Optimal strategic pandemic control: human mobility and travel restriction

Wentao Hu; Yufeng Shi; Cuixia Chen; Ze Chen; Wentao Hu; Yufeng Shi; Cuixia Chen; Ze Chen

doi:10.3934/mbe.2021468

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

2021, Volume 18, Issue 6: 9525-9562. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2021468

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Optimal strategic pandemic control: human mobility and travel restriction

1.
Institute for Financial Studies and School of Mathematics, Shandong University, Shandanan Road, Jinan 250100, China
2.
Shandong Big Data Research Association, Jinan 250100, China
3.
Hebei Finance University, Baoding City, Hebei 071051, China
4.
School of Finance, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
5.
China Insurance Institute, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
6.
China Financial Policy Research Center, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China

Academic Editor: Shi Zhao

Received: 24 August 2021 Accepted: 11 October 2021 Published: 02 November 2021

This paper presents a model for finding optimal pandemic control policy considering cross-region human mobility. We extend the baseline susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) epidemiology model by including the net human mobility from a severely-impacted region to a mildly-affected region. The strategic optimal mitigation policy combining testing and lockdown in each region is then obtained with the goal of minimizing economic cost under the constraint of limited resources. We parametrize the model using the data of the COVID-19 pandemic and show that the optimal response strategy and mitigation outcome greatly rely on the mitigation duration, available resources, and cross-region human mobility. Furthermore, we discuss the economic impact of travel restriction policies through a quantitative analysis.
- pandemic mitigation,
- human mobility,
- SIR model,
- COVID-19
Citation: Wentao Hu, Yufeng Shi, Cuixia Chen, Ze Chen. Optimal strategic pandemic control: human mobility and travel restriction[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2021, 18(6): 9525-9562. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2021468

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Abstract

This paper presents a model for finding optimal pandemic control policy considering cross-region human mobility. We extend the baseline susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) epidemiology model by including the net human mobility from a severely-impacted region to a mildly-affected region. The strategic optimal mitigation policy combining testing and lockdown in each region is then obtained with the goal of minimizing economic cost under the constraint of limited resources. We parametrize the model using the data of the COVID-19 pandemic and show that the optimal response strategy and mitigation outcome greatly rely on the mitigation duration, available resources, and cross-region human mobility. Furthermore, we discuss the economic impact of travel restriction policies through a quantitative analysis.

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