Seasonality and the effectiveness of mass vaccination

  • Received: 01 March 2015 Accepted: 29 June 2018 Published: 25 November 2015
  • MSC : Primary: 92D30; Secondary: 34C60, 92B05.

  • Many infectious diseases have seasonal outbreaks, which may be driven by cyclical environmental conditions (e.g., an annual rainy season) or human behavior (e.g., school calendars or seasonal migration).If a pathogen is only transmissible for a limited period of time each year,then seasonal outbreaks could infect fewer individuals than expected given the pathogen's in-season transmissibility.Influenza, with its short serial interval and long season,probably spreads throughout a population until a substantial fraction of susceptible individuals are infected.Dengue, with a long serial interval and shorter season,may be constrained by its short transmission season rather than the depletion of susceptibles.Using mathematical modeling, we show that mass vaccination is most efficient,in terms of infections prevented per vaccine administered,at high levels of coverage for pathogens that have relatively long epidemicseasons, like influenza, and at low levels of coverage for pathogens with short epidemic seasons, like dengue.Therefore, the length of a pathogen's epidemic season may need to beconsidered when evaluating the costs and benefits of vaccination programs.

    Citation: Dennis L. Chao, Dobromir T. Dimitrov. Seasonality and the effectiveness of mass vaccination[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2016, 13(2): 249-259. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2015001

    Related Papers:

    [1] Steady Mushayabasa, Drew Posny, Jin Wang . Modeling the intrinsic dynamics of foot-and-mouth disease. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2016, 13(2): 425-442. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2015010
    [2] Sherry Towers, Katia Vogt Geisse, Chia-Chun Tsai, Qing Han, Zhilan Feng . The impact of school closures on pandemic influenza: Assessing potential repercussions using a seasonal SIR model. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2012, 9(2): 413-430. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2012.9.413
    [3] Islam A. Moneim, David Greenhalgh . Use Of A Periodic Vaccination Strategy To Control The Spread Of Epidemics With Seasonally Varying Contact Rate. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2005, 2(3): 591-611. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2005.2.591
    [4] Mahmudul Bari Hridoy . An exploration of modeling approaches for capturing seasonal transmission in stochastic epidemic models. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2025, 22(2): 324-354. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2025013
    [5] Qingling Zeng, Kamran Khan, Jianhong Wu, Huaiping Zhu . The utility of preemptive mass influenza vaccination in controlling a SARS outbreak during flu season. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2007, 4(4): 739-754. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2007.4.739
    [6] Olivia Prosper, Omar Saucedo, Doria Thompson, Griselle Torres-Garcia, Xiaohong Wang, Carlos Castillo-Chavez . Modeling control strategies for concurrent epidemics of seasonal and pandemic H1N1 influenza. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2011, 8(1): 141-170. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2011.8.141
    [7] Lili Han, Mingfeng He, Xiao He, Qiuhui Pan . Synergistic effects of vaccination and virus testing on the transmission of an infectious disease. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2023, 20(9): 16114-16130. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2023719
    [8] Eunha Shim . Optimal strategies of social distancing and vaccination against seasonal influenza. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2013, 10(5&6): 1615-1634. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2013.10.1615
    [9] Glenn Ledder . Incorporating mass vaccination into compartment models for infectious diseases. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2022, 19(9): 9457-9480. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2022440
    [10] Diana Bolatova, Shirali Kadyrov, Ardak Kashkynbayev . Mathematical modeling of infectious diseases and the impact of vaccination strategies. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2024, 21(9): 7103-7123. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2024314
  • Many infectious diseases have seasonal outbreaks, which may be driven by cyclical environmental conditions (e.g., an annual rainy season) or human behavior (e.g., school calendars or seasonal migration).If a pathogen is only transmissible for a limited period of time each year,then seasonal outbreaks could infect fewer individuals than expected given the pathogen's in-season transmissibility.Influenza, with its short serial interval and long season,probably spreads throughout a population until a substantial fraction of susceptible individuals are infected.Dengue, with a long serial interval and shorter season,may be constrained by its short transmission season rather than the depletion of susceptibles.Using mathematical modeling, we show that mass vaccination is most efficient,in terms of infections prevented per vaccine administered,at high levels of coverage for pathogens that have relatively long epidemicseasons, like influenza, and at low levels of coverage for pathogens with short epidemic seasons, like dengue.Therefore, the length of a pathogen's epidemic season may need to beconsidered when evaluating the costs and benefits of vaccination programs.


    [1] Ecol Lett, 9 (2006), 467-484.
    [2] Oxford University Press, Oxford, United Kingdom, 1991.
    [3] J Theor Biol, 110 (1984), 665-679.
    [4] Am J Trop Med Hyg, 89 (2013), 1066-1080.
    [5] in Current Topics in Microbiology and Immunology: Cholera Outbreaks (eds. G. B. Nair and Y. Takeda), vol. 379, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 2014, 195-209.
    [6] BMC Infect Dis, 1 (2001), p1.
    [7] Epidemiology, 20 (2009), 344-347.
    [8] J Math Biol, 28 (1990), 365-382.
    [9] PLoS Negl Trop Dis, 8 (2014), e3343.
    [10] Proc Biol Sci, 277 (2010), 2775-2782.
    [11] Clin Infect Dis, 52 (2011), 911-916.
    [12] Clin Microbiol Infect, 18 (2012), 946-954.
    [13] Annu Rev Public Health, 28 (2007), 127-143.
    [14] Rev Infect Dis, 5 (1983), 463-466.
    [15] Proc Biol Sci, 273 (2006), 2541-2550.
    [16] Annu Rev Entomol, 53 (2008), 273-291.
    [17] SIAM Review, 42 (2000), 599-653.
    [18] Proc Biol Sci, 269 (2002), 335-343.
    [19] Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A, 115 (1927), 700-721.
    [20] Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 108 (2011), 7460-7465.
    [21] Math Biosci, 23 (1975), 33-46.
    [22] Oxford University Press, Oxford, United Kingdom, 1957.
    [23] Proc Biol Sci, 281 (2014), 20132438.
    [24] Epidemics, 13 (2015), 17-27.
    [25] J Infect Dis, 195 (2007), 1007-1013.
    [26] Math Biosci, 149 (1998), 23-36.
    [27] Math Biosci, 75 (1985), 3-22.
    [28] Influenza Other Respir Viruses, 4 (2010), 295-306.
    [29] Emerg Infect Dis, 14 (2008), 1081-1088.
    [30] Math and Comp Mod, 31 (2000), 207-215.
    [31] Math Biosci, 180 (2002), 29-48.
    [32] World Development, 37 (2009), 399-409.
  • This article has been cited by:

    1. José Enrique Amaro, Jérémie Dudouet, José Nicolás Orce, Global analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic using simple epidemiological models, 2021, 90, 0307904X, 995, 10.1016/j.apm.2020.10.019
    2. Zhongwei Cao, Wei Feng, Xiangdan Wen, Li Zu, Jinyao Gao, Nontrivial periodic solution of a stochastic seasonal rabies epidemic model, 2020, 545, 03784371, 123361, 10.1016/j.physa.2019.123361
    3. M. A. Aziz-Alaoui, Sunita Gakkhar, Benjamin Ambrosio, Arti Mishra, A network model for control of dengue epidemic using sterile insect technique, 2017, 15, 1551-0018, 441, 10.3934/mbe.2018020
    4. José L. Herrera-Diestra, Lauren Ancel Meyers, Yang Yang, Local risk perception enhances epidemic control, 2019, 14, 1932-6203, e0225576, 10.1371/journal.pone.0225576
    5. J. E. Amaro, Systematic description of COVID-19 pandemic using exact SIR solutions and Gumbel distributions, 2023, 111, 0924-090X, 1947, 10.1007/s11071-022-07907-4
    6. José Enrique Amaro, José Nicolás Orce, Monte Carlo simulation of COVID-19 pandemic using Planck’s probability distribution, 2022, 218, 03032647, 104708, 10.1016/j.biosystems.2022.104708
  • Reader Comments
  • © 2016 the Author(s), licensee AIMS Press. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)
通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
  • 1. 

    沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

  1. 本站搜索
  2. 百度学术搜索
  3. 万方数据库搜索
  4. CNKI搜索

Metrics

Article views(3182) PDF downloads(665) Cited by(6)

Article outline

Other Articles By Authors

/

DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
Return
Return

Catalog