The spread of influenza-like-illness within the household in Shanghai, China

Meili Li; Hong Wang; Baojun Song; Junling Ma; Meili Li; Hong Wang; Baojun Song; Junling Ma

doi:10.3934/mbe.2020099

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

2020, Volume 17, Issue 2: 1889-1900. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2020099

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The spread of influenza-like-illness within the household in Shanghai, China

1.
College of Science, Donghua University, Shanghai 201620, China
2.
Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Montclair State University, Montclair, NJ 07043, USA
3.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada

Received: 09 October 2019 Accepted: 04 December 2019 Published: 18 December 2019

High-density urban habitats provide a hotbed for the rapid spread of infectious diseases. School children densely aggregate in classrooms. So schools are high incidence area of infectious diseases. This paper aims at investigating the transmission of influenza-like-illness within households with a school child using a survey study of fourth grade elementary school students in Shanghai, China. We found that the pairwise transmission probability within a household is only 0.172, which implies that the average number of infections caused by a single infectious individual in a household in Shanghai is only 0.304. Thus, the majority of transmission must occur outside of a household for a disease to cause an outbreak.
- household transmission,
- pairwise transmission probability,
- influenza-like-illness,
- Markov Chain
Citation: Meili Li, Hong Wang, Baojun Song, Junling Ma. The spread of influenza-like-illness within the household in Shanghai, China[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2020, 17(2): 1889-1900. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2020099

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Abstract

High-density urban habitats provide a hotbed for the rapid spread of infectious diseases. School children densely aggregate in classrooms. So schools are high incidence area of infectious diseases. This paper aims at investigating the transmission of influenza-like-illness within households with a school child using a survey study of fourth grade elementary school students in Shanghai, China. We found that the pairwise transmission probability within a household is only 0.172, which implies that the average number of infections caused by a single infectious individual in a household in Shanghai is only 0.304. Thus, the majority of transmission must occur outside of a household for a disease to cause an outbreak.

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