The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need to quickly respond, via public policy, to the onset of an infectious disease breakout. Deciding the type and level of interventions a population must consider to mitigate risk and keep the disease under control could mean saving thousands of lives. Many models were quickly introduced highlighting lockdowns, testing, contact tracing, travel policies, later on vaccination, and other intervention strategies along with costs of implementation. Here, we provided a framework for capturing population heterogeneity whose consideration may be crucial when developing a mitigation strategy based on non-pharmaceutical interventions. Precisely, we used age-stratified data to segment our population into groups with unique interactions that policy can affect such as school children or the oldest of the population, and formulated a corresponding optimal control problem considering the economic cost of lockdowns and deaths. We applied our model and numerical methods to census data for the state of New Jersey and determined the most important factors contributing to the cost and the optimal strategies to contained the pandemic impact.
Citation: Ryan Weightman, Temitope Akinode, Benedetto Piccoli. Optimal control of pandemics via a sociodemographic model of non-pharmaceutical interventions[J]. Networks and Heterogeneous Media, 2024, 19(2): 500-525. doi: 10.3934/nhm.2024022
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The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need to quickly respond, via public policy, to the onset of an infectious disease breakout. Deciding the type and level of interventions a population must consider to mitigate risk and keep the disease under control could mean saving thousands of lives. Many models were quickly introduced highlighting lockdowns, testing, contact tracing, travel policies, later on vaccination, and other intervention strategies along with costs of implementation. Here, we provided a framework for capturing population heterogeneity whose consideration may be crucial when developing a mitigation strategy based on non-pharmaceutical interventions. Precisely, we used age-stratified data to segment our population into groups with unique interactions that policy can affect such as school children or the oldest of the population, and formulated a corresponding optimal control problem considering the economic cost of lockdowns and deaths. We applied our model and numerical methods to census data for the state of New Jersey and determined the most important factors contributing to the cost and the optimal strategies to contained the pandemic impact.
In this paper, we consider the following initial boundary value problem for higher-order nonlinear viscous parabolic type equations.
{ut+(−Δ)Lu+(−Δ)Kut−∫t0g(t−s)(−Δ)Lu(s)ds=a|u|R−2u,x∈Ω,t≥0, (1.1)u(x,0)=u0(x)∈HL0(Ω), (1.2)∂iu∂vi=0,i=0,1,2,...L−1x∈∂Ω,t≥0, (1.3) |
where L,K≥1 is an integer number, R≥ max {2,2a,2H} where a>0 is a real number, and Ω⊆RN(N≥1) is a bounded domain with a smooth boundary ∂Ω.
Equation (1.1) includes many important physical models. In the absence of the memory term and dispersive term, and with L=K=1 and a=0, Eq (1.1) becomes the linear pseudo-parabolic equation
ut−Δu−βut=0. | (1.4) |
Showalter and Ting [1] and Gopala Rao and Ting [2] investigated the initial boundary value problem of the linear Eq (1.4) and proved the existence and uniqueness of solutions. Pseudo-parabolic equations appear in many applications for natural sciences, such as radiation with time delay [3], two-phase porous media flow models with dynamic capillarity or hysteresis [4], phase field-type models for unsaturated porous media flows [5], heat conduction models [6], models to describe lightning [7], and so on. A number of authors (Showalter [8,9], DiBenedetto and Showalter [10], Cao and Pop [11], Fan and Pop [12], Cuesta and Pop [13], Schweizer [14], Kaikina [15,16], Matahashi and Tsutsumi [17,18]) have considered this kind of equation by various methods and made a lot of progress. Not only were the existence, uniqueness, and nonexistence results for pseudo-parabolic equations were obtained, but the asymptotic behavior, regularity, and other properties of solutions were also investigated.
In 1972, Gopala Rao et al. [2,19] studied the equation ut−kΔut−Δu=0. They use the principle of maximum value to establish the uniqueness and the existence of solutions. Using the potential well method and the comparison principle, Xu and Su[20] studied the overall existence, nonexistence, and asymptotic behavior of the solution of the equation ut−Δut−Δu=uq, and they also proved that the solution blows up in finite time when J(u0)>d.
When L=K=1, Eq (1.1) becomes
ut−Δu=∫t0b(t−τ)Δu(τ)dτ+f(u). | (1.5) |
Equation (1.5) originates from various mathematical models in engineering and physical sciences, such as in the study of heat conduction in materials with memory. Yin [21] discussed the problem of initial boundary values of Eq (1.5) and obtained the global existence of classical solutions under one-sided growth conditions. Replacing the memory term b(⋅) in (1.5) by −g(⋅), Messaoudi[22] proves the blow-up of the solution with negative and vanishing initial energies. When f(u)=|u|q−2u, Messaoudi[23] proved the result of the blow-up of solutions for this equation with positive initial energy under the appropriate conditions of b and q. Sun and Liu [24] studied the equation
ut−Δu−Δut+∫t0g(t−τ)Δu(τ)dτ=uq−2u. | (1.6) |
They applied the Galerkin method, the concavity method, and the improved potential well method to prove existence of a global solution and the blow-up results of the solution when the initial energy J(u(0))≤d(∞), and Di et al. [25] obtained the blow-up results of the solution of Eq (1.6) when the initial energy is negative or positive and gave some upper bounds on the blow-up time, and they proved lower bounds on the blow up time by applying differential inequalities.
When m>1, Cao and Gu[26] studied the higher order parabolic equations
ut+(−Δ)mu=|u|qu. | (1.7) |
By applying variational theory and the Galerkin method, they obtained existence and uniqueness results for the global solution. When the initial value belongs to the negative index critical space H−s,Rs,Rs=nαw−sα, Wang[27,28] proved the existence and uniqueness of the local and the global solutions of the Cauchy problem of Eq (1.7) by using Lr−Lq estimates. Caristi and Mitidieri [29] applied the method in [30] to prove the existence and nonexistence of the global solution of the initial boundary value problem for higher-order parabolic equations when the initial value decays slowly. Budd et al. [31] studied the self-similar solutions of Eq (1.7) for n=1,k>1. Ishige et al. [32] proved the existence of solutions to the Cauchy problem for a class of higher-order semilinear parabolic equations by introducing a new majority kernel, and also gave the existence of a local time solution for the initial data and necessary conditions for the solution of the Cauchy problem, and determine the strongest singularity of the initial data for the solutions of the Cauchy problem.
When K=L,g=0, problem (1.1) becomes the following n-dimensional higher-order proposed parabolic equation
ut(x,t)+(−1)MΔMut(x,t)+(−1)MΔMu(x,t)=a|u|q−1u. | (1.8) |
Equation (1.8) describes some important physical problems [33] and has attracted the attention of many scholars. Xiao and Li [34] have proved the existence of a non-zero weak solution to the static problem of problem (1.8) by means of the mountain passing theorem, and, additionally, based on the method of potential well theory, they proved the existence of a global weak solution of the development in the equations.
Based on the idea of Li and Tsai [35], this paper discusses the property of the solution of problem (1.1)–(1.3) regarding the solution blow-up in finite time under different initial energies E(0). An upper bound on the blow-up time T∗ is established for different initial energies, and, additionally, a lower bound on the blow-up time T∗ is established by applying a differential inequality.
To describe the main results of this paper, this section gives some notations, generalizations, and important lemmas. We adopt the usual notations and convention. Let HL(Ω) denote the Sobolev space with the usual scalar products and norm, Where HL0(Ω) denotes the closure in HL0(Ω) of C∞0(Ω). For simplicity of notation, hereafter we denote by ||.||p the Lebesgue space Lp(Ω) norm, and by ||.|| the L2(Ω) norm; equivalently we write the norm ||DL⋅|| instead of the HL0(Ω) norm ||.||HL0(Ω), where D denotes the gradient operator, that is, D⋅=▽⋅=(∂∂x1,∂∂x2,....∂∂xn). Moreover, DL⋅=△j⋅ if L=2j, and DL⋅=D△j⋅ if L=2j+1.
Lp(Ω)=Lp,||u||Lp(Ω)=||u||p=(∫Ω|u|pdx)1p, |
HL0(Ω)=WL,20(Ω)=HL0,||u||HL0(Ω)=||u||HL0=(∫Ω|u|2+|DLu|2dx)12. |
To justify the main conclusions of this paper, the following assumptions are made on K L, and the relaxation function g(⋅).
(A1) 1≤K<L are integers with 2a≤R<+∞ if n<2L; 2a≤R≤2nn−2L if n>2L,
where a>1
(A2) g:R+→R+ is a C1 function, satisfing
g(t)≥0,g′(t)≤0,2aR−2a<β=1−∫∞0g(s)ds≤1−∫t0g(s)ds. | (2.1) |
Define the energy functional of problem (1.1)−(1.3) as
E(t)=∫t0∥ut∥2+12(1−∫t0g(s)ds)∥DLu∥2+12(g∘DLu)(t)−aR∥u∥RR | (2.2) |
where (g∘DLu)(t)=∫t0g(t−s)∥DLu(t)−DLu(s)∥2ds.
Both sides of Eq (1.1) are simultaneously multiplied by ut and integrated over Ω, and from (A1) and (2.1) we have that
E′(t)=−∥DKut∥2+12(g′∘DLu)(t)−12g(t)∥DLu∥2<0. | (2.3) |
Definition 2.1 We say that u(x,t) is a weak solution of problem (1.1) if u∈L∞([0,T);HL0(Ω)),ut∈L2([0,T);HL0(Ω)), and u satisfies
(ut,v)+(DLu,DLv)+(DKut,DKv)−∫t0g(t−τ)(DLu(τ),DLv)dτ=(a|u|R−2u,v) |
for all test functions v∈HL0(Ω) and t∈[0,T].
Theorem 2.1 (Local existence) Suppose that (A1) and (A2) hold. If (u0,u1)∈HL0(Ω)×L2(Ω), then there exists T>0 such that problem (1.1) admits a unique local solution u(t) which satisfies
u∈L2([0,T);HL0(Ω)),ut∈L2([0,T);L2(Ω)∩L2([0,T];HK0(Ω)). |
Moreover, at least one of the following statements holds true:
∫t0||u||2+||DLu||2→+∞,as t→T,orT=+∞. |
The existence and uniqueness of the local solution for problem (1.1) can be obtained by using Faedo-Galerkin methods and the contraction mapping principle in [30,36,37,38].
Lemma 2.1[39]. Let q be a real number with 2≤q≤+∞ if n≤2L, and 2≤q≤2nn−2L if n>2L. Then there exists a constant B dependent on Ω and q such that
∥u∥q≤B∥DLu∥,u∈HL0(Ω). | (2.4) |
Remark 2.1. According to Eqs (1.1)−(1.3) and Lemma 2.1, we get
E(t)≥12(1−∫t0g(s)ds)‖DLu‖2+12(g∘DLu)(t)−aR‖u‖RR≥12β‖DLu‖2+12(g∘DLu)(t)−aBRR(‖DLu‖2)R2≥12[(g∘DLu)(t)+β‖DLu‖2]−aBRRβR2[β‖DLu‖2+(g∘DLu)(t)]R2=Q([β‖DLu‖2+(g∘DLu)(t)]12). | (2.5) |
Let Q(ξ)=12ξ2−aBRRβR2ξR,ξ=(β‖DLu‖2+(g∘DLu)(t))12>0. A direct calculation yields that Q′(ξ)=ξ−aBRβR2ξR−1,Q″(ξ)=1−a(R−1)BRβR2ξR−2. From Q′(ξ)=0, we get that ξ1=(βaB2)R2(R−2). When ξ=ξ1, direct calculation gives Q″(ξ)=2−R<0. Therefore, Q(ξ) is maximum at ξ1, and its maximum value is
H=Q(ξ1)=R−22R(βaB2)R(R−2)=R−22Rξ21. | (2.6) |
Lemma 2.2. Let conditions (A1),(A2) hold, u be a solution of ((1.1−(1.3)), E(0)<H, and β12‖DLu0‖>ξ1. Then there exists ξ2>ξ1, such that
β‖DLu‖2+(g∘DLu)(t)≥ξ22. | (2.7) |
Proof. From Remark 2.1, Q(ξ) is increasing on (0,ξ1) and decreasing on (ξ1,+∞). Q(ξ)→−∞,(ξ→∞). According to E(0)<H, there exists ξ′2,ξ2 such that ξ1∈(ξ′2,ξ2), and Q(ξ′2)=Q(ξ2)=E(0). To prove Eq (2.7), we use the converse method. Assume that there exists t0>0 such that
β‖DLu(t0)‖2+(g∘DLu)(t0)<ξ22. | (2.8) |
1) If ξ′2<(β‖DLu(t0)‖2+(g∘DLu)(t0))12<ξ2, then
Q([β‖DLu(t0)‖2+(g∘DLu)(t0)]12)>Q(ξ′2)=Q(ξ2)=E(0)>E(t0). |
This contradicts (2.5).
2) If (β‖DLu(t0)‖2+(g∘DLu)(t0))12≤ξ′2.
As β12||DLu0||>ξ1, according to (2.5), Q(β12‖DLu0‖)<E(0)=Q(ξ2), which implies that β12‖DLu0‖>ξ2. Applying the continuity of (β‖DLu(t0)‖2+(g∘DLu)(t0))12, we know that there exists a t1∈(0,t0) such that ξ′2<(β‖DLu(t1)‖2+(g∘DLu)(t1))12<ξ2. hence, we have Q((β‖DLu(t1)‖2+(g∘DLu)(t1))12)>E(0)≥E(t0), which contradicts (2.5).
The following lemma is very important and is similar to the proof of Lemma 4.2 in [35]. Here, we make some appropriate modifications
Lemma 2.3[40]. Let Γ(t) be a nonincreasing function of [t0,∞],t0≥0. Satisfying the differential inequality
Γ′2(t)≥ρ+ψΓ(t)2+1ε,t≥t0 | (2.9) |
where ρ>0,ψ<0, there exists a positive number T∗ such that
lim | (2.10) |
The upper bound for is
(2.11) |
where , and denotes the maximal existence time of the solution
In this section, we will give some blow-up results for solutions with initial energy ; ; and . Moreover, some upper bounds for blow-up time depending on the sign and size of initial energy are obtained for problem (1.1)–(1.3).
Define the functionals
(3.1) |
(3.2) |
where , and is positive.
Lemma 3.1. Let , and be positive, with . Then,
(3.3) |
Lemma 3.2. Let hold, , and be a solution of . Then, we have
(3.4) |
where
Proof. From , a direct calculation yields that
(3.5) |
(3.6) |
We infer from , and that
(3.7) |
Applying Lemma 3.1 yields
(3.8) |
Combining and , we get
(3.9) |
where .
Therom 3.1. Let assumptions and hold, and . In addition, it is assumed that one of the following conditions holds true:
Then, the solution of problem blows up in finite time, which means the maximum time of is finite and
(3.10) |
Case (1). if , an upper bound on the blow-up time can also be estimated according to the sign and size of energy . Then,
Case (2). if , and , then
Case (3). if , then
where , .
Case (1). if , from we infer that
(3.11) |
Thus, it follows that is monotonically increasing. Therefore,
and the second derivative of Eq gives
(3.12) |
(3.13) |
where
From Lemma 3.2, we have
(3.14) |
Therefore,
(3.15) |
Applying Holder's inequality, Lemma 3.1 yields
(3.16) |
(3.17) |
(3.18) |
Substituting into yields
(3.19) |
From the definitions of , , and , it follows that
(3.20) |
From and , we get , . multiplied by and integrated over gives
(3.21) |
where
(3.22) |
(3.23) |
where .
Combining and Lemma 2.3 shows that there exists such that I.e.
Furthermore, according to Lemma 2.3, the upper bound on the blow-up is given by
(3.24) |
Case (2). if , and , by Lemma 2.2 and the definition of
(3.25) |
Substituting into (3.9) yields
(3.26) |
Hence,
Similar to case (1), we get
(3.27) |
From (3.25) and , we get
(3.28) |
Similar to case (1), we have , . Multiply by and integratig over gives
(3.29) |
where
(3.30) |
(3.31) |
By Lemma 2.3 and , there exists such that
and
(3.32) |
Case (3) : .
Define
(3.33) |
where
(3.34) |
According to (3.31) and
(3.35) |
we have , i.e., . Thereby, we have
(3.36) |
By , we obtain
(3.37) |
Thus, we get
Similar to the process in case (1), it is possible to derive
(3.38) |
By , we conclude that
Consequently,
(3.39) |
Multiplying both sides of by , and integrating over , we have
(3.40) |
(3.41) |
By Lemma 2.3 and , there exists a time such that
and
This section investigates a lower bound on the blow-up time when the solution of Eqs occurs in finite time.
Theorem 4.1. Let and hold, , and be a solution of Eqs . If blows up in the sense of , then the lower bound of the blow-up can be estimated as
Proof. Let
(4.1) |
Differentiating with respect to , we know from (1.1) that
(4.2) |
(4.3) |
(4.4) |
By Lemma 3.1, we have
(4.5) |
Substituting into yields
(4.6) |
Integrating over yields
(4.7) |
If blows up with , then has a lower bound
(4.8) |
which thereby completes the proof of Theorem 4.1.
By using concavity analysis, we get the blow-up results of the solution when the initial energy is negative or positive and an upper bound on the blow-up time . In addition, a lower bound on the blow-up time is obtained by applying differential inequalities in the case where the solution has a blow-up.
The authors declare they have not used Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools in the creation of this article.
The authors declare there is no conflict of interest.
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