Analysis of the current status of TB transmission in China based on an age heterogeneity model

Chuanqing Xu; Kedeng Cheng; Yu Wang; Maoxing Liu; Xiaojing Wang; Zhen Yang; Songbai Guo; Chuanqing Xu; Kedeng Cheng; Yu Wang; Maoxing Liu; Xiaojing Wang; Zhen Yang; Songbai Guo

doi:10.3934/mbe.2023850

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

2023, Volume 20, Issue 11: 19232-19253. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2023850

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Research article Special Issues

Analysis of the current status of TB transmission in China based on an age heterogeneity model

1.
School of Science, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, 100044, China
2.
Beijing Changping District TB Control Center, 102202, China

Received: 06 July 2023 Revised: 16 September 2023 Accepted: 20 September 2023 Published: 16 October 2023

Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious disease transmitted through the respiratory system. China is one of the countries with a high burden of TB. Since 2004, an average of more than 800,000 cases of active TB has been reported each year in China. Analyzing the case data from 2004 to 2018, we found significant differences in TB incidence by age group. A model of TB is put forward to explore the effect of age heterogeneity on TB transmission. The nonlinear least squares method is used to obtain the key parameters in the model, and the basic reproduction number R_v = 0.8017 is calculated and the sensitivity analysis of R_v to the parameters is given. The simulation results show that reducing the number of new infections in the elderly population and increasing the recovery rate of elderly patients with the disease could significantly reduce the transmission of TB. Furthermore, the feasibility of achieving the goals of the World Health Organization (WHO) End TB Strategy in China is assessed, and we obtained that with existing TB control measures it will take another 30 years for China to reach the WHO goal to reduce 90% of the number of new cases by the year 2049. However, in theory it is feasible to reach the WHO strategic goal of ending TB by 2035 if the group contact rate in the elderly population can be reduced, though it is difficult to reduce the contact rate.
- tuberculosis (TB),
- age heterogeneity,
- basic reproduction number,
- sensitivity analysis,
- partial rank correlation coefficient analysis
Citation: Chuanqing Xu, Kedeng Cheng, Yu Wang, Maoxing Liu, Xiaojing Wang, Zhen Yang, Songbai Guo. Analysis of the current status of TB transmission in China based on an age heterogeneity model[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2023, 20(11): 19232-19253. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2023850

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Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious disease transmitted through the respiratory system. China is one of the countries with a high burden of TB. Since 2004, an average of more than 800,000 cases of active TB has been reported each year in China. Analyzing the case data from 2004 to 2018, we found significant differences in TB incidence by age group. A model of TB is put forward to explore the effect of age heterogeneity on TB transmission. The nonlinear least squares method is used to obtain the key parameters in the model, and the basic reproduction number R_v = 0.8017 is calculated and the sensitivity analysis of R_v to the parameters is given. The simulation results show that reducing the number of new infections in the elderly population and increasing the recovery rate of elderly patients with the disease could significantly reduce the transmission of TB. Furthermore, the feasibility of achieving the goals of the World Health Organization (WHO) End TB Strategy in China is assessed, and we obtained that with existing TB control measures it will take another 30 years for China to reach the WHO goal to reduce 90% of the number of new cases by the year 2049. However, in theory it is feasible to reach the WHO strategic goal of ending TB by 2035 if the group contact rate in the elderly population can be reduced, though it is difficult to reduce the contact rate.

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