Prediction of influenza peaks in Russian cities: Comparing the accuracy of two SEIR models

Vasiliy N. Leonenko; Sergey V. Ivanov; Vasiliy N. Leonenko; Sergey V. Ivanov

doi:10.3934/mbe.2018009

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

2018, Volume 15, Issue 1: 209-232. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2018009

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Prediction of influenza peaks in Russian cities: Comparing the accuracy of two SEIR models

ITMO University, 49 Kronverksky Pr, 197101, St. Petersburg, Russia

Received: 08 November 2016 Accepted: 06 April 2017 Published: 01 February 2018
MSC : 37N25, 65C20, 92C60

This paper is dedicated to the application of two types of SEIR models to the influenza outbreak peak prediction in Russian cities. The first one is a continuous SEIR model described by a system of ordinary differential equations. The second one is a discrete model formulated as a set of difference equations, which was used in the Baroyan-Rvachev modeling framework for the influenza outbreak prediction in the Soviet Union. The outbreak peak day and height predictions were performed by calibrating both models to varied-size samples of long-term data on ARI incidence in Moscow, Saint Petersburg, and Novosibirsk. The accuracy of the modeling predictions on incomplete data was compared with a number of other peak forecasting methods tested on the same dataset. The drawbacks of the described prediction approach and possible ways to overcome them are discussed.
- Mathematical modeling,
- epidemiology,
- influenza,
- prediction
Citation: Vasiliy N. Leonenko, Sergey V. Ivanov. Prediction of influenza peaks in Russian cities: Comparing the accuracy of two SEIR models[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2018, 15(1): 209-232. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2018009

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Abstract

This paper is dedicated to the application of two types of SEIR models to the influenza outbreak peak prediction in Russian cities. The first one is a continuous SEIR model described by a system of ordinary differential equations. The second one is a discrete model formulated as a set of difference equations, which was used in the Baroyan-Rvachev modeling framework for the influenza outbreak prediction in the Soviet Union. The outbreak peak day and height predictions were performed by calibrating both models to varied-size samples of long-term data on ARI incidence in Moscow, Saint Petersburg, and Novosibirsk. The accuracy of the modeling predictions on incomplete data was compared with a number of other peak forecasting methods tested on the same dataset. The drawbacks of the described prediction approach and possible ways to overcome them are discussed.

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