As the focus of the new round of technological revolution, it is crucial to explore the role of artificial intelligence (AI) technology innovation in improving total factor productivity (TFP). Based on the data from 30 Chinese provinces from 2003 to 2021, this article measured AI innovation using the number of patent applications and empirically investigated the effects of AI technology innovation on TFP. The results demonstrated that AI technology innovation exerts significantly positive influences on the TFP. The mechanism analyses revealed that AI technology innovation improves TFP by upgrading industrial structures and promoting human capital. The subsample results indicated that the promotion effect of AI technology innovation on TFP is significant only in areas with high levels of marketization, financial development, and digital infrastructure. The panel quantile regression results indicated that as the TFP increases, the promoting effect of AI technology innovation on TFP gradually strengthens. This study offers comprehensive empirical evidence for understanding the impacts of AI technology innovation on TFP, giving a reference for further enhancing the level of AI development and promoting a sustainable economic development.
Citation: Shuang Luo, Wenting Lei, Peng Hou. Impact of artificial intelligence technology innovation on total factor productivity: an empirical study based on provincial panel data in China[J]. National Accounting Review, 2024, 6(2): 172-194. doi: 10.3934/NAR.2024008
As the focus of the new round of technological revolution, it is crucial to explore the role of artificial intelligence (AI) technology innovation in improving total factor productivity (TFP). Based on the data from 30 Chinese provinces from 2003 to 2021, this article measured AI innovation using the number of patent applications and empirically investigated the effects of AI technology innovation on TFP. The results demonstrated that AI technology innovation exerts significantly positive influences on the TFP. The mechanism analyses revealed that AI technology innovation improves TFP by upgrading industrial structures and promoting human capital. The subsample results indicated that the promotion effect of AI technology innovation on TFP is significant only in areas with high levels of marketization, financial development, and digital infrastructure. The panel quantile regression results indicated that as the TFP increases, the promoting effect of AI technology innovation on TFP gradually strengthens. This study offers comprehensive empirical evidence for understanding the impacts of AI technology innovation on TFP, giving a reference for further enhancing the level of AI development and promoting a sustainable economic development.
[1] | Acemoglu D, Autor D, Dorn D, et al. (2014) Return of the solow paradox? It, productivity, and employment in US Manufacturing. Am Econ Rev 104: 394–399. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.104.5.394 doi: 10.1257/aer.104.5.394 |
[2] | Acemoglu D, Restrepo P (2019) Artificial intelligence, automation and work. In: Agrawal, A., Gans, J., Goldfarb, A., (eds), The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, University of Chicago Press, 197–236. https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226613475.003.0008 |
[3] | Acemoglu D, Restrepo P (2018) The race between man and machine: implications of technology for growth, factor shares, and employment. Am Econ Rev 108: 1488–1542. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20160696 doi: 10.1257/aer.20160696 |
[4] | Aghion P, Blundell RW, Griffith R, et al. (2009) The effects of entry on incumbent innovation and productivity. Rev Econ Stat 91: 20–32. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.91.1.20 doi: 10.1162/rest.91.1.20 |
[5] | Aghion P, Howitt P (1992) A model of growth through creative destruction. Econometrica 60: 323–351. |
[6] | Alrowwad A, Abualooush SH, Masa'Deh R (2020) Innovation and intellectual capital as intermediary variables among transformational leadership, transactional leadership, and organizational performance. J Manag Dev 39: 196–222. https://doi.org/10.1108/JMD-02-2019-0062 doi: 10.1108/JMD-02-2019-0062 |
[7] | Brynjolfsson E, Rock D, Syverson C (2019) Artificial intelligence and the modern productivity paradox: a clash of expectations and statistics. In: Agrawal, A., Gans, J., Goldfarb, A., (eds), The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, University of Chicago Press, 23–60. https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226613475.003.0001 |
[8] | Cao J, Law SH, Samad ARBA, et al. (2022) Effect of financial development and technological innovation on green growth-analysis based on spatial durbin model. J Clean Prod 365. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.132865 doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.132865 |
[9] | Chang L, Taghizadeh-Hesary F, Mohsin M (2023) Role of artificial intelligence on green economic development: joint determinates of natural resources and green total factor productivity. Resour Policy 82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103508 doi: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103508 |
[10] | Dong F, Hu MY, Gao YJ, et al. (2022) How does digital economy affect carbon emissions? Evidence from global 60 countries. Sci Total Environ 852. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158401 doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158401 |
[11] | Galor O, Moav O (2002) Natural selection and the origin of economic growth. Q J Econ 117: 1133–1191. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355302320935007 doi: 10.1162/003355302320935007 |
[12] | Ge P, Liu T, Huang X (2023) The effects and drivers of green financial reform in promoting environmentally-biased technological progress. J Environ Manage 339. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117915. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117915 |
[13] | Graetz G, Michaels G (2015) Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs. Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. |
[14] | Hopenhayn HA (2014) Firms, misallocation, and aggregate productivity: a review. Annu Rev Econom 6: 735–770. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-082912-110223 doi: 10.1146/annurev-economics-082912-110223 |
[15] | Jiang J, Su P, Ge Z (2021) The high-and new-technology enterprise identification, marketization process and the total factor productivity of enterprise. Kybernetes 50: 528–549. https://doi.org/10.1108/K-11-2019-0743 doi: 10.1108/K-11-2019-0743 |
[16] | Jiang W, Li P (2022) Ai and tfp: "technology dividend" or "technology gap". J Stat Inform 37:26–35. |
[17] | Kijek A, Kijek T (2020) Nonlinear effects of human capital and r & d on tfp: evidence from european regions. Sustainability 12. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12051808 doi: 10.3390/su12051808 |
[18] | Lee H, Yang SA, Kim K (2019) The role of fintech in mitigating information friction in supply chain finance. Asian Development Bank Economics Working Paper Series. http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/WPS190574-2 doi: 10.22617/WPS190574-2 |
[19] | Lei Z, Wang D (2023) Digital transformation and total factor productivity: empirical evidence from china. Plos One 18. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0292972 doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0292972 |
[20] | Lewbel A (1997) Constructing instruments for regressions with measurement error when no additional data are available, with an application to patents and r & d. Econometrica, 1201–1213. |
[21] | Liang S, Dong Q (2023) Management's macroeconomic cognition and corporate default risk. J Quant Technol Econ 40:200–220. |
[22] | Lin B, Zhu J (2019) The role of renewable energy technological innovation on climate change: empirical evidence from china. Sci Total Environ 659: 1505–1512. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.449 doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.449 |
[23] | Liu J, Chang H, Forrest JY, et al. (2020) Influence of artificial intelligence on technological innovation: evidence from the panel data of china's manufacturing sectors. Technol Forecast Soc 158. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120142 doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120142 |
[24] | Meng T, Yu D, Ye L, et al. (2023) Impact of digital city competitiveness on total factor productivity in the commercial circulation industry: evidence from china's emerging first-tier cities. Humanit Soc Sci Commun 10. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-023-02390-7 doi: 10.1057/s41599-023-02390-7 |
[25] | Nordhaus WD (2021) Are we approaching an economic singularity? Information technology and the future of economic growth. Am Econ J Macroecon 13: 299–332. https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20170105 doi: 10.1257/mac.20170105 |
[26] | Pan W, He Z, Pan H (2021) Research on spatiotemporal evolution and distribution dynamics of digital economy development in china. China Soft Sci 10: 137–147. |
[27] | Pan X, Chu J, Tian M, et al. (2022) Non-linear effects of outward foreign direct investment on total factor energy efficiency in china. Energy 239. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2021.122293 doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2021.122293 |
[28] | Ren XH, Zeng GD, Gozgor G (2023) How does digital finance affect industrial structure upgrading? Evidence from chinese prefecture-level cities. J Environ Manage 330. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.117125 doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.117125 |
[29] | Ren Y, Liu Y, Li H (2023) Artificial intelligence technology innovationand enterprise total factor productivity. Bus Manag J 45: 50–60. |
[30] | Song W, Mao H, Han X (2021) The two-sided effects of foreign direct investment on carbon emissions performance in china. Sci Total Environ 791. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148331 doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148331 |
[31] | Tang C, Xu YY, Hao Y, et al. (2021) What is the role of telecommunications infrastructure construction in green technology innovation? A firm-level analysis for china. Energ Econ 103. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105576 doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105576 |
[32] | Tang S, Lai X, Huang R (2019) How can fintech innovation affect tfp: facilitating or inhibiting? theoretical analysis framework and regional practice. China Soft Sci 7: 134–144. |
[33] | Tang S, Wu X, Zhu J (2020) Digital Finance and Enterprise Technology Innovation: Structural Feature, Mechanism Identification and Effect Difference under Financial Supervision. Manag World 36: 52–66. |
[34] | Valli V, Saccone D (2009) Structural change and economic development in china and india. Eur J Comp Econ 6 |
[35] | Wang CG, Liu TS, Zhu Y, et al. (2022) Digital economy, environmental regulation and corporate green technology innovation: evidence from china. Int J Env Res Pub He 19. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192114084. doi: 10.3390/ijerph192114084 |
[36] | Wang KL, Sun TT, Xu RY, et al. (2023) The impact of artificial intelligence on total factor productivity: empirical evidence from china's manufacturing enterprises. Econ Change Restruct 56: 1113–1146. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-022-09467-4 doi: 10.1007/s10644-022-09467-4 |
[37] | Wang X, Fan G (2000) Sustainability of china's economic growth. Economic Science Press, Shanghai. |
[38] | Wang X, Hu L, Fan G (2021) Marketization index of china's provinces:neri report 2021. Social Sciences Academic Press (China). |
[39] | Wang Z, Han C, Zhu W (2022) Research on the impact of digital finance development on complexity of export technology. World Econ Stud 8: 26–42. |
[40] | Xiong J, Chen L (2022) Dialect diversity and total factor productivity: evidence from chinese listed companies. Front Psychol 13. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2022.1017397 doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2022.1017397 |
[41] | Yan Z, Zou B, Du K, Li K (2020) Do renewable energy technology innovations promote china's green productivity growth? Fresh evidence from partially linear functional-coefficient models. Energ Econ 90. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104842 doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104842 |
[42] | Yao S, Zhang S, Zhang X (2019) Renewable energy, carbon emission and economic growth: a revised environmental kuznets curve perspective. J Clean Prod 235: 1338–1352. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.07.069 doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.07.069 |
[43] | You J, Xiao H (2022) Can fdi facilitate green total factor productivity in china? Evidence from regional diversity. Environ Sci Pollut R 29: 49309–49321. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-18059-0 doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-18059-0 |
[44] | Zeng S, Shu X, Ye W (2022) Total factor productivity and high-quality economic development: a theoretical and empirical analysis of the yangtze river economic belt, china. Int J Env Res Pub He 19. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19052783 doi: 10.3390/ijerph19052783 |
[45] | Zhai S, Liu Z (2023) Artificial intelligence technology innovation and firm productivity: evidence from china. Financ Res Lett 58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2023.104437 doi: 10.1016/j.frl.2023.104437 |
[46] | Zhang B, Sun X (2015) Total factor productivity of economic growth. Journal of Ocean University of China (Social Sciences), 73–78. |
[47] | Zhang J, Wu G, Peng J (2004) The estimation of china's provincial capital stock: 1952–2000. Economic Research Journal, 33–44. |
[48] | Zheng W, Walsh PP (2019) Economic growth, urbanization and energy consumption - a provincial level analysis of china. Energ Econ 80: 153–162. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2019.01.004 doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2019.01.004 |
[49] | Zhou C, Sun Z, Qi S, et al. (2023) Green credit guideline and enterprise export green-sophistication. J Environ Manage 336. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117648 doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117648 |
[50] | Zou S, Liao Z, Fan X (2024) The impact of the digital economy on urban total factor productivity: mechanisms and spatial spillover effects. Sci Rep-Uk 14: 396. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-49915-3 doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-49915-3 |