Modeling COVID-19 transmission dynamics incorporating media coverage and vaccination

Xiaojing Wang; Yu Liang; Jiahui Li; Maoxing Liu; Xiaojing Wang; Yu Liang; Jiahui Li; Maoxing Liu

doi:10.3934/mbe.2023456

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

2023, Volume 20, Issue 6: 10392-10403. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2023456

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Research article Special Issues

Modeling COVID-19 transmission dynamics incorporating media coverage and vaccination

School of Science, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing 102616, China

Received: 01 February 2023 Revised: 15 March 2023 Accepted: 22 March 2023 Published: 06 April 2023

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused widespread concern around the world. In order to study the impact of media coverage and vaccination on the spread of COVID-19, we establish an SVEAIQR infectious disease model, and fit the important parameters such as transmission rate, isolation rate and vaccine efficiency based on the data from Shanghai Municipal Health Commission and the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China. Meanwhile, the control reproduction number and the final size are derived. Moreover, through sensitivity analysis by PRCC (partial rank correlation coefficient), we discuss the effects of both the behavior change constant $ k $ according to media coverage and the vaccine efficiency $ \varepsilon $ on the transmission of COVID-19. Numerical explorations of the model suggest that during the outbreak of the epidemic, media coverage can reduce the final size by about 0.26 times. Besides that, comparing with $ 50\% $ vaccine efficiency, when the vaccine efficiency reaches $ 90\% $, the peak value of infected people decreases by about 0.07 times. In addition, we simulate the impact of media coverage on the number of infected people in the case of vaccination or non-vaccination. Accordingly, the management departments should pay attention to the impact of vaccination and media coverage.
- COVID-19,
- media coverage,
- vaccination,
- final size,
- reproduction number
Citation: Xiaojing Wang, Yu Liang, Jiahui Li, Maoxing Liu. Modeling COVID-19 transmission dynamics incorporating media coverage and vaccination[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2023, 20(6): 10392-10403. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2023456

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Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused widespread concern around the world. In order to study the impact of media coverage and vaccination on the spread of COVID-19, we establish an SVEAIQR infectious disease model, and fit the important parameters such as transmission rate, isolation rate and vaccine efficiency based on the data from Shanghai Municipal Health Commission and the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China. Meanwhile, the control reproduction number and the final size are derived. Moreover, through sensitivity analysis by PRCC (partial rank correlation coefficient), we discuss the effects of both the behavior change constant $ k $ according to media coverage and the vaccine efficiency $ \varepsilon $ on the transmission of COVID-19. Numerical explorations of the model suggest that during the outbreak of the epidemic, media coverage can reduce the final size by about 0.26 times. Besides that, comparing with $ 50\% $ vaccine efficiency, when the vaccine efficiency reaches $ 90\% $, the peak value of infected people decreases by about 0.07 times. In addition, we simulate the impact of media coverage on the number of infected people in the case of vaccination or non-vaccination. Accordingly, the management departments should pay attention to the impact of vaccination and media coverage.

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