Transmission dynamics of brucellosis with patch model: Shanxi and Hebei Provinces as cases

Yaoyao Qin; Xin Pei; Mingtao Li; Yuzhen Chai; Yaoyao Qin; Xin Pei; Mingtao Li; Yuzhen Chai

doi:10.3934/mbe.2022300

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

2022, Volume 19, Issue 6: 6396-6414. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2022300

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Transmission dynamics of brucellosis with patch model: Shanxi and Hebei Provinces as cases

School of Mathematics, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan 030024, China

Academic Editor: Yang Kuang

Received: 05 March 2022 Revised: 11 April 2022 Accepted: 15 April 2022 Published: 24 April 2022

Brucellosis is a zoonotic disease caused by Brucella, and it is an important infectious disease all over the world. The prevalence of brucellosis in the Chinese mainland has some spatial characteristics besides the temporal trend in recent years. Due to the large-scale breeding of sheep and the frequent transportation of sheep in various regions, brucellosis spreads wantonly in pastoral areas, and human brucellosis spreads from traditional pastoral areas and semi-pastoral areas in the north to non-pastoral areas with low incidence in the south. In order to study the influence of sheep immigration on the epidemic transmission, a patch dynamics model was established. In each patch, the sub-model was composed of humans, sheep and Brucella. The basic reproduction number, disease-free equilibrium and positive equilibrium of the model were discussed. On the other hand, taking Shanxi Province and Hebei Province as examples, we carried out numerical simulations. The results show that the basic reproduction numbers of Shanxi Province and Hebei Province are 0.7497 and 0.5022, respectively, which indicates that the current brucellosis in the two regions has been effectively controlled. To reduce brucellosis faster in the two provinces, there should be a certain degree of sheep immigration from high-infection area to low-infection areas, and reduce the immigration of sheep from low-infection areas to high-infection areas.
- brucellosis,
- sheep immigration,
- patch model,
- basic reproduction number
Citation: Yaoyao Qin, Xin Pei, Mingtao Li, Yuzhen Chai. Transmission dynamics of brucellosis with patch model: Shanxi and Hebei Provinces as cases[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2022, 19(6): 6396-6414. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2022300

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Abstract

Brucellosis is a zoonotic disease caused by Brucella, and it is an important infectious disease all over the world. The prevalence of brucellosis in the Chinese mainland has some spatial characteristics besides the temporal trend in recent years. Due to the large-scale breeding of sheep and the frequent transportation of sheep in various regions, brucellosis spreads wantonly in pastoral areas, and human brucellosis spreads from traditional pastoral areas and semi-pastoral areas in the north to non-pastoral areas with low incidence in the south. In order to study the influence of sheep immigration on the epidemic transmission, a patch dynamics model was established. In each patch, the sub-model was composed of humans, sheep and Brucella. The basic reproduction number, disease-free equilibrium and positive equilibrium of the model were discussed. On the other hand, taking Shanxi Province and Hebei Province as examples, we carried out numerical simulations. The results show that the basic reproduction numbers of Shanxi Province and Hebei Province are 0.7497 and 0.5022, respectively, which indicates that the current brucellosis in the two regions has been effectively controlled. To reduce brucellosis faster in the two provinces, there should be a certain degree of sheep immigration from high-infection area to low-infection areas, and reduce the immigration of sheep from low-infection areas to high-infection areas.

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