Transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Algeria: The impact of physical distancing and face masks

Ali Moussaoui; El Hadi Zerga; Ali Moussaoui; El Hadi Zerga

doi:10.3934/publichealth.2020063

AIMS Public Health

2020, Volume 7, Issue 4: 816-827. doi: 10.3934/publichealth.2020063

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Transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Algeria: The impact of physical distancing and face masks

Ali Moussaoui ^,,
El Hadi Zerga

Laboratoire d'Analyse Non linéaire et Mathématiques Appliquées, Department of Mathematics, University of Tlemcen, Algeria

Received: 15 September 2020 Accepted: 27 October 2020 Published: 30 October 2020

We propose an SIR epidemic model taking into account prevention measures against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) such as wearing masks and respecting safety distances. We look for the conditions to avoid a second epidemic peak in the phase of release from confinement. We derive equations for the critical levels of mask efficiency, mask adoption (fraction of population wearing masks) and fraction of population engaging in physical distancing that lower the basic reproduction number ℜ₀ to unity. Conclusions: For ℜ₀ = 2.5, if at least 40% of people wear masks with efficiency 50%, and at least 20% of the population without masks (or anti-maskers) respect physical distancing measures, the effective reproduction number can be reduced to less than 1 and COVID-19 infections would plummet. The model predicts also that if at least half of the people respecting physical distancing, COVID-19 outbreaks with ℜ₀ of about 3, would be theoretically extinguished without wearing masks. The results of this study provide an alternative explanation for the spread of the disease, and suggest some valuable policy recommendations about the control strategies applied to mitigate disease transmission.
- COVID-19,
- SIR compartmental model,
- basic reproduction number,
- mask protection,
- social distancing
Citation: Ali Moussaoui, El Hadi Zerga. Transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Algeria: The impact of physical distancing and face masks[J]. AIMS Public Health, 2020, 7(4): 816-827. doi: 10.3934/publichealth.2020063

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Abstract

We propose an SIR epidemic model taking into account prevention measures against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) such as wearing masks and respecting safety distances. We look for the conditions to avoid a second epidemic peak in the phase of release from confinement. We derive equations for the critical levels of mask efficiency, mask adoption (fraction of population wearing masks) and fraction of population engaging in physical distancing that lower the basic reproduction number ℜ₀ to unity. Conclusions: For ℜ₀ = 2.5, if at least 40% of people wear masks with efficiency 50%, and at least 20% of the population without masks (or anti-maskers) respect physical distancing measures, the effective reproduction number can be reduced to less than 1 and COVID-19 infections would plummet. The model predicts also that if at least half of the people respecting physical distancing, COVID-19 outbreaks with ℜ₀ of about 3, would be theoretically extinguished without wearing masks. The results of this study provide an alternative explanation for the spread of the disease, and suggest some valuable policy recommendations about the control strategies applied to mitigate disease transmission.

Acknowledgments

This research was supported by the Algerian General Directorate for Scientific Research and Technological Development (DGRSDT).

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

References

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