Climate change and potential distribution of potato (<i>Solanum tuberosum</i>) crop cultivation in Pakistan using Maxent

Tayyaba Khalil; Saeed A. Asad; Nusaiba Khubaib; Ayesha Baig; Salman Atif; Muhammad Umar; Jürgen P. Kropp; Prajal Pradhan; Sofia Baig; Tayyaba Khalil; Saeed A. Asad; Nusaiba Khubaib; Ayesha Baig; Salman Atif; Muhammad Umar; Jürgen P. Kropp; Prajal Pradhan; Sofia Baig

doi:10.3934/agrfood.2021039

AIMS Agriculture and Food

2021, Volume 6, Issue 2: 663-676. doi: 10.3934/agrfood.2021039

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Research article

Climate change and potential distribution of potato (Solanum tuberosum) crop cultivation in Pakistan using Maxent

1.
Institute of Environmental Sciences and Engineering (IESE), National University of Sciences and Technology, H-12 sector, Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan
2.
Centre for Climate Change Research and Development (CCRD), COMSATS University, Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan
3.
Biotechnology Department, COMSATS University Islamabad, Abbottabad Campus, Abbottabad, KPK, 22060, Pakistan
4.
Institute of Geographic Information System (IGIS), National University of Sciences and Technology, H-12 sector, Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan
5.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany

Received: 30 November 2020 Accepted: 16 April 2021 Published: 28 May 2021

The impacts of climate change are projected to become more intense and frequent. One of the indirect impacts of climate change is food insecurity. Agriculture in Pakistan, measured fourth best in the world, is already experiencing visible adverse impacts of climate change. Among many other food sources, potato crop remains one of the food security crops for developing nations. Potatoes are widely cultivated in Pakistan. To assess the impact of climate change on potato crop in Pakistan, it is imperative to analyze its distribution under future climate change scenarios using Species Distribution Models (SDMs). Maximum Entropy Model is used in this study to predict the spatial distribution of Potato in 2070 using two CMIP5 models for two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). 19 Bioclimatic variables are incorporated along with other contributing variables like soil type, elevation and irrigation. The results indicate slight decrease in the suitable area for potato growth in RCP 4.5 and drastic decrease in suitable area in RCP 8.5 for both models. The performance evaluation of the model is based on AUC. AUC value of 0.85 suggests the fitness of the model and thus, it is applicable to predict the suitable climate for potato production in Pakistan. Sustainable potato cultivation is needed to increase productivity in developing countries while promoting better resource management and optimization.
- climate change,
- food security,
- Maxent,
- Solanum tuberosum,
- species distribution modeling
Citation: Tayyaba Khalil, Saeed A. Asad, Nusaiba Khubaib, Ayesha Baig, Salman Atif, Muhammad Umar, Jürgen P. Kropp, Prajal Pradhan, Sofia Baig. Climate change and potential distribution of potato (Solanum tuberosum) crop cultivation in Pakistan using Maxent[J]. AIMS Agriculture and Food, 2021, 6(2): 663-676. doi: 10.3934/agrfood.2021039

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Abstract

The impacts of climate change are projected to become more intense and frequent. One of the indirect impacts of climate change is food insecurity. Agriculture in Pakistan, measured fourth best in the world, is already experiencing visible adverse impacts of climate change. Among many other food sources, potato crop remains one of the food security crops for developing nations. Potatoes are widely cultivated in Pakistan. To assess the impact of climate change on potato crop in Pakistan, it is imperative to analyze its distribution under future climate change scenarios using Species Distribution Models (SDMs). Maximum Entropy Model is used in this study to predict the spatial distribution of Potato in 2070 using two CMIP5 models for two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). 19 Bioclimatic variables are incorporated along with other contributing variables like soil type, elevation and irrigation. The results indicate slight decrease in the suitable area for potato growth in RCP 4.5 and drastic decrease in suitable area in RCP 8.5 for both models. The performance evaluation of the model is based on AUC. AUC value of 0.85 suggests the fitness of the model and thus, it is applicable to predict the suitable climate for potato production in Pakistan. Sustainable potato cultivation is needed to increase productivity in developing countries while promoting better resource management and optimization.

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