that
1N(t)≥e−∫tTb2(s)ds+˜r20−r20α2(e−α2(t−T)−1)−∫tTσ2(s)dB2(s)×L3(t)(e(ˉb2−3ε)t−e(ˉb2−3ε)T)≥e−∫tTb2(s)ds+˜r20−r20α2(e−α2(t−T)−1)−∫tTσ2(s)dB2(s)×12L3(t)e(ˉb2−3ε)t≥L4(t)×e−4εt, |
where
L4(t)=12L3(t)e∫T0b2(s)ds+˜r20−r20α2(e−α2(t−T)−1)−∫tTσ2(s)dB2(s). |
Therefore,
t−1lnN(t)<−t−1lnL4(t)+4ε. | (2.13) |
Note that limt→+∞t−1∫t0σi(s)dBi(s)=0(i=1,2,3), we then deduce that if ˉb2>0,
limt→+∞t−1lnL4(t)=0, a.s.
This together with (2.13), indicates
lim supt→+∞t−1lny2(t)≤lim supt→+∞t−1lnN(t)≤0,a.s. |
Using Itô's formula to (2.3) deduces
dlnn(t)=(b2(t)+(˜r20−r20)e−α2t−f2h2n(t))dt+σ2(t)dB2(t). |
In other words,
t−1lnn(t)=t−1lny2(0)+t−1∫t0b2(s)ds−˜r20−r20α2t(e−α2t−1)−f2h2t−1∫t0n(s)ds+t−1∫t0σ2(s)dB2(s). | (2.14) |
Clearly, for arbitrary ε>0, there exists T>0 such that, for t>T,
ˉb2−2ε≤t−1[lny2(0)−˜r20−r20α2(e−α2t−1)+∫t0b2(s)ds]≤ˉb2+2ε. |
Then, we derive from (2.14) that, for t≥T,
t−1lnn(t)≤ˉb2+2ε−f2h2t−1∫t0n(s)ds+t−1∫t0σ2(s)dB2(s), | (2.15) |
t−1lnn(t)≥ˉb2−2ε−f2h2t−1∫t0n(s)ds+t−1∫t0σ2(s)dB2(s). | (2.16) |
Choose ε be sufficiently small such that 0≤2ε≤ˉb2. Applying (i) and (ii) in Lemma 3 yields that
h2(ˉb2−2ε)f2≤lim inft→+∞t−1∫t0n(s)ds≤lim supt→+∞t−1∫t0n(s)ds≤h2(ˉb2+2ε)f2,a.s. |
An application of the arbitrariness of ε, we can obtain that
limt→+∞t−1∫t0n(s)ds=h2ˉb2f2,a.s. | (2.17) |
Which implies that limt→+∞t−1lnn(t)=0 a.s. Thanks to (2.7), one can derive that
lim inft→+∞t−1lny2(t)≥limt→+∞t−1lnn(t)=0,a.s. | (2.18) |
The proof of (ⅰ) is completed.
The proof of (ⅱ) is similar to that of (ⅰ), so it is omitted here.
Theorem 1 For model (1.3), the following conclusions hold:
(I) If ˉb1<0,ˉb2<0 and ˉb3<0, then y1,y2 and y3 become extinct, i.e. limt→+∞yi(t)=0, a.s., i=1,2,3.
(Ⅱ) If ˉb1<0,ˉb2>0 and ˉb3<0, then y1 and y3 become extinct and y2 is persistent in the mean, i.e. limt→+∞t−1∫t0y2(s)ds=h2ˉb2/f2, a.s.
(III) If ˉb1<0,ˉb2<0 and ˉb3>0, then y1 and y2 become extinct and y3 is persistent in the mean, i.e. limt→+∞t−1∫t0y3(s)ds=h3ˉb3/f3, a.s.
(IV) If ˉb1>0,ˉb2<0 and ˉb3<0, then y2 and y3 become extinct and y1 is persistent in the mean, i.e. limt→+∞t−1∫t0y1(s)ds=ˉb1/a, a.s.
(V) If ˉb1<0,ˉb2>0 and ˉb3>0, then y1 becomes extinct and y2 and y3 are persistent in the mean, i.e. limt→+∞t−1∫t0y2(s)ds=h2ˉb2/f2,limt→+∞t−1∫t0y3(s)ds=h3ˉb3/f3, a.s.
(VI) If ˉb1>0,ˉb2>0 and ˉb3<0, then y3 becomes extinct, and
(i) If ˉb1c2<ˉb2f2, then y1 becomes extinct and y2 is persistent in the mean, i.e. limt→+∞t−1∫t0y2(s)ds=h2ˉb2/f2, a.s.
(ii) If ˉb1c2>ˉb2f2, then limt→+∞t−1∫t0y1(s)ds=ˉb1/a−c2ˉb2/af2,
limt→+∞t−1∫t0y2(s)h2+y1(s)ds=ˉb2/f2, a.s.
(VII) If ˉb1>0,ˉb2<0 and ˉb3>0, then y2 becomes extinct, and
(i) If ˉb1c3<ˉb3f3, then y1 becomes extinct and y3 is persistent in the mean, i.e. limt→+∞t−1∫t0y3(s)ds=h3ˉb3/f3, a.s.
(ii) If ˉb1c3>ˉb3f3, then limt→+∞t−1∫t0y1(s)ds=ˉb1/a−c3ˉb3/af3,
limt→+∞t−1∫t0y3(s)h3+y1(s)ds=ˉb3/f3, a.s.
(VIII) If ˉb1>0,ˉb2>0 and ˉb3>0, then,
(i) If ˉb1<c2f2ˉb2+c3f3ˉb3, then y1 becomes extinct and y2 and y3 are persistent in the mean, i.e. limt→+∞t−1∫t0y2(s)ds=h2ˉb2/f2, limt→+∞t−1∫t0y3(s)ds=h3ˉb3/f3, a.s.
(ii) If ˉb1>c2f2ˉb2+c3f3ˉb3, then limt→+∞t−1∫t0y1(s)ds=ˉb1/a−c2ˉb2/af2−c3ˉb3/af3, limt→+∞t−1∫t0y2(s)h2+y1(s)ds=ˉb2/f2, limt→+∞t−1∫t0y3(s)h3+y1(s)ds=ˉb3/f3, a.s.
Proof. Applying Itô's formula to model (1.3) gives
dlny1(t)=(b1(t)+(˜r10−r10)e−α1t−ay1(t)−c2y2(t)h2+y1(t)−c3y3(t)h3+y1(t))dt+σ1(t)dB1(t),dlny2(t)=(b2(t)+(˜r20−r20)e−α2t−f2y2(t)h2+y1(t))dt+σ2(t)dB2(t),dlny3(t)=(b3(t)+(˜r30−r30)e−α3t−f3y3(t)h3+y1(t))dt+σ3(t)dB3(t). |
As a consequence,
lny1(t)−lny1(0)=∫t0b1(s)ds−˜r10−r10α1(e−α1t−1)−a∫t0y1(s)ds−c2∫t0y2(s)h2+y1(s)ds−c3∫t0y3(s)h3+y1(s)ds+∫t0σ1(s)dB1(s), | (2.19) |
lny2(t)−lny2(0)=∫t0b2(s)ds−˜r20−r20α2(e−α2t−1)−f2∫t0y2(s)h2+y1(s)ds+∫t0σ2(s)dB2(s), | (2.20) |
lny3(t)−lny3(0)=∫t0b3(s)ds−˜r30−r30α3(e−α3t−1)−f3∫t0y3(s)h3+y1(s)ds+∫t0σ3(s)dB3(s). | (2.21) |
First, let us prove (Ⅰ), we derive from (2.19) that, for sufficiently large t,
t−1lny1(t)y1(0)≤ˉb1+ε+t−1∫t0σ1(s)dB1(s)−˜r10−r10tα1(e−α1t−1). | (2.22) |
Note that limt→+∞t−1∫t0σ1(s)dB1(s)=0 and ˉb1+ε<0, thus limt→+∞y1(t)=0, a.s. In the same way, ˉb2<0 means that limt→+∞y2(t)=0, a.s., ˉb3<0 means that limt→+∞y3(t)=0, a.s.
(Ⅱ). Since ˉb1<0, ˉb3<0, we then deduce from (Ⅰ) that limt→+∞y1(t)=0,limt→+∞y3(t)=0, a.s. Then for sufficiently large t,
lny2(t)≤(ˉb2+2ε)t−f2h2+ε∫t0y2(s)ds+∫t0σ2(s)dB2(s), | (2.23) |
lny2(t)≥(ˉb2−2ε)t−f2h2−ε∫t0y2(s)ds+∫t0σ2(s)dB2(s). | (2.24) |
Making use of Lemma 3 to (2.23) and (2.24) respectively, we obtain
lim supt→+∞t−1∫t0y2(s)ds≤(h2+ε)(ˉb2+2ε)f2,lim inft→+∞t−1∫t0y2(s)ds≥(h2−ε)(ˉb2−2ε)f2. |
Therefore, from the arbitrariness of ε, we can derive that limt→+∞t−1∫t0y2(s)ds=h2ˉb2/f2, a.s.
The proof of (Ⅲ) and (Ⅳ) is similar to that of (Ⅱ), thus is omitted here.
Now let us prove (Ⅴ). According to ˉb1<0, we have limt→+∞y1(t)=0. The proof is similar to (Ⅱ), so here is omitted.
(Ⅵ). First of all, ˉb3<0 implies that limt→+∞y3(t)=0, a.s.
(ⅰ) Compute that (2.19)×f2−(2.20)×c2, then we get
f2t−1lny1(t)y1(0)=c2t−1lny2(t)y2(0)+t−1f2∫t0b1(s)ds−t−1c2∫t0b2(s)ds−˜r10−r10α1t(e−α1t−1)f2+˜r20−r20α2t(e−α2t−1)c2−af2t−1∫t0y1(s)ds−f2c3t−1∫t0y3(s)h3+y1(s)ds+f2t−1∫t0σ1(s)dB1(s)−c2t−1∫t0σ2(s)dB2(s)≤c2t−1lny2(t)y2(0)+t−1f2∫t0b1(s)ds−t−1c2∫t0b2(s)ds−˜r10−r10α1t(e−α1t−1)f2+˜r20−r20α2t(e−α2t−1)c2−af2t−1∫t0y1(s)ds+f2t−1∫t0σ1(s)dB1(s)−c2t−1∫t0σ2(s)dB2(s). | (2.25) |
In view of Lemma 4, for any ε>0, there exists a T>0 such that for t>T, we can see that
c2t−1lny2(t)y2(0)≤ε/4,f2t−1lny1(0)≤ε/4,˜r20−r20α2t(e−α2t−1)c2−˜r10−r10α1t(e−α1t−1)f2≤ε/4,f2t−1∫t0σ1(s)dB1(s)−c2t−1∫t0σ2(s)dB2(s)≤ε/4,t−1f2∫t0b1(s)ds−t−1c2∫t0b2(s)ds≤f2ˉb1−c2ˉb2+f2ε+c2ε. |
As a consequence, for t>T,
t−1f2lny1(t)≤(f2+c2+1)ε+f2ˉb1−c2ˉb2. | (2.26) |
Let ε be sufficiently small such that 0<ε<c2ˉb2−ˉb1f2f2+c2+1. Consequently, limt→+∞y1(t)=0. The proof of limt→+∞t−1∫t0y2(s)ds=h2ˉb2f2 is similar to that of (Ⅱ) and here is omitted.
(ⅱ) It follows from (2.20) that
t−1lny2(t)−t−1lny2(0)=t−1∫t0b2(s)ds−˜r20−r20α2t(e−α2t−1)−f2t−1∫t0y2(s)h2+y1(s)ds+t−1∫t0σ2(s)dB2(s). | (2.27) |
Making use of Lemma 4 and limt→+∞t−1∫t0σ2(s)dB2(s)=0, we can obtain
limt→+∞t−1∫t0y2(s)h2+y1(s)ds=ˉb2f2. | (2.28) |
Then, for any ε>0, there is T>0 such that for t>T,
−c2ˉb2f2−ε≤−˜r10−r10α1t(e−α1t−1)−c2t−1∫t0y2(s)h2+y1(s)ds+t−1lny1(0)−c3t−1∫t0y3(s)h3+y1(s)ds≤−c2ˉb2f2+ε. | (2.29) |
Substitute (2.29) into (2.19), and we can get that, for t≥T,
t−1lny1(t)≥ˉb1−c2ˉb2f2−2ε−at−1∫t0y1(s)ds+t−1∫t0σ1(s)dB1(s),t−1lny1(t)≤ˉb1−c2ˉb2f2+2ε−at−1∫t0y1(s)ds+t−1∫t0σ1(s)dB1(s). |
Let ε be sufficiently small such that 0<ε<(ˉb1−c2ˉb2/f2)/2. Thanks to Lemma 3, we have
ˉb1a−c2ˉb2af2−2εa≤lim inft→+∞t−1∫t0y1(s)ds≤lim supt→+∞t−1∫t0y1(s)ds≤ˉb1a−c2ˉb2af2+2εa. |
We then derive from the arbitrariness of ε that limt→+∞t−1∫t0y1(s)ds=ˉb1/a−c2ˉb2/(af2).
The proof of (Ⅶ) is similar to that of (Ⅵ), so it is omitted here.
Now let us proof (Ⅷ).
(ⅰ) Compute that (2.19)×f2f3−(2.20)×f3c2−(2.21)×f2c3,
f2f3t−1lny1(t)y1(0)=f3c2t−1lny2(t)y2(0)+f2c3t−1lny3(t)y3(0)+f2f3t−1∫t0b1(s)ds−t−1c2f3∫t0b2(s)ds−c3f2t−1∫t0b3(s)ds−f2f3˜r10−r10α1t(e−α1t−1)+c2f3˜r20−r20α2t(e−α2t−1)+c3f2˜r30−r30α3t(e−α3t−1)−af2f3t−1∫t0y1(s)ds+f2f3t−1∫t0σ1(s)dB1(s)−c2f3t−1∫t0σ2(s)dB2(s)−c3f2t−1∫t0σ3(s)dB3(s). |
In view of Lemma 4, for any ε>0, there exists a T>0 such that for t>T, we can see that
f3c2t−1lny2(t)y2(0)+f2c3t−1lny3(t)y3(0)≤ε/4,f2f3t−1lny1(0)≤ε/4,−f2f3˜r10−r10α1t(e−α1t−1)+c2f3˜r20−r20α2t(e−α2t−1)−c3f2˜r30−r30α1t(e−α1t−1)≤ε/4,f2f3t−1∫t0σ1(s)dB1(s)−c2f3t−1∫t0σ2(s)dB2(s)−c3f2t−1∫t0σ3(s)dB3(s)≤ε/4,t−1f2f3∫t0b1(s)ds−t−1f3c2∫t0b2(s)ds−t−1c3f2∫t0b3(s)ds≤f2f3ˉb1−c2f3ˉb2−c3f2ˉb3+(f2f3+c2f3+c3f2)ε. |
As a consequence, for t>T,
t−1f2f3lny1(t)≤(1+f2f3+c2f3+c3f2)ε+f2f3ˉb1−c2f3ˉb2−c3f2ˉb3. | (2.30) |
Let ε be sufficiently small such that 0<ε<c3f2ˉb3+c2f3ˉb2−f2f3ˉb11+f2f3+c2f3+c3f2, we have limt→+∞y1(t)=0. According to the proof of (Ⅱ), we derive that
limt→+∞t−1∫t0y2(s)ds=h2ˉb2f2. |
Similar to the proof of (Ⅱ), we can obtain
limt→+∞t−1∫t0y3(s)ds=h3ˉb3f3. |
(ⅱ) It follows from (2.20), (2.21), Lemma 4 and limt→+∞t−1∫t0σi(s)dBi(s)=0,i=1,2,3 that
limt→+∞t−1∫t0y2(s)h2+y1(s)ds=ˉb2f2,limt→+∞t−1∫t0y3(s)h3+y1(s)ds=ˉb3f3. |
Then, for any ε>0, there is T>0 such that for t>T,
−c2ˉb2f2−c3ˉb3f3−ε≤−˜r10−r10α1t(e−α1t−1)−c2t−1∫t0y2(s)h2+y1(s)ds−c3t−1∫t0y3(s)h3+y1(s)ds+t−1lny1(0)≤−c2ˉb2f2−c3ˉb3f3+ε. | (2.31) |
Substitute (2.31) into (2.19), we can get that, for t≥T,
t−1lny1(t)≥ˉb1−c2ˉb2f2−c3ˉb3f3−2ε−at−1∫t0y1(t)ds+t−1∫t0σ1(s)dB1(s),t−1lny1(t)≤ˉb1−c2ˉb2f2−c3ˉb3f3+2ε−at−1∫t0y1(t)ds+t−1∫t0σ1(s)dB1(s). |
Let ε be sufficiently small such that 0<ε<(ˉb1−c2ˉb2/f2−c3ˉb3/f3)/2. Thanks to Lemma 3, we have
ˉb1a−c2ˉb2af2−c3ˉb3af3−2εa≤lim inft→+∞t−1∫t0y1(s)ds≤lim supt→+∞t−1∫t0y1(s)ds≤ˉb1a−c2ˉb2af2−c3ˉb3af3+2εa. |
We then derive from the arbitrariness of ε that limt→+∞t−1∫t0y1(s)ds=ˉb1/a−c2ˉb2/(af2)−c3ˉb3/(af3).
The proof of Theorem 1 is completed.
Now we use the Milstein method offered in [36] to verify the theoretical results numerically (here we only provide the functions of ξ2i since the functions of αi can be proffered analogously).
In Figure 1-4, choose r10=0.5, r20=0.5, r30=0.3, ˜r10=0.3, ˜r20=0.25, ˜r30=0.2, r11=r21=r31=0.9, a=0.25, c2=0.36, c3=0.4, f2=0.5, f3=0.47, h2=h3=1, α1=0.31, α2=0.35, α3=0.42, γ=2, k1=0.2, k2=0.26 k3=0.21, l1=0.8, l2=0.7, l3=0.7, h=0.9, q=0.5. The only difference between conditions of Figure 1-4 is that the values of ξ21, ξ22 and ξ23 are different.
(Ⅰ) In Figure 1, we choose ξ21=0.55, ξ22=0.9 and ξ23=0.5. Then ˉb1=−0.006<0, ˉb2=−0.2357<0, ˉb3=−0.0726<0. According to (Ⅰ) in Theorem 1, y1, y2 and y3 die out.
Figure 1 confirms these.
(Ⅱ) In Figure 2, we choose ξ21=0.55, ξ22=0.16 and ξ23=0.5. Then ˉb1=−0.006<0, ˉb2=0.2929>0, ˉb3=−0.0726<0. On the basis of (Ⅱ) in Theorem 1, y1 and y3 die out and
limt→+∞t−1∫t0y2(s)ds=h2ˉb2f2=0.5857. |
See Figure 2.
(Ⅲ) In Figure 3, we choose ξ21=0.15, ξ22=0.9 and ξ23=0.5. Then ˉb1=0.2915>0, ˉb2=−0.2357<0, ˉb3=−0.0726<0. On the basis of (Ⅳ) in Theorem 1, y2 and y3 die out and
limt→+∞t−1∫t0y1(s)ds=ˉb1a=1.2661. |
See Figure 3.
(Ⅳ) In Figure 4, we choose ξ21=0.55, ξ22=0.16 and ξ23=0.09. Then ˉb1=−0.006<0, ˉb2=ˉb2=0.2929>0, ˉb3=0.1714>0. On the basis of (Ⅴ) in Theorem 1, y1 dies out and
limt→+∞t−1∫t0y2(s)ds=h2ˉb2f2=0.5857,limt→+∞t−1∫t0y3(s)ds=h3ˉb3f3=0.3647. |
Figure 4 confirms these.
In Figures 5 and 6, we choose r10=0.6, r20=0.8, r30=0.3, ˜r10=0.3, ˜r20=0.25, ˜r30=0.2, r11=r21=r31=0.9, a=0.25, c2=0.36, c3=0.4, f2=0.5, f3=0.47, h2=h3=1, α1=0.81, α2=0.65, α3=0.42, γ=2, k1=0.2, k2=0.23 k3=0.45, l1=0.4, l2=0.8, l3=0.7, h=0.9, q=0.5. The only difference between conditions of Figures 5 and 6 is that the values of ξ21, ξ22 and ξ23 are different.
(Ⅴ) In Figure 5, we choose ξ21=0.5, ξ22=0.06 and ξ23=0.5. Then ˉb1=0.3207>0, ˉb2=0.7050>0, ˉb3=−0.1583<0 and ˉb1<c2ˉb2/f2=0.5076. On the basis of (Ⅵ) in Theorem 1, y1 and y3 die out and
limt→+∞t−1∫t0y2(s)ds=h2ˉb2f2=1.4101. |
See Figure 5.
(Ⅵ) In Figure 6, we choose ξ21=0.5, ξ22=0.86 and ξ23=0.5. Then ˉb1=0.3207>0, ˉb2=0.3974>0, ˉb3=−0.1583<0 and ˉb1>c2ˉb2/f2=0.2861. On the basis of (Ⅵ) in Theorem 1, y3 dies out and
limt→+∞t−1∫t0y1(s)ds=ˉb1a−c2ˉb2af2=0.1383,limt→+∞t−1∫t0y2(s)h2+y1(s)ds=ˉb2f2=0.7947. |
See Figure 6.
In Figures 7 and 8, we choose r10=0.6, r20=0.6, r30=0.4, ˜r10=0.3, ˜r20=0.15, ˜r30=0.3, r11=r21=r31=0.1, a=0.25, c2=0.36, c3=0.4, f2=0.75, f3=0.77, h2=h3=1, α1=0.61, α2=0.85, α3=0.89, γ=2, k1=0.32, k2=0.05 k3=0.25, l1=0.9, l2=0.7, l3=0.8, h=0.9, q=0.6. The only difference between conditions of Figures 7 and 8 is that the values of ξ21, ξ22 and ξ23 are different.
(Ⅶ) In Figure 7, we choose ξ21=0.5, ξ22=0.006 and ξ23=0.009. Then ˉb1=0.3832>0, ˉb2=0.5959>0, ˉb3=0.3871>0 and ˉb1<c2ˉb2/f2+c3ˉb3/f3=0.4871. On the basis of (Ⅷ) in Theorem 1, y1 dies out and
limt→+∞t−1∫t0y2(s)ds=h2ˉb2f2=0.7945,limt→+∞t−1∫t0y3(s)ds=h3ˉb3f3=0.5027. |
See Figure 7.
(Ⅷ) In Figure 8, we choose ξ21=0.0002, ξ22=0.006 and ξ23=0.009. Then ˉb1=0.5881>0, ˉb2=0.5959>0, ˉb3=0.3871>0 and ˉb1>c2ˉb2/f2+c3ˉb3/f3=0.4871. On the basis of (Ⅷ) in Theorem 1, we have
limt→+∞t−1∫t0y1(s)ds=ˉb1a−c2ˉb2af2−c3ˉb3af3=0.4040,limt→+∞t−1∫t0y2(s)h2+y1(s)ds=ˉb2f2=0.7945,limt→+∞t−1∫t0y3(s)h3+y1(s)ds=ˉb3f3=0.5027. |
See Figure 8.
In Figures 9 and 10, we choose r10=0.2, r20=0.1, r30=0.2, ˜r10=0.1, ˜r20=0.05, ˜r30=0.13, r11=2, r21=1, r31=2.6, a=0.5, c2=0.2, c3=0.2, f2=0.95, f3=0.97, h2=h3=1, α1=0.81, α2=0.86, α3=0.8, k1=0.11, k2=0.12 k3=0.125, l1=0.6, l2=0.7, l3=0.7, h=0.9, q=0.12, ξ21=0.02, ξ22=0.006, ξ23=0.009. The only difference between conditions of Figures 9 and 10 is that the values of γ are different.
(Ⅸ) In Figure 9, we choose γ=4. Then ˉb1=0.1816>0, ˉb2=0.0925>0, ˉb3=0.1817>0 and ˉb1>c2ˉb2/f2+c3ˉb3/f3=0.0569. On the basis of (Ⅷ) in Theorem 1, we have
limt→+∞t−1∫t0y1(s)ds=ˉb1a−c2ˉb2af2−c3ˉb3af3=0.2493,limt→+∞t−1∫t0y2(s)h2+y1(s)ds=ˉb2f2=0.0974,limt→+∞t−1∫t0y3(s)h3+y1(s)ds=ˉb3f3=0.1873. |
See Figure 9.
In Figure 10, choose γ=0.23. Then ˉb1=−0.0187<0, ˉb2=−0.0011<0 and ˉb3=−0.0720<0. On the basis of (Ⅰ) in Theorem 1, y1, y2 and y3 die out.
See Figure 10.
By comparing Figure 9 with Figure 10, one can observe that with the decrease of toxicant impulsive period γ, species tends to die out.
In this paper, we take advantage of a mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to portray the random perturbations in the environment and assume that the toxicants are released in regular pulses. Based on the classical deterministic predator-prey model with modified Leslie-Gower Holling-type Ⅱ schemes, we present a three-species predator prey stochastic model with modified Leslie-Gower Holling-type Ⅱ schemes, and use more appropriate methods to describe random perturbations in the environment. We obtain sharp sufficient conditions for persistence in the mean and extinction for each species of model (1.4).
Theorem 1 has some interesting biological interpretations. By Theorem 1, we can see that each species is either extinct or persistent in the mean, relying on the sign of ˉbi(i=1,2,3), ˉb1f2−c2ˉb2, ˉb1f3−c3ˉb3, and f2f3ˉb1−c2f3ˉb2−c3f2ˉb3.
We note that the intensity of the perturbation ξ2i and the speed of reversion αi are two key parameters in the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Obviously,
dˉbidαi>0,d(ˉb1f2−c2ˉb2)dα1>0,d(ˉb1f2f3−c2f3ˉb2−c3f2ˉb3)dα1>0,d(ˉb1f3−c3ˉb3)dα1>0,d(ˉb1f2−c2ˉb2)dα2<0,d(ˉb1f2f3−c2f3ˉb2−c3f2ˉb3)dα2<0,d(ˉb1f3−c3ˉb3)dα3<0,d(ˉb1f2f3−c2f3ˉb2−c3f2ˉb3)dα3<0,dˉbidξ2i<0,d(ˉb1f2−c2ˉb2)dξ21<0,d(ˉb1f3−c3ˉb3)dξ21<0,d(ˉb1f2f3−c2f3ˉb2−c3f2ˉb3)dξ21<0,d(ˉb1f2−c2ˉb2)dξ22>0,d(ˉb1f2f3−c2f3ˉb2−c3f2ˉb3)dξ22>0,d(ˉb1f3−c3ˉb3)dξ23>0,d(ˉb1f2f3−c2f3ˉb2−c3f2ˉb3)dξ23>0. |
Therefore, with the increase of αi (respectively, ξ2i), species yi tends to be persistent (respectively, extinct), i=1,2,3. Furthermore, with the increase of α2 or α3 (respectively, ξ22 or ξ23), the prey population y1 tends to die out (respectively, be persistent) provided ˉbi>0,i=1,2,3.
Some interesting topics remain to be solved. For example, it would be interesting to dissect other random noises such as the telephone noise (see [37]), the Lˊevy noise (see [38]) or reaction diffusion (see [39]) etc. We leave these questions for future research.
The work is supported by National Science Foundation of China(No.11672326) and Scientific Research Project of Tianjin Municipal Education Commission (No.2019KJ131).
The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.
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