Computational simulations of the effects of social distancing interventions on the COVID-19 pandemic

Sarbaz H. A. Khoshnaw; Azhi Sabir Mohammed; Sarbaz H. A. Khoshnaw; Azhi Sabir Mohammed

doi:10.3934/bioeng.2022016

AIMS Bioengineering

2022, Volume 9, Issue 3: 239-251. doi: 10.3934/bioeng.2022016

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Research article

Computational simulations of the effects of social distancing interventions on the COVID-19 pandemic

Department of Mathematics, University of Raparin, Ranya, Kurdistan Region of Iraq

Received: 05 May 2022 Revised: 08 July 2022 Accepted: 25 July 2022 Published: 29 August 2022

The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has been considered as a global issue. Based on the reported cases and clinical data, there are still required international efforts and more preventative measures to control the pandemic more effectively. Physical contact between individuals plays an essential role in spreading the coronavirus more widely. Mathematical models with computational simulations are effective tools to study and discuss this virus and minimize its impact on society. These tools help to determine more relevant factors that influence the spread of the virus. In this work, we developed two computational tools by using the R package and Python to simulate the COVID-19 transmissions. Additionally, some computational simulations were investigated that provide critical questions about global control strategies and further interventions. Accordingly, there are some computational model results and control strategies. First, we identify the model critical factors that helps us to understand the key transmission elements. Model transmissions can significantly be changed for primary tracing with delay to isolation. Second, some types of interventions, including case isolation, no intervention, quarantine contacts and quarantine contacts together with contacts of contacts are analyzed and discussed. The results show that quarantining contacts is the best way of intervening to minimize the spread of the virus. Finally, the basic reproduction number R₀ is another important factor which provides a great role in understanding the transmission of the pandemic. Interestingly, the current computational simulations help us to pay more attention to critical model transmissions and minimize their impact on spreading this disease. They also help for further interventions and control strategies.
- infectious disease,
- COVID-19 pandemic,
- basic reproduction number R₀,
- computational simulations,
- networks
Citation: Sarbaz H. A. Khoshnaw, Azhi Sabir Mohammed. Computational simulations of the effects of social distancing interventions on the COVID-19 pandemic[J]. AIMS Bioengineering, 2022, 9(3): 239-251. doi: 10.3934/bioeng.2022016

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Abstract

The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has been considered as a global issue. Based on the reported cases and clinical data, there are still required international efforts and more preventative measures to control the pandemic more effectively. Physical contact between individuals plays an essential role in spreading the coronavirus more widely. Mathematical models with computational simulations are effective tools to study and discuss this virus and minimize its impact on society. These tools help to determine more relevant factors that influence the spread of the virus. In this work, we developed two computational tools by using the R package and Python to simulate the COVID-19 transmissions. Additionally, some computational simulations were investigated that provide critical questions about global control strategies and further interventions. Accordingly, there are some computational model results and control strategies. First, we identify the model critical factors that helps us to understand the key transmission elements. Model transmissions can significantly be changed for primary tracing with delay to isolation. Second, some types of interventions, including case isolation, no intervention, quarantine contacts and quarantine contacts together with contacts of contacts are analyzed and discussed. The results show that quarantining contacts is the best way of intervening to minimize the spread of the virus. Finally, the basic reproduction number R₀ is another important factor which provides a great role in understanding the transmission of the pandemic. Interestingly, the current computational simulations help us to pay more attention to critical model transmissions and minimize their impact on spreading this disease. They also help for further interventions and control strategies.

Acknowledgments

The authors extend their appreciation to the University of Raparin in the Kurdistan region of Iraq for providing a feasible research environment and motivational and encouraging behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic. We are also thankful to Dr. Abdulbasit Al-Talabani from Koya University for his valuable remarks and discussion during the study.

Conflict of interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Author contributions

Sarbaz Khoshnaw contributed to the conceptualization, validation, writing—review and editing and supervision. Azhi Mohammed contributed to the methodology, software, formal analysis, writing—original draft preparation and visualization. Both authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

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