An analysis on the trend of AIDS/HIV incidence in Chongqing and Shenzhen, China from 2005–2015 based on Age-Period-Cohort model

Ying Liu; Weidong Ji; Yi Yin; Zhengrong Yang; Shu Yang; Chao Zhou; Yongli Cai; Kai Wang; Zhihang Peng; Daihai He; Weiming Wang; Ying Liu; Weidong Ji; Yi Yin; Zhengrong Yang; Shu Yang; Chao Zhou; Yongli Cai; Kai Wang; Zhihang Peng; Daihai He; Weiming Wang

doi:10.3934/mbe.2021346

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

2021, Volume 18, Issue 5: 6961-6977. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2021346

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Research article

An analysis on the trend of AIDS/HIV incidence in Chongqing and Shenzhen, China from 2005–2015 based on Age-Period-Cohort model

1.
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian, 223300, China
2.
Zhongshan School of Medicine, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
3.
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China
4.
Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen 518055, China
5.
Chengdu university of traditional Chinese medicine, Chengdu 610075, China
6.
Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing 400042, China
7.
College of Medical Engineering and Technology, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830011, China
8.
Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR, China
^† These authors contributed equally.

Received: 27 May 2021 Accepted: 11 August 2021 Published: 23 August 2021

This paper elucidates that the AIDS/HIV incidence rate differences exist among different population and regions, especially among the old and college students. Due to the effect of age, the AIDS incidence peak in males aged 20–35 years and 50 years old both in Chongqing and Shenzhen, and the incidence rate and increasing spread in males was higher than that of females under period effect. In the local population in Chongqing and Shenzhen, the incidence rate of males in over 40, below and in the whole age groups are predicted to increase sharply in the future six years, while in females, the incidence rates among over 40-year-old and the whole age groups were predicted to increase as well. The incidence rate among homosexually transmitted patients reaches the peak in the 20–35, the incidence rate of patients transmitted through heterosexual reaches the peak around 50-year-old. Under the effect of period, AIDS/HIV incidence rate of patients transmitted through sexual routes showed an upward trend both in Chongqing and Shenzhen. The incidence rate of patients aged between 41 and 70 years old presents with an upward trend in the future six years. The results show great differences exist in the AIDS/HIV incidence between males and females, therefore it is necessary to take specific measures respectively.
- AIDS/HIV,
- age effect,
- periodic effect,
- cohort effect,
- prediction
Citation: Ying Liu, Weidong Ji, Yi Yin, Zhengrong Yang, Shu Yang, Chao Zhou, Yongli Cai, Kai Wang, Zhihang Peng, Daihai He, Weiming Wang. An analysis on the trend of AIDS/HIV incidence in Chongqing and Shenzhen, China from 2005–2015 based on Age-Period-Cohort model[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2021, 18(5): 6961-6977. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2021346

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Abstract

This paper elucidates that the AIDS/HIV incidence rate differences exist among different population and regions, especially among the old and college students. Due to the effect of age, the AIDS incidence peak in males aged 20–35 years and 50 years old both in Chongqing and Shenzhen, and the incidence rate and increasing spread in males was higher than that of females under period effect. In the local population in Chongqing and Shenzhen, the incidence rate of males in over 40, below and in the whole age groups are predicted to increase sharply in the future six years, while in females, the incidence rates among over 40-year-old and the whole age groups were predicted to increase as well. The incidence rate among homosexually transmitted patients reaches the peak in the 20–35, the incidence rate of patients transmitted through heterosexual reaches the peak around 50-year-old. Under the effect of period, AIDS/HIV incidence rate of patients transmitted through sexual routes showed an upward trend both in Chongqing and Shenzhen. The incidence rate of patients aged between 41 and 70 years old presents with an upward trend in the future six years. The results show great differences exist in the AIDS/HIV incidence between males and females, therefore it is necessary to take specific measures respectively.

References

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