The number of COVID-19 clusters in healthcare and elderly care facilities averted by vaccination of healthcare workers in Japan, February–June 2021

Misaki Sasanami; Taishi Kayano; Hiroshi Nishiura; Misaki Sasanami; Taishi Kayano; Hiroshi Nishiura

doi:10.3934/mbe.2022126

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

2022, Volume 19, Issue 3: 2762-2773. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2022126

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Research article Special Issues

The number of COVID-19 clusters in healthcare and elderly care facilities averted by vaccination of healthcare workers in Japan, February–June 2021

Kyoto University School of Public Health, Yoshida-Konoe, Sakyo, Kyoto 606-8601, Japan

Received: 02 October 2021 Revised: 17 December 2021 Accepted: 27 December 2021 Published: 12 January 2022

In Japan, a prioritized COVID-19 vaccination program using Pfizer/BioNTech messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine among healthcare workers commenced on February 17, 2021. As vaccination coverage increases, clusters in healthcare and elderly care facilities including hospitals and nursing homes are expected to be reduced. The present study aimed to explicitly estimate the protective effect of vaccination in reducing cluster incidence in those facilities. A mathematical model was formulated using three pieces of information: (1) the incidence of clusters in facilities from October 26, 2020 to June 27, 2021; (2) the incidence of confirmed COVID-19 cases during the same period; and (3) vaccine doses among healthcare workers from February 17 to June 27, 2021, extracted from the national Vaccination System database. We found that the estimated proportion at risk in healthcare and elderly care facilities declined substantially as the vaccination coverage among healthcare workers increased; the greater risk reduction was observed in healthcare facilities, at 0.10 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.04–0.16) times that in the pre-vaccination period, while that in elderly care facilities was 0.34 (95% CI: 0.24–0.43) times that in the earlier period. The averted numbers of clusters in healthcare facilities and elderly care facilities were estimated to be 247 (95% CI: 210–301) and 279 (95% CI: 218–354), respectively. Prioritized vaccination among healthcare workers had a marked impact on preventing the incidence of clusters in facilities.
- COVID-19,
- vaccine effectiveness,
- clusters,
- mathematical model,
- statistical model
Citation: Misaki Sasanami, Taishi Kayano, Hiroshi Nishiura. The number of COVID-19 clusters in healthcare and elderly care facilities averted by vaccination of healthcare workers in Japan, February–June 2021[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2022, 19(3): 2762-2773. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2022126

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Abstract

In Japan, a prioritized COVID-19 vaccination program using Pfizer/BioNTech messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine among healthcare workers commenced on February 17, 2021. As vaccination coverage increases, clusters in healthcare and elderly care facilities including hospitals and nursing homes are expected to be reduced. The present study aimed to explicitly estimate the protective effect of vaccination in reducing cluster incidence in those facilities. A mathematical model was formulated using three pieces of information: (1) the incidence of clusters in facilities from October 26, 2020 to June 27, 2021; (2) the incidence of confirmed COVID-19 cases during the same period; and (3) vaccine doses among healthcare workers from February 17 to June 27, 2021, extracted from the national Vaccination System database. We found that the estimated proportion at risk in healthcare and elderly care facilities declined substantially as the vaccination coverage among healthcare workers increased; the greater risk reduction was observed in healthcare facilities, at 0.10 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.04–0.16) times that in the pre-vaccination period, while that in elderly care facilities was 0.34 (95% CI: 0.24–0.43) times that in the earlier period. The averted numbers of clusters in healthcare facilities and elderly care facilities were estimated to be 247 (95% CI: 210–301) and 279 (95% CI: 218–354), respectively. Prioritized vaccination among healthcare workers had a marked impact on preventing the incidence of clusters in facilities.

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