Modeling the imported malaria to north Africa and the absorption effect of the immigrants

Souâd Yacheur; Ali Moussaoui; Abdessamad Tridane; Souâd Yacheur; Ali Moussaoui; Abdessamad Tridane

doi:10.3934/mbe.2019045

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

2019, Volume 16, Issue 2: 967-989. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2019045

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Research article Special Issues

Modeling the imported malaria to north Africa and the absorption effect of the immigrants

1.
Department of Mathematics, University of Tlemcen, B.P.119, Tlemcen 13000 Algeria
2.
Department of Mathematical Sciences, United Arab Emirates University, P.O. Box 15551, Al Ain, UAE

Received: 18 October 2018 Accepted: 24 December 2018 Published: 30 January 2019

As Malaria represents one of the major health burdens in Africa, there is a risk of reappearance of this vector-borne disease in malaria-free or low risk countries such as those in North Africa. One of the factors that can lead to this situation is the flow of sub-Saharan immigrants trying to reach Europe through North Africa. In this work, we investigate such a possibility via a mathematical model. We assume that the immigrant (non-locals) population has a carrying capacity that limits their numbers in the host country, and we study how they might contribute to the disease spread. Our analysis gave conditions of the persistence of the disease and showed that the non-local population could have a positive effect by reducing the spread of Malaria.
- malaria,
- strains,
- sub-saharan immigrants,
- carrying capacity,
- basic reproduction number,
- stability,
- persistence
Citation: Souâd Yacheur, Ali Moussaoui, Abdessamad Tridane. Modeling the imported malaria to north Africa and the absorption effect of the immigrants[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2019, 16(2): 967-989. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2019045

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Abstract

As Malaria represents one of the major health burdens in Africa, there is a risk of reappearance of this vector-borne disease in malaria-free or low risk countries such as those in North Africa. One of the factors that can lead to this situation is the flow of sub-Saharan immigrants trying to reach Europe through North Africa. In this work, we investigate such a possibility via a mathematical model. We assume that the immigrant (non-locals) population has a carrying capacity that limits their numbers in the host country, and we study how they might contribute to the disease spread. Our analysis gave conditions of the persistence of the disease and showed that the non-local population could have a positive effect by reducing the spread of Malaria.

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