Optimal real-time power dispatch of power grid with wind energy forecasting under extreme weather

Yixin Zhuo; Ling Li; Jian Tang; Wenchuan Meng; Zhanhong Huang; Kui Huang; Jiaqiu Hu; Yiming Qin; Houjian Zhan; Zhencheng Liang; Yixin Zhuo; Ling Li; Jian Tang; Wenchuan Meng; Zhanhong Huang; Kui Huang; Jiaqiu Hu; Yiming Qin; Houjian Zhan; Zhencheng Liang

doi:10.3934/mbe.2023642

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

2023, Volume 20, Issue 8: 14353-14376. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2023642

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Research article

Optimal real-time power dispatch of power grid with wind energy forecasting under extreme weather

1.
Dispatching Control Center of Guangxi Power Grid, Nanning 530000, China
2.
Energy Development Research Institute, China Southern Power Grid, Guangzhou 510000, China
3.
College of Electric Power, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510641, China

Academic Editor: Yang Kuang

Received: 20 February 2023 Revised: 04 June 2023 Accepted: 06 June 2023 Published: 30 June 2023

With breakthroughs in the power electronics industry, the stability and rapid power regulation of wind power generation have been improved. Its power generation technology is becoming more and more mature. However, there are still weaknesses in the operation and control of power systems under the influence of extreme weather events, especially in real-time power dispatch. To optimally distribute the power of the regulation resources in a more stable manner, a wind energy forecasting-based power dispatch model with time-control intervals optimization is proposed. In this model, the outage of the wind energy under extreme weather is analyzed by an autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA). Additionally, the other regulation resources are used to balance the corresponding wind power drop and power mismatch. Meanwhile, an algorithm names weighted mean of vectors (INFO) is employed to solve the real-time power dispatch and minimize the power deviation between the power command and real output. Lastly, the performance of the proposed optimal real-time power dispatch is executed in a simulation model with ten regulation resources. The simulation tests show that the combination of ARIMA and INFO can effectively improve the power control performance of the PD-WEF system.
- wind energy forecasting,
- real-time power dispatch,
- extreme weather,
- INFO,
- power outage
Citation: Yixin Zhuo, Ling Li, Jian Tang, Wenchuan Meng, Zhanhong Huang, Kui Huang, Jiaqiu Hu, Yiming Qin, Houjian Zhan, Zhencheng Liang. Optimal real-time power dispatch of power grid with wind energy forecasting under extreme weather[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2023, 20(8): 14353-14376. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2023642

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Abstract

With breakthroughs in the power electronics industry, the stability and rapid power regulation of wind power generation have been improved. Its power generation technology is becoming more and more mature. However, there are still weaknesses in the operation and control of power systems under the influence of extreme weather events, especially in real-time power dispatch. To optimally distribute the power of the regulation resources in a more stable manner, a wind energy forecasting-based power dispatch model with time-control intervals optimization is proposed. In this model, the outage of the wind energy under extreme weather is analyzed by an autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA). Additionally, the other regulation resources are used to balance the corresponding wind power drop and power mismatch. Meanwhile, an algorithm names weighted mean of vectors (INFO) is employed to solve the real-time power dispatch and minimize the power deviation between the power command and real output. Lastly, the performance of the proposed optimal real-time power dispatch is executed in a simulation model with ten regulation resources. The simulation tests show that the combination of ARIMA and INFO can effectively improve the power control performance of the PD-WEF system.

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