Impact of A Waning Vaccine and Altered Behavior on the Spread of Influenza

Kasia A. Pawelek; Sarah Tobin; Christopher Griffin; Dominik Ochocinski; Elissa J. Schwartz; Sara Y. Del Valle; Kasia A. Pawelek; Sarah Tobin; Christopher Griffin; Dominik Ochocinski; Elissa J. Schwartz; Sara Y. Del Valle

doi:10.3934/medsci.2017.2.217

AIMS Medical Science

2017, Volume 4, Issue 2: 217-232. doi: 10.3934/medsci.2017.2.217

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Research article

Impact of A Waning Vaccine and Altered Behavior on the Spread of Influenza

1.
Department of Mathematics and Computational Science, University of South Carolina Beaufort, Bluffton, South Carolina, USA;
2.
Department of Natural Sciences, University of South Carolina Beaufort, Bluffton, South Carolina, USA;
3.
Michigan State University College of Osteopathic Medicine, East Lansing, Michigan, USA;
4.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington, USA;
5.
School of Biological Sciences, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington, USA;
6.
Analytics, Intelligence, and Technology Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA

Received: 26 January 2017 Accepted: 16 May 2017 Published: 08 June 2017

Influenza remains one of the major infectious diseases that targets humankind. Understanding within-host dynamics of the virus and how it translates into the spread of the disease at a population level can help us obtain more accurate disease outbreak predictions. We created an ordinary differential equation model with parameter estimates based on the disease symptoms score data to determine various disease stages and parameters associated with infectiousness and disease progression. Having various stages with different intensities of symptoms enables us to incorporate spontaneous behavior change due to the onset/offset of disease symptoms. Additionally, we incorporate the effect of a waning vaccine on delaying the time and decreasing the size of an epidemic peak. Our results showed that the epidemic peak in the model was significantly lowered when public vaccination was performed up to two months past the onset of an epidemic. Also, behavior change in the earliest stages of the epidemic lowers and delays the epidemic peak. This study further provides information on the potential impact of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions during an influenza epidemic.
- influenza,
- mathematical modeling,
- vaccination,
- waning vaccine,
- behavior change
Citation: Kasia A. Pawelek, Sarah Tobin, Christopher Griffin, Dominik Ochocinski, Elissa J. Schwartz, Sara Y. Del Valle. Impact of A Waning Vaccine and Altered Behavior on the Spread of Influenza[J]. AIMS Medical Science, 2017, 4(2): 217-232. doi: 10.3934/medsci.2017.2.217

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Abstract

Influenza remains one of the major infectious diseases that targets humankind. Understanding within-host dynamics of the virus and how it translates into the spread of the disease at a population level can help us obtain more accurate disease outbreak predictions. We created an ordinary differential equation model with parameter estimates based on the disease symptoms score data to determine various disease stages and parameters associated with infectiousness and disease progression. Having various stages with different intensities of symptoms enables us to incorporate spontaneous behavior change due to the onset/offset of disease symptoms. Additionally, we incorporate the effect of a waning vaccine on delaying the time and decreasing the size of an epidemic peak. Our results showed that the epidemic peak in the model was significantly lowered when public vaccination was performed up to two months past the onset of an epidemic. Also, behavior change in the earliest stages of the epidemic lowers and delays the epidemic peak. This study further provides information on the potential impact of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions during an influenza epidemic.

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