At COP26, Vietnam committed to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. Up to now, several strategic policies and master plans concerning energy and power development along with emission reduction have been introduced. The national power development plan for the 2021–2030 vision to 2050 (PDP8) has directed for gas-to-hydrogen fuel conversion at gas turbine power sources in the national power system when the technology is commercialized and the cost is appropriate. Therefore, gas turbine power plants (GTPPs) with a total capacity of approximately 32.4 GW by 2050, using domestic natural gas and imported liquefied natural gas (LNG), will be expected to switch to using green hydrogen (GH2) to cut greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions. This study uses the SWOT analysis and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method to quantitatively analyze and examine the factors influencing the perspective of GH2 conversion at CTPPs in Vietnam. Research results show that among the four groups of Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats being examined, the most influencing one is Weaknesses with the highest weight of 0.381, followed by Threats (0.343), suggesting that the GH2 conversion ambition will be facing significant challenges and difficulties. At the level of element factors in the groups, the lack of infrastructure and insufficient legal framework/specific incentive mechanisms are the biggest weaknesses, with weights of 0.362 and 0.326, respectively, while the consistent policies of the state and abundant potential of renewable energy resources, weighing 0.446 and 0.235, respectively, are Vietnam's prominent strengths. Additionally, remarkable opportunities include the effective exploitation of available renewable energy resources (0.338) and great contribution to reducing emissions (0.288), while the main challenges remain the lack of capital (0.471) and high GH2 cost (0.284). The research results clarify the typical problems of a developing country like Vietnam in the global energy transition trend toward carbon neutrality: high potential of renewable energy sources, great political determination, and ambitious goals for green growth, but significant difficulties and challenges due to the low starting point and limited technological and financial resources while energy demand is constantly increasing. Thus, some strategic solutions are proposed, including taking advantage of internal strengths to avoid/limit external threats, making the most of strengths to exploit opportunities, and minimizing weaknesses to take advantage of opportunities and to limit the threats.
Citation: Duong Doan Ngoc, Kien Duong Trung, Phap Vu Minh, Thao Nguyen Van. Assessing factors influencing green hydrogen conversion at Vietnam's gas turbine power plants using combined SWOT-AHP analysis method[J]. AIMS Energy, 2024, 12(5): 1054-1074. doi: 10.3934/energy.2024050
At COP26, Vietnam committed to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. Up to now, several strategic policies and master plans concerning energy and power development along with emission reduction have been introduced. The national power development plan for the 2021–2030 vision to 2050 (PDP8) has directed for gas-to-hydrogen fuel conversion at gas turbine power sources in the national power system when the technology is commercialized and the cost is appropriate. Therefore, gas turbine power plants (GTPPs) with a total capacity of approximately 32.4 GW by 2050, using domestic natural gas and imported liquefied natural gas (LNG), will be expected to switch to using green hydrogen (GH2) to cut greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions. This study uses the SWOT analysis and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method to quantitatively analyze and examine the factors influencing the perspective of GH2 conversion at CTPPs in Vietnam. Research results show that among the four groups of Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats being examined, the most influencing one is Weaknesses with the highest weight of 0.381, followed by Threats (0.343), suggesting that the GH2 conversion ambition will be facing significant challenges and difficulties. At the level of element factors in the groups, the lack of infrastructure and insufficient legal framework/specific incentive mechanisms are the biggest weaknesses, with weights of 0.362 and 0.326, respectively, while the consistent policies of the state and abundant potential of renewable energy resources, weighing 0.446 and 0.235, respectively, are Vietnam's prominent strengths. Additionally, remarkable opportunities include the effective exploitation of available renewable energy resources (0.338) and great contribution to reducing emissions (0.288), while the main challenges remain the lack of capital (0.471) and high GH2 cost (0.284). The research results clarify the typical problems of a developing country like Vietnam in the global energy transition trend toward carbon neutrality: high potential of renewable energy sources, great political determination, and ambitious goals for green growth, but significant difficulties and challenges due to the low starting point and limited technological and financial resources while energy demand is constantly increasing. Thus, some strategic solutions are proposed, including taking advantage of internal strengths to avoid/limit external threats, making the most of strengths to exploit opportunities, and minimizing weaknesses to take advantage of opportunities and to limit the threats.
| [1] | Government of Vietnam (2024) National strategy for energy development to 2030, vision to 2045. Government of Vietnam, Hanoi, Vietnam. Available from: https://thuvienphapluat.vn/news/headlines/61783/vietnam-s-national-energy-development-objectives-by-2030-with-a-vision-toward-2045#google_vignette. |
| [2] | Government of Vietnam (2024) Vietnam's hydrogen energy development strategy to 2030, vision to 2050. Government of Vietnam, Hanoi, Vietnam. Available from: https://english.luatvietnam.vn/cong-nghiep/decision-165-qd-ttg-2024-approve-vietnams-hydrogen-energy-development-strategy-through-2030-296005-d1.html. |
| [3] | Government of Vietnam (2023), National power development plan for period 2021–2030, vision to 2050. Government of Vietnam, Hanoi, Vietnam. Available from: https://en.baochinhphu.vn/govt-approves-plan-to-realize-national-energy-master-plan-for-2021-2030-111240426113129831.htm. |
| [4] |
Shi Xunpeng (2016) The future of ASEAN energy mix: A SWOT analysis. Renewable Sustainable Energy Rev 53: 672–680. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.09.010 doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2015.09.010
|
| [5] |
Dong DX, Minh PV, Ninh NQ, et al. (2023) Development of RE sources to serve agriculture in Vietnam: A strategic assessment using the SWOT Analysis. Eng, Technol Appl Sci Res 13: 11721–11727. https://doi.org/10.48084/etasr.6211 doi: 10.48084/etasr.6211
|
| [6] |
Igliński B (2019) Hydro energy in Poland: The history, current state, potential, SWOT analysis, environmental aspects. Int J Energy Water Resour 3: 61–72. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42108-019-00008-w doi: 10.1007/s42108-019-00008-w
|
| [7] |
Karim R, Muhammad-Sukki F, Hemmati M, et al. (2020) Paving towards strategic investment decision: A SWOT analysis of renewable energy in Bangladesh. Sustainability 12: 10674. https://doi.org/10.3390/su122410674 doi: 10.3390/su122410674
|
| [8] |
Khan MI, Al-Ghamdi SG (2023) Hydrogen economy for sustainable development in GCC countries: A SWOT analysis considering current situation, challenges, and prospects. Int J Hydrogen Energy 48: 10315–10344. https://doi: 10.1016/j.ijhydene.2022.12.033 doi: 10.1016/j.ijhydene.2022.12.033
|
| [9] |
Ren J, Gao S, Tan S, et al. (2014) Hydrogen economy in China: Strengths-weaknesses-opportunities-threats analysis and strategies prioritization. Renewable Sustainable Energy Rev 41: 1230–1243. https://DOI:10.1016/j.rser.2014.09.014 doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2014.09.014
|
| [10] |
Saaty RW (1987) The analytic hierarchy Process-What it is and how it is used. Math Modell 9: 161–176. https://doi.org/10.1016/0270-0255(87)90473-8 doi: 10.1016/0270-0255(87)90473-8
|
| [11] | Saaty TL (2000) Fundamentals of Decision Making and Priority Theory with the Analytic Hierarchy Process. RWS Publications: Pittsburgh, PA, USA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-9799-9_2 |
| [12] |
Ananda J, Herath G (2003) The use of analytic hierarchy process to incorporate stakeholder preferences into regional forest planning. For Policy Econ 5: 13–26. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1389-9341(02)00043-6 doi: 10.1016/S1389-9341(02)00043-6
|
| [13] |
Al-Harbi KMA (2001) Application of the AHP in project management. Int J Proj Manage 19: 19–27. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0263-7863(99)00038-1 doi: 10.1016/S0263-7863(99)00038-1
|
| [14] |
Jovanović B, Filipović J, Bakić V (2015) Prioritization of manufacturing sectors in Serbia for energy management improvement—AHP method. Energy Convers Manage 98: 225–235. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2015.03.107 doi: 10.1016/j.enconman.2015.03.107
|
| [15] |
Miciuła I, Nowakowska-Grunt J (2019) Using the AHP method to select an energy supplier for household in Poland. Proc Comput Sci 159: 2324–2334. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2019.09.407 doi: 10.1016/j.procs.2019.09.407
|
| [16] |
Elmahmoudi F, Abra OEK, Raihani A, et al. (2020) Elaboration of a wind energy potential map in morocco using gis and analytic hierarchy process. Eng Technol Appl Sci Res 10: 6068–6075. https://doi.org/10.48084/etasr.3692 doi: 10.48084/etasr.3692
|
| [17] |
Amer AE, Rahmani K, Lebedev VA (2020) Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method for selection of phase change materials for solar energy storage applications. J Phys: Conference Series, 1614. https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1614/1/012022 doi: 10.1088/1742-6596/1614/1/012022
|
| [18] |
Chiu WH, Lin WC, Chen CN, et al. (2021) Using an analytical hierarchy process to analyze the development of the green energy industry. Energies 14: 4452. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14154452. doi: 10.3390/en14154452
|
| [19] |
Chang HH, Huang WC (2006) Application of a quantification SWOT analytical method. Math Comput Modell 43: 158–169. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mcm.2005.08.016 doi: 10.1016/j.mcm.2005.08.016
|
| [20] |
Pesonen M, Kurttila M, Kangas J, et al. (2001) Assessing the priorities using A'WOT among resource management strategies at the Finnish Forest and Park Service. For Sci 47: 534–541. https://doi.org/10.1093/forestscience/47.4.534 doi: 10.1093/forestscience/47.4.534
|
| [21] |
Sindhu S, Nehra V, Luthra S (2017) Solar energy deployment for sustainable future of India: Hybrid SWOC-AHP analysis. Renewable Sustainable Energy Rev 72: 1138–1151. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.10.033 doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2016.10.033
|
| [22] |
Rahimirad Z, Sadabadi AA (2023) Green hydrogen technology development and usage policymaking in Iran using SWOT analysis and MCDM methods. Int J Hydrogen Energy 48: 15179–15194. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2023.01.035 doi: 10.1016/j.ijhydene.2023.01.035
|
| [23] |
Lee Y, Kim YJ, Lee MC (2021) Improving public acceptance of H2 stations: SWOT-AHP analysis of South Korea. Int J Hydrogen Energy 46: 17597–607. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2021.02.182 doi: 10.1016/j.ijhydene.2021.02.182
|
| [24] |
Inal OB, Senol YE (2024) SWOT-AHP analysis of different colours of hydrogen for decarbonization of shipping. Int J Environ Geoinformatics 11: 29–37. https://doi.org/10.30897/ijegeo.1480096 doi: 10.30897/ijegeo.1480096
|
| [25] |
Nguyen HL (2021) Potential market and impact of clean hydrogen development to 2050 in Vietnam. Petrovietnam J 12: 40–47. https://doi.org/10.47800/PVJ.2021.12-04 doi: 10.47800/PVJ.2021.12-04
|
| [26] |
Hoang AT, Pandey A, Lichtfouse E, et al. (2023) Green hydrogen economy: Prospects and policies in Vietnam. Int J Hydrogen Energy 48: 31049–31062. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2023.05.306 doi: 10.1016/j.ijhydene.2023.05.306
|
| [27] | Ngoc DD, Trung KD, Minh PV (2023) Assessing the possibility of hydrogen application in Vietnam's energy system towards Net Zero emissions by 2050. Conference Paper, Asia Meeting on Environment and Electrical Engineering (EEE-AM), Hanoi, Vietnam. https://doi.org/10.1109/EEE-AM58328.2023.10395185 |
| [28] |
Phap VM, Sang LQ, Ninh NQ, et al. (2022) Feasibility analysis of hydrogen production potential from rooftop solar power plant for industrial zones in Vietnam. Energy Rep 8: 14089–14101. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2022.10.337 doi: 10.1016/j.egyr.2022.10.337
|
| [29] | Huy NQ, Son TT (2017) Evaluation of standalone solar hydrogen for off-grid electrification in remote areas of Vietnam. The University of Danang—J Sci Technol 11: 46–50. Available from: https://www.neliti.com/publications/452831/evaluation-of-standalone-solar-hydrogen-for-off-grid-electrification-in-remote-a. |
| [30] |
Duong DN, Kien DT, Phap VM (2024) A power system study on hydrogen conversion pathways for gas turbine power plants in Vietnam towards net zero target. Energies 17: 3335. https://doi.org/10.3390/en17133335 doi: 10.3390/en17133335
|
| [31] | Klaus D, Goepel, BPMSG (2022) AHP Priority Calculator. Available from: https://bpmsg.com/ahp/ahp-calc.php. |
| [32] | Government of Vietnam (2022) National Strategy on Climate Change for the period up to 2050. Government of Vietnam, Hanoi, Vietnam. Available from: https://thuvienphapluat.vn/van-ban/EN/Tai-nguyen-Moi-truong/Decision-896-QD-TTg-2022-approving-the-National-strategy-for-climate-change-until-2050/525126/tieng-anh.aspx. |
| [33] | Government of Vietnam (2023) National energy development plan for period 2021–2030, vision to 2050. Government of Vietnam, Hanoi, Vietnam. Available from: https://english.luatvietnam.vn/cong-nghiep/decision-893-qd-ttg-2023-national-energy-master-plan-for-the-2021-2030-period-261469-d1.html. |
| [34] | Mitsubishi Power (2021) Hydrogen Power Generation Handbook. Mitsubishi Power, Tokyo, Japan. Available from: https://power.mhi.com/catalogue/pdf/hydrogen_en.pdf. |
| [35] | General Electric (2022) Hydrogen for Power Generation: Experience, Requirements, and Implications for Use in Gas Turbines. General Electric, Cincinnati, OH, United States. Available from: https://www.gevernova.com/content/dam/gepower-new/global/en_US/downloads/gas-new-site/future-of-energy/hydrogen-for-power-gen-gea34805.pdf. |
| [36] | IEA (2023), Global Hydrogen Review 2023. IEA, Paris, France. Available from: https://www.iea.org/reports/global-hydrogen-review-2023. |
| [37] | Siemens Energy (2022) Hydrogen Power and Heat with Siemens Energy Gas Turbine. Siemens Energy: Munich, Germany. Available from: https://www.siemens-energy.com/us/en/home/publications/whitepaper/download-hydrogen-gas-turbine-readiness-white-paper.html. |
| [38] | Ansaldo Energia (2022) Hydrogen Technology. Ansaldo Energia, Genova, Italy. Available from: https://www.ansaldoenergia.com/fileadmin/Brochure/AnsaldoEnergia-HYDROGENTECHNOLOGY-20220622.pdf. |
| [39] | ETN Global (2020) Hydrogen Gas Turbine—The Path Towards a Zero-carbon Gas Turbine. ETN Global, Brussels, Belgium. Available from: https://etn.global/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ETN-Hydrogen-Gas-Turbines-report.pdf. |
| [40] | National Energy Technology Laboratory (U.S) (2022) A Literature Review of Hydrogen and Natural Gas Turbines: Current State of The Art With Regard to Performance and NOx Control. National Energy Technology Laboratory (U.S), Morgantown, WV, United States. Available from: https://netl.doe.gov/sites/default/files/publication/A-Literature-Review-of-Hydrogen-and-Natural-Gas-Turbines-081222.pdf. |
| [41] | U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2023) Hydrogen in Combustion Turbine Electric Generating Units—Technical Support Document. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C., United States. Available from: https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2023-05/TSD%20-%20Hydrogen%20in%20Combustion%20Turbine%20EGUs.pdf. |
| [42] | Siemens Energy (2023) HYFLEXPOWER consortium successfully operates a gas turbine with 100 percent renewable hydrogen, a world first. Available from: https://www.siemens-energy.com/global/en/home/press-releases/hyflexpower-consortium-successfully-operates-a-gas-turbine-with-.html. |
| [43] | World-energy.org (2022) World's largest hydrogen fuel blending project completed. Available from: https://www.world-energy.org/article/25332.html. |
| [44] | Jack Burke (2023) Power plants of the world: A hydrogen pilot by GE. Available from: https://www.powerprogress.com/news/power-plants-of-the-world-a-hydrogen-pilot-by-ge/8027273.article. |
| [45] | Mitsubishi Power (2023) Mitsubishi Power delivers hydrogen-ready gas turbines to "IPP Renewed" project in Utah to meet decarbonization goals in the Western US. Available from: https://power.mhi.com/regions/amer/news/20230727. |
| [46] | Siemens Energy (2022) What the world could learn from Austria's first hydrogen field tests. Available from: https://www.siemens-energy.com/global/en/home/stories/donaustadt-hydrogen-trial.html. |
| [47] | IEA (2023) ETP Clean Energy Technology Guide. Available from: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/etp-clean-energy-technology-guide. |
| [48] | IRENA (2022) Global H2 trade to meet the 1.5 ℃ climate goal: Part Ⅲ—green H2 cost and potential. IRENA, Masdar City, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Available from: https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2022/May/IRENA_Global_Hydrogen_Trade_Costs_2022.pdf. |
| [49] | Mojiri A, Wang Y, Rahbari A, et al. (2023) Current and future cost of large-scale GH2 generation. Proceedings of the Australian Hydrogen Research Conference 2023 (AHRC 2023). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4477925 |
| [50] | BloombergNEF (2023) 2023 Hydrogen levelized cost update: Green beats gray. Available from: https://about.bnef.com/blog/2023-hydrogen-levelized-cost-update-green-beats-gray/. |
| [51] | Vietnam Institute of Energy, UNDP to Vietnam (2023) Overall assessment of GH2 production from solar and wind energy sources and potential use in Vietnam. Vietnam Institute of Energy, UNDP to Vietnam, Hanoi, Vietnam. Available from: https://www.undp.org/vietnam/press-releases/unlocking-potential-hydrogen-development-viet-nam. |
| [52] | European Union (2021) Assessment of H2 Delivery Options. European Union, Brussels, Belgium. Available from: https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/document/download/5cdbd6f7-7ab4-447b-be0a-dde0a25198ab_en. |
| [53] | World Bank (2022) Vietnam Country Climate and Development Report. World Bank, Washington, D.C., United States. Available from: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/29e72556-d255-5c50-a086-245c1ccc4704. |
Figures(7) / Tables(4)
Duong Doan Ngoc, Kien Duong Trung, Phap Vu Minh, Thao Nguyen Van. Assessing factors influencing green hydrogen conversion at Vietnam's gas turbine power plants using combined SWOT-AHP analysis method[J]. AIMS Energy, 2024, 12(5): 1054-1074. doi: 10.3934/energy.2024050
DownLoad: