Modeling the SARS-CoV-2 sublineages XBB and BQ.1 in Mexico, considering multiple vaccinations, booster dose, waning immunity and cross-immunity

Ugo Avila-Ponce de León; Angel G. C. Pérez; Eric Avila-Vales; Ugo Avila-Ponce de León; Angel G. C. Pérez; Eric Avila-Vales

doi:10.3934/era.2024053

Electronic Research Archive

2024, Volume 32, Issue 2: 1082-1125. doi: 10.3934/era.2024053

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Research article

Modeling the SARS-CoV-2 sublineages XBB and BQ.1 in Mexico, considering multiple vaccinations, booster dose, waning immunity and cross-immunity

1.
Human Systems Biology Laboratory, Instituto Nacional de Medicina Genómica (INMEGEN), Mexico City, Mexico
2.
Facultad de Matemáticas, Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán, Anillo Periférico Norte, Tablaje Catastral 13615, C.P. 97119, Mérida, Yucatán, Mexico

Received: 09 October 2023 Revised: 24 November 2023 Accepted: 22 December 2023 Published: 25 January 2024

In a population with ongoing vaccinations, the trajectory of a pandemic is determined by how the virus spreads in the unvaccinated, vaccinated without boosters, and vaccinated with boosters, which will exhibit distinct transmission dynamics based on different levels of natural and vaccine-induced immunity. We found that enhancing the use of face masks in a partially vaccinated population is associated with a reduction of new infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. We highly recommend the use of a face mask with at least a 50% efficiency, such as improved cloth and surgical face masks, due to its effectivity and cost ratio. Our simulations indicated that there may be two upcoming Omicron waves (in the last months of 2022 and in May 2023). The magnitude of these waves will be 75% and 40% lower than their prior wave. Moreover, the size of these waves is heavily influenced by immunity parameters like waning immunity and cross-immunity protection. Hence, we recommend continuing the use of face masks to decrease transmission because we are not developing sterilizing immunity if we get infected by a prior sublineage, meaning that we can still get infected regardless of the acquired immunity.
- Omicron,
- vaccination,
- waning immunity,
- ordinary differential equations,
- Mexico,
- vaccine heterogeneity,
- COVID-19
Citation: Ugo Avila-Ponce de León, Angel G. C. Pérez, Eric Avila-Vales. Modeling the SARS-CoV-2 sublineages XBB and BQ.1 in Mexico, considering multiple vaccinations, booster dose, waning immunity and cross-immunity[J]. Electronic Research Archive, 2024, 32(2): 1082-1125. doi: 10.3934/era.2024053

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Abstract

In a population with ongoing vaccinations, the trajectory of a pandemic is determined by how the virus spreads in the unvaccinated, vaccinated without boosters, and vaccinated with boosters, which will exhibit distinct transmission dynamics based on different levels of natural and vaccine-induced immunity. We found that enhancing the use of face masks in a partially vaccinated population is associated with a reduction of new infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. We highly recommend the use of a face mask with at least a 50% efficiency, such as improved cloth and surgical face masks, due to its effectivity and cost ratio. Our simulations indicated that there may be two upcoming Omicron waves (in the last months of 2022 and in May 2023). The magnitude of these waves will be 75% and 40% lower than their prior wave. Moreover, the size of these waves is heavily influenced by immunity parameters like waning immunity and cross-immunity protection. Hence, we recommend continuing the use of face masks to decrease transmission because we are not developing sterilizing immunity if we get infected by a prior sublineage, meaning that we can still get infected regardless of the acquired immunity.

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