Modelling and analysis of the HIV/AIDS epidemic with fast and slow asymptomatic infections in China from 2008 to 2021

Nawei Chen; Shenglong Chen; Xiaoyu Li; Zhiming Li; Nawei Chen; Shenglong Chen; Xiaoyu Li; Zhiming Li

doi:10.3934/mbe.2023919

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

2023, Volume 20, Issue 12: 20770-20794. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2023919

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Research article

Modelling and analysis of the HIV/AIDS epidemic with fast and slow asymptomatic infections in China from 2008 to 2021

College of Mathematics and System Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
Acadecmic Editor: Hao Wang

Received: 01 August 2023 Revised: 29 October 2023 Accepted: 30 October 2023 Published: 17 November 2023

The aim of this paper is to investigate the spread of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in China during 2008–2021. A new mathematical model is proposed to study the dynamics of HIV transmission with acute infection, fast asymptomatic infections, and slow asymptomatic infections. The basic reproduction number is obtained by the next-generation matrix method. A quantitative analysis of the model, including the local behavior, global behavior, and permanence, is performed. Numerical simulations are presented to enhance the results of these analyses. The behavior or the model's parameters are estimated from real data. A sensitivity analysis shows that the proportion of asymptomatic infections co-infected with other diseases significantly affects the basic reproduction number. We further analyze the impact of implementing single and multiple measure(s) in parallel with the epidemic. The study results conclude that multiple measures are more effective in controlling the spread of AIDS compared to just one. The HIV epidemic can be effectively curbed by reducing the contact rate between fast asymptomatic infected individuals and susceptible populations, increasing the early diagnosis and screening of HIV-infected individuals co-infected with other diseases, and treating co-infected patients promptly.
- HIV/AIDS,
- asymptomatic infection,
- global stability,
- sensitivity analysis
Citation: Nawei Chen, Shenglong Chen, Xiaoyu Li, Zhiming Li. Modelling and analysis of the HIV/AIDS epidemic with fast and slow asymptomatic infections in China from 2008 to 2021[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2023, 20(12): 20770-20794. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2023919

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Abstract

The aim of this paper is to investigate the spread of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in China during 2008–2021. A new mathematical model is proposed to study the dynamics of HIV transmission with acute infection, fast asymptomatic infections, and slow asymptomatic infections. The basic reproduction number is obtained by the next-generation matrix method. A quantitative analysis of the model, including the local behavior, global behavior, and permanence, is performed. Numerical simulations are presented to enhance the results of these analyses. The behavior or the model's parameters are estimated from real data. A sensitivity analysis shows that the proportion of asymptomatic infections co-infected with other diseases significantly affects the basic reproduction number. We further analyze the impact of implementing single and multiple measure(s) in parallel with the epidemic. The study results conclude that multiple measures are more effective in controlling the spread of AIDS compared to just one. The HIV epidemic can be effectively curbed by reducing the contact rate between fast asymptomatic infected individuals and susceptible populations, increasing the early diagnosis and screening of HIV-infected individuals co-infected with other diseases, and treating co-infected patients promptly.

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