Bi-fidelity stochastic collocation methods for epidemic transport models with uncertainties

Giulia Bertaglia; Liu Liu; Lorenzo Pareschi; Xueyu Zhu; Giulia Bertaglia; Liu Liu; Lorenzo Pareschi; Xueyu Zhu

doi:10.3934/nhm.2022013

Networks and Heterogeneous Media

2022, Volume 17, Issue 3: 401-425. doi: 10.3934/nhm.2022013

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Bi-fidelity stochastic collocation methods for epidemic transport models with uncertainties

1.
Istituto Nazionale di Alta Matematica "Francesco Severi" (INdAM), 00185 Roma, Italy
2.
Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Ferrara, 44121 Ferrara, Italy
3.
Department of Mathematics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, N.T., Hong Kong
4.
Department of Mathematics, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242, USA

Received: 01 October 2021 Revised: 01 January 2022 Published: 23 March 2022
Primary: 65C30, 65M08, 65L04, 92D30; Secondary: 82C40, 35L50, 35K57

Uncertainty in data is certainly one of the main problems in epidemiology, as shown by the recent COVID-19 pandemic. The need for efficient methods capable of quantifying uncertainty in the mathematical model is essential in order to produce realistic scenarios of the spread of infection. In this paper, we introduce a bi-fidelity approach to quantify uncertainty in spatially dependent epidemic models. The approach is based on evaluating a high-fidelity model on a small number of samples properly selected from a large number of evaluations of a low-fidelity model. In particular, we will consider the class of multiscale transport models recently introduced in [13,7] as the high-fidelity reference and use simple two-velocity discrete models for low-fidelity evaluations. Both models share the same diffusive behavior and are solved with ad-hoc asymptotic-preserving numerical discretizations. A series of numerical experiments confirm the validity of the approach.

Correction: This article is copyrighted in 2022. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause.
- Bi-fidelity methods,
- uncertainty quantification,
- kinetic transport equations,
- epidemic models,
- diffusion limit,
- asymptotic-preserving schemes
Citation: Giulia Bertaglia, Liu Liu, Lorenzo Pareschi, Xueyu Zhu. Bi-fidelity stochastic collocation methods for epidemic transport models with uncertainties[J]. Networks and Heterogeneous Media, 2022, 17(3): 401-425. doi: 10.3934/nhm.2022013

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Abstract

Uncertainty in data is certainly one of the main problems in epidemiology, as shown by the recent COVID-19 pandemic. The need for efficient methods capable of quantifying uncertainty in the mathematical model is essential in order to produce realistic scenarios of the spread of infection. In this paper, we introduce a bi-fidelity approach to quantify uncertainty in spatially dependent epidemic models. The approach is based on evaluating a high-fidelity model on a small number of samples properly selected from a large number of evaluations of a low-fidelity model. In particular, we will consider the class of multiscale transport models recently introduced in [13,7] as the high-fidelity reference and use simple two-velocity discrete models for low-fidelity evaluations. Both models share the same diffusive behavior and are solved with ad-hoc asymptotic-preserving numerical discretizations. A series of numerical experiments confirm the validity of the approach.

Correction: This article is copyrighted in 2022. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause.

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