Analysis of Caputo fractional-order model for COVID-19 with non-pharmaceuticals interventions and vaccine hesitancy

Mlyashimbi Helikumi; Paride O. Lolika; Steady Mushayabasa; Mlyashimbi Helikumi; Paride O. Lolika; Steady Mushayabasa

doi:10.3934/medsci.2023017

AIMS Medical Science

2023, Volume 10, Issue 3: 196-222. doi: 10.3934/medsci.2023017

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Analysis of Caputo fractional-order model for COVID-19 with non-pharmaceuticals interventions and vaccine hesitancy

1.
Mbeya University of Science and Technology, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Science and Technical Education, P.O. Box 131, Mbeya, Tanzania
2.
University of Juba, Department of Mathematics, P.O. Box 82 Juba, Central Equatoria, South Sudan
3.
Department of Mathematics & Computational Sciences, University of Zimbabwe, P.O. Box MP 167, Harare, Zimbabwe

Received: 04 March 2023 Revised: 17 July 2023 Accepted: 25 July 2023 Published: 15 August 2023

In this paper, we propose a fractional order Coronavirus (COVID-19) model incorporating non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccine hesitancy. The proposed model was calibrated with data from literature and validated with reported daily cases of COVID-19 from Wuhan, China. We derived the reproduction number and demonstrated that it is an important threshold parameter for disease persistence and extinction. We examined the relationship between the reproduction number and model parameters. Our findings underscore the importance of awareness and vaccine uptake on mitigating the spread of COVID-19.
- COVID-19,
- mathematical model,
- Caputo derivative,
- non-pharmaceutical interventions,
- vaccine hesitancy,
- simulations
Citation: Mlyashimbi Helikumi, Paride O. Lolika, Steady Mushayabasa. Analysis of Caputo fractional-order model for COVID-19 with non-pharmaceuticals interventions and vaccine hesitancy[J]. AIMS Medical Science, 2023, 10(3): 196-222. doi: 10.3934/medsci.2023017

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Abstract

In this paper, we propose a fractional order Coronavirus (COVID-19) model incorporating non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccine hesitancy. The proposed model was calibrated with data from literature and validated with reported daily cases of COVID-19 from Wuhan, China. We derived the reproduction number and demonstrated that it is an important threshold parameter for disease persistence and extinction. We examined the relationship between the reproduction number and model parameters. Our findings underscore the importance of awareness and vaccine uptake on mitigating the spread of COVID-19.

References

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