The effect of cigarette smoking on lung cancer evolution

Ahmed Nagah; Asmaa Amer; Xinan Zhang; Ahmed Nagah; Asmaa Amer; Xinan Zhang

doi:10.3934/mbe.2019390

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

2019, Volume 16, Issue 6: 7771-7788. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2019390

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The effect of cigarette smoking on lung cancer evolution

1.
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Central China Normal University, Wuhan, 430079, P. R. China
2.
Mathematics Department, Faculty of Science, Zagazig University, Egypt
3.
Mathematics Department, Faculty of Science, Menoufia University, Egypt

Received: 07 July 2019 Accepted: 08 August 2019 Published: 23 August 2019

The aim of this paper is to elucidate the risk of lung carcinogenesis from cigarette smoking among current and former smokers. To achieve this goal, we have set up a stochastic three-stage model to fit the data of Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program besides the data set of smoking derived from the Nurses' Health Study cohort of females (NHS) and the Health Professionals Follow up Study cohort of men (HPFS). The calculations are performed by considering both mutation and clonal expansion rates as parameters in each compartment. For current smokers, our findings show that cigarette smoking has more significant impact on the mutation rates of cells than the clonal expansion rates of premalignant cells among men and women. In particular, for male patients, cigarette smoking affects the mutation in normal cells and the transformation from premalignant cells to malignant ones in the optimal model. In addition, cigarette smoking induces only the initial mutation rates in normal cells among American women. For current and former smokers, cigarette smoking stimulates only the clonal expansion rate of the first premalignant cells in both sexes. However, we find that the impact of cigarette smoking is minimal in former smokers who have stopped smoking for over ten years among men and women in US.
- lung cancer,
- cigarette smoking,
- multi-stage models,
- clonal expansion,
- chi-square test
Citation: Ahmed Nagah, Asmaa Amer, Xinan Zhang. The effect of cigarette smoking on lung cancer evolution[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2019, 16(6): 7771-7788. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2019390

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Abstract

The aim of this paper is to elucidate the risk of lung carcinogenesis from cigarette smoking among current and former smokers. To achieve this goal, we have set up a stochastic three-stage model to fit the data of Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program besides the data set of smoking derived from the Nurses' Health Study cohort of females (NHS) and the Health Professionals Follow up Study cohort of men (HPFS). The calculations are performed by considering both mutation and clonal expansion rates as parameters in each compartment. For current smokers, our findings show that cigarette smoking has more significant impact on the mutation rates of cells than the clonal expansion rates of premalignant cells among men and women. In particular, for male patients, cigarette smoking affects the mutation in normal cells and the transformation from premalignant cells to malignant ones in the optimal model. In addition, cigarette smoking induces only the initial mutation rates in normal cells among American women. For current and former smokers, cigarette smoking stimulates only the clonal expansion rate of the first premalignant cells in both sexes. However, we find that the impact of cigarette smoking is minimal in former smokers who have stopped smoking for over ten years among men and women in US.

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