Association of climatic factors with COVID-19 in Pakistan

Yasir Rehman; Nadia Rehman; Yasir Rehman; Nadia Rehman

doi:10.3934/publichealth.2020066

AIMS Public Health

2020, Volume 7, Issue 4: 854-868. doi: 10.3934/publichealth.2020066

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Research article Special Issues

Association of climatic factors with COVID-19 in Pakistan

Yasir Rehman ^,,
Nadia Rehman

Canadian Academy of Osteopathy, 66 Ottawa Street North, Canada

Received: 02 September 2020 Accepted: 06 November 2020 Published: 11 November 2020

Introduction Environmental factors such as wind, temperature, humidity, and sun exposure are known to affect influenza and viruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) transmissions. COVID-19 is a new pandemic with very little information available about its transmission and association with environmental factors. The goal of this paper is to explore the association of environmental factors on daily incidence rate, mortality rate, and recoveries of COVID-19.
Methods The environmental data for humidity, temperature, wind, and sun exposure were recorded from metrological websites and COVID-19 data such as the daily incidence rate, death rate, and daily recovery were extracted from the government's official website available to the general public. The analysis for each outcome was adjusted for factors such as lock down status, nationwide events, and the number of daily tests performed. Analysis was completed with negative binominal regression log link using generalised linear modelling.
Results Daily temperature, sun exposure, wind, and humidity were not significantly associated with daily incidence rate. Temperature and nationwide social gatherings, although non-significant, showed trends towards a higher chance of incidence. An increase in the number of daily testing was significantly associated with higher COVID-19 incidences (effect size ranged from 2.17–9.96). No factors were significantly associated with daily death rates. Except for the province of Balochistan, a lower daily temperature was associated with a significantly higher daily recovery rate.
Discussion Environmental factors such as temperature, humidity, wind, and daily sun exposure were not consistently associated with COVID-19 incidence, death rates, or recovery. More policing about precautionary measures and ensuring diagnostic testing and accuracy are needed.
- COVID-19,
- climatic effects,
- humidity,
- lock down,
- temperature,
- transmission
Citation: Yasir Rehman, Nadia Rehman. Association of climatic factors with COVID-19 in Pakistan[J]. AIMS Public Health, 2020, 7(4): 854-868. doi: 10.3934/publichealth.2020066

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Abstract

Introduction Environmental factors such as wind, temperature, humidity, and sun exposure are known to affect influenza and viruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) transmissions. COVID-19 is a new pandemic with very little information available about its transmission and association with environmental factors. The goal of this paper is to explore the association of environmental factors on daily incidence rate, mortality rate, and recoveries of COVID-19.

Methods The environmental data for humidity, temperature, wind, and sun exposure were recorded from metrological websites and COVID-19 data such as the daily incidence rate, death rate, and daily recovery were extracted from the government's official website available to the general public. The analysis for each outcome was adjusted for factors such as lock down status, nationwide events, and the number of daily tests performed. Analysis was completed with negative binominal regression log link using generalised linear modelling.

Results Daily temperature, sun exposure, wind, and humidity were not significantly associated with daily incidence rate. Temperature and nationwide social gatherings, although non-significant, showed trends towards a higher chance of incidence. An increase in the number of daily testing was significantly associated with higher COVID-19 incidences (effect size ranged from 2.17–9.96). No factors were significantly associated with daily death rates. Except for the province of Balochistan, a lower daily temperature was associated with a significantly higher daily recovery rate.

Discussion Environmental factors such as temperature, humidity, wind, and daily sun exposure were not consistently associated with COVID-19 incidence, death rates, or recovery. More policing about precautionary measures and ensuring diagnostic testing and accuracy are needed.

Conflict of interest

All authors declare no conflicts of interest in this paper.

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