COVID-19 and firms' financial health in Brescia: a simulation with Logistic regression and neural networks

Alberto Bernardi; Daniela Bragoli; Davide Fedreghini; Tommaso Ganugi; Giovanni Marseguerra; Alberto Bernardi; Daniela Bragoli; Davide Fedreghini; Tommaso Ganugi; Giovanni Marseguerra

doi:10.3934/NAR.2021015

National Accounting Review

2021, Volume 3, Issue 3: 293-309. doi: 10.3934/NAR.2021015

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Research article Special Issues

COVID-19 and firms' financial health in Brescia: a simulation with Logistic regression and neural networks

1.
SACMI, Parma, Italy
2.
Department of Mathematics for Economic, Financial and Actuarial Sciences, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano, Italy
3.
Confindustria Brescia and Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano, Italy

Received: 13 April 2021 Accepted: 08 August 2021 Published: 18 August 2021
JEL Codes: G33, C45, C52, R11, L23

COVID-19 has generated an unprecedented shock to the global economy causing both the decrease in demand and supply. The purpose of this paper is to simulate the effect of COVID-19 on firms' financial statements in Brescia. The shocked information is then fed into two bankruptcy models with the aim of providing an up-to-date picture of firms' economic health in one of the most prosperous industrial areas in Italy and Europe.
- COVID-19,
- financial statements,
- logistic regression,
- neural networks,
- Brescia
Citation: Alberto Bernardi, Daniela Bragoli, Davide Fedreghini, Tommaso Ganugi, Giovanni Marseguerra. COVID-19 and firms' financial health in Brescia: a simulation with Logistic regression and neural networks[J]. National Accounting Review, 2021, 3(3): 293-309. doi: 10.3934/NAR.2021015

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Abstract

COVID-19 has generated an unprecedented shock to the global economy causing both the decrease in demand and supply. The purpose of this paper is to simulate the effect of COVID-19 on firms' financial statements in Brescia. The shocked information is then fed into two bankruptcy models with the aim of providing an up-to-date picture of firms' economic health in one of the most prosperous industrial areas in Italy and Europe.

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