Spread of tuberculosis (TB) due to the immigration from some
developing countries with high TB incidence to developed countries
poses an increasing challenge in the global TB control. Here a
simple compartmental TB model with constant immigration, early and
late latency is developed in order to investigate the impact of new
immigrants with latent TB on the overall TB incidence, and to
compare the difference contributed by different proportions of
latently-infected new immigrants with high or low risk to develop
active TB shortly after arrival. The global dynamics of the system
is completely classified, numerical simulations are carried out for
different scenarios, and potential applications to public health
policy are discussed.
Citation: Hongbin Guo, Jianhong Wu. Persistent high incidence of tuberculosis among immigrants in a low-incidence country: Impact of immigrants with early or late latency[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2011, 8(3): 695-709. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2011.8.695
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Abstract
Spread of tuberculosis (TB) due to the immigration from some
developing countries with high TB incidence to developed countries
poses an increasing challenge in the global TB control. Here a
simple compartmental TB model with constant immigration, early and
late latency is developed in order to investigate the impact of new
immigrants with latent TB on the overall TB incidence, and to
compare the difference contributed by different proportions of
latently-infected new immigrants with high or low risk to develop
active TB shortly after arrival. The global dynamics of the system
is completely classified, numerical simulations are carried out for
different scenarios, and potential applications to public health
policy are discussed.