SIRVVD model-based verification of the effect of first and second doses of COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in Japan

Yuto Omae; Yohei Kakimoto; Makoto Sasaki; Jun Toyotani; Kazuyuki Hara; Yasuhiro Gon; Hirotaka Takahashi; Yuto Omae; Yohei Kakimoto; Makoto Sasaki; Jun Toyotani; Kazuyuki Hara; Yasuhiro Gon; Hirotaka Takahashi

doi:10.3934/mbe.2022047

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

2022, Volume 19, Issue 1: 1026-1040. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2022047

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Research article Special Issues

SIRVVD model-based verification of the effect of first and second doses of COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in Japan

1.
College of Industrial Technology, Nihon University, Izumi, Narashino, Chiba, Japan
2.
Nihon University School of Medicine, Ooyaguchi, Itabashi, Tokyo, Japan
3.
Research Center for Space Science, Advanced Research Laboratories, Tokyo City University, Todoroki, Setagaya, Tokyo, Japan

Received: 30 August 2021 Accepted: 31 October 2021 Published: 26 November 2021

As of August 2021, COVID-19 is still spreading in Japan. Vaccination, one of the key measures to bring COVID-19 under control, began in February 2021. Previous studies have reported that COVID-19 vaccination reduces the number of infections and mortality rates. However, simulations of spreading infection have suggested that vaccination in Japan is insufficient. Therefore, we developed a susceptible–infected–recovered–vaccination1–vaccination2–death model to verify the effect of the first and second vaccination doses on reducing the number of infected individuals in Japan; this includes an infection simulation. The results confirm that appropriate vaccination measures will sufficiently reduce the number of infected individuals and reduce the mortality rate.
- Susceptible–infected–recovered model,
- Susceptible–infected–recovered–vaccination1–vaccination2–death model,
- COVID-19,
- SARS-CoV-2,
- Vaccination
Citation: Yuto Omae, Yohei Kakimoto, Makoto Sasaki, Jun Toyotani, Kazuyuki Hara, Yasuhiro Gon, Hirotaka Takahashi. SIRVVD model-based verification of the effect of first and second doses of COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in Japan[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2022, 19(1): 1026-1040. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2022047

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Abstract

As of August 2021, COVID-19 is still spreading in Japan. Vaccination, one of the key measures to bring COVID-19 under control, began in February 2021. Previous studies have reported that COVID-19 vaccination reduces the number of infections and mortality rates. However, simulations of spreading infection have suggested that vaccination in Japan is insufficient. Therefore, we developed a susceptible–infected–recovered–vaccination1–vaccination2–death model to verify the effect of the first and second vaccination doses on reducing the number of infected individuals in Japan; this includes an infection simulation. The results confirm that appropriate vaccination measures will sufficiently reduce the number of infected individuals and reduce the mortality rate.

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