Dynamics of stability of the world economic system

Anatoly A. Kilyachkov; Larisa A. Chaldaeva; Nikolai A. Kilyachkov; Anatoly A. Kilyachkov; Larisa A. Chaldaeva; Nikolai A. Kilyachkov

doi:10.3934/DSFE.2023006

Data Science in Finance and Economics

2023, Volume 3, Issue 1: 101-111. doi: 10.3934/DSFE.2023006

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Research article Special Issues

Dynamics of stability of the world economic system

1.
Security Problems Studies Centre of the Russian Academy of Science, 21b, st. Garibaldi, 117335, Moscow, Russia
2.
Independent expert, Moscow, Russia
3.
JSC QIWI, Moscow, Russia

Received: 29 January 2023 Revised: 20 March 2023 Accepted: 26 March 2023 Published: 29 March 2023
JEL Codes: C51, C53, C62, C65, E32, E37

The current global economic crisis has actualized the problem of studying non-equilibrium processes in the economy. To approach the problem, a discrete dynamic model (DDM) was developed that describes the dynamics of the rate of change in the global GDP for the period 1961-2021. This paper publishes the results of studies of two types of stability. The first is connected with the global economic system stability, which can be described by a DDM in different time periods. The second studies sensitivity of the DDM to the annual GDP growth values that were used to construct it (sensitivity analysis). The conducted research depicted the various periods of development of the global economic system, characterized by varying degrees of stability. The DDM determined that during periods of crises, the stability of the global economic system decreases. Our studies have shown that at present the world economic system is on the verge of a complete loss of stability. To assess the sensitivity of the DDM to the input data, a sensitivity indicator was introduced. It was found that the DDM is insensitive to input data during periods of crisis, i.e., the results obtained are reliable. In turn, periods of stable development of the global economic system are characterized by less reliability in the DDM results.
- discrete dynamic model,
- world GDP growth rate,
- stability of the global economic system,
- sensitivity to variability of initial data
Citation: Anatoly A. Kilyachkov, Larisa A. Chaldaeva, Nikolai A. Kilyachkov. Dynamics of stability of the world economic system[J]. Data Science in Finance and Economics, 2023, 3(1): 101-111. doi: 10.3934/DSFE.2023006

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Abstract

The current global economic crisis has actualized the problem of studying non-equilibrium processes in the economy. To approach the problem, a discrete dynamic model (DDM) was developed that describes the dynamics of the rate of change in the global GDP for the period 1961-2021. This paper publishes the results of studies of two types of stability. The first is connected with the global economic system stability, which can be described by a DDM in different time periods. The second studies sensitivity of the DDM to the annual GDP growth values that were used to construct it (sensitivity analysis). The conducted research depicted the various periods of development of the global economic system, characterized by varying degrees of stability. The DDM determined that during periods of crises, the stability of the global economic system decreases. Our studies have shown that at present the world economic system is on the verge of a complete loss of stability. To assess the sensitivity of the DDM to the input data, a sensitivity indicator was introduced. It was found that the DDM is insensitive to input data during periods of crisis, i.e., the results obtained are reliable. In turn, periods of stable development of the global economic system are characterized by less reliability in the DDM results.

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