Citation: Omar El Deeb, Maya Jalloul. The dynamics of COVID-19 spread: evidence from Lebanon[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2020, 17(5): 5618-5632. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2020302
[1] | WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19, World Health Organization, 2020. Available from: https://who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19-11-march-2020. |
[2] | COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic 2020, Worldometer, 2020. Available from: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus. |
[3] | I. Bremmer, C. Kupchan, S. Rosenstein, The New York Times, 2020. Available from: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/opinion/coronavirus-sweden-herd-immunity.html. |
[4] | Q. Li, X. Guan, P. Wu, X. Wang, L. Zhou, Y. Tong, et al., Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia, N. Engl. J. Med., 382 (2020), 1199-1207. |
[5] | T. Zhou, Q. Liu, Z. Yang, J. Lao, K. Yang, W. Bai, et al., Preliminary prediction of the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV, J. Evid. Based Med., 13 (2020), 3-7. |
[6] | K. Biswas, A. Khaleque, P. Sen, Covid-19 spread: Reproduction of data and prediction using a SIR model on Euclidean network 2020, arXiv, arXiv:2003.07063. |
[7] | C. Yang, J. Yang, A mathematical model for the novel coronavirus epidemic in Wuhan, China, Math. Biosci. Eng., 17 (2020), 2708-2724. |
[8] | D. Fanelli, F. Piazza, Analysis and forecast of COVID-19 spreading in China, Italy and France, Chaos Soliton. Fract., 134 (2020), 109761. |
[9] | J. Taubenberger, D. Morens, 1918 Influenza: the Mother of All Pandemics, Emerging Infect. Dis., 12 (2006), 15-22. |
[10] | H. Philips, The Recent Wave of Spanish Flu Historiography, Soc. Hist. Med., 27 (2014), 789-808. |
[11] | Lebanon to default on debt for first time amid financial crisis, The Guardian, 2020. Available from: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/07/lebanon-to-default-on-debt-for-first-time-amid-financial-crisis. |
[12] | Ministry of Public Health Republic of Lebanon, 2020. Available from: https://www.moph.gov.lb/en. |
[13] | A. Tuite, I. Bogoch, R. Sherbo, A. Watts, D. Fisman, K. Khan, Estimation of COVID-2019 burden and potential for international dissemination of infection from Iran, preprint, 2020. Available from: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.24.20027375v1. |
[14] | Z. Zhuang, S. Zhao, Q. Lin, P. Cao, Y. Lou, L. Yang, et al., Preliminary estimation of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Iran: A modelling analysis based on overseas cases and air travel data, Int. J. Infect. Dis., 94 (2020), 29-31. |
[15] | D. Gavlak, Latest in a series of crises: Lebanon grapples with COVID-19, National Catholic Reporter, 2020. Available from: https://www.ncronline.org/news/world/latest-series-crises-lebanon-grapples-covid-19. |
[16] | Disaster Risk Management Unit., 2020. Available from: http://drm.pcm.gov.lb. |
[17] | S. Bocaletti, V. Latora, Y. Moreno, M. Chavez, D. Hwang, Complex networks: structure and dynamics, Phys. Rep., 424 (2006), 175-308. |
[18] | R. Pastor-Satorras, C. Castellano, P. Van Mieghem, A. Vespignani, Epidemic processes in complex networks, Rev. Mod. Phys., 87 (2015), 925-979. |
[19] | M. Batista, fitVirusCOVID19, MIT Central File Exchange, 2020. Available from: https://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/74658-fitviruscovid19. |
[20] | J. Lou, When Will COVID-19 End? Data-Driven Prediction, Data-Driven Innovation Lab, 2020. Available from: https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg/when-will-covid-19-end/. |
[21] | C. Sun, Y. Hsieh, Global analysis of an SEIR model with varying population size and vaccination, Appl. Math. Model., 34 (2010), 2685-2697. |
[22] | D. Helbing, D. Brockmann, T. Chadefaux, K. Donnay, U. Blanke, O. Woolley-Meza, et al., Saving Human Lives: What Complexity Science and Information Systems can Contribute, J. Stat. Phys., 158 (2015), 735-781. doi: 10.1007/s10955-014-1024-9 |
[23] | R. Anderson, H. Heesterbeek, D. Klinkenberg, D. Hollingsworth, How will countrybased mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic?, Lancet, 395 (2020), 931- 934. |
[24] | B. McCloskey, A. Zumla, G. Ippolito, L. Blumberg, P. Arbon, A. Cicero, et al., Mass gathering events and reducing further global spread of COVID-19: a political and public health dilemma, Lancet, 395 (2020), 1096-1099. |
[25] | M. Kraemer, C. Yang, B. Gutierrez, C. Wu, B. Klein, D. Pigott, et al., The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China, Science, 368 (2020), 493-497. |
[26] | A. Atkeson, What will be the economic impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough estimates of disease scenarios, National Bureau of Economic Research, 2020. Available from: https://www.nber.org/papers/w26867. |
[27] | L. Graef, L. Wang, J. Karsai, Global Dynamics of a SEIR model with varying total population size, Math. Bio., 160-2 (1999), 191-213. |
[28] | L. Peng, W. Yang, D. Zhang, C. Zhuge, L. Hong, Epidemic analysis of COVID-19 in China by dynamical modeling, preprint, arXiv:2002.06563. |
[29] | M. Perc, N. Miksic, M. Slavinec, A. Stozer, Forecasting COVID-19, Front. Phys., 8 (2020), 127. |
[30] | H. Ritchie, E. Ortiz-Ospina, D. Beltekian, E. Mathieu, J. Hasell, B. Macdonald, et al., Statistics and Research Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), Our World in Data, 2020. Available from: https: //www.ourworldindata.org/coronavirus. |
[31] | W. Kermack, A. McKendrick, A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics, Proc. R. Soc. A, 115 (1927), 700-721. |
[32] | R. May, R. Anderson, Infectious diseases of humans: dynamics and control, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1994. |
[33] | V. Capasso, Mathematical Structure of Epidemic Systems, Springer, Berlin, 1993.34. E. Vynnycky, R. White, An Introduction to Infectious Disease Modelling, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2010. |
[34] | 35. H. Wang, Z. Wang, Y. Dong, R. Chang, C. Xu, X. Yu, et al., Phase-adjusted estimation of the number of Coronavirus Disease 2019 cases in Wuhan, China, Cell Discov., 6 (2020), 10. |
[35] | 36. Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), World Health Organization, 2020. Available from: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf. |
[36] | 37. A. Remuzzi, G. Remuzzi, COVID-19 and Italy: what next?, Lancet, 395 (2020), 1225-1228. |
[37] | 38. S. Sanche, Y. Lin, C. Xu, E. Romero-Severson, N. Hengartner, R. Ke, High contagiousness and rapid spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, Emerg. Infect. Dis., 26 (2020), 1470-1477. |
[38] | 39. B. Tang, X. Wang, Q. Li, N. Bragazzi, S. Tang, Y. Xiao, et al., Estimation of the Transmission Risk of the 2019-nCoV and Its Implication for Public Health Interventions, J. Clin. Med., 9 (2020), 462. |
[39] | 40. J. Ma, J. Dushoff, B. Bloker, D. Earn, Estimating initial epidemic growth rates, Bull. Math. Biol., 76 (2014), 245-260. |
[40] | 41. Y. Liu, A. Gayle, A. Wilder-Smith, J. Rocklov, The reproductive number of COVID-19 is higher compared to SARS coronavirus, J. Travel Med., 27 (2020), taaa021. |
[41] | 42. N. Houssari, Lebanon confirms first coronavirus case as death toll hits 4 in Iran, Arab News, |
[42] | 2020. Available from: https://www.arabnews.com/node/1631166/middle-eastr. |
[43] | S. Momtazmanesg, H. Ochs, L. Uddin, M. Perc, J. Routes, D.N. Vieiera, et al., All together to Fight COVID-19, Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg., 102-6 (2020), 1181-1183. |
[44] | N. Akpan, Why a coronavirus vaccine could take way longer than a year, National Geographic, 2020. Available from: https://nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/04/why-coronavirus-vaccine-could-take-way-longer-than-a-year. |
[45] | N. Lurie, M. Saville, R. Hatchett, J. Halton, Developing Covid-19 Vaccines at Pandemic Speed, N. Engl. J. Med., 382 (2020) 1969-1973. |